Archive for Catchers

Posada Out; Is Cervelli Worth a Pick-up?

The Yankees and fantasy owners will be without the services of Jorge Posada for at least 3-4 weeks, as the switch-hitting backstop has a hairline fracture in his right foot. Posada suffered the injury on a Michael Cuddyer foul tip this past Sunday.

The 38-year-old was off to a scorching .326/.406/.618 start in 2010, with a .441 wOBA. Sans Posada, New York won’t turn to uber-prospect Jesus Montero, a prodigious power hitter in Triple-A who’s just 20 years old and elicits unfavorable scouting reports behind the dish. Francisco Cervelli will get the bulk of the starts until Posada is healed.

Cervelli, 24, was signed out of Venezuela back in 2003. Prior to 2009, though, he was known mostly as “the dude that Elliot Johnson crushed at home plate in spring training ’08” (somewhere in Cleveland, Shelley Duncan just got all twitchy). During his minor league career, the 6-1, 210 pound righty batter posted a .273/.367/.380 triple-slash. Cervelli had a 9.4 percent walk rate, striking out 20.6 percent and rarely driving the ball with a .107 Isolated Power.

Baseball America ranked Cervelli 23rd in the Yankees’ system prior to 2008 and 21st before 2009, but left him off the 2010 top 30 as the club accumulated an embarrassment of riches at the catching position (Montero, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy all made New York’s top 10 according to BA). Cervelli’s catch-and-throw skills were touted in his ’08 and ’09 write-ups, but BA questioned his offensive ceiling:

2008 (John Manuel)

While he has a good swing, he lacks the premium bat speed or strength to hit for power. The ball doesn’t jump off his bat. He does draw some walks, but more advanced pitchers will be more likely to challenge him without fear of reprisal.

2009 (Manuel)

Cervelli lacks the bat speed and strength to produce more than below-average power, and while he has shown good plate discipline in the minors, he’ll have to earn the respect of pitchers at higher levels.

Over the 2008-2010 seasons, Cervelli has logged 187 plate appearances. His line sits at .319/.358/.410, with little in the way of secondary skills (4.8 BB%, .090 ISO) but a high contact rate (13.3 K%) and a .359 batting average on balls in play that’s going to regress (his minor league mark is .336).

Cervelli hasn’t been a hacker, as his 26.2 outside swing percentage is close to the big league average. But, as Baseball America’s Manuel alluded to, major league pitchers are challenging him–Cervelli has gotten a fastball 66.4 of the time, with 52.4 percent of his pitches seen being thrown within the strike zone (48-51% MLB average).

Coming into 2010, CHONE projected a .257/.311/.376 line (.300 wOBA), while ZiPS had a .255/.307/.380 forecast (also a .300 wOBA). Cervelli’s fast start this season has his rest-of-season ZiPS line up to .282/.337/.423 (.334 wOBA), which seems like an awfully large jump, particularly in the power department (.141 ISO). Personally, I would take the “under” on that projection.

Cervelli is relatively young, and his development has been delayed by some kooky injuries (a broken wrist in the Johnson collision that torpedoed his ’08 season and a concussion sustained on a backswing in ’09 among them). But .413 wOBA start aside, he’s probably more of an adequate offensive catcher than any sort of breakout star. Those in mixed leagues might want to turn to someone like L.A.’s Mike Napoli (owned in 47% of Yahoo leagues) or Arizona’s Chris Snyder (13%) instead.


Rankings Update: Catchers

Aloha, America! Another week means another look at the catcher rankings. Just like last week, wOBA numbers are listed as “(Current, ZiPS Updated).”

The Big Three
Joe Mauer (.409, .416)
Brian McCann (.362, .374)
Victor Martinez (.278, .339)

Victor has lowered his strikeout rate, but that has come with a decrease in his walk rate, as well. He still has a .227 BABIP, and with a 22% LD rate, Victor’s batting average will rise sometime soon.

