A little later in the day than you’re used to, but it will be worth the wait. I promise.

My Hero
Carlos Santana

That’s right. Santana has been tremendous, and while our sample size is small, I have no worries about his ability to keep it up. I’d like the K-rate to drop a couple percent, but I suppose we can live for only league average in one category. Personally, I am going to love paring him with Pujols in my keeper league.

Big Three
Joe Mauer
Victor Martinez
Brian McCann

Victor’s injury hampers his value, so he slides to number three.

Power. So Much Power
Miguel Olivo
Mike Napoli
John Buck

I’ve given up on trying to predict a batting average drop for John Buck. He had a BABIP below .300 in June, yet hit .270. Looks like he’s for real, and I’m buying in.

Happy to Have
Kurt Suzuki
Jorge Posada
Miguel Montero
Buster Posey
Geovany Soto

Montero may have a small sample, but it’s a great one. He’s hitting over 30% line drives, and has cut his K-rate while raising his BB-rate. He’s not going to hit .394 all year (.441 BABIP), but his line will be better than it was last year.

I am Jack’s Catcher
Ryan Doumit
Matt Wieters
John Jaso
Rod Barajas
Ivan Rodriguez
Ronny Paulino

Jack isn’t very picky when it comes to his catchers. Jaso was getting calls to move up, but as our sample grew we learned more and more, and my expectations didn’t really change.

The Rest of ‘Em
Bengie Molina
Russell Martin
Carlos Ruiz
Nick Hundley
Yadier Molina
Jason Kendall
A.J. Pierzynski

Bengie’s arrival in Texas should help his numbers a bit, so don’t be afraid to give him a shot. I considered Jason Castro, but I don’t see him doing much this year. He’s a better option in NL-only keeper leagues, but that’s the only place I’d give him a shot.

Trading season is just waiting to explode, and the Rangers made the first strike yesterday by acquiring Bengie Molina. The deal doesn’t have much impact in the grand scheme of things, but in the world of fantasy baseball it does give the elder Molina brother a little bit more value.

Obviously, he’s going from one extreme to the other in terms of run environment. The Giants as a team have a .320 wOBA and play in a park that’s been pretty neutral over the last three seasons offensively (using ESPN’s park factors), while the Rangers boast a .343 wOBA while playing a park that’s inflated offense about 12.4% over that same three year time period. That alone is going to help his fantasy offensive output, which currently stands at .257-3-17.

After three straight seasons of 80+ RBI, fantasy gold for a catcher, (R) ZiPS sees just 36 more steaks with a .265 AVG coming Molina’s way. Believe it or not, that’s the sixth highest predicted RBI total for a catcher by the system, behind the usual cast of characters (Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, Geovany Soto, Kurt Suzuki), and ahead of guys like Jorge Posada and Matt Wieters and Yadier Molina. If nothing else, at least the spreadsheets are on Bengie’s side.

I wouldn’t recommend relying on Molina as your top backstop (unless you’re in an exceptionally deep league, or something) just because the guy’s less that three weeks away from his 36th birthday and has one foot in the batter’s box and one in the glue factory. If you’re dealing with an injury (say, to Martinez), then Bengie will help you keep your head above water for the time being. He’s not a top fantasy backstop, but there are worse emergency options.

As if the Red Sox didn’t have enough injury issues with Josh Beckett, Dustin Pedroia, and basically their entire outfield on the disabled list, they lost Victor Martinez to a fractured thumb over the weekend. A top tier fantasy catcher is impossible to replace, so hopefully he’ll be back after the required 15 days and all you V-Mart owners won’t have to suffer too long.

In the meantime, here’s a few backstops you can find on the waiver wire to help keep your head above water, starting with Martinez’s replacement…

Jason Varitek | Red Sox | 6% owned

Varitek has a very strange stat line this season. He has only 23 hits in 98 PA (.258 AVG), but he’s got seven homers and a .303 ISO. Those seven bombs come with only 14 RBI too. Yeah, it’s just small sample size noise, but it’s still kinda funny. (R) ZiPS projects a .227 AVG with a .178 ISO, and realistically that’s about the best you can hope for out of Varitek for the next two weeks or so.

