Archive for Catchers

Take a look at Chris Iannetta’s batted ball statistics so far this year, and your eyes may stutter.

Sure, some of the numbers may not surprise you. He’s a career .244 MLB hitter, and .303 MiLB hitter. So you might see his batting average so far this year (a robust .200), take a gander at his .176 BABIP, and dust your hands off. See? He’s just been unlucky, and just needs a couple more balls to fall in and he’ll be fine.

In the immortal words of Bugs Bunny in Space Jam, “Not so fast, Doc!”

Keep scanning right and you’ll come to it. See it yet? Yup, Iannetta has a line drive rate of 5.1% right now. And yes, a 69.2% fly ball percentage. It’s a young year, but those are some funky numbers. They paint quite the picture of a young slugger with a huge uppercut swing. As early as the 16th of last month, Thomas Harding reported on MLB.com that the young catcher, though making strides defensively, still “has to work on not hitting under balls.” Seemingly, he’s still a work in progress, and the team is aware of the uppercuts.

The sustainability of such a low line drive rate is, of course, not in question. The worst full-year line drive percentage for a batting-title qualifier last year belonged to Hunter Pence with his 13.9% number. Iannetta will either get that number up or find himself working on his swing in Colorado Springs. The question, instead, is what this will mean for his development as one of the finer young offensive-minded catchers in the league. And there seems to be a mixed bag here.

Getting his fly ball percentage over his career 41.3% has to be considered a good thing, especially in Colorado. His fantasy owners like to see those home runs, and more fly balls naturally lead to more balls over the fences.

On the other hand, after extensive work with BABIP and line drive rate, the consensus on the interwebbings has it that the two statistics are positively correlated. If this is merely a temporary blip in line drive rate, Iannetta may still be on his way to being a guy that hits enough line drives to positively contribute in batting average while showing good power for his position. Even with his poor numbers to begin this year, his career line drive rate is a decent-to-good 19.3%, so the rosy scenario is still a likely scenario.

Should these 60 at-bats then change our mind about the other 607 Iannetta has accrued in Colorado to date? Probably not, but they do take a little rose off this bloom.

After striking out in 17.7% of his at-bats in the minor leagues, Iannetta has upped that number to 28% against the big boys and 33% this year. Pair the oscillating line drive rate with the burgeoning strike-out rate, and it seems that this young catcher will have to have a nice run of luck to get his batting average close to .300 in future seasons, to say nothing of this year.

The good news? At least the power is real!

With a wrist injury sidelining No. 1 catcher Ryan Doumit for eight to 10 weeks, the backstop duties will fall to a pair of rookies: Jason Jaramillo and Robinzon Diaz. The former Phillies prospect, Jaramillo, will likely see the bulk of playing time early on due to A) The fact he was on the 25-man roster before the injury, B) His defensive reputation, and C) The manager’s familiarity with him from their time in the Phillies system.

However, don’t count out Diaz from wrestling the No. 1 gig away from Jaramillo before the first month is up. Diaz is an absolute freak as a hitter. He’s a classic bad-ball hitter in the same vein as Vlad Guerrero; he’s never met a pitch he couldn’t swing at – and make contact with. His minor league triple-slash line says it all: .304/.340/.391… Great average, few walks, almost no power. During the past three seasons, Diaz’ walk rate has hovered around 4.0 BB% (because he swings at everything) and his strikeout rate has been around 9.0 K% (because he makes contact with almost anything). The walk rate would be a little more worrisome if it were not for his consistent ability to hit .300, which compensates somewhat.

For a catcher, a .300 batting average is pretty impressive (especially if you’re running a fantasy team). Diaz also has the potential to offer some defensive flexibility. In the past, the athletic catcher has seen time at third base and second base. There was even talk of trying him in the outfield. During his prime prospect days in the Jays system, the 25-year-old catcher was 5’11” and 170-180 lbs. Some reports now have Diaz pushing over the 200 lbs mark, which would suggest his days of playing second base might be over, but he could still definitely help out at third, first and possibly a corner outfield spot.