Happy to Have
Matt Wieters (.317, .335)
Geovany Soto (.426, .378)
Russell Martin (.331, .340)
Jorge Posada (.433, .380)

Geo Soto, consider yourself moved up! Last week, commenter “hamandcheese” said that he would “rather have Soto than any of the other guys in his group.” While I didn’t go as far as to move him ahead of Wieters, I did reevaluate his ranking and decided to move him up to number five. Which reminds me to remind you, the reader, to continue challenging these rankings in the comments. For the most part, I do my best to read through them and do some extra thinking about the player(s) in question.

Name That Molina
Bengie Molina (.375, .340)
Yadier Molina (.320, .332)
Ryan Doumit (.339, .340)
Kurt Suzuki (.368, .340)

Suzuki should be back in the next couple of days, but I want to see him come out of the gates and hit before I move him up any higher.

I Am Jack’s Catcher
Ivan Rodriguez (.371, .318)
Miguel Olivo (.392, .338)
Carlos Ruiz (.418, .366)

Olivo snapped out of a small slump, and Pudge is still showing life. Ruiz is slightly hampered by a knee issue, so keep an eye on that over the next week.

Problem Children
A.J. Pierzynski (.241, .300)
Chris Snyder (.340, .352)
Miguel Montero (.498, .360)
Mike Napoli (.392, .338)

It sounds like the White Sox may be open to dealing Pierzynski, and while leaving The Cell may not be the best thing, getting traded to Texas wouldn’t be a bad idea.

The Rest of ‘Em
Jeff Clement (.247, .323)
John Buck (.389, .349)
Chris Iannetta (.244, .334)
Rod Barajas (.361, .327)
Ronny Paulino (.350, .328)
Carlos Santana ( – , .348)
Jake Fox (.261, .317)

I can’t even look at Iannetta’s name without shaking my head, turning towards Denver, and making an obscene gesture.

Authors Note: I know there has been some interest in this, and I’ve never stated a public policy on it, so I figured I’d make it known. Feel free to send me an email with a question about your team, using the email address hyperlinked below this post. Of course, you can also send it to the RotoGraphs Mailbag, if that is more your cup of tea.


Rankings Update: Catchers

Back after a week lost to illness, here are your catcher rankings. wOBA numbers are listed as “(current wOBA, ZiPS ROS)”. If the wOBA numbers are a couple of points off, don’t sweat it, because it’s just me writing these things up ahead of time.

Big Three
Joe Mauer (.388, .414)
Brian McCann (.347, .370)
Victor Martinez (.316, .364)

Victor had himself a week. He still has a nice LD%, unlucky BABIP and bad HR/FB%, but they are getting closer to normal. Enjoy the rest of your season with one of the games top catchers.

Happy to Have
Matt Wieters (.334, .341)
Russell Martin (.309, .340)
Jorge Posada (.406, .351)
Geovany Soto (.484, .366)

Half of the time Wieters puts the ball in play, it’s on the ground. Not good. If Jorge wasn’t so old, I’d be more excited about his start. Oh, and a HR/FB% of 27.8% doesn’t help his cause, either. Geo Soto has been tearing it up, and he’s walking more than he’s striking out thus far.

Name That Molina
Bengie Molina (.369, .324)
Yadier Molina (.358, .337)
Ryan Doumit (.364, .346)

Bengie’s average will go down, but he should show more power than he’s displayed thus far. If Ryan Doumit wouldn’t get injured every year, he’d be so much cooler.

I Am Jack’s Catcher
Kurt Suzuki (.367, .336)
Carlos Ruiz (.388, .339)
Ivan Rodriguez (.400, .299)
John Baker (.301, .320)

Suzuki wasn’t all that impressive early on, and an intercostal strain seems like something that could bother him when he comes back. I’m not overly worried yet, so let’s wait before pronouncing him dead.

