As far as rookie seasons go, Ronny Paulino couldn’t have asked for much more back in 2006. The then-Pirate catcher batted .310/.360/.394 in 481 PA. He posted 2.6 Value Wins as a 25 year-old, and with fellow youngster Ryan Doumit seemingly always afflicted with one malady or another, his future job security looked solid in the Steel City.

Paulino’s line was batting average-fueled (.367 BABIP), but he had gradually shown more thump as he climbed the minor league ladder to the ‘Burgh. He slugged in the high-.400’s between AA Altoona and AAA Indianapolis over the 2004 and 2005 seasons, and at 6-2, 240, some hoped that the big-bodied backstop would learn to put more of a charge into the ball (fun fact: Paulino is the third-heaviest player to have 50% or more of his defensive innings come at catcher, per Baseball-Reference; Carlos Maldonado is first and Shanty Hogan is second).

Instead of building upon his initial success, Paulino turned in a very mild sophomore campaign in ’07. The bottom fell out of his batting average spike, and his wOBA declined from .330 to .309. Little changed in his plate discipline (he walked about 7% and whiffed near 17% in both seasons), but his BABIP fell to .297, and with it, his average (.263). He displayed a little more pop, but we’re speaking in very relative terms: his ISO increased from .084 to .127.

2008 saw Paulino fall completely out of favor with the Bucco organization. His commitment and conditioning were questioned, and he posted a wretched .260 wOBA in 130 PA. As Doumit was establishing himself as the long-term answer behind the dish (health permitting), Paulino was unceremoniously whisked away to AAA Indianapolis, where he at least took out his anger on International League hurlers (.306/.373/.550 in 126 PA) after recovering from a sprained right ankle.

Feeling that Paulino was no longer worth the trouble and a 40-man roster spot, the Pirates shipped the 27 year-old to the Phillies this past offseason in exchange for another tepid-hitting catcher, Jason Jaramillo. Paulino didn’t stay Philly property for long, however, as he was recently sent on his way to San Francisco (for Jack Taschner) only to be flipped to the catching-starved Marlins for pitching prospect Hector Correa.

Paulino will have a greater opportunity to soak up some playing time (and some sun) with the Marlins, who were planning on marching forward with John Baker. Baker possesses a dose of on-base ability and didn’t embarrass himself in limited play last season, but a platoon certainly suggests itself: Baker is a career .277/.350/.433 minor league hitter versus right-handers, with a patient-but-punchless .263/.356/.333 line versus southpaws.

Conversely, Paulino has licked lefties in the majors (.355/.417/.498) while floundering against righties (.252/.301/.343). The Dominican Republic native takes some truly painful AB’s versus northpaws: he’s easily baited into chasing the slider off the dish, which only compounds the plate coverage issues caused by his very open batting stance. According to his ESPN player page, Paulino hit .128 versus pitches thrown down and away last year.

With only Baker in his way and Florida’s prized catching prospect (Kyle Skipworth) in the nascent stages of his pro career, Ronny Paulino has the opportunity to re-establish himself as a guy capable of donning the tools of ignorance on a daily basis. However, he’s going to have to stop looking like a fish out of water versus right-handers if he wishes to become more than the lefty-bashing side of a platoon.

Victor Martinez was the top catcher on most draft boards prior to the 2008 season. He had an ADP of 29 following his 2007 season where he hit .301-25-114-78-0. Of course Martinez ended up a big disappointment, as he came down with first a hamstring problem and then an injured elbow.

Martinez ultimately needed surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. When he returned from the disabled list, he hit for disappointing power numbers the final two months of the season.

The mock draft crowd has knocked Martinez down quite a bit this year. He carries an ADP of 80, 51 spots lower than a season ago, and making him on average the fifth catcher off the board.

There have been no reports of problems with the elbow this Spring. Martinez has been a regular in Cleveland’s lineup. He has six extra-base hits, including three home runs, in 38 at-bats, which has led to a .579 slugging mark.

Now, 38 at-bats is not usually anything you want to make any judgments about and Spring Training stats are notoriously misleading. But in the particular case of Martinez, seeing him hit for power is definitely a good sign.

