Yesterday, I unveiled the top 10 list of good names with regards to both No Doubt percentage and Just Enough percentage from the home run classification buckets on ESPN Home Run Tracker. Today, I will present the negative nellies. These hitters are at greater risk for HR/FB rate decline this season, so it might not be a bad idea to use as a tie-breaker if debating between a hitter on the list and someone else.
The Texas Rangers’ hopes for contention in the strong AL West depends on whether their starting pitching can take a step forward. The club enters the year with more uncertainty at the position than they’ve experienced in recent seasons. In the past, the team had enough depth at the position to survive a let-down or injury. With Colby Lewis and Neftali Feliz out until at least mid-season, the club could be in trouble if any of their top-five options falter.
It’s pretty rare for a player who was still a rookie at age-29 to ever stumble into a full-time role. But that’s precisely what Justin Ruggiano is looking to do this spring. A minor leaguer since 2004, Ruggiano didn’t lose his major-league rookie status until 2011, when he was 29-years-old. Not surprisingly, the list of 29-year-old rookies that go on to have successful careers is pretty short, and the Miami Marlins seemed to agree at first, as Ruggiano began 2012 in the minors. But a combination of his performance, and the club’s need for hitting, propelled Ruggiano back into the majors at age-30. This time, he didn’t disappoint. After 320 plate appearances with a .313/.374/.535 slash line, and a .390 wOBA, Ruggiano has emerged as a sleeper. But given the track record of players with his path to the majors, he’s already fighting against the odds.
Yesterday, fellow RotoGrapher Chris Cwik outlined why he considered Orioles starter Chris Tillman a sleeper. He made some valid points and even sprinkled in some of the negatives that make my argument a bit easier to make. I was actually a fan of Tillman’s last year and picked him up in several leagues shortly after his promotion. But my excitement quickly dwindled and I have revoked my membership in the Chris Tillman Fan Club. This is why.
It’s 2013. I just drafted Lucas Duda again.
I just can’t quit him I guess. No, I’m not a glutton for punishment. I can give you the caveats — it was pick #328 in a 14-team league with five outfielders — and we can talk about Lucas Duda specifically, but that might not be the point in the end.
Michael Morse has emerged as a strong offensive force for the Washington Nationals over the past two seasons. After being a part-time player for most of his career, Morse has posted a .369 wOBA since sliding into a full-time spot. With Adam LaRoche now back with the team, Morse will likely be traded. While Morse has been useful over the past two years, he’s done it with an unorthodox approach. Morse has refused to take walks. Morse is in a position to see his fantasy stock rise if he’s traded to a hitter’s park. But that might not matter if he continues to utilize the same approach at the plate.
This week the Mets exchanged Cy Young award winner R.A. Dickey for Blue Jays catching prospect Travis d’Arnaud (pronounced dar-no). The deal is logical for two teams moving in opposite directions. While the merit of the Blue Jays’ off-season moves are not above reproach, the Mets are in no position to compete in 2013 as evidenced by their attempt to field a team without a single outfielder. But, that’s of little consequence to us here at RotoGraphs. Here, we want to know who Travis d’Arnaud is and how this trade affects the prospect Comrade Newman called the best catcher prospect he has ever seen. Read the rest of this entry »
Unlike some of our other awards where there was very little dissension in the ranks, the Rotographs staff were pretty split as to who would be our Hare for the National League. For those who missed Eno’s introduction, the Hare is essentially the best sell-high player of the season. I’m not sure what it says about the NL that there were just too many good options; I went in thinking that it would be Bryan LaHair in a runaway, but once I started thinking about my options, he barely remained in my top three. Read the rest of this entry »
If you need to see the definition of LVP, then please check out Eno’s article where he describes the fantasy awards that we’re doling out here. You can also just accept that it stands for Least Valuable Player and stay with me right here. It’s pretty self-explanatory, right? And with the title of the piece, obviously you know who won. But rather than just declare Troy Tulowitzki as the guy who screwed fantasy owners over the most and walk away with the shortest article in RotoGraphs history, let’s look into it a little further. Read the rest of this entry »
Everything was in place for Jacoby Ellsbury to have a monster season. He was exceptional in 2011, when he hit .321/.376/.552, and finished second in the AL MVP voting. Ellsbury entered 2012 looking to turn in another solid season, and, at age 28, there was no reason to think he would experience a significant decline. While his power numbers seemed like a fluke, there were some signs that maybe Ellsbury had changed his approach, and that the power would remain.
None of those things happened. A shoulder injury put Ellsbury on the shelf early in the season. Once he returned, he hardly looked like the same player. His .271/.313/.370 slash line was pedestrian, and his power completely disappeared. Given that Ellsbury was one of the top fantasy outfielders coming into the year, his performance makes him a prime candidate for LVP.