Problem Children
A.J. Pierzynski (.253, .319)
Jeff Clement (.231, .340)
Miguel Olivo (.348, .313)
Chris Snyder (.372, .354)
Miguel Montero (.497, .351)
Mike Napoli (.321, .362)

When Pierzynski’s .202 BABIP regresses to the mean, it’s going to be glorious. Glorious! For someone who is supposed to be a power hitter, Jeffy likes to hit the ball on the ground. Is it okay if I call him Jeffy?

The Rest of ‘Em
Chris Iannetta (.243, .343)
Rod Barajas (.355, .308)
Jake Fox (.247, .326)
John Buck (.353, .317)
Carlos Santana

Welcome Fox and Buck to this list. And as far as Iannetta goes, getting sent to the minors is a good thing, right?


Mauer Sidelined; Ramos Recalled

Joe Mauer owners received some bad news on Sunday, as Minnesota Twins manager Rod Gardenhire said that Mauer (bruised left heel) may be week-to-week as opposed to day-to-day. With Mauer ailing, the Twins summoned prospect Wilson Ramos from Triple-A Rochester.

Ramos, 22, signed out of Venezuela in 2004 and ranked as the second-best talent in the Minnesota system (per Baseball America and Marc Hulet) entering the season. BA also named Ramos as its Winter Player of the Year after he mashed as a member of the Tigres de Aragua.

The 6-0, 220 pound righty batter has a career .288/.336/.441 line in the minors, including a .317/.341/.454 triple-slash during a 2009 season spent mostly at Double-A. Ramos is very aggressive at the dish (career six percent walk rate), but he makes a good deal of contact and has some pop, as his 18.1 percent K rate and .153 ISO attest.

While Ramos seems capable of becoming a quality starting catcher in the majors one day, he has struggled to stay healthy: he broke the tip of his left middle finger and injured his hamstring last year, missing nearly three months total. Also, Ramos doesn’t have much experience in the upper levels of the minors. He took 214 trips to the plate at Double-A last year and was off to a slow start at Triple-A this season (.179/.214/.328 in 70 PA, with three walks and 15 punch outs). CHONE projected a .263/.303/.394 line prior to 2010, and ZiPS had a .256/.297/.369 forecast. Four-for-five start aside, Ramos might not hit the ground running.

Here are some other backstops with relatively low ownership rates who may be available in your league:

Mike Napoli, Angels (owned in 51% of Yahoo leagues)

Some fantasy players abandoned Napoli due to his anemic showing so far (.184/.298/.265, .271 wOBA). However, Jeff Mathis (fractured right wrist) is on the shelf and Bobby Wilson (concussion, ankle) got hit by a freight train named Teixeira. ZiPS projects a .356 rest-of-the-season wOBA for Napoli.

Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks (23%)

With Miguel Montero (left knee surgery) out, Snyder is getting the bulk of the starts behind the plate for the D-Backs. Snyder suffered a back injury and had some lousy luck on balls put in play in 2009 (.237 BABIP). In 2010, however, he’s off to a .262/.357/.508 (.373 wOBA) start. He is projected to post a .352 wOBA for the rest of the season.

Nick Hundley, Padres (6%)

Hundley has received 16 starts to Yorvit Torrealba’s nine thus far, and he’s slashing .273/.365/.418 (.344 wOBA). Hundley won’t continue to boast a .350+ BABIP, so expect that average to drop. Even so, he hit a decent .238/.313/.406 in ’09 and possesses solid secondary skills for a catcher (career 8.3 BB% and a .147 ISO). ZiPS isn’t all that optimistic, though, with a .300 wOBA projected from here on out.


Iannetta’s demotion boosts Olivo’s value

After posting a .368 wOBA with 34 homers over the last two season, Rockies’ catcher Chris Iannetta finally appeared to be free from the shackles of Yorvit Torrealba and on his way to a full-time starting job in 2009. He was a top 15 fantasy catcher coming into the season, but things have hardly gone according to plan.