Ronny Paulino | Marlins | 16%

Very quietly, Paulino has posted a respectable .343 wOBA this season, though he’s hit .322/.373/.435 in his last 126 plate appearances. He’s an absolute horse behind the dish, perhaps to the point that you have to worry about him turning into a pumpkin in the second half. Paulino’s started the team’s last 19 (!!!) games, though he did have the benefit of three off days during that stretch. (R) ZiPS sees a regression back to .274/.332/.397 the rest of the way, but at least he won’t kill you in AVG during V-Mart’s absence.

John Jaso | Rays | 6%

Tampa has been platooning Jaso with Kelly Shoppach ever since they decided to send Dioner Navarro to the minors, and six of Tampa’s next seven games come against righthanded pitchers. Jaso is a must own in OBP leagues (.398 OBP), but his .271 AVG and 25 RBI still have value elsewhere. I’m a sucker for guys who walk more than they strikeout, though (R) ZiPS seems him falling to .269/.354/.368 the rest of the way.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

You comment, and I listen. Seriously, your input is very important. I’m only one person with one vantage point, and challenging my rankings makes me revisit them and rethink my evaluations. We’re going to continue on without including any stats, so without further ado…

The Big Three
Victor Martinez
Joe Mauer
Brian McCann

Victor holds on to the number one spot, and that shouldn’t change (barring injury). McCann continues to try remedies for his vision, so we may see his batting eye improve sometime soon.

Happy To Have
Jorge Posada
Mike Napoli
Kurt Suzuki
Miguel Olivo

Want power without completely killing your batting average? You’re going to have to pay for it. Olivo will always have to look over his shoulder, but I think the Rockies will give him the benefit of the doubt and stick with him as long as they possibly can.

The Prospects
Carlos Santana
Buster Posey

I am loving Santana going forward. While our sample is small, he is showing signs of being worth all of the hype. And more. Posey may not show much power right away, but he should develop more as his career progresses.

I am Jack’s Catcher
Ryan Doumit
Miguel Montero
Geovany Soto
Matt Wieters
John Jaso

I think Sweet Lou just likes to screw with fantasy owners. Jaso seems to be the real deal, while Montero and Doumit could be higher if I trusted them to stay healthy.

Buckaroos
Russell Martin
John Buck
Ivan Rodriguez
Rod Barajas
Carlos Ruiz
Ronny Paulino
Nick Hundley

Martin drops way down, as does Ruiz. Pudge is back and started hitting right away, and he is fitting in nicely with the Nationals. Hundley continues to impress me, and his added playing time has been nice.

The Rest of ‘Em
Bengie Molina
Yadier Molina
Chris Iannetta
Jason Kendall

I’ll always love Iannetta, and am looking forward to someone taking him off the Rockies hands in the offseason (if not the trade deadline).

Houston is trying to fix their problem. [/ lame]

The Astros shook up a bit of their roster earlier today, designating three mediocre at best players for assignment and replacing them with younger players that at the very lost offer hope. One of those players is catcher Jason Castro, the team’s consensus top prospect and the 10th overall pick in the 2008 draft.

Usually teams will look for stars when they’re picking in the top ten, but the general belief is that the Astros reached a bit and instead landed themselves a rock solid, every day backstop. There’s nothing wrong with that, productive every day catchers are damn valuable players, but when a (theoretically) rebuilding team has a pick that high, you’d like to see shoot for the moon a little more. But I digress.

As predicted, Castro has climbed the minor league ladder very quickly, shooting from High-A to Double-A in 2009 before starting this season in Triple-A. His combined batting line last year sat at .300/.380/.446, and he’s followed that up with a .265/.365/.355 (.301 BABIP) effort in 244 plate appearances this year. The data at MinorLeagueSplits.com suggests that Castro has been beating the ball into the ground with season (48.6 GB%, 17.9 LD%, 33.5 FB%), which certainly helps explain the sub-.100 ISO. Last year those totals were 37.9%, 17.3%, 44.5%, respectively.