A few years ago, there was a near riot amongst the Jays’ minor league pitching staff that was pitching to Diaz. While conversing a number of times with one specific Jays minor league pitcher, he would speak of what little effort Diaz put into the defensive side of his game – especially his game calling. But that, of course, was just one side of the story. And, to be even more fair, it was three years ago and the scouting reports are more favorable now.

Diaz has made strides in his defensive game. He even threw out about 40 percent of runners trying to steal last season. Both his range and fielding percentages have improved in the past two seasons. His game calling is still not a strong suit, but at least games can be called from the dugout, and he has a good person to learn from in the form of Pirates manager John Russell, a former catcher for parts of 10 MLB seasons. There is also room for improvements on blocking balls and receiving.

I once had a Jays official tell me that Diaz could be as successful in the game as he wanted to be. Translation: He sometimes lacks motivation, and is happy to get by on natural talent more often than not. It’s a lot harder to coast on talent alone in the Majors. There are players who do it, no doubt. But unlike the minors, the media glare is much brighter and the veteran players are vocal in most clubhouses. There are some players, like Hanley Ramirez, that post better numbers in the Majors than they did in the minors, quite possibly for that reason. Diaz could very well turn out to be one of those players if given the opportunity.

As a switch-hitting backstop with an actual chance of inflicting some damage at the plate, Jarrod Saltalamacchia would enjoy a rather uninhibited path to playing time on the vast majority of major league clubs. However, “Salty” has happened to be property of two catching-rich organizations during the course of his professional career.

A sandwich pick (36th overall) by the Atlanta Braves in the 2003 amateur draft, Saltalamacchia (mostly dubbed “Salty” from here on, for the sake of my sanity and spell checkers everywhere) began his big league ascent with the GCL Braves. In 164 PA, the 6-4 catcher displayed sound strike-zone judgment, batting .239/.382/.396.

Baseball America ranked Salty as Atlanta’s 19th best prospect entering the 2004 season, trailing a second round pick in the ’02 draft named Brian McCann. “For the second straight year”, BA wrote, “the Braves believe they emerged with the draft’s best catcher.”

Making his full-season debut at Low-A Rome, Saltalamacchia impressed with a .272/.342/.437 line, popping 10 home runs in 357 PA. The 19 year-old again displayed a keen eye at the plate (10.5 BB%), though his near 26% K rate brought back some concerns about a longish swing. Salty also dealt with a sore wrist and hamstring.

Still, the campaign was a big positive overall, as Salty climbed to 9th on Atlanta’s prospect list (McCann also moved up, from 7th in ’04 to 3rd in ’05). While noting that his “receiving and footwork need further improvement”, BA believed that Saltalamacchia had “quieted skeptics who wondered if he’d be able to stay behind the plate.”

While Salty’s work in ’04 earned him some praise, it was his robust work in 2005 that really put him with the big boys on the prospect map. Playing at Myrtle Beach in the High-A Carolina League, Salty pulverized pitchers as a Pelican, showing secondary skills galore (.314/.394/.519 in 529 PA). He was downright Posada-like at the plate, drawing a walk 12.4% of the time while blasting 19 big flys. Even Salty’s whiff rate (21.6%) trended in the right direction.

Prior to the 2006 season, Saltalamacchia was honored as the best and brightest in the Braves system, and ranked as the 18th best prospect in the minors. As BA noted, “while Brian McCann was establishing himself as a quality young backstop in the majors, Saltalamacchia made a case for being the best catching prospect in the minors.”

Salty made his highly anticipated AA debut in 2006, but the results ended up falling short of what most were expecting. By no means was he bad, but a .230/.353/.380 showing on the heels of his studly work in ’05 left some feeling a bit let down.

On the positive side, his walk rate remained stellar (14.9 BB%) and a .150 ISO from a 21 year-old catcher is nothing to sneeze at. Salty’s .270 BABIP also pointed to some misfortune upon contact. There were other extenuating circumstances as well- a lingering wrist injury sapped his pop. In all, Salty’s work in ’06 was not near as disappointing as it looks upon first glance.