Iannetta woke up this morning with a .243 wOBA with more strikeouts (11) than times on base (8), and his playing time greatly reduced. The Rockies’ are close to putting him out of his April misery, as indications are that the team is ready to send him back to the minors. That means their catching job belongs to none other than Miguel Olivo .

Olivo has started seven of Colorado’s last ten games, and he’s quietly leading all big league backstops with five homers. The guy has yet to meet a pitch he didn’t like, and he’s very much a known quantity at this point; if given 400 or more plate appearances, you’ll get about 15 long balls, 50 RBI, and a terrifyingly bad OBP. Thankfully, in standard 5×5 leagues, that last part isn’t a concern. Coors Field still boosted homers by a little more than 8% last season, so there’s another plus.

Olivo is still available in 49% of Yahoo! leagues at the moment, and is worth the pickup if you’re in a two catcher setup, or are dealing with some injuries. His .311 AVG (.375 BABIP) isn’t going to last obviously, but you can enjoy it while it does. The HR and RBI are where it’s really at with Olivo.


Rankings Update: Catcher

Here are your catcher rankings. Being a day late and a dollar short is a good thing, right? Numbers are still preseason FANS projections, unless otherwise noted.

Big Three
Joe Mauer (.409 wOBA)
Brian McCann (.378)
Victor Martinez (.373)

I didn’t think I would ever consider it, but V-Mart needs to get his act together or he’s in danger of moving down the list. Consider yourself on notice, Victor.

Happy to Have
Matt Wieters (.364)
Russell Martin (.346)
Jorge Posada (.361)
Geovany Soto (.354)

No changes in this order. I wouldn’t expect much change for the rest of the year, either. Soto is still heating up, and I’m really glad I have him right now.

Name That Molina
Kurt Suzuki (.332)
Bengie Molina (.305)
Yadier Molina (.330)

I was considering moving Suzuki down in actual rank this week, but hitting three homers keeps him afloat. He’s only hit three line drives all year, so that’s not a good sign going forward.

I Am Jack’s Catcher
Carlos Ruiz (.331)
Ryan Doumit (.330)
John Baker (.333)
Ivan Rodriguez (.286)

You all should be ashamed of yourselves for making fun of the great Edward Norton. Just for that, you will have the privilege of reading my posts with references from his movies all year long. You did it to yourself, America.

Wait and See
A.J. Pierzynski (.313)
Jeff Clement (.350, ZiPS and CHONE)

A.J. and Clement are both better than they are playing thus far, so just hang back and let lady luck get back on their side.

Problem Children
Chris Snyder (.331)
Chris Iannetta (.366)
Mike Napoli (.363)
Miguel Olivo (.312)
Miguel Montero (.352)

Olivo makes his debut on the list. I like the power he’s shown, but a 41.7% HR/FB rate is ridiculous. You really don’t expect him to slug .707 this year, do you? Once he starts cooling off, Iannetta will get more at bats and will shine.

The Rest of ‘Em
Carlos Santana (.348, CHONE)
Rod Barajas (.296)
Jeff Mathis (.276)
Kelly Shoppach (.341)

Can anyone call The Tribe and beg them to call up Santana? Please? Also, Jason Kendall falls all the way off of the list because he sucks.


Mathis hits the DL

Angels’ catcher Jeff Mathis will miss the next six to eight weeks with a broken wrist, bringing joy to all of you Mike Napoli owners out there. I wrote about Mike Scioscia’s inexplicable and continued loyalty to Mathis last week, advising you to just hold tight to Napoli and wait for a switch to be made or an injury to occur. Well, the injury has occurred.

Napoli’s only competition for playing time now is Bobby Wilson, who was only on the roster as the third catcher because he’s out of the options and the team doesn’t want to lose him to waivers. Hard to blame them. The 27-year-old Wilson has appeared in one game and has gotten just one plate appearance this year, though he has a reputation of being a solid defensive catcher. Never underestimate the power of Nichols’ Law, so don’t be surprised that the less Wilson hits, the more he plays because of his defense.

