The Pittsburgh Pirates have gone all in on Mark Melancon’s rebound. After a disastrous season with the Boston Red Sox, Melancon has returned to form. With Jason Grilli currently on the disabled list with a forearm injury, Melancon will be relied upon as the team’s closer. Due to Melancon’s failures last season, he developed a reputation as a pitcher who can’t handle pressure-packed situations. He should have no trouble dispelling that notion this season.
• We still don’t know the extent of Jason Grilli’s injury and even though some of the early signs have been encouraging, he’s been placed on the 15-day DL. As we mentioned last night, Mark Melancon will take over as closer and it should be fun to watch Melancon take his 0.95/1.78/2.21 ERA/FIP/xFIP line from the eighth inning to the ninth. I’ve long agreed with Aaron Gleeman’s premise that “closing is a rollrole, not a skill” and Melancon owners should fully expect him to continue his great season just with saves instead of holds. As we find out more information on how much time Grilli is expected to miss we will be sure to inform you here. In the meantime, Melancon pitched a scoreless ninth today, something we might be saying a few more times here on out.
Apologies for interrupting your Ryan Braun coverage but here is tonight’s Bullpen Report.
• In the midst of one of the worst outings of the season, Jason Grilli had to exit tonight’s game with his pitching arm in pain. Grilli certainly looked uncomfortable and left the game without even throwing a warm up/test pitch. We don’t know of any specifics as to the severity of the injury at the moment, but for the sake of all Pirates fans and Grilli owners, let’s hope it’s nothing major. Fellow all-star Mark Melancon should fill in if Grilli were to miss time. With a 0.97/1.75/2.20 ERA/FIP/xFIP line, Melancon should make for a solid option and should be picked up immediately in most, if not all, leagues.
Time to rank the closers!
Again, we’re going to the bullpen report guys to do the rankings — Alan Harrison, Ben Pasinkoff and Colin Zarzycki at your service.
Take a good look now, because any minute now things might change. The Brewers, Phillies, Mets, Astros, Marlins, Cubs, and Padres all look like they could sell a bullpen piece. Problem is, there are fewer identifiable buyers with that need. Detroit is obvious. Maybe the Braves could use a lefty. Maybe the Orioles would buy a closer. Maybe the Dodgers would trade for a reliever, Ned Colletti is crazy like that.
Sometimes, the best part about trading season is less about the additions some clubs make than it is about the new roles of those left behind. In fantasy baseball, that’s rarely more relevant than it is in the bullpen, where the “save” can suddenly make barely-notable middle relievers valuable properties, simply because they’ll be pitching now in the ninth rather than the seventh or eighth.
While we could see closers move in a few places, the most likely spot to see this happen this year is going to be in Chicago, where Kevin Gregg is 35, a free-agent-to-be, having a surprisingly good season, and absolutely not going to be with the Cubs the next time they’re any good. Dale Sveum’s club has already gone through three closers this year — first Carlos Marmol before he was demoted and traded, then Kyuji Fujikawa before he got hurt, now Gregg — and it seems more likely than not that they’ll end up with at least one more before the season is out.
So… who’s it going to be? Read the rest of this entry »
There might not be any games but the Bullpen Report keeps going!
• Ron Harper showed a solid cutter pitching to his son Bryce in the Home Run Derby and there is some chatter that the Cubs might give him a look if/when Kevin Gregg is moved at the deadline. Additionally, Jose Cano showed some velocity and although he last pitched in 1989 for the Astros, there were whispers at Citi Field that a return to Houston is imminent for Robinson Cano’s father.
It is often said that closers are made, not born. Any experienced baseball fan knows this; it seems that for every Huston Street type who arrives with hype, four or five Jason Grillis, Andrew Baileys, or John Axfords slip into dominance after finding dead-ends in other roles. As such, predicting who will ascend to MLB closer roles (beyond the obvious “the best MLB non-closer relief pitchers”) is often a fool’s errand.
This becomes even more difficult when one attempts to find future closers in the minor leagues. Many of the pitchers who end up closing MLB games were starters all through their minor league careers, but it’s tough to project a minor league starter as a closer outright–in doing so, one is essentially saying “This pitcher will fail badly at the role he’s currently in and subsequently find tremendous success in a role he’s never pitched in.” Certainly plausible, but not something that seems like it can be said with much confidence. And minor league relievers–well, they’re equally problematic to forecast. After all, if a pitcher has a big future, why isn’t he able to crack a minor league rotation?
It’s certainly possible to envision any number of minor leaguers closing out ballgames–as so many sabermetricians are fond of saying, the role of garnering save totals can be accomplished reasonably effectively by any number of players, and the minor leagues have no shortage of interesting power pitchers that could fit a closer profile if things go their way. However, it’s quite another thing to actually predict that a minor league pitcher will end up amassing saves in the big leagues.
I think White Sox pitching prospect Daniel Webb merits such a prediction, though.
• It’s not the highest endorsement one could receive from their manager but if/when Kevin Gregg is traded, the Cubs could turn to Blake Parker as a replacement. Blake Parker is a rookie but he’s on the older side at 27 years old and with a 2.25/2.82/4.03 ERA/FIP/xFIP line, Parker’s deserving for the ninth inning even if he’s only thrown 16 innings thus far. Parker doesn’t have a fastball in the upper nineties but he’s still been able to generate a lot of whiffs with a 12.7% SwStr% leading to a solid 9 K/9 while exhibiting enough control (2.81 BB/9). Parker has shown an ability to miss bats throughout his minor league career but his control has held him back. If he’s able to maintain his walk rate like he has this season he should have continued success, if not, the Cubs might have to look elsewhere.
• Joe Nathan is on quite a tear at the moment after pitching a perfect ninth picking up two Ks along the way tonight for his 30th save of the year, sharing the league lead with the one and only Jim Johnson. Nathan lowered his ERA to 1.40 and hasn’t given up a run in his last eleven appearances, striking out 14 batters in those 11.1 innings. Nathan’s strikeouts have dipped a little this year (9.53 K/9) compared to last (10.91) K/9 but since posting a particularly low rate in April (7.30 K/9), he’s upped it in each subsequent month. Nathan might not finish 2013 with an ERA starting with a one, but he’s still a top option for saves both in real life and our fantasies.
Apologies for the belated and brief BR this evening morning.
• Mariano Rivera recorded a one-out save, his 27th of the year. In more interesting news, the Twins gave Mo a the “Chair of Broken Dreams” as he played his final game in Minnesota in his swan song year.