If Martinez can come anywhere close to his 2007 fantasy line, he will be a steal at his current ADP because of the value of those stats from a catcher. With the uncertainty surrounding Joe Mauer, fantasy owners would be wise to bump Martinez over the Twins backstop and put him on a par with Geovany Soto, who carries an ADP of 66.

The Houston Astros project to have a few black holes in their 2009 lineup. An Aaron Boone/Geoff Blum platoon of doom might make Astros fans long for the days of Ty Wigginton, and center fielder Michael Bourn racked up a mind-bending -21.6 batting runs in 2008. Add in an aging middle-infield combo, and it’s easy to see why PECOTA envisions just 703 runs scored for the ‘Stros, topping only the PETCO-penalized Padres and the offensively puny Giants.

Catcher was another source of angst for the club in 2008, as Houston backstops combined to post a sickly .201/.281/.289 line. Even by the modest standards of the position (the average MLB catcher hit .255/.324/.389), the Astros received precious little from long-time offensive cipher Brad Ausmus, minor league journeyman Humberto Quintero and busted prospect J.R. Towles.

Apparently unwilling to trust Towles with the everyday job following a very sour cup of coffee last season, the Astros have reportedly inked Ivan Rodriguez to a 1-year, $1.5 million deal with an additional $1.5M in possible incentives.

Long noted for an arm capable of launching projectiles into space, “Pudge” has seen his offensive production slide considerably since 2005. After compiling wOBA’s between .361 and .381 between 2002-2004, Rodriguez has followed up with marks of .312, .330, .306 and .317 from ’05 to ’08. The 37 year-old is just about the least patient hitter that you’re going to find (our plate discipline stats dating back to 2005 show Rodriguez swinging at 38.3% of pitches out of the zone), but he made up for it previously with a good deal of extra-base thump. That ability to drive the ball is in question at this point: I-Rod posted his lowest slugging percentage (.394) and Isolated Power (.118) since 1992.

There’s little risk in signing Pudge at such a discount rate- he’d need to produce less than one win above replacement to be worth his salary with the incentives. However, it’s not especially clear that Rodriguez constitutes a clear upgrade over the much-maligned Towles, at least at the plate:

CHONE:
I-Rod: .299 wOBA
Towles: .320 wOBA

PECOTA:
I-Rod: .263/.301/.364
Towles: .230/.301/.383

Towles was brutal in the majors last season (.235 wOBA in 171 PA), but his BABIP was an impossibly low .157. Short of having magnets placed on the ball and on the gloves of the defense, that’s not bloody likely to happen again. The 25 year-old has little star potential, but he is a career .302/.386/.476 hitter in the minors.

Rodriguez becomes a potential target in deeper leagues based on there just plain being few attractive options behind the dish, but keep Towles in mind in the event that he works his way back into the major league picture. He’s not great, but he’s nowhere near as bad as his ’08 big league train wreck would have you believe.

After a down season in his sophomore year in the majors in 2007, Brian McCann bounced back last year to be in the top four among catchers in AVG, HR, RBI and Runs. The projection systems predict McCann essentially to repeat his 2008 performance this year and the mock drafting crowd agrees, making McCann the second-rated catcher with an ADP of 46, three spots behind Russell Martin.

McCann had nothing fluky in his profile last year. He hit equally well at home and on the road, versus LHP and RHP and both before and after the All-Star break. He posted the highest BB% of his brief career, and checked in with a 10.1 percent walk rate. His K% dropped over two full points to 12.6 percent and his BABIP was a normal .308 for the season.

With McCann the question is not so much where he rates among players at his position, he clearly ranks among the top catchers in the game, but rather when to draft catchers. According to the RotoTimes Player Rater, McCann turned in a $13.94 season last year. That placed 64th among hitters in mixed leagues. Add the top pitchers to the pool and does it make sense to spend a fourth-round pick on McCann?

Yes it does.

One of the challenging things to incorporate into projections is position scarcity. Last year Mauer was the top catcher with a $14.89 value. There were 12 first basemen with higher dollar values. Mauer’s $14.89 was worth more than Derrek Lee’s $15.96, much like how a run in the Astrodome in 1968 was worth more than two runs in Coors Field in 1996.