BA again rated Salty as Atlanta’s best farm talent in its 2007 Prospect Handbook, while also recognizing that an opportunity to showcase his skills with the team that drafted him might not come. Said BA, “Brian McCann is one of the best young catchers in baseball [he posted a .402 wOBA in ’06], and while Saltalamacchia is similarly gifted, there’s room for only one of them behind the plate in Atlanta.”

Salty smoked AA to begin the 2007 season (.452 wOBA in 94 PA), earning a big league call up in early May. He split his time between catcher and first base with the Braves, batting .284/.333/.411 in 153 PA.

BA’s comment about Salty not being long for Atlanta looked prescient, as Atlanta shipped their other highly-touted backstop to the Rangers during the summer as part of a stunning prospect haul for Mark Teixeira (that trade also netted Texas Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison and Beau Jones). Salty again oscillated between opposite ends of the defensive spectrum with the Rangers, hitting .253/.352/.364 in 176 PA.

In 2008, Saltalamacchia dealt with a plethora of bumps and bruises, from a forearm injury to groin, hand and foot issues as well. Through all the cold tubs and Icy Hot, he batted .253/.352/.364 with a .319 wOBA. Salty worked the count well (13.5 BB%), but his Custian whiff rate (37.4 K%) and .388 BABIP were concerning.

Freed from McCann’s shadow, Salty is free to don the tools of ignorance without looking over his shoulder, right? Well, not necessarily. Former University of Texas star Taylor Teagarden is reputed to be one of the best defensive catchers in the game while lacking the thump to play another position, and Maximiliano Ramirez (himself a former Braves farm hand) shredded the Texas League in 2008 (his reputation behind the dish is much less acclaimed, however).

For now, it seems as though the Rangers are content to platoon Salty and Teagarden, with Teagarden taking on the southpaws who have thus far given Saltalamacchia nightmares (.554 OPS in 208 PA).

Saltalamacchia might not have any sort of buzz surrounding him right now, but he still possesses secondary skills that most catchers just cannot match and he won’t turn 24 until May. Our five projection systems here at Fan Graphs all peg Salty as a .250-ish hitter with an OBP around .330 and a SLG% between .420-.430. If he gets the lion’s share of playing time behind the dish, it would be wise to give Salty a spin.

As far as rookie seasons go, Ronny Paulino couldn’t have asked for much more back in 2006. The then-Pirate catcher batted .310/.360/.394 in 481 PA. He posted 2.6 Value Wins as a 25 year-old, and with fellow youngster Ryan Doumit seemingly always afflicted with one malady or another, his future job security looked solid in the Steel City.

Paulino’s line was batting average-fueled (.367 BABIP), but he had gradually shown more thump as he climbed the minor league ladder to the ‘Burgh. He slugged in the high-.400’s between AA Altoona and AAA Indianapolis over the 2004 and 2005 seasons, and at 6-2, 240, some hoped that the big-bodied backstop would learn to put more of a charge into the ball (fun fact: Paulino is the third-heaviest player to have 50% or more of his defensive innings come at catcher, per Baseball-Reference; Carlos Maldonado is first and Shanty Hogan is second).

Instead of building upon his initial success, Paulino turned in a very mild sophomore campaign in ’07. The bottom fell out of his batting average spike, and his wOBA declined from .330 to .309. Little changed in his plate discipline (he walked about 7% and whiffed near 17% in both seasons), but his BABIP fell to .297, and with it, his average (.263). He displayed a little more pop, but we’re speaking in very relative terms: his ISO increased from .084 to .127.

2008 saw Paulino fall completely out of favor with the Bucco organization. His commitment and conditioning were questioned, and he posted a wretched .260 wOBA in 130 PA. As Doumit was establishing himself as the long-term answer behind the dish (health permitting), Paulino was unceremoniously whisked away to AAA Indianapolis, where he at least took out his anger on International League hurlers (.306/.373/.550 in 126 PA) after recovering from a sprained right ankle.

