Archive for Closers

Sometimes, the best part about trading season is less about the additions some clubs make than it is about the new roles of those left behind. In fantasy baseball, that’s rarely more relevant than it is in the bullpen, where the “save” can suddenly make barely-notable middle relievers valuable properties, simply because they’ll be pitching now in the ninth rather than the seventh or eighth.

While we could see closers move in a few places, the most likely spot to see this happen this year is going to be in Chicago, where Kevin Gregg is 35, a free-agent-to-be, having a surprisingly good season, and absolutely not going to be with the Cubs the next time they’re any good. Dale Sveum’s club has already gone through three closers this year — first Carlos Marmol before he was demoted and traded, then Kyuji Fujikawa before he got hurt, now Gregg — and it seems more likely than not that they’ll end up with at least one more before the season is out.

So… who’s it going to be? Read the rest of this entry »

There might not be any games but the Bullpen Report keeps going!

• Ron Harper showed a solid cutter pitching to his son Bryce in the Home Run Derby and there is some chatter that the Cubs might give him a look if/when Kevin Gregg is moved at the deadline.  Additionally, Jose Cano showed some velocity and although he last pitched in 1989 for the Astros, there were whispers at Citi Field that a return to Houston is imminent for Robinson Cano’s father.

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It is often said that closers are made, not born. Any experienced baseball fan knows this; it seems that for every Huston Street type who arrives with hype, four or five Jason Grillis, Andrew Baileys, or John Axfords slip into dominance after finding dead-ends in other roles. As such, predicting who will ascend to MLB closer roles (beyond the obvious “the best MLB non-closer relief pitchers”) is often a fool’s errand.

This becomes even more difficult when one attempts to find future closers in the minor leagues. Many of the pitchers who end up closing MLB games were starters all through their minor league careers, but it’s tough to project a minor league starter as a closer outright–in doing so, one is essentially saying “This pitcher will fail badly at the role he’s currently in and subsequently find tremendous success in a role he’s never pitched in.” Certainly plausible, but not something that seems like it can be said with much confidence. And minor league relievers–well, they’re equally problematic to forecast. After all, if a pitcher has a big future, why isn’t he able to crack a minor league rotation?

It’s certainly possible to envision any number of minor leaguers closing out ballgames–as so many sabermetricians are fond of saying, the role of garnering save totals can be accomplished reasonably effectively by any number of players, and the minor leagues have no shortage of interesting power pitchers that could fit a closer profile if things go their way. However, it’s quite another thing to actually predict that a minor league pitcher will end up amassing saves in the big leagues.

I think White Sox pitching prospect Daniel Webb merits such a prediction, though.

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• It’s not the highest endorsement one could receive from their manager but if/when Kevin Gregg is traded, the Cubs could turn to Blake Parker as a replacement. Blake Parker is a rookie but he’s on the older side at 27 years old and with a 2.25/2.82/4.03 ERA/FIP/xFIP line, Parker’s deserving for the ninth inning even if he’s only thrown 16 innings thus far. Parker doesn’t have a fastball in the upper nineties but he’s still been able to generate a lot of whiffs with a 12.7% SwStr% leading to a solid 9 K/9 while exhibiting enough control (2.81 BB/9). Parker has shown an ability to miss bats throughout his minor league career but his control has held him back. If he’s able to maintain his walk rate like he has this season he should have continued success, if not, the Cubs might have to look elsewhere.

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• Joe Nathan is on quite a tear at the moment after pitching a perfect ninth picking up two Ks along the way tonight for his 30th save of the year, sharing the league lead with the one and only Jim Johnson. Nathan lowered his ERA to 1.40 and hasn’t given up a run in his last eleven appearances, striking out 14 batters in those 11.1 innings. Nathan’s strikeouts have dipped a little this year (9.53 K/9) compared to last (10.91) K/9 but since posting a particularly low rate in April (7.30 K/9), he’s upped it in each subsequent month. Nathan might not finish 2013 with an ERA starting with a one, but he’s still a top option for saves both in real life and our fantasies.

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Apologies for the belated and brief BR this evening morning.

• Mariano Rivera recorded a one-out save, his 27th of the year. In more interesting news, the Twins gave Mo a the “Chair of Broken Dreams” as he played his final game in Minnesota in his swan song year.

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Two oft-injured pitchers are struggling with performance right now, and have already seen the disabled list this season. And yet they have enough upside to remain on rosters. When they’re right, they are top-half closers. Right now, too much looks wrong.

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Welcome to July and the halfway point of the season! Now is the time to see how much ground you can gain in saves and holds as we inch closer to both the MLB trading deadline and your league specific deadline. A few bullpen situations are sure to change and we’ll provide the latest and greatest rumors so you can snag that next-in-line closer before the current one is moved.

• Koji Uehara blew his first save as the anointed Red Sox closer last night but was actually fortunate enough to receive the win. The last time the Sox made a closer switch, Junichi Tazawa was named closer but the Sox are now going with Uehara. I don’t think the Red Sox will be so fickle as to remove Uehara because of a rough outing or two, especially since he’s pitching to a 2.58 xFIP. However, considering the Sox gave him the first chance and the fact Uehara might receive a few more days off than a normal closer to keep him fresh, Tazawa should remained owned in fantasy leagues. Even if he wasn’t going to sniff the ninth inning Tazawa is worthwhile of a roster spot with a 2.94 xFIP, a 9.73 K/9 and the third best strikeout to walk ratio among all relievers.

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• The Carlos Marmol saga in Chicago comes to an end as he was designated for assignment today. The Cubs now have 10 days to trade Marmol, but considering they’ve been trying that for parts of two or more seasons, I don’t think that’s a possibility. Carlos Marmol has been the Adam Dunn of pitching with a fantastic 29.8% career K% but with all those swings and misses were the bases on balls of course (15.5% BB%). For a brief stretch Marmol was one of the better fantasy closers in the game. Although his ERA and WHIP were never elite, he struck out 138 batters in 2010 with a 2.55 ERA. Marmol slipped since then and has never reached that peak, bottoming out in 2013 with a 5.86 ERA and 6.16 FIP. If someone else picks him up, it should at least be intriguing watching him the feast or famine from Marmol.

It’s strange to say, but Kevin Gregg’s cemented as the Cubs closer (until he gets traded) and behind him to see the late innings is James Russell, as well as Blake Parker . James Russell has been solid all season although he’s struggled against right-handed hitting with .346 wOBA against them thus far. Blake Parker’s only thrown 9.2 innings this year but he’s been effective with a 3.16 xFIP and a 10.24 K/9. There is trade interest in Kevin Gregg as we mentioned and if he’s gone, Parker is someone to keep an eye on for potential saves.

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• Joe Nathan is having a fine 2013. After picking up save number 25 last night he’s now supporting a 2.90 FIP. Nathan gives up a lot of fly balls (47.6% FB%) and he’s running a little hot with so few of them going over the fence (3.80 xFIP)  but he’s a solid reliever who will give you about a strikeout per inning on one of the better teams in the league. Behind Nathan in the Texas bullpen has been Tanner Scheppers but that soon may change with Joakim Soria on a rehab assignment, scheduled to return around the All-Star break. Soria last pitched in 2011 on the Royals and if he can find some of his former mojo, he and Nathan could form one of the premier set up and closer combos in the game.

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