Yet somehow it is easier to wrap our heads around the idea of park factors and run environments than it is to understand position scarcity. Perhaps this is because when we attempt to calculate position scarcity, we have to not only compare how each player at a position does versus his direct peers, but also how that rates with all of the players in MLB.

Catchers are undervalued by their raw stats. The next time you participate in a mock draft, try drafting a catcher in the first three-to-five rounds, if you do not normally do this. And then examine the impact on your team and see if you are better off with McCann as your catcher than with Yadier Molina or whomever you normally get in the 20th round, even though you passed on an impact hitter like Nick Markakis or Jason Bay.

Properly calculating position scarcity is beyond the scope of this piece. It is one of the most valuable things at pay sites ranging from FantasyPros911.com to BaseballHQ to The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa. But position scarcity is real and it makes McCann a good value at his current ADP.

The Texas Rangers organization is rich in backstops. The club traded veteran catcher Gerald Laird to the Detroit Tigers this past winter (for much-needed young pitchers Guillermo Moscoso and Carlos Melo), which still left the club with three young players at the position.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who was obtained from Atlanta in 2007 in the Mark Teixeira deal, has the most experience at the position with 154 games at the Major League level. In 198 MLB at-bats in 2008, the 23-year-old switch-hitter batted .253/.352/.364. Max Ramirez, obtained in 2007 from Cleveland for Kenny Lofton, made his MLB debut this past season and appeared in 17 games. The 24-year-old spent the majority of his season in Double-A and hit .354/.450/.646 in 243 at-bats.

The best of the bunch though – and most well-rounded – is Taylor Teagarden, whom the club drafted out of the University of Texas in the third round of the 2005 draft. The 25-year-old’s road to the Majors was slowed by injuries (including Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow), but he made his MLB debut in 2008 and hit .319/.396/.809 with six home runs in just 47 at-bats.

Earlier in the season, while playing at Double-A and Triple-A, Teagarden struggled to hit for average but was once again battling injuries. In 2007, split between High-A and Double-A, the right-handed hitting catcher slugged 27 home runs and hit .308 combined. Teagarden is not likely to hit for a high average in the Majors, despite his previous averages, but the power is for real. He has a long swing and has trouble making consistent contact with strikeout rates of more than 30.0 K% in his career.

Regardless of his offensive contributions, the Texas native will be a valuable MLB catcher based solely on his defense. Teagarden was considered the best defensive catcher in college in 2005 – and possibly in the entire draft that season. In fact, some scouts had serious questions about his ability to hit professional pitching, but almost everyone agreed that he would play in the Majors thanks to his potential Gold Glove defense. He is also a leader on the field and throws well (38% caught stealing in 2008).

Although Saltalamacchia and Ramirez may offer a little more offense – especially in terms of average and consistency, Teagarden is the better all-around-player due to his defensive contributions (the other two are average at best behind the dish) and power threat. From a fantasy perspective, expect a .240-.250 average with 15-20 home runs if he gets the lion’s share of the playing time in 2009.

For years, the path to Wrigley Field has been turbulent for Chicago Cubs position prospects. From Corey Patterson to Luis Montanez, Brian Dopirak to Ryan Harvey, Felix Pie (though Pie might yet make good in Baltimore) to Tyler Colvin, the folks from the North Side have had many a batter end up falling by the wayside. In fact, the last position player signed by the Cubbies to develop into an all-star prior to last season was Joe Girardi, all the way back in 1986.

The man that ended that ignominious streak in 2008, ironically, wasn’t viewed as that great of a prospect for the majority of his minor league career. Geovany Soto was the National League’s starting catcher in last year’s midsummer classic and took home NL Rookie of the Year hardware. In the minors, however, he often toiled behind more celebrated farm products, posting modest numbers that had most envisioning him as a future second-stringer rather than a cornerstone backstop.

Selected out of Puerto Rico in the 11th round of the 2001 amateur draft, Soto spent his first two pro years in rookie ball oscillating between catcher and first base. The 318th overall pick showed some ability to work the count and a modicum of pop, batting .260/.327/.387 in ’01 and .273/.328/.416 in 2002.

Bumped up to High-A Dayton of the Florida State league for the 2003 season, Geovany posted a tepid .242/.314/.316 line. He worked the count decently (10.4 BB%), but no one’s going to get excited over a .630 OPS. Heading into the 2004 season, Soto was in the prospect witness protection program: part-time catchers/possible first basemen who slug just north of .300 aren’t going to attract much adoration.

