Another exciting weekend of bullpen activity around the major leagues…

Kelvin Herrera is out as Royