• Andrew Miller threw two perfect frames Sunday but considering it was the seventh and eighth innings, I’m going to flip him and Cody Allen who saved the game (22) throwing a perfect inning of his own. It goes without say that Andrew Miller is still a must own and will continue to see save opportunities this season but Allen is deserving of the first spot on the grid at this time.
Friday was busy for relievers as Jim Johnson (10), Dellin Betances (4), Will Harris (12), David Robertson (28), Brandon Maurer (5), Sam Dyson (26), Ryan Madson (25), Tony Watson (5), and Zach Britton (36) all shook hands and earned saves on Friday. Transactions started to build up on Saturday, along with some saves so let’s get to those. Read the rest of this entry »
Apologies again on the belated BR but onto the news…
• A.J. Ramos had been struggling of late, particularly with his control (5.28 BB/9) but he’s been placed on the DL with a right finger fracture. Fernando Rodney will slide into the ninth inning for now, so kudos to anyone who held onto him after he was traded and then was mediocre on Florida. Behind Rodney we have Kyle Barraclough and Mike Dunn. However, Brian Ellington threw in the eighth inning last night and has a shiny ERA, he could enter the grid as well.
• In other injury news, Cam Bedrosian was placed on the DL with finger issues of his own. In his place we moved Fernando Salas to the closer spot. Salas has never been that effective of a reliever and he certainly hasn’t been this year with a 4.66/4.87/4.67 ERA/FIP/xFIP line and he shouldn’t have too long of a leash if he struggles. J.C. Ramirez and Deolis Guerra should be behind Salas if he falters and this could even end up a committee of sorts until Bedrosian is back up. Ramirez has seen higher leverage but I actually like Guerra more. He’s mostly famous for being part of the package the Mets sent to the Twins in the Johan Santana deal and although he’s flamed out as being an impact starter, he’s done well on the Angels this year. He doesn’t miss too many bats but has a 1.5% BB% in 35.2 innings this year and if Salas struggles he could see a save opportunity.
• Carlos Estevez blew his second save in a row last night after allowing three earned runs while only recording one out. Over his last two outings, Estevez has retired two batters while giving up seven runs in the process. His ERA now stands at 5.18, and while a 3.71/4.11 FIP/xFIP tell a slightly different story, Estevez was never considered the long term answer at closer in Colorado. Adam Ottavino on the other hand often was considered the future in the ninth, but his return from TJ and Estevez getting saves was in his way. After the game Walt Weiss said “I’m not going to be talking about roles after the game” but this author certainly will. I’m going to go ahead and make the change on the grid, putting Ottavino ahead of Estevez. While Weiss didn’t anoint a new closer, he didn’t really defend Estevez either. Ottavino was always the better pitcher and now that Estevez blew the last two saves in terrible fashion I’m going to assume Ottavino gets the next opportunity.
No major moves this weekend, so this will be a shorter Bullpen Report, along with a few minor adjustments to the grid.
Steve Cishek was placed on the DL on Thursday, which doesn’t shake up the closer’s role, but does impact who is next in line in Seattle. Both Drew Storen and Tom Wilhelmsen are currently next in line despite having difficult seasons, and probably shouldn’t be owned as insurance. Outside of giving up a run against Boston, Edwin Diaz has looked fantastic as he is closed all four opportunities since being made closer. He has been dominant all season with a ridiculous 17.38 K/9 and 2.48 BB/9, to go with his 1.86 ERA (1.75 FIP). The bridge to Diaz is shaky right now, but could be getting sturdier as Nick Vincent is on a rehab assignment. Vincent struggled with the long ball giving up 1.73 per 9, but has seen a nice boost in his K rate (26.6%) and BB rate (6.1%) from last year. Expect Vincent to move immediately into the chart once he returns from his rehab assignment. The second line will still be wide open and something I’m staying away from.