Feeling that Paulino was no longer worth the trouble and a 40-man roster spot, the Pirates shipped the 27 year-old to the Phillies this past offseason in exchange for another tepid-hitting catcher, Jason Jaramillo. Paulino didn’t stay Philly property for long, however, as he was recently sent on his way to San Francisco (for Jack Taschner) only to be flipped to the catching-starved Marlins for pitching prospect Hector Correa.

Paulino will have a greater opportunity to soak up some playing time (and some sun) with the Marlins, who were planning on marching forward with John Baker. Baker possesses a dose of on-base ability and didn’t embarrass himself in limited play last season, but a platoon certainly suggests itself: Baker is a career .277/.350/.433 minor league hitter versus right-handers, with a patient-but-punchless .263/.356/.333 line versus southpaws.

Conversely, Paulino has licked lefties in the majors (.355/.417/.498) while floundering against righties (.252/.301/.343). The Dominican Republic native takes some truly painful AB’s versus northpaws: he’s easily baited into chasing the slider off the dish, which only compounds the plate coverage issues caused by his very open batting stance. According to his ESPN player page, Paulino hit .128 versus pitches thrown down and away last year.

With only Baker in his way and Florida’s prized catching prospect (Kyle Skipworth) in the nascent stages of his pro career, Ronny Paulino has the opportunity to re-establish himself as a guy capable of donning the tools of ignorance on a daily basis. However, he’s going to have to stop looking like a fish out of water versus right-handers if he wishes to become more than the lefty-bashing side of a platoon.

Victor Martinez was the top catcher on most draft boards prior to the 2008 season. He had an ADP of 29 following his 2007 season where he hit .301-25-114-78-0. Of course Martinez ended up a big disappointment, as he came down with first a hamstring problem and then an injured elbow.

Martinez ultimately needed surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. When he returned from the disabled list, he hit for disappointing power numbers the final two months of the season.

The mock draft crowd has knocked Martinez down quite a bit this year. He carries an ADP of 80, 51 spots lower than a season ago, and making him on average the fifth catcher off the board.

There have been no reports of problems with the elbow this Spring. Martinez has been a regular in Cleveland’s lineup. He has six extra-base hits, including three home runs, in 38 at-bats, which has led to a .579 slugging mark.

Now, 38 at-bats is not usually anything you want to make any judgments about and Spring Training stats are notoriously misleading. But in the particular case of Martinez, seeing him hit for power is definitely a good sign.

If Martinez can come anywhere close to his 2007 fantasy line, he will be a steal at his current ADP because of the value of those stats from a catcher. With the uncertainty surrounding Joe Mauer, fantasy owners would be wise to bump Martinez over the Twins backstop and put him on a par with Geovany Soto, who carries an ADP of 66.

The Houston Astros project to have a few black holes in their 2009 lineup. An Aaron Boone/Geoff Blum platoon of doom might make Astros fans long for the days of Ty Wigginton, and center fielder Michael Bourn racked up a mind-bending -21.6 batting runs in 2008. Add in an aging middle-infield combo, and it’s easy to see why PECOTA envisions just 703 runs scored for the ‘Stros, topping only the PETCO-penalized Padres and the offensively puny Giants.

Catcher was another source of angst for the club in 2008, as Houston backstops combined to post a sickly .201/.281/.289 line. Even by the modest standards of the position (the average MLB catcher hit .255/.324/.389), the Astros received precious little from long-time offensive cipher Brad Ausmus, minor league journeyman Humberto Quintero and busted prospect J.R. Towles.

Apparently unwilling to trust Towles with the everyday job following a very sour cup of coffee last season, the Astros have reportedly inked Ivan Rodriguez to a 1-year, $1.5 million deal with an additional $1.5M in possible incentives.