For you Napoli owners, you’ve finally got a chance to enjoy into some of that power. He started behind the dish tonight, but he’s batting ninth, so the RBI opportunities might be a little scarce at the outset. A homerun is a homerun though, and homeruns from catchers in fantasy is always a boost. Napoli is still available in 45% of Yahoo! leagues, so run out and grab him if you need an upgrade behind the plate.


Rankings Update: Catcher

Here are your updated catcher rankings. I’m going to stick with FANS projected wOBA for now, with a switch to 2010 stats after the first month is over.

Big Three
Joe Mauer (.409 wOBA)
Brian McCann (.378)
Victor Martinez (.373)

Like I said last week, and probably will every week, this isn’t going to change without an injury occurring.

Happy to Have
Matt Wieters (.364)
Russell Martin (.346)
Jorge Posada (.361)
Geovany Soto (.354)
Kurt Suzuki (.332)

Geo Soto not only moves into this group, but he also passes Suzuki in the process. Soto started out extremely slow, but it looks like he may have found his rhythm and will see plenty of playing time because of it. As long as Sweet Lou is confident in Geo, I will be, too.

Name That Molina
Bengie Molina (.305)
Yadier Molina (.330)

Bengie, along with a good chunk of the Giants offense, is hitting well right out of the gate. Yadier is going to give you batting average, and the fact that he has already hit two homers is a good sign. Maybe.

Nameless
Ryan Doumit (.330)
Carlos Ruiz (.331)
A.J. Pierzynski (.313)
John Baker (.333)

I’m not going to lie to you; I couldn’t think of a name for this group. Maybe it should be called “Unexcited”, “The Butcher, John Baker, and a Candlestick Maker”, or “I am Jack’s Catcher.” None of these guys do anything to make me want them on my roster, but I’ll pick them up if I have to. Also, if you don’t get the vague pop culture reference, maybe you should have a Edward Norton movie marathon.

Questionable
Chris Iannetta (.366)
Jeff Clement (.350, ZiPS and CHONE)
Ivan Rodriguez (.286)
Chris Snyder (.331)
Miguel Montero (.352)

So many question marks, so little production. Each of these guys has their upside, but all have their own set of problems. I really hope Miguel Olivo gets in a fiery car wreck, or whatever horrible accident Dave decides to go with this week.

I Hate Mike Scioscia
Rod Barajas (.296)
Carlos Santana (.348, CHONE)
Mike Napoli (.363)
Jeff Mathis (.276)

I’m moving Santana above Napoli and Mathis, because the LAA catcher situation is going to be a crapshoot all year long.

The Rest of ‘Em
Jason Kendall (.290)
Kelly Shoppach (.341)

Shoppach is on the DL with a knee injury, which is being listed as a sprain but could in fact require surgery. He wasn’t getting a whole lot of playing time to begin with, but this isn’t good.


What to do with Mike Napoli?

Coming into the season, most considered Angels’ backstop Mike Napoli to be one of the dozen best fantasy catchers in the game, and why wouldn’t they? He had a .362 wOBA with 20 homers and 56 RBI in 432 plate appearances last season, a year after going .399-20-49 in 264 PA in 2008. CHONE forecast another 19 homers in 2010, which is fantasy gold from a catcher.

And yet, Mike Scioscia loves him some Jeff Mathis. Just loves him. Mathis has started seven of the team’s nine games (including today), relegating Napoli to backup/pinch-hitting duty. Even worse, Mathis is fueling Scioscia’s mancrush by hitting .350/.364/.500 with a .368 wOBA in the early going. However, expecting that to last is just plain foolish. Mathis has a .266 career wOBA in close to 900 plate appearances, and his slugging percentage is his 31 points lower than Napoli’s on-base percentage. I’m well aware that Mathis has a good defensive rep with Napoli has quite the opposite, but sheesh.