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• We mentioned Huston Street’s continued struggles yesterday and it looks like he’s found himself on the disabled list with “inflammation in his right knee.” Street has been the worst closer in baseball this year so it was either going to be an injury or demotion that removed him from the closing chair. In his place goes Cam Bedrosian who got his first career save last night striking out the side. On the year Bedrosian has a 0.90/1.88/2.72 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line, a groundball percentage of 50.5% and a 32.5% strikeout rate. Killing worms and missing bats is generally a great way to be successful as a pitcher and I went aggressive making the Angels situation green. Yes, Bedrosian is a first time closer but he’s far and away the best option and I feel his job is secure.
• Will Harris‘ recent struggles also caught up to him as Ken Giles has supplanted him as closer. I opened the door to this possibility last night but the Astros made the change before seeing another blown opportunity by Harris. Luke Gregerson has pitched great as well so I’m slotting him 2nd in line, behind Giles. The Astros paid a pretty penny for Giles last year and he will now earn his keep in the ninth as the Astros fight for the playoffs. Look past Giles’ 3.80 ERA and you will see he’s the same dominant pitcher he was on the Phillies – his strikeout rate is the 11th best among relievers, his K-BB% ranks 12th, and his 97 mph fastball is among the league leaders. With Bedrosian, Edwin Diaz and now Giles added to the ninth inning, along with the usual slate of dominating closers, we are in the midst of some of the most terrifying closers I’ve ever seen.
UPDATE: With Luke Gregerson on the DL that obviously changes things. Harris is second and Michael Feliz will be added to the grid.
• Speaking of Edwin Diaz, the new Seattle closer didn’t disappoint in his first action, pitching around a walk while striking out three batters for his first save of the year. Diaz is now up to 52 strikeouts in 26 innings pitched. You would think after a few years of Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances that we have seen it all but Diaz is taking it to another level. If anything Diaz has been unlucky in his batted ball profile and I don’t see how the Mariners will rationalize using Cishek again this year barring a collapse – I upgraded them to green.
• Quick hits: Yesterday was a solid day for new closers as Tyler Thornburg pitched a perfect ninth for his 3rd save on the year and Tony Watson secured his first save of the year for Pittsburgh. Zach Britton can’t pitch every day so Darren O’Day filled in getting four outs for his second save. After a brief DL stint he’s certainly back to his old bad self behind Britton. Rough debut for Will Smith in SF as he gave up two runs without finishing the inning. Sergio Romo wasn’t any better allowing three runs of his own. Hunter Strickland and Derek Law threw scoreless innings in the sixth and seventh innings respectively and could leapfrog Romo if he has another blip. Nobody can be perfect and Seung Oh blew a save – his job is still safe. Roberto Osuna had a day off and Jason Grilli pitched a perfect inning for second save, cementing his role as second in line in Toronto. It’s possible that Aaron Sanchez‘ move to the pen could change that but I think Grilli is safe.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
Yesterday was (obviously) deadline day and there was thankfully lots of action. I hope you enjoyed hitting refresh on your Twitter account as much as I did.
• Brewers GM David Stearns was very active, trading two of the three relievers that were rumored in trades in Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith. Jeremy Jeffress is heading to Texas, and while I don’t think he will supplant Sam Dyson right away I am going to make the Rangers situation yellow, showing some caution. There wasn’t anyone knocking on the door too loudly behind Dyson earlier but now there is Jeffress.
So many trades did happen, and yet it seems so little was accomplished. We’ll have more in-depth analysis as the days go forward, but I thought I’d do a quick touch on all the trades that have been confirmed so far. There were fantasy implications.