Long noted for an arm capable of launching projectiles into space, “Pudge” has seen his offensive production slide considerably since 2005. After compiling wOBA’s between .361 and .381 between 2002-2004, Rodriguez has followed up with marks of .312, .330, .306 and .317 from ’05 to ’08. The 37 year-old is just about the least patient hitter that you’re going to find (our plate discipline stats dating back to 2005 show Rodriguez swinging at 38.3% of pitches out of the zone), but he made up for it previously with a good deal of extra-base thump. That ability to drive the ball is in question at this point: I-Rod posted his lowest slugging percentage (.394) and Isolated Power (.118) since 1992.

There’s little risk in signing Pudge at such a discount rate- he’d need to produce less than one win above replacement to be worth his salary with the incentives. However, it’s not especially clear that Rodriguez constitutes a clear upgrade over the much-maligned Towles, at least at the plate:

CHONE:
I-Rod: .299 wOBA
Towles: .320 wOBA

PECOTA:
I-Rod: .263/.301/.364
Towles: .230/.301/.383

Towles was brutal in the majors last season (.235 wOBA in 171 PA), but his BABIP was an impossibly low .157. Short of having magnets placed on the ball and on the gloves of the defense, that’s not bloody likely to happen again. The 25 year-old has little star potential, but he is a career .302/.386/.476 hitter in the minors.

Rodriguez becomes a potential target in deeper leagues based on there just plain being few attractive options behind the dish, but keep Towles in mind in the event that he works his way back into the major league picture. He’s not great, but he’s nowhere near as bad as his ’08 big league train wreck would have you believe.

After a down season in his sophomore year in the majors in 2007, Brian McCann bounced back last year to be in the top four among catchers in AVG, HR, RBI and Runs. The projection systems predict McCann essentially to repeat his 2008 performance this year and the mock drafting crowd agrees, making McCann the second-rated catcher with an ADP of 46, three spots behind Russell Martin.

McCann had nothing fluky in his profile last year. He hit equally well at home and on the road, versus LHP and RHP and both before and after the All-Star break. He posted the highest BB% of his brief career, and checked in with a 10.1 percent walk rate. His K% dropped over two full points to 12.6 percent and his BABIP was a normal .308 for the season.

With McCann the question is not so much where he rates among players at his position, he clearly ranks among the top catchers in the game, but rather when to draft catchers. According to the RotoTimes Player Rater, McCann turned in a $13.94 season last year. That placed 64th among hitters in mixed leagues. Add the top pitchers to the pool and does it make sense to spend a fourth-round pick on McCann?

Yes it does.

One of the challenging things to incorporate into projections is position scarcity. Last year Mauer was the top catcher with a $14.89 value. There were 12 first basemen with higher dollar values. Mauer’s $14.89 was worth more than Derrek Lee’s $15.96, much like how a run in the Astrodome in 1968 was worth more than two runs in Coors Field in 1996.

Yet somehow it is easier to wrap our heads around the idea of park factors and run environments than it is to understand position scarcity. Perhaps this is because when we attempt to calculate position scarcity, we have to not only compare how each player at a position does versus his direct peers, but also how that rates with all of the players in MLB.

Catchers are undervalued by their raw stats. The next time you participate in a mock draft, try drafting a catcher in the first three-to-five rounds, if you do not normally do this. And then examine the impact on your team and see if you are better off with McCann as your catcher than with Yadier Molina or whomever you normally get in the 20th round, even though you passed on an impact hitter like Nick Markakis or Jason Bay.

Properly calculating position scarcity is beyond the scope of this piece. It is one of the most valuable things at pay sites ranging from FantasyPros911.com to BaseballHQ to The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa. But position scarcity is real and it makes McCann a good value at his current ADP.

The Texas Rangers organization is rich in backstops. The club traded veteran catcher Gerald Laird to the Detroit Tigers this past winter (for much-needed young pitchers Guillermo Moscoso and Carlos Melo), which still left the club with three young players at the position.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who was obtained from Atlanta in 2007 in the Mark Teixeira deal, has the most experience at the position with 154 games at the Major League level. In 198 MLB at-bats in 2008, the 23-year-old switch-hitter batted .253/.352/.364. Max Ramirez, obtained in 2007 from Cleveland for Kenny Lofton, made his MLB debut this past season and appeared in 17 games. The 24-year-old spent the majority of his season in Double-A and hit .354/.450/.646 in 243 at-bats.

