Bullpen Report: August 18, 2015
• Tommy Kahnle started off well closing in Colorado but after back to back putrid outings his job was on shaky ground. Today it seems like he’s lost the job. Walt Weiss had good things to say about former closer John Axford and it now looks like he’s reclaimed his familiar role in the ninth. This situation is still red on the grid below as Axford hasn’t pitched well or consistently well all year but nonetheless, it’s his job to lose.
• Ken Giles had a slew of save opportunities last week but after not seeing any action since August 12th, he came on in the top of the ninth down by three to get some work in against the Blue Jays. As he does, Giles threw a scoreless inning with a strikeout. Giles’ control (3.63 BB/9) isn’t as dominant as it was last year (2.17 BB/9) but it’s still plenty good considering the whiffs he gets (69 in 52.1 innings pitched). There were some minor velocity concerns earlier this year but Giles has largely put that behind him and essentially has the same average fastball velocity as he showed last season. The Phillies are unlikely to be a good team next year but there will still be save opportunities and Giles should be in the top third of closing options entering 2016.
• The Blue Jays run of late has created more opportunities for Roberto Osuna, and it has enabled Osuna to make a name for himself. Osuna threw another scoreless inning for his 14th save this year, lowering his ERA to 1.98. It’s unlikely that Osuna will maintain a .244 BABIP and his HR/FB% is sure to increase as well but considering he’s still 20 years old with a 2.41 FIP, I would bet the over on Osuna being a solid closer moving forward.
• Quick Hits: It was largely due to an error in the field but Mark Melancon blew his second save of the year tonight against the Diamondbacks. It goes without say but Melancon’s job is more than secure even after tonight’s blip and a few other outings with earned runs in August. Carson Smith earned his 13th save as he continues to prevent Rodney from throwing arrows in the ninth. Andrew Miller was called on and nailed the four-out save (27). It should be all systems go here on out with the Yankees and Jays in the AL East race. This will be fun. Similarly, Tyler Clippard was also called on for the four-out save but after allowing a couple of base runners in the ninth the Mets turned to Jeurys Familia. It wasn’t pretty but after allowing a single and a couple of walks, Famila secured the W for the Metropolitans.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
Kahnle got absolutely wrecked tonight to seal that deal so that whole Rockies pen is a dumpster fire albeit at high altitude.
Boxberger’s control has seemingly been iffy but McGee also had a shaky outing today so assuming those roles are safe for now?
Kevin Jepsen Speculation, anyone?
Yeah, what’s up with Glen Perkins? Seems like he won’t be able to close at least temporarily, considering he’s flying back to Minnesota tomorrow for an MRI. Probably at least worth a mention. I’d bet Jepsen gets the first save chance too while Perkins is out (and he might be out for a while, depending on the results of the MRI).
I have been on the Trevor May bandwagon for a while, and before he was used in an abbreviated start on Friday, Moliter stated that May was their 8th inning guy. Fans are upset he’s not in the rotation, so I believe the Twins seriously do want to justify their move and have him only behind Perkins in the pen.
Yes, Jepsen has more experience, but I’d still put my money down on May here, if Perk is out for any deal of time. Of course I could be way off, but I follow the Twins pretty closely here.
Apparently, Moliter just said he expects to use Jepsen in the short term at closer:
https://twitter.com/RhettBollinger/status/634021040050544640
Published before some of this came out — Trevor May could be a long term answer but I’d lean Jepsen here.
I think it will be May. Molitor said as much before last nights game that if a Save chance would have come up, May would get first crack at it.
@Mike W.: Do you mind sourcing where Moliter said before last night’s game that if a save chance would have come up, May would get the first crack at it? Apparently he just said he’d just Jepsen at closer in the short term:
https://twitter.com/RhettBollinger/status/634021040050544640
Rodriguez (Oak) came into a tie game in the eighth and gave up 3 runs, followed by another walk before getting out of the inning. Oakland re-tied the game and Scribner came out. Abad came in with the game still tied in the 10th.
Since there was no possibility of a save, you normally see the home team bring on their closer in a tie game in the ninth. If they still had confidence in Rodriguez, they could have left him on, but they switched to Scribner. Considering he would have been warming up while Oakland tied it and could have gone ahead, it looks like Scribner is the favourite to close now.
Rodriguez really blew it but Oakland saved him by scoring an improbable 3 runs against Kershaw and a normally solid Dodgers bullpen.
Considering that Doolittle is maybe a week away and seems to have recovered velocity, this may all be moot next week.
I’m in the it will all be moot camp but it’s also true that the season can come down to one save or two to win a league. Rodriguez may have lost his chance at the next opp before Doolittle is back, Scrib or Pomeranz until then. Basically, this situation is horrid.
Eh, I’m not sure that guarantees Scrib will get the next save chance. Teams don’t ALWAYS use their current closer in the 9th situation with the game tied. Melvin could just be mixing it up for whatever reason. Given Fernando Rodriguez’ most recent struggles, I’d put my money on them giving Pomeranz the next shot at closing a game.
Him or Scribner. It’s less judging by last night’s usage and more that it’s only Scribner or Pomeranz that’s even left…
It should d be noted that melancons 2 runs were unearned due to plays by usually sure handed defenders Kang and Sean Rod. Not that it matters a whole lot but I thought I should point it out
I saw the highlight and Sean Rod’s error at first was a real hot shot. Then again, had he put his body in front of it he could have knocked it down and prevented at least one run from scoring.
I believe I mentioned the errors leading to it, maybe a little too unclear. Either way, Melancon has been terrific all year.
Trying to plan for my H2H playoffs in mid September. Pick one of the following 2 sets of closers to have for the scheduled games (shown). Be sure to take a close look at the schedule because I think strength
Papelbon 13 games (3@PHI, 4vMIA, 3vBAL, 3vPHI)
Rondon 13 games (3@MIN, 3vKC, 4vCHW, 3vMIN)
OR
Ramos 13 games (3@NYM, 4@WAS, 3vPHI, 3vATL)
Giles 12 games (3vWAS, 3@ATL, 3@MIA, 3@WAS)
Papelbon has the best schedule remaining but Rondon may not see another chance.
I’d lean #2.
5×5 Standard Roto redraft – think I’ll get more value out of Jepsen or Doolittle rest of season?