Brad Johnson: Ahoy there. Let’s get rolling.

jd: Are Corey Seagers injury concerns creating a huge value opportunity with his ADP around 40? He seems to be healthy and was raking before his injuries surfaced in 2017. Is there much a of a difference between seager and correa (ADP around 14) to justify this gap?

Brad Johnson: Valuing “injuries” is one of the highest risk/reward propositions in fantasy sports. I’m often eager to bet on players with perceived health issues.

Brad Johnson: Typically, the ADP penalty exceeds the actual risk of the injury. In the case of Seager, I’m not sure that’s true.

Brad Johnson: It’s not a good sign that the elbow is STILL an issue after an entire offseason.

Brad Johnson: I’m not comfortable expecting more than a repeat of his 2017 numbers, and those firmly belong around pick 35. I usually see him go pick 30 or earlier.

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all! We’re getting closer and closer to the regular season!

Larry: Bauer at 47 for you? What’s your hesitation?

Paul Sporer: He’s in the glob so he can reasonably go as high as the 30s, but I’m just not super sold on him. Let’s get a sub-4.00 ERA season

Spring’s Sprung?: I asked Jeff this question earlier. Curious your take as well: Any pitchers stand out to you so far in spring as potential breakout guys? Last year we saw Morton and Jordan Montgomery. Anyone like that this year?  (He said Wade Miley)

Paul Sporer: I haven’t seen anything jump out just yet

Greg: You buying Luis Severino’s breakout?

Brad Johnson: Hey folks, we’ll get started in a few moments.

Matt Parrington: What was Byron Buxton’s WAR beyond the first decimal point?

Brad Johnson: Hey Louie, it was 9.

Bryzzohtani 🙁: Chris Davis or Logan Morrison? Pts league

Brad Johnson: With Davis a little banged up and possibly falling off a cliff, I’m leaning LoMo.

Brad Johnson: They’re both pretty similar assets – late round 30 HR options. Davis will likely have the better lineup role and closer to guaranteed play due to his terrible contract. I think LoMo is slightly more talented overall.

Paul Sporer: Poppin’ a quick 30 minute chat! Shorter questions have a better chance of being answered, let’s gooooo!!!

Buttz: Gotta go quick so you can watch that Twitch stream

Paul Sporer: ya damn right! and I had to hit the back doctor today so I’m on a tighter schedule

Twotimes: is ZiPS going to be available in the Auction Calc this year?

Paul Sporer: Yep, when it’s all released

Tom: Crazy to take two SP with my top two picks in a 5×5 OBP league? I pick eighth, seems to me ace caliber pitching is somewhat scarce here.

Paul Sporer: Baseball is finally back!!!

Tom: I have 5 picks between 7th and 19th in a redraft league with a small keeper feature (no one drafted top 70 can be kept). any strategic suggestions on how to tackle my first 5 picks?

Paul Sporer: Need a lot more context for any real answer, but just get the best players you can!

Jay: Can I win a 12 team H2H league with Carlos Martinez as my ace? Would like one of the big 4 but with all but Sale having some injury history (and heavy workloads) was thinking of spending more on hitters and trying to go for one really good arm and some steady/upside plays. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Not sure I’d say Sale has any substantial injury history. And Jeff Zimmerman has found that age, not workloads is the bigger concern. That said, you can win with C Mart as ace. It’d be great to get one of the big 4, but it’s not like only 4 teams have a chance to win bc of those pitchers… this isn’t the NBA!

M: Should I be worried if my top 3 pitchers are Morton, Keuchel, and Paxton in a 6×6 H2H league?  It seems like a pretty volatile group.

Brad Johnson: We’ll get started in a few minutes. I have to marinate some chicken first.

Brad Johnson: Ok, I’m here. That took longer than expected. Let’s dive in.

Dummy: Keep 4 OBP categories league. Definitely keeping Hoskins and Corey Seager. Have to choose two of Buxton, Knebel and Rivero. Go with the two closers?

Brad Johnson: I’m inclined to do Buxton and Rivero. Closers are poor long term assets while Buxton still isn’t that far from finding top 15 overall production.

Brad Johnson: So you could win long term this way

Brad Johnson: And you still have a top 5 closer to kick off your bullpen.

Paul Sporer: Let’s talk some baseball!  

Dusty: Thoughts on Twins prospect Wander Javier? Do you like his upside?

Paul Sporer: Oh hey, Dusty

John: As I’ve started immersing myself in fantasy baseball information, I’ve been surprised to see how low Matt Shoemaker is on everybody’s list. Is it simply the injury risk that has everyone down on him or more based on his talent? Also, would you keep him at $6 in an 11-team $260 AL-only league? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: It’s definitely the health piece. I think ranks are kinda punting on him until we see him in Spring. I had him 92nd, but I’ll quickly boost him up the list if we see him looking strong in ST

Lazzaro Da Fietta: What’s up with Wasserman and Puig? Does it usually take something significant for an agency to dump a client, especially a successful one approaching free agency in a couple of years?

Paul Sporer: Let’s talk some baseball!!

James: What do you make of Jose Martinez? Should he get a chance to be an everyday starter?

Paul Sporer: He smashes the ball and he’s penciled in at 1B right now. I think he’ll get a chance to show how legit ’17 was. I know the Statcast podcast hyped him recently, too.

Paul Sporer: https://www.mlb.com/news/jose-martinez-has-earned-playing-time-in-2018…

Dan: Did Eno make his announcement yet?

Paul Sporer: Who?

Brad Johnson: Hey folks

Brad Johnson: Looks like the post didn’t publish as scheduled, so I’ll wait a few minutes for people to join

Daniel Castro Fan Club: We are forever indebted for your words getting Daniel Castro signed yesterday! When Castro mashes, it will be in your honor.

Brad Johnson: That was a really weird thing about a weird thing – https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-weirdest-thing-that-is-happening…

Brad: You discounting hitters in chase field because of humidor talk?

Brad Johnson: A few like Chris Owings and Brandon Drury, but they were already in the end-game roster patch bin