The best of the bunch though – and most well-rounded – is Taylor Teagarden, whom the club drafted out of the University of Texas in the third round of the 2005 draft. The 25-year-old’s road to the Majors was slowed by injuries (including Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow), but he made his MLB debut in 2008 and hit .319/.396/.809 with six home runs in just 47 at-bats.

Earlier in the season, while playing at Double-A and Triple-A, Teagarden struggled to hit for average but was once again battling injuries. In 2007, split between High-A and Double-A, the right-handed hitting catcher slugged 27 home runs and hit .308 combined. Teagarden is not likely to hit for a high average in the Majors, despite his previous averages, but the power is for real. He has a long swing and has trouble making consistent contact with strikeout rates of more than 30.0 K% in his career.

Regardless of his offensive contributions, the Texas native will be a valuable MLB catcher based solely on his defense. Teagarden was considered the best defensive catcher in college in 2005 – and possibly in the entire draft that season. In fact, some scouts had serious questions about his ability to hit professional pitching, but almost everyone agreed that he would play in the Majors thanks to his potential Gold Glove defense. He is also a leader on the field and throws well (38% caught stealing in 2008).

Although Saltalamacchia and Ramirez may offer a little more offense – especially in terms of average and consistency, Teagarden is the better all-around-player due to his defensive contributions (the other two are average at best behind the dish) and power threat. From a fantasy perspective, expect a .240-.250 average with 15-20 home runs if he gets the lion’s share of the playing time in 2009.

For years, the path to Wrigley Field has been turbulent for Chicago Cubs position prospects. From Corey Patterson to Luis Montanez, Brian Dopirak to Ryan Harvey, Felix Pie (though Pie might yet make good in Baltimore) to Tyler Colvin, the folks from the North Side have had many a batter end up falling by the wayside. In fact, the last position player signed by the Cubbies to develop into an all-star prior to last season was Joe Girardi, all the way back in 1986.

The man that ended that ignominious streak in 2008, ironically, wasn’t viewed as that great of a prospect for the majority of his minor league career. Geovany Soto was the National League’s starting catcher in last year’s midsummer classic and took home NL Rookie of the Year hardware. In the minors, however, he often toiled behind more celebrated farm products, posting modest numbers that had most envisioning him as a future second-stringer rather than a cornerstone backstop.

Selected out of Puerto Rico in the 11th round of the 2001 amateur draft, Soto spent his first two pro years in rookie ball oscillating between catcher and first base. The 318th overall pick showed some ability to work the count and a modicum of pop, batting .260/.327/.387 in ’01 and .273/.328/.416 in 2002.

Bumped up to High-A Dayton of the Florida State league for the 2003 season, Geovany posted a tepid .242/.314/.316 line. He worked the count decently (10.4 BB%), but no one’s going to get excited over a .630 OPS. Heading into the 2004 season, Soto was in the prospect witness protection program: part-time catchers/possible first basemen who slug just north of .300 aren’t going to attract much adoration.

Soto showed signs of life at the plate at AA West Tennessee in ’04. He hit .271/.349/.401 for the Diamond Jaxx, displaying a good eye (12 BB%) and a little more thump (.130 ISO). The 6-1, 230 pounder got himself into better shape (shedding close to 30 pounds) and donned the tools of ignorance on a regular basis, catching 102 games. Feeling that the then-21 year-old Diamond Jaxx catcher was diamond in the rough, Baseball America jumped Soto up to the 14th spot on the Cubs’ top 30 prospects list following the season.

Feeling that he had made significant strides, the Cubs decided to promote Soto to AAA Iowa for the 2005 season. His performance didn’t collapse, but his offensive output was a bit disappointing: .253/.357/.342 in 292 AB. The 22 year-old did get one AB with the Cubs, and ranked 16th on BA’s Chicago top 30 prospects list.

