• Chris Sale can’t complain too much about his team’s bullpen with 14 wins on the season but David Robertson didn’t do him any favors last night. Entering the ninth with a 3-0 lead, Robertson allowed three base runners before Adam Lind capped it off with a walk off homer. After the outing, Robertson’s ERA/FIP/xFIP now stands at a pedestrian 4.14/3.53/4.15 with his career low 26.8% strikeout rate (although still above average) and his career high 12.8% walk rate being of some legitimate concern. I wouldn’t bet on Robertson to have a 4+ ERA all season and his job isn’t in danger but his spot among the elite relievers is certainly gone.

• As we all know, Aroldis Chapman throws hard. Last night he threw a pitch 105.1 mph and four pitches over 104 mph. However, the important thing over here at the Bullpen Report isn’t Chapman’s velocity but which jersey he will be throwing in a few weeks. There is a big “will they or won’t they” regarding the Yankees trading Andrew Miller but with Chapman being a free agent it’s highly likely that he is traded. All the usual suspects apply with Mark Feinsand noting that the Yankees were scouting the Indians Triple-A squad. With the Yankees ownership still holding on to a pipe dream of competing, specific deals and discussions haven’t been reported but they should start heating up very, very soon.

• After getting the win on Sunday, Francisco Rodriguez got the save last night, his 26th on the year. Early on this season Justin Wilson was a popular speculative add with K-Rod’s struggles but he’s been outstanding of late. Since June 1st, K-Rod has throw 15 innings with two earned runs and 16 strikeouts, holding batters to a .358 OPS against. On the year he’s supporting a 2.67/2.95/3.41 pitching line with a career high 52.3% groundball percentage. He’s no longer the flame thrower he was when he came up during the Angels World Series run but his ability to adjust as his velocity has fallen (88.8 mph this year) has really been something to watch. In his early years, K-Rod hardly ever threw a changeup and in 2016 he throws one 42% of the time. If any closer wants to extend their career with diminished velocity they would be smart to give K-Rod a ring, or at least text because nobody calls these days.

• Quick Hits: Wade Davis continued his return from the DL, only needing one out for his 20th save on the year. The Marlins successful season has really helped Ramos’ save totals as he now has 30 on the year, second in the league. Carlos Estevez nailed down his 6th save, and he’ll have to avoid trouble with Jake McGee and Adam Ottavino waiting in the wings.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

Arodys Vizcaino was placed on the 15-day DL with a right oblique injury, bringing us to a familiar name in Jim Johnson. Vizcaino had been struggling lately allowing runs in four of his last five appearances, which mostly took place before he sat out with an infection in his right elbow. Jim Johnson came into a tied game in the 9th tonight and gave up a run after throwing two wild pitches along with a walk and two hits. Johnson’s fastball average is the lowest it’s been since 2007 (92.7 MPH), but his strikeout rate is 20% which is a career high. His FIP (3.54) suggests he may be a good stopgap until Vizcaino comes back, but may have a few opportunities usurped. The article linked in the beginning notes that Mauricio Cabrera may get some opportunities, who is a 22 year old with a fastball averaging 100 MPH. The highest level he played prior to this was AA, where he had strong K numbers keeping his K% over 20 for the past couple of seasons, but also had higher walk rates. So far, in his small sample, he has pitched to more contact. Definitely has future closer potential and has two saves already, so watch him closely particularly if Johnson falters.

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The All-Star break is a time to furiously send trade offers before those bottom half teams check out, or at least try to entice them back to their computers for one last look at their teams so that they might help you improve yours. But we’re all in different types of leagues, so instead of a few mixed-league buy low players, I thought I would try to dream up some buy-low players for every situation. I won’t cover all of you, that’s impossible with the proliferation of fantasy baseball styles these days, but maybe I’ll cover more of you.

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All-Star Week is a time when most managers, guilty of familial neglect, take a break from fantasy baseball and reconnect with loved ones. But those managers lose. Because while they’re playing with their kids or gardening with their significant others, you’re scouring the waiver wire for cheap sources of saves and power. You’re welcome.

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Some injury related news today with relievers returning from and going to the Disabled List so let’s get started…

• Wade Davis “has a strain on the top of the forearm” and has been put on the DL. Apparently it’s a similar injury that Davis had in the playoffs last year that he pitched through.  A reoccurring injury is never a fun sign but considering he pitched threw it previously and with the break coming, it shouldn’t be too long before Davis is back. The Royals might go by a committee of sorts so I’ll place Herrera at the top for now given that he’s been the best for KC. However, Ned Yost seems to trust Soria so expect him to get a look as well. We’ll be sure to update the grid as this situation is likely fluid with both relievers likely to get a chance. Luke Hochevar moves onto the grid but isn’t expected to see the ninth.

• While Wade Davis went down, Alex Colome was recalled from the DL. Colome actually entered the game last night but in a non-save situation as he was just getting work in. He was effective throwing a scoreless inning giving up one hit and picking up a strikeout. I expect him to reclaim the ninth immediately with Xavier Cedeno and Erasmo Ramirez moving down a slot.

