Before the 2013 season, one of my 10 Bold Fantasy Predictions was that Sergio Santos would finish the season with more saves than Casey Janssen in the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen.

The final tally was razor-close, a 34-1 advantage for Janssen, with the Californian posting his third straight season with an ERA of 2.56 or lower. It was a very unsuccessful prediction.

But heading into 2014, I find myself wanting to double down on it and predict the former Blue Jays shortstop prospect to out-save the UCLA alum, even though the latter ranked 14th in relief pitcher value this season while the former didn’t crack the top-150. Am I just being really stubborn?
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By what we’ve learned over the last several year, we know that the closer’s role tends to be an extremely volatile position. Mental breakdowns, mechanical issues, whatever the case may be, we’ve seen numerous guys move in and out of the job on a variety of teams. However, there have also been some stalwarts; guys with strong job security that give you little reason to be concerned. More often than not, they notch the save and if they struggle, you never worry that they’re going to lose their job. Some of them are no-brainers, like what Mariano Rivera was. But others we’ve seen, no matter how poor they are pitching or how frail they may be (I’m looking at you Huston Street and Fernando Rodney), they still seem to stay right where they are. Maybe they lose an opportunity here and there, but if they’re healthy, they’ve always seemed to slide back into the job. So why, after 101 saves in the past two season….yes, that’s right, 101…does Jim Johnson get no love? Read the rest of this entry »

After the contract with Grant Balfour to be Jim Johnson’s replacement as the Orioles closer fell apart, Tommy Hunter stands out as the most obvious candidate to take over the job. The team is apparently no longer pursuing a free agent replacement, which means that Hunter should be given the first opportunity. So then the question becomes, can he hold onto the job all year?

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Steve Cishek was a top-ten reliever this year. Steve Cishek! He’s supposed to be selling seashells by the sea shore, and here he is providing valuable stats for a low cost. Provided what we know about relievers on bad teams, why were fantasy owners nervous about Cishek going into the season? And did the last 70 innings solve those problems? If so, why not take Steve Cishek as a top-tenner this year?

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We’re all well aware that Craig Kimbrel is really good. But allow me to give you a little refresher on his greatness.

He’s led all relievers on ESPN’s player rater in two of the last three years and was second in the year he didn’t top the list. Among qualified relievers in those three years he ranks second in ERA, first in xFIP and SIERA, first in saves, and first in strikeout rate. His strikeout rate is so elite that he also leads in K%-BB% despite having a walk rate that is only slightly above average. He’s a stud.

But is he good enough to transcend the “don’t pay for saves” mantra that was started by Matthew Berry and piggybacked on by countless fantasy writers? Read the rest of this entry »

After a strong performance as the Mariners closer in 2012, Tom Wilhelmsen opened the 2013 season in that same role for the Seattlers. Unfortunately, things didn’t go nearly as well this time around. After entering the month of June having allowed just 2 runs over 24.0 innings, it all unraveled from there. He battled control problems, issuing 9 walks in 10.2 innings, and lost his closer job temporarily. He regained his job in early July, but then lost it again for good a month later, before being demoted to Triple-A. With the team currently without their incumbent closer, a new man of the bullpen had to be anointed. Enter Danny Farquhar, otherwise known as “Lord” Farquhar, a nickname I lovingly assigned him.

@bulkner_chip @TheRealTAL Of course! And he is now to be known as Lord Farquhar.

— Mike Podhorzer (@MikePodhorzer) August 4, 2013

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The 2013 fantasy baseball season has come to a close, so it is time to look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. This week focuses on relief pitchers.

The players were ranked based on their 2013 production, using the evaluation system explained and updated on this site some time ago. To keep things manageable and avoid skewing the numbers, players were only considered if they amassed 40 innings over the course of the year. The replacement level was also adjusted to account for players eligible at multiples positions. The valuations are built for $260 budgets and traditional 5×5 roto fantasy leagues, where only one catcher is started.

One important thing to note is the premium (or lack thereof) placed on the position a player occupies in your lineup. For example, while a first baseman may be able to accumulate superior overall numbers, the availability of such production lower in the rankings severely dampers the amount the player was worth.

These rankings are meant to reflect a player’s value should he have occupied this spot in your lineup for the entire year. So, a player who missed time due to injury but put up great numbers during his time on the field would be worth less.

With all this in mind, here are your rankings. Read the rest of this entry »

Grant Balfour has never called a hitter-friendly stadium home. He’s about to, since he signed a two-year deal to ostensibly be the closer in Baltimore. Will it matter?

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No team gave up as many runs in the seventh inning or later last postseason, and so one offseason goal was clear for the Tigers: improve the bullpen. So the Tigers started at the back end of the bullpen and are finalizing the details for a two-year contract with Joe Nathan. They had the money because of recent cost-saving measures, and they had the need, and the contract isn’t long. What’s the prognosis for Nathan over the next two years?

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While my array of fantasy baseball teams benefited from the likes of MVP candidates such as Chris Davis, Mike Trout, Jose Fernandez and Paul Goldschmidt, I am going to buck the trend and hand over the MVP honors to Kansas City Royals closer Greg Holland. The debate over the value of a closer is a recurring hot-button issue and, obviously, I sit on the side of the fence that preaches their importance. But even those who like to dismiss the position can’t deny how tremendous a value Holland was to those who owned him this year. Read the rest of this entry »