Soto showed signs of life at the plate at AA West Tennessee in ’04. He hit .271/.349/.401 for the Diamond Jaxx, displaying a good eye (12 BB%) and a little more thump (.130 ISO). The 6-1, 230 pounder got himself into better shape (shedding close to 30 pounds) and donned the tools of ignorance on a regular basis, catching 102 games. Feeling that the then-21 year-old Diamond Jaxx catcher was diamond in the rough, Baseball America jumped Soto up to the 14th spot on the Cubs’ top 30 prospects list following the season.

Feeling that he had made significant strides, the Cubs decided to promote Soto to AAA Iowa for the 2005 season. His performance didn’t collapse, but his offensive output was a bit disappointing: .253/.357/.342 in 292 AB. The 22 year-old did get one AB with the Cubs, and ranked 16th on BA’s Chicago top 30 prospects list.

Back with the I-Cubs in 2006, Soto had a similar level of output, save for an additional 20 points of batting average, a few less walks and a tiny bit of extra power (.272/.353/.386 in 342 AB). Soto soaked up a few more AB’s for the Cubs in September. BA (ranking Soto 17th) noted his improving defensive skills, but also felt that he “profile[d] more as a backup than a regular”, and that Soto was “destined for a third straight season in Iowa.”

The Puerto Rican backstop did indeed return to the corn fields in 2007, but he decided to transform into the Pacific Coast League’s version of Josh Gibson. Soto blasted the PCL to the tune of .349/.422/.640 in 444 PA. Sure, his batting average was sky-high (the result of a .411 BABIP), but Geovany finally showed some juice (.291 ISO) to go along with his discerning eye (12.2 BB%). That prolific performance caught the attention of the Cubs, who gave him a healthy dose of playing time in September. Soto soared up the prospect charts, ranking second in the Cubs’ system and 48th overall. BA pined that he “raised his ceiling from likely backup to potential all-star.”

That comment seemed prescient in 2008, as Soto made good on that all-star promise in his first full season in the majors. In 563 PA, he posted a .371 wOBA, ranking behind only Brian McCann and Joe Mauer. Batting .285/.364/.504, Soto compiled a .219 ISO ranked just three points behind McCann. In addition to hitting the ball with authority, Soto continued to be selective at the dish. He drew a free pass 11.2% of the time and swung at 20.1% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (the league average is about 25%). If there’s one area where Geovany might regress, it’s in the batting average department. He did strike out 24.5% of the time, so maintaining a .280-.290 average isn’t all that likely. Given those stellar secondary skills, however, that hardly matters.

While more highly-touted bonus babies in Chicago’s system have often crashed and burned, Geovany Soto kept on chugging and has emerged as one of the most valuable assets in Major League Baseball. Catchers with his combination of plate judgment and extra-base sock are exceedingly rare, and the 26 year-old figures to turn in another all-star caliber season in 2009. Soto is no one-year wonder: he’s here to stay among the Mauers and McCann’s of the game.

Everyone talks about how fortunate that Francisco Rodriguez was to set the all-time single-season saves mark in the last year of his contract. It certainly was ideal, but Rodriguez at 26-years old and a reliable closer for years, was going to get a nice contract, regardless. Instead, the person people should point to for coming up big prior to free agency is Jorge Posada.

In 2007, at the age of 35, Posada put up a .338-20-90-91-2 line, which earned him a four-year, $52.4 million contract. The good news is that on the Yankees, that is just another contract. The bad news is that there is no way he is going to earn that salary, either in 2009 or the final two years of the deal.

In baseball history, there have been only 18 seasons in which a player 37 or older has amassed 400 or more plate appearances in a season in which they appeared at 50 percent or more of their games as a catcher. And six of those belong to Carlton Fisk.

In only one of those seasons did the player hit over .300, and that was during World War II, when Ernie Lombardi hit .307 against competition that was not really major league caliber. Only three times did a player hit 20 or more home runs under these conditions, two of those by Fisk in seasons in which he batted .238 and .256, respectively.