• In other returning news, Adam Ottavino is back from Tommy John and recorded an out last night. Ottavino will “will ease back into game action” for now but could see higher leverage innings very soon. Jake McGee’s return wasn’t enough to supplant Carlos Estevez, so there’s no guarantee that Ottavino would either. However, Estevez isn’t necessarily Mr. Reliable and if Weiss chooses to make a change, Jake McGee has some more competition.

• It was all bad timing for Ryan Buchter. Right when Rodney was traded he had just recently given up a five-spot and although he was still the presumed next-in-line, it looks like Brandon Maurer is the closer. Both Buchter and Maurer struggle with control but really know how to miss bats. On the season, Buchter’s performance is better but Maurer has come on of late as he’s allowed just one run in his last nine appearances throwing 8.2 innings with ten strikeouts against zero walks. This situation is still red and Maurer has never quite been consistently dominant in the pen but he’s the closer for now.

• He’s not closing but damn has Edwin Diaz been impressive. In just 15.1 innings in the majors Diaz has 29 strikeouts which leads to a 17.02 K/9 and a 42% strikeout rate. Neither number is sustainable but seemingly each year a few lights out flamethrowers come up and Diaz looks to be one of them. I currently have him third in the grid below but this can certainly change. Steve Cishek has been solid this season and is still under contract next year so unless he’s traded I would still expect Diaz to set up and not rack saves increasing his future arbitration cost. Until then however, enjoy his strikeouts and ratio help.

• Note that the first iteration of this post was dated 2017. While many of the situations will remain similar come next July, I was not trying to predict the future.

Closer Grid:

l

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

Good morning! Sorry I missed you all this weekend, so let’s get caught up on what went down. I won’t cover every save this weekend, but just the situations worth monitoring moving forward since there were a lot of saves.

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• As some brilliant readers pointed out last night, we likely had the grid wrong for Tampa Bay and boy was that poor timing as Alex Colome was placed on the DL with biceps tendinitis. According to Marc Topkin “the DL move is retroactive to June 19, and Colome said he hopes to be ready to pitch again when eligible on Monday.” That might be a bit optimistic but it doesn’t look like Colome’s stay on the DL will be particularly lengthy. As the readers noted, Erasmo Ramirez has struggled so expect Xavier Cedeno to get the first look at saves but this could be a committee of sorts with Danny Farquhar and Matt Andriese in the mix as well.

• One closer gets hurt and another is on the mend. We gave a quick update on Jonathan Papelbon last night and he said he felt great after his outing last night, likely only needing one more simulated game before being ready to go. I would feel free to activate Papelbon as he’s likely to pitch this weekend for Washington and should return to his familiar role in the ninth.

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In this week’s edition of Deep League Waiver Wire, we’re doin’ a little plumbin’. Got to plumb! Plumb the depths, the depths of hell 18 team leagues and deeper. If you’re in a 14, 15, or 16 team league, you might be wise to pass on these players or just add them to your watch list but for those in leagues with 18+ teams or extremely large benches, I hope these guys are available. If not, let me know and the next time I’ll plumb further.

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• Welp, it looks like Trevor Rosenthal has officially lost his job as closer. As for the possible replacements, Kevin Siegrist, Seung-hwan Oh and Jonathan Broxton have all been named. However, Derrick Goold suggests that Oh was warming up for the possible save last night and that he will get the “first crack” at the ninth. Accordingly, we have placed Oh as the closer in the grid below with Siegrist and Broxton behind him. I’ve added Rosenthal to the injured column, not that he’s injured but to keep him on our minds. I expect he’ll pitch in very low-leverage innings (he threw a scoreless inning allowing two hits and one strikeout down four runs in the ninth today) and if he’s able to turn it around it’s possible that he could reclaim the ninth inning.  That would also imply that Rosie is pitching well, something he hasn’t really done at all this year with a 7.88 BB/9 and ERA estimators above four.

As far as relievers are considered – it doesn’t get much better than Oh this year as he’s been the 5th most valuable reliever, has a top 15 strikeout rate, a walk rate just outside the top 20 and a K%-BB% of 29.5%, 7th best in the league. Whether or not Oh gets the majority of save chances in Rosenthal’s absence, he’s worth getting excited about and using a claim on immediately.

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Things have been tough for Trevor Rosenthal lately, to put it nicely. Tonight’s game certainly did not help the Cardinals confidence in him, as he blew a two-run lead in the 9th. Rosenthal didn’t retire a batter after giving up a lead-off double, a walk, and then a walk-off three run homer by Adam Lind to seal the deal. Rosenthal has blown four of his last seven opportunities, and has not thrown a clean full inning since June 9th. His ERA is now up to 5.63 after this latest appearance. For more on Rosenthal’s struggles, check out this article by Paul Swydan. Regarding the current situation in St. Louis, nothing has been said whether or not he will lose the closer role just yet, but if I owned him, I would be prepared for a change coming up soon.
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