Napoli is owned in 67% of Yahoo! leagues, and 100% of his owners are frustrated by his lack of playing time. There is some hope though. The Halos are just 2-6 with 29 runs scored, and when teams start to lose games in bunches and struggle to score runs, one of the first things the manager will do is mix up the lineup. With his never-ending contract and status as The Greatest Manager Who Ever Lived™, Scioscia should know that swapping Mathis with Napoli is the easiest move to make if he wants his team to score more runs. Plus there’s always the possibility of an injury, given the nature of the position.

Until that happens, the fantasy owners suffer. The possibility of 20 jacks from a catcher is too good to let go this early in the season, so dropping him shouldn’t even be a consideration. Hold on to Napoli for the time being and just ride out the storm. Try to grab Chris Snyder (11% owned) or heck, even Mathis and his somewhat hot start (4%) to hold you over. Napoli and his bat will find their way into the lineup eventually, at some point Scioscia won’t have much of a choice.


Rankings Update: Catcher

Back for week two, here are your catcher rankings. Since we are only a week into the season, I am still going to list the players’ wOBA projection from the FANS. However, some of the rankings have moved based on playing time and a small bit based on their opening week’s performance.

Big Three
Joe Mauer (.409 wOBA)
Brian McCann (.378)
Victor Martinez (.373)

None of these three moved after week one. With their track record, I wouldn’t expect this group to change all season barring injury.

Happy to Have
Matt Wieters (.364)
Russell Martin (.346)
Jorge Posada (.361)
Kurt Suzuki (.332)

I really like what I’ve seen out of Martin, thus far, so let’s hope that continues. Jorge has been solid, as always, and Suzuki is looking good out of the gate, as well.

Cautiously Optimistic
Geovany Soto (.354)
Ryan Doumit (.330)
Yadier Molina (.330)

Moving down is Mr. Soto, but I still like him. I think at some point Lou will realize that he needs to get him more AB’s, which will boost him back up to the bottom of the second tier. Yadier moves up all the way from number 16, due to his early showing of power. I know it’s early and sample size is an issue, but he has me dreaming of 15 dongers at this point.

Recycled
Bengie Molina (.305)
A.J. Pierzynski (.313)
Carlos Ruiz (.331)
Rod Barajas (.296)

Ruiz is the big mover here, moving up seven spots. This isn’t due to his fast start, but more me re-evaluating my rankings. Most of it comes from the fact that some of the players above him needed to move down due to playing time issues, but nevertheless, Ruiz moves up. Barajas also debuts on the list, and it looks like he’ll get a big chunk of playing time in The Big Apple.

Questionable
Miguel Montero (.352)
Chris Iannetta (.366)
Jeff Clement (.350, ZiPS and CHONE)
Ivan Rodriguez (.286)
John Baker (.333)

To be fair to Montero, who fell this far due to an unknown timetable for his return from a torn meniscus, here is what I said about him before the MRI results came back: “And the first move up goes to Montero, who moves up one slot and into the second tier. He had an injury scare recently, but the reports I have read seem to indicate that he’s fine.

Pudge makes his debut on the list, due to his move to the NL and his nice start. Jesus Flores may not be ready to make an impact at all this year, so Pudge will see significant time behind the plate. Iannetta moves down due to a time share with Miguel Olivo. I didn’t expect Iannetta to lose playing time so early, so I’m expecting this to last all season. Such a shame, too.

Screw You, Mr. Manager
Mike Napoli (.363)
Kelly Shoppach (.341)

I like power from my catcher hole. I really do. But, Shoppach and Napoli aren’t seeing much time, and in Napoli’s case, may not for awhile.

The Rest of ‘Em
Carlos Santana (.348, CHONE)
Jeff Mathis (.276)
Jason Kendall (.290)

Yes, I’d rather have a guy in the minors than Kendall or Mathis. And yes, I’d rather have Mathis’ current backup over him.