CHONE projects a .249/.313/.351 batting line 382 plate appearances this year, which isn’t terrible for a rookie catcher. Castro’s a lefty batter that will be playing in a park better known for aiding righthanders, and there’s certainly no help to be found in the lineup around him (.276 team wOBA). The Astros have announced that it’s his job on a full-time basis, and playing time certainty counts for something. I wouldn’t expect Castro to drastically outproduce his CHONE projection, so the majority of his value comes in NL-only or deeper mixed leagues.

If you’re looking for a young and productive catcher, grab Carlos Santana if he’s still available in your league (owned in 45% of Yahoo! leagues). Dude’s got five doubles, two homers, four singles, seven walks, and three strikeouts in his nine games so far. Hard to argue with that. John Jaso (7% owned) is still hitting at a .291/.413/.425 clip and has been getting playing time at DH recently, so he’s another option as well. I’d target either before Castro, even in keeper leagues.

Another summer weekend, and another couple of players for your pleasure. Enjoy!

Miguel Montero, Arizona (45%)
If you’ve been reading these Waiver Wire pieces, you know we usually talk about players owned in fewer leagues than Montero. In fact, we’ve even started specializing in single-digit players, to the consternation of some shallow-league owners. Well, here’s a player that, though he’s owned in a fair amount of leagues, should be owned in at least twice as many leagues as he is. Montero put up 670+ plate appearances from 2008 to 2009, and in those PAs, he showed a strikeout rate right at 20%, an ISO above .180, and a strong batting average for a catcher. Put those pieces together and he’s easily a top-twelve catcher and should be owned in all mixed leagues. Now that he’s due back this weekend and is practically begging his team to activate him, it’s time to make sure he’s not on the wire in your league.

David Hernandez, Baltimore (6%)
Don’t fall over yourself to pick up the latest Oriole to accrue a save – it doesn’t seem that others are either. They might have heard that Alfredo Simon was called Shutdown Sauce and that Hernandez couldn’t overcome a nickname like that. There’s even the forgotten footnote Michael Gonzalez rattling around in that bullpen too. Here’s the thing, though. There’s a new sherriff in town – “interim” manager Juan Samuel – and he just recently reported that Gonzalez only hit the mid-80s in his rehab start. Simon’s K/9 in the minor leagues was a mediocre 7.4, so he’s not an obvious candidate for the role. Of course, he racked up those numbers as a starter, and could be expected to bump them up in a short relief role, but still. He was more of a fill-in guy than a person being groomed for the role. So finally we get to Hernandez, who racked up a save and has been pushed to the bullpen by the better prospects coming up behind him. With his gaudy strikeout rates in the minors (10.4 K/9), and his inability to translate those rates to the majors (6.02 K/9 career), Hernandez was a conundrum wrapped in an enigma. He’s certainly a fly ball pitcher in the wrong park (29.2% groundball rate career), and he’s really not showing it as a starter. Here’s thinking that he can recover that nice strikeout rate in short stints and actually step forward as the closer of the future. If Gonzalez truly is only hitting the mid-80s in his rehab, it wouldn’t surprise anyone to hear surgery in his future. Again.

After a short hiatus, here are your catcher rankings. I’m going to experiment with not including any numbers next to the players names, for various reasons. If you really feel like you need them, let me know in the comments.

The Big Three
Victor Martinez
Joe Mauer
Brian McCann

Things change, people. I never thought Mauer would show the power like he did last year, but he has fallen way back. Martinez will give you a more balanced attack, so he gets the number one spot.

Happy to Have
Jorge Posada
Geovany Soto
Kurt Suzuki
Ryan Doumit
Mike Napoli

Even though Jorge is fresh off a DL stint, I had to give him the number four slot. Kendry Morales getting hurt was a godsend for Napoli. He won’t have to play behind the plate all of the time, and his bat sticks in the lineup. The Angels may look to trade for a first baseman, but until then, Napoli has great value.

I am Jack’s Catcher
Matt Wieters
Russell Martin
Miguel Olivo
Yadier Molina

What’s up, Wieters?

Buckaroos
Carlos Ruiz
John Buck
Buster Posey
Bengie Molina
Rod Barajas
Miguel Montero

Miguel Montero should be back soon, so keep an eye on him. He was in my top-10 before he got injured, and he’s only this low because he’s not back yet and knee injuries scare me when it comes to catchers.