Apologies on the delayed Bullpen Report as the current author recovers from ACL surgery. But like Mariano Rivera I’ll be back soon and certainly be more prompt with publishing. On to the bullpens…
• We previously spoke in these parts about Jonathan Papelbon not looking like his old self and of late it looks like the wheels are coming off. Papelbon blew his third save last night after allowing four straight baserunners without recording an out. And this is after allowing four runs in his previous outing. On the season his ERA/FIP/xFIP stands at a very pedestrian 4.18/3.20/4.51. His fastball velocity is a career low at 90.9 mph and although his K/9 is slightly above last year’s mark his swinging strike rate is down. Dusty Baker said that Papelbon is still the closer but considering the Nationals were in Aroldis Chapman rumors before his recent slide, I expect the Nationals to make an upgrade in the pen moving Papelbon from the role.
• Jon Axford got work in the bottom of the ninth last night but there is no change in Oakland as Ryan Madson is still the closer. In days when he’s not available, Melvin will turn to Axford though and I’ve put him second in line on the grid below.
• I think Andrew Miller is pretty good at this relieving thing whether it’s closing or not as he pitched around one hit for his ninth save of the year and his second since Aroldis Chapman was traded. The Yankees brass has still refused to go into “sell” mode so I think Miller’s job is still relatively safe. Also, although he would accept a setup role if traded, Miller would be the best reliever on any team he would be moved to which keeps his chances of getting saves pretty high. Dellin Betances remains the elite setup man in baseball and I would expect Chad Green or Adam Warren to possibly fill in Betances’ old spot. Both pitchers can be starters or long men but I put Green on the grid as he’s been light’s out in relief with a 2.08 FIP in that role. Warren struggled a bit this year for the Cubs so I would expect the Yankees to use him more for multiple innings where he succeeded last year for the Yanks.
• While everyone reloads their Twitter feed for sexy rumors regarding Andrew Miller or Wade Davis, the Blue Jays and Mariners made a small reliever swap with Joaquin Benoit heading to Toronto for Drew Storen. Edwin Diaz and his ridiculous 44.9% stirkeout rate moves behind Cishek with Tom Wilhelmsen stepping onto the grid. Meanwhile in Toronto, Benoit will set up Roberto Osuna along with Jason Grilli. The Mariners are hoping a “change of scenery” helps Storen and if it does, he could find his way back in the fold.
• Jim Johnson isn’t any good but he’s still closing in Atlanta and recorded his third save last night. Chris Withrow actually threw in the eighth inning and has been pretty good of late so I added him to the grid. Johnson may not be long for the ninth for much longer but I sitll have Withrow behind Mauricio Cabrera and his heater.
Rumor Roundup: The Nationals missed on Aroldis but still need an upgrade with Andrew Miller, David Robertson and Wade Davis mentioned. Miller and Davis have reasonable contracts moving forward and should fetch a bigger haul than Aroldis which is probably keeping them from being moved at the moment. Robertson could be had but he’s struggled a bit this year with his worst peripherals of his career and an ERA over 4. The Brewers trifecta of relievers – Will Smith, Jeremy Jeffress and Tyler Thornburg remain on the block as well. One has to also figure the Rays would release Alex Colome once they saw the price tag on Chapman. The Nationals figure to be the main team who could make a move quick but other than that there is no trade on the cusp of being completed.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
Washington is said to be looking to make a move for another major bullpen arm. Wade Davis is one name they are looking at, and Aroldis Chapman is another guy they have inquired about. No deal is imminent at this point, but you may need to start thinking about and potentially acting on the implications of one of these guys going to Washington. Would the Nationals move Papelbon out of the closer’s role? Even though he has posted a 2.64 ERA and 2.94 FIP, it’s hard to argue he deserves a higher leverage role than a Davis or Chapman. Papelbon has a lower HR/FB% (5.3%) and GB% (36.8%) than his career norms, which would concern me as a Papelbon owner. Papelbon is also known to be territorial about his closer’s role, so that is also a scenario to monitor if the Nationals do acquire a big arm for the bullpen. Trading Chapman would move Andrew Miller into the closer’s role, who should be owned in most leagues, whereas Davis’ trade would give Kelvin Herrera a nice hold on the job, especially after Joakim Soria had another rough outing tonight.
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