A couple of weeks ago, I investigated Justin Verlander’s resurgence. I found reasons to validate his hot streak but turned up additional question marks along the way.

One of them was his zone contact rate (Z-Contact%). At 79.7 percent, it would have been the second-lowest of his career by several percentage points (despite not performing “at peak”). However, I realize now, unfortunately, that I must have encountered a glitch in the leaderboards — his Z-Contact% as of August 21 (because the post, despite running the same day as his Aug. 26 start, was published prior to it) was 85.7 percent.

Regardless, it got me thinking what affects a pitcher’s zone contact rate because it correlates very strongly with strikeout rate (R-squared = .594). User DoubleJ speculated about the metric via comment on one of last week’s posts:

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• Rough night for the Nationals pen against the Mets. With a six run lead in the seventh, Blake Treinen, Felipe Rivero and Drew Storen walked six batters, allowing six earned runs to blow the lead. In the next inning Jonathan Papelbon gave up the go-ahead homer to Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Jeurys Familia wasn’t perfect allowing a few baserunners but held on for his 38th save of the season. The Mets have done a nice job with their in-season additions this year and it’s no different with the bullpen where Addison Reed (two strikeouts in a scoreless seventh) and Tyler Clippard (two strikeouts in a perfect eighth) have helped strengthen the bridge to Jeurys.

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A quick rundown of the early games as we head into September.

• With Brad Ziegler in need of rest after a rough outing on Monday, the Diamondbacks went to Dan Hudson for the save against the Rockies. After two hits, two strikeouts and an earned run, Hudson netted his third save of the year. Ziegler’s worm killing ways (73% GB%) are still first in line but Hudson has cemented his role in the pecking order if anything were to happen to Ziegler.

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• After a throw back performance by Bartolo Colon (8 shutout innings, nine strikeouts, and five baserunners) Jeurys Familia was called on for the save. Familia wasn’t sharp, allowing three baserunners and an earned run but otherwise escaped with a 3-1 lead and his 36th save. Familia’s ERA has jumped since the first half but he’s actually pitching better of late with a higher K% and lower B% than he had earlier this season. On the year he has a 1.78/2.83/2.64 ERA/FIP/xFIP line and should continue to rack up effective saves over the last few weeks of the season.

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• Non-closing news: It looks like Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler are seeing some late inning action in Atlanta. Detwiler has been less successful than Jackson while on the Braves and has been pitching worse than he was last year as a full time reliever. Jackson has been decent in his first go around strictly in relief, pitching to a 3.13/3.44/4.10 ERA/FIP/xFIP line. As expected his velocity has ticked up a bit to 94 mph and although his swinging strike rate has shown some improvement, he’s yet to see an increase in his strikeout rate. There could be some future improvement in that category assuming he stays out of the rotation. I wouldn’t expect much moving forward this season from Jackson but he could see the ninth if/when Arodys Vizcaino needs a day off and it wouldn’t shock me to see Jackson be more effective next year, with more repetition out of the pen.

Vincent Velasquez saw some time earlier this season out of the rotation and although he wasn’t amazing, he showed solid potential. He’s likely to enter the rotation again next year but for the rest of 2015 he could be used primarily out of the pen. Velazquez threw two innings with three strikeouts (and one earned run) against the Yankees tonight and teams looking for ratio help and strikeout totals could look his way. He’s likely to see multiple innings each appearance and outings like tonight could be more common in September.

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• After Junichi Tazawa’s rough night, he was given a day off but is expected to stay as closer. Even with the words of encouragement from the interim manager, this situation is still red. I expect Tazawa to stay as closer and as Scott Lauber mentions, with Dave Dombrowski now on board the team might prefer for Tazawa to “to get the longest look” given his track record of success setting up Koji Uehara. Said another way, there’s just not many other options to choose from in Boston. Rebuilding the pen will be on Dombrowski’s agenda this offseason but for now it’s Tazawa. If he continues to falter, expect Jean Machi (who was called on tonight) to get the look.

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• Tommy Kahnle started off well closing in Colorado but after back to back putrid outings his job was on shaky ground. Today it seems like he’s lost the job. Walt Weiss had good things to say about former closer John Axford and it now looks like he’s reclaimed his familiar role in the ninth. This situation is still red on the grid below as Axford hasn’t pitched well or consistently well all year but nonetheless, it’s his job to lose.

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Before we start I just want to say that I spent the weekend in Cooperstown, New York for a bachelor party. If you’re a baseball nut, and I assume you are if you traffic these parts, I would highly recommend the location. While the Hall of Fame itself is obviously worth visiting, an entire town devoted to baseball is a site to see.

To the bullpens…

• It wasn’t in a save situation but Edward Mujica had another outing to forget on Sunday, allowing three earned runs off of two homers and five hits in only one inning. Mujica’s seasonal ERA has ballooned to 5.25 and he’s been pitching as bad on the A’s as he was with the Red Sox earlier this year. Pitching poorly in the fifth inning of a blowout game probably means that your days of closing are done. I have taken the liberty to remove Mujica from the grid all together. On the bright side of the A’s pen is that Sean Doolittle  is expected back “sometime on their next road trip that begins Aug. 24 in Seattle.” Given the competition, I would expect Doolittle to reclaim his ninth inning role immediately. Until then, Fernando Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz and/or Evan Scribner could see the next save chances but my guess is that it would be more fleeting.

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Our apologies on the delay but a few updates on the bullpens around the league:

• After hinting that Jean Machi would be closing for the Red Sox, it was Junichi Tazawa who received the save chance last night. Unfortunately for Tazawa owners he blew the save. This situation is red hot and according to Farrell now, Machi, Tazawa and Ryan Cook could all see save chances moving forward. At this point, all three are worth owning as the Red Sox sort out their back of the bullpen mess for the final two months. Tazawa  received last night’s chance due to matchups, and considering he blew it I’d go Machi over Cook and Tazawa for the next opportunity.

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• It was known that Koji Uehara wasn’t made of steal steel but it’s unexpected and unfortunate to see him fracture his wrist ending his season. The Red Sox expect Uehara to make a complete recovery, which would mean he will be the closer starting next year. However, while some Red Sox fans might have forgotten about 2015, fantasy owners are still on the grind. Junichi Tazawa should fill in for Uehara in the meantime. Normally I would make this situation yellow or even green as he’s an obvious replacement but he’s had a few bumps recently and John Farrell said that they wanted to limit Tazawa’s innings. Still, expect Tazawa to be the closer with Alexi Ogando and Jean Machi around in those situations where Tazawa is limited.

UPDATE: Ignore everything I just said as I missed the news that Jean Machi was named closer. This goes along with limits on Tazawa’s innings. Jean Machi had a nice run in SF but he’s been bad this year, put on waivers by the Giants and then claimed by Boston.He’s remained unimpressive on the Sox but saves are saves. Definitely pick up Machi  even though tamper your expectations as he hasn’t had the same results he did in 2013 and 2014.

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