The Prospect
Carlos Santana

Santana should be up within the week.

The Rest of ‘Em
Ronny Paulino
Ivan Rodriguez
Chris Snyder
Chris Iannetta
A.J. Pierzynski
Jeff Clement
Nick Hundley

I still have a little hope left for Clement. Just a little. I’ve heard the name Ryan Hanigan thrown around a lot in the comments, but he just doesn’t get enough AB’s to justify a spot. Hundley gets slightly more playing time, and the two are probably interchangeable.

George Kottaras, Brewers (Owned in 1% of Yahoo Leagues)

With Gregg Zaun (torn labrum) possibly done for the season, Kottaras is drawing the bulk of starting assignments behind the dish for Milwaukee.

The former Padres and Red Sox prospect owns a career .269/.367/.444 line in the minor leagues, including a .239/.331/.424 showing in Triple-A. Kottaras, 27, displayed good patience (13.3 BB%) and pop (.175 ISO) on the farm as a backstop, but he was often panned for his lack of defensive prowess — Sean Smith’s Total Zone system rates Kottaras as 18 runs below average during his minor league tenure.

Milwaukee is apparently willing to stomach Kottaras’ adventurous D in exchange for his bat, and with a strong showing in 2010, the lefty batter now has a .230/.353/.443 line and a .350 wOBA in 215 career major league plate appearances. Kottaras has rarely gotten himself out, swinging at just 15.6% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25-27% MLB average recently).

Kottaras will have to contend with prospect Jonathan Lucroy for playing time, but he’s worth a roster spot if he continues to get penciled into the lineup. ZiPS projects a .237/.341/.412 triple-slash for the rest of the year, with a .338 wOBA.

Kris Medlen, Braves (10%)

Eno Sarris mentioned the 24-year-old as a potential steal last month, and since then, Medlen has continued to deal.

A 10th-round pick out of Santa Ana Junior College in the 2006 draft, Medlen murderized minor league batters, first as a reliever and then out of the starting rotation. In 227 total innings (79 ‘pen appearances, 23 starts), the 5-10, 190 pound righty punched out 10.4 batters per nine innings, issuing just 2 BB/9.

In the majors, Medlen has 8.38 K/9, 3.03 BB/9 and a 3.69 xFIP in 116 innings (46 relief stints, nine starts). In its 2009 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America said that the converted shortstop featured a 92-94 MPH fastball and a plus curveball that reached the high-80’s, as well as a solid slider and changeup. His repertoire in the big leagues has looked decidedly different: Medlen’s sitting about 90 MPH with his heater, relying heavily upon an 81 MPH changeup while adding in some high-70’s curves.

That might not scream “power pitcher,” and Medlen has predictably whiffed fewer batters as a starter. But, according to Trip Somers’ texasleaguers site, Medlen hasn’t lost zip on his fastball while facing lineups multiple times, and he’s doing an outstanding job of locating the fastball, change and curve for strikes.

Everyone wanted it to happen except for the Giants, or at least it seemed that way. San Francisco finally called on top prospect Buster Posey today, and will start him at first base against the Diamondbacks tonight. He’s best known as a catcher and he’d provide the most value to the team from behind the plate, but for fantasy purposes, the more first base Posey plays, the better.

It’s Fantasy 101: he has catcher eligibility but will play at least part of the time at a less demanding position, which translates not only more at-bats in general, but (theoretically) better offensive production given the decreased wear and tear. It’s a win-win.

The Florida State product simply annihilated the minors during his season-plus stint there, racking up a .333/.427/.552 batting line in 750 plate appearances, almost all of them while squatting behind the plate. Baseball America ranked Posey as the 7th best prospect in the game coming into the season, calling him “a pure hitter with terrific strike-zone awareness, and his clean, unfettered swing allows him to drive pitches from pole to pole,” though they acknowledge that power isn’t his game. It’s not hyperbole to say he has the best plate approach of anyone in the organization, big leagues included.