Catching is hard. And Posada is climbing the ranks of most games caught in a career. He has played 1,390 games at catcher, which ranks in the top 40 in MLB history. Last year, Posada broke down. He had season-ending shoulder surgery and before he shut it down for the season, Posada was a liability behind the plate.

There is no guarantee that he can bounce back in 2009. And even if he can be a productive hitter, can he play well enough defensively to stay at catcher? And if not, does Posada still have enough bat for the Yankees to carry at DH?

All of these things combine to push Posada out of the top 10 in catchers for 2009. Yes, the possibility exists that he might be one of the top three at the position if he rebounds completely. But do you really like those odds? Because of his previous level of performance, Posada has more upside than only a handful of catchers. But he is much more likely to repeat his 2008 numbers, which means fantasy players should look elsewhere.

Peter Bendix took a look at Matt Wieters back in November and came away concluding that Wieters could be Joe Mauer with more power. Those are some pretty lofty expectations. David Golebiewski briefly discussed his AA exploits last month. Now that pretty much all of the projection systems have come out, I think it is a pretty good time to revisit the prospect that has more words written about him than any in recent memory.

Mock Draft Central has the three top catchers (Brian McCann, Russell Martin, and Mauer) checking in between picks 45-50 in their recent drafts. Giovanni Soto is next at about the 65th pick. Matt Wieters is not in the top 75. What can we expect from Wieters? Well, the projections have quite a range. CHONE has him pegged for .274/.352/.439/.791 with 15 HRs in 115 games. They project him to have the 10th best OPS and tied for the 5th best HR total. This is the low-end projections. On the opposite end of the spectrum is the PECOTA projection. He rates as the best catcher in baseball according to PECOTA. His line is .311/.395/.544/.939 with 31 HR and 100+ RBIs and runs. Bill James’ and Oliver lie in between the two extremes. At worst it seems he will be a top 5 offensive catcher next year.

The bigger concern with Wieters is playing time. When will he see the bigs? In front of Wieters is the career backup/part-time option of Greg Zaun. I have a hard time believing that Zaun will hold Wieters off the position, and there is little doubt in my mind that Wieters will perform well enough to warrant a call. I imagine the only thing really holding Wieters back is money. Figuring that the Orioles do not stand a chance to contend this year in the stacked AL East, the O’s may be wise to hold him back to delay his arbitration clock. If attendance starts to wane, then the O’s may be wise to bring up the young stud to put butts in the seat. Seemingly, there is no way they hold him in the minors past June.

When he comes up, he will immediately be at worst one of the better offensive catchers. Most people seem to think, though, that he will be a force. Come summer you will be very, very glad you overdrafted for Wieters. In keeper leagues, he may be one of the best picks made in your draft, similar to Longoria last year. I know I plan on reaching for Wieters in most drafts and then depend on one of the catchers off the trash heap to man the position for a month or two.

Unless you are lucky enough to have Joe Mauer or Geovany Soto gracing your Fantasy roster, the catching position can be a bit of a headache. It can even occasionally do more harm than good. As a result, Fantasy owners are always on the lookout for catchers with upside. The Kansas City Royals organization currently has four catchers vying for two roster spots. Incumbents Miguel Olivo and John Buck certainly do not inspire a lot of hope.

Olivo had a respectable season in the American League in 2008 after spending the previous two years with Florida. He had the second highest batting average of his career (.255) but continued to be allergic to walks with just seven (!) in 306 at-bats. He has just 79 walks in 640 career games. On the plus side, Olivo showed a little more power in 2008, while posting a career high in slugging (.444) and his second-best ISO (.190). At the age of 30, the right-handed hitting catcher may be able to sustain this level of offence for another year or two. That said, Russell Branyan had a better contact rate than Olivo last season (68.5% to 66.8%).

Buck has never lived up to his potential due to an inability to make consistent contact (although he bested Olivo at 75.2% in 2008) and to hit for a respectable average. He has a career batting average of .234, but has hit just .223 in the past two seasons. Buck walks a little bit more than Olivo (He at least breaks the .300 OBP mark,albeit barely at .304). The 28-year-old backstop has traditionally provided a little bit of pop at the plate (He hit a career-high 18 home runs in 347 at-bats in 2007) but his slugging percentage was just .365 in 2008, along with an ISO of .141. Buck’s hold on a Major League roster spot should be tenuous.