Back with the I-Cubs in 2006, Soto had a similar level of output, save for an additional 20 points of batting average, a few less walks and a tiny bit of extra power (.272/.353/.386 in 342 AB). Soto soaked up a few more AB’s for the Cubs in September. BA (ranking Soto 17th) noted his improving defensive skills, but also felt that he “profile[d] more as a backup than a regular”, and that Soto was “destined for a third straight season in Iowa.”

The Puerto Rican backstop did indeed return to the corn fields in 2007, but he decided to transform into the Pacific Coast League’s version of Josh Gibson. Soto blasted the PCL to the tune of .349/.422/.640 in 444 PA. Sure, his batting average was sky-high (the result of a .411 BABIP), but Geovany finally showed some juice (.291 ISO) to go along with his discerning eye (12.2 BB%). That prolific performance caught the attention of the Cubs, who gave him a healthy dose of playing time in September. Soto soared up the prospect charts, ranking second in the Cubs’ system and 48th overall. BA pined that he “raised his ceiling from likely backup to potential all-star.”

That comment seemed prescient in 2008, as Soto made good on that all-star promise in his first full season in the majors. In 563 PA, he posted a .371 wOBA, ranking behind only Brian McCann and Joe Mauer. Batting .285/.364/.504, Soto compiled a .219 ISO ranked just three points behind McCann. In addition to hitting the ball with authority, Soto continued to be selective at the dish. He drew a free pass 11.2% of the time and swung at 20.1% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (the league average is about 25%). If there’s one area where Geovany might regress, it’s in the batting average department. He did strike out 24.5% of the time, so maintaining a .280-.290 average isn’t all that likely. Given those stellar secondary skills, however, that hardly matters.

While more highly-touted bonus babies in Chicago’s system have often crashed and burned, Geovany Soto kept on chugging and has emerged as one of the most valuable assets in Major League Baseball. Catchers with his combination of plate judgment and extra-base sock are exceedingly rare, and the 26 year-old figures to turn in another all-star caliber season in 2009. Soto is no one-year wonder: he’s here to stay among the Mauers and McCann’s of the game.

Everyone talks about how fortunate that Francisco Rodriguez was to set the all-time single-season saves mark in the last year of his contract. It certainly was ideal, but Rodriguez at 26-years old and a reliable closer for years, was going to get a nice contract, regardless. Instead, the person people should point to for coming up big prior to free agency is Jorge Posada.

In 2007, at the age of 35, Posada put up a .338-20-90-91-2 line, which earned him a four-year, $52.4 million contract. The good news is that on the Yankees, that is just another contract. The bad news is that there is no way he is going to earn that salary, either in 2009 or the final two years of the deal.

In baseball history, there have been only 18 seasons in which a player 37 or older has amassed 400 or more plate appearances in a season in which they appeared at 50 percent or more of their games as a catcher. And six of those belong to Carlton Fisk.

In only one of those seasons did the player hit over .300, and that was during World War II, when Ernie Lombardi hit .307 against competition that was not really major league caliber. Only three times did a player hit 20 or more home runs under these conditions, two of those by Fisk in seasons in which he batted .238 and .256, respectively.

Catching is hard. And Posada is climbing the ranks of most games caught in a career. He has played 1,390 games at catcher, which ranks in the top 40 in MLB history. Last year, Posada broke down. He had season-ending shoulder surgery and before he shut it down for the season, Posada was a liability behind the plate.

There is no guarantee that he can bounce back in 2009. And even if he can be a productive hitter, can he play well enough defensively to stay at catcher? And if not, does Posada still have enough bat for the Yankees to carry at DH?

All of these things combine to push Posada out of the top 10 in catchers for 2009. Yes, the possibility exists that he might be one of the top three at the position if he rebounds completely. But do you really like those odds? Because of his previous level of performance, Posada has more upside than only a handful of catchers. But he is much more likely to repeat his 2008 numbers, which means fantasy players should look elsewhere.