CHONE projects a .329 wOBA in 2010, while ZiPS pegs him for .333. Both of those obliterate the .309 wOBA starting catcher Bengie Molina has put in 40 games this year, nevermind the .308 wOBA he fashioned last season. His homerun power might be minimal at the outset considering his home park and some of the parks in the NL West, but Posey should contribute solid AVG and OBP (if your league counts that) while surely chipping in a few RBI as well.

Posey is owned in just 15% of Yahoo! leagues, and right now he’s only eligible at catcher. He’ll pick up 1B eligibility in a week or so, and while it’s not terribly important, a little flexibility never hurt anyone. If your struggling to find production from the catcher’s spot – perhaps you’re stuck with an injury fill in like Francisco Cervelli – then there’s probably no better option on the waiver wire right now.

Minnesota Twins recalled SS Trevor Plouffe from Triple-A Rochester.

Plouffe, who will turn 24 in June, was the 20th overall pick in the 2004 draft. The California prep product touched the low-90’s on the mound, but the Twins liked his potential to develop into a quality defender at a premium position and handed him a $1.5 million bonus.

During his first three years in pro ball, Plouffe scuffled at the plate. He hit .283/.340/.380 in the Rookie-Level Appalachian League in ’04, then followed up with a .223/.300/.345 triple-slash in the Low-A Midwest League in 2005 and a .246/.333/.347 line in the High-A State Florida State League in 2006. Plouffe showed a decent eye in A-Ball, walking in about 10 percent of his plate appearances, but he didn’t hit with much authority.

Upon reaching the upper levels of the minors, Plouffe has taken more of a grip-it-and-rip-it approach. At the Double-A level, he batted .272/.326/.410, walking just 6.7 percent and bumping his Isolated Power to a still-modest .129. In Triple-A, Plouffe has an overall .267/.317/.427 line. He has drawn a walk 6.5 percent, with a .160 ISO.

While he has mostly played shortstop, Plouffe has also dabbled at second and third base to improve his appeal as a big league utility man. With Minnesota, Plouffe will provide an extra infield glove while J.J. Hardy (wrist) continues his rehab. The odds of Plouffe becoming a solid every day starter appear slim at this point, as his shortstop D hasn’t been as advertised and his bat projects as below-average–CHONE and ZiPS both had sub-.300 wOBA forecasts for him prior to 2010.

Milwaukee Brewers placed C Gregg Zaun (strained right shoulder) on the DL; purchased the contract of C Jonathan Lucroy

The Brew Crew’s third-round pick in the 2007 draft, Lucroy has generally shown fantastic plate discipline and mid-range pop during his minor league career. The Louisiana-Lafayette product, who will also turn 24 in June, beat up on less experienced pitching in the Rookie-Level Pioneer League in 2007. He then hit a combined .301/.377/.495 between the Low-A South Atlantic League and the High-A Florida State League in 2008, walking in 10.6 percent of his PA with a .194 ISO.

Last year, Lucroy moved up to the Double-A Southern League and posted a .267/.380/.418 line. His power declined against more advanced hurlers (.151 ISO), but he drew a free pass 15.4 percent of the time while lowering his K rate from 17.7 in ’08 to 15.6 in ’09.

He began 2010 back at Huntsville, but earned a promotion to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League after getting off to a .452/.500/.524 start in 47 PA. With Nashville, Lucroy has struggled in a small sample (.238/.265/.363 in 83 PA). If there’s any concern, it’s that he hasn’t shown his typically discerning eye: he has walked just 5.3 percent between the two levels. Given his track record, it’s probably just a blip on the radar.

Lucroy’s defense has drawn mixed reviews–before 2010, Baseball America said he “needs to improve his game-calling skills,” and that “scouts are divided over whether Lucroy projects as a regular or a backup in the majors.” For what it’s worth, Lucroy’s D rates well according to Sean Smith’s Total Zone system.

Prior to the season kicking off, CHONE projected a .250/.337/.382 line (.322 wOBA) in the bigs for Lucroy, while ZiPS envisioned a .245/.326/.378 (.316 wOBA) triple-slash. With Zaun out, Lucroy will get whatever playing time doesn’t go to George Kottaras. The former Padres and Red Sox prospect has a .237/.336/.402 rest-of-season ZiPS projection, with a .331 wOBA.