The team also added ex-Braves prospect Brayan Pena to the 40-man roster this past fall. He still offers some upside even at the age of 26 and with just 71 career Major League games under his belt. In the past three Triple-A seasons, Pena has hit at least .301 and he has not struck out more than 11% of the time. He doesn’t walk either; 10% is the highest rate during that same three-year span. His ability to handle the bat and work the zone (as well as his switch-hitting capability) might make him a nice complement to Olivo.

Former Mets and Tigers backstop Vance Wilson was also brought in on a minor league deal after missing all of 2007 and 2008 due to not one, but two Tommy John surgeries on his elbow. It’s hard to know if he has anything to offer offensively or defensively. Even before the injury, Wilson was a .240-.250 hitter with modest power.

The best pairing of catchers in KC, from an offensive perspective, appears to be Olivo and Pena, but Buck no doubt has the inside track on the second spot because he is due more than $2 million in arbitration. If Pena is given playing time, keep an eye on him.

Despite his last name, there was nothing at all poetic about Josh Bard’s 2008 campaign. If anything, his season read like a Shakespearean tragedy. Coming off of a solid showing in 2007 that included a .285/.364/.404 line in cavernous Petco Park, Bard must have felt more blindsided than Polonius upon seeing his line crash down to a paltry .202/.279/.270 in 2008. Coming off of a season marred by poor performance and three trips to the disabled list for groin, ankle and triceps injuries, the switch-hitter was forced to take a non-guaranteed one-year deal from the Red Sox. Bard’s pact will apparently pay $1.7 million if he makes the club, with $800K in possible incentives.

A member of Boston’s squad in 2006, Bard was shipped off to San Diego along with worm-killer Cla Meredith in exchange for flutterball specialist Doug Mirabelli. Now back in the fold (and presumably keeping an arms-length away from Tim Wakefield), Bard may have the opportunity to compete for a starting job. Can he rebound, or will he just end up as the next job for the gravediggers?

In most every category, Bard’s 2008 numbers mirrored his work from previous seasons. The Texas Tech product walked 9.2% of the time and struck out fourteen percent, showing control of the strike zone that was very similar to his career averages (9.4 BB%, 15.4 K%). His line-drive rate was also a healthy 21.6%, suggesting that he was still squaring the ball up pretty often. Bard didn’t put the ball on the ground any more than he typically does either, with a 47.1 GB% (49.5% career). He didn’t show much of any power while dealing with a multitude of ailments, but the only major difference in Bard’s stat line was a laughably low .230 BABIP. Given his line drive rate, that figure will likely jump a considerable amount in 2009.

Marcel projects Bard to hit .266/.342/.395 with a wOBA of .325 in 2009. Let’s stick with that projection for the time being, roughly estimating that the shift back to the AL is offset by his moving from the run-suppressing environs of Petco to a more favorable ballpark in Fenway. Marcel has Bard taking 343 PA in ’09- let’s up that figure a bit to reflect more frequent playing time. I’ll give him a theoretical 450 PA.

In 450 PA, Bard projects to be worth -3.91 runs compared to an average hitter (.335 wOBA). He comes with a relatively poor defensive reputation, so let’s dock him -5 runs for his glove work. The positional adjustment for catchers is +12.5 runs per 150 games and the replacement level adjustment is +20 runs per 700 PA. Pro-rating both of those figures, Bard gets about an 8.5 run positional adjustment and 12.9 run replacement level adjustment.

Add all of those elements up (-3.91 offense + -5 defense +8.5 position + 12.9 replacement level), and you get about 12.5 runs above replacement, or 1.25 WAR. That level of production is worth about $6 million on the open market, using a $4.8 million/1 WAR scale. For comparison, Jason Varitek posted a nearly identical 1.3 WAR in 2008.

Josh Bard should not be your plan A on draft day, but he could be a nice value if he snags the starting job in Boston. It’s pretty easy to get stuck with an Ausmusian cipher behind the plate in deeper leagues-Bard isn’t going to light it up in any category, but he’s unlikely to be a liability, either. He won’t give you a whole lot of pop, but his solid on-base skills and control of the strike zone suggest that this Bard could get poetic justice with the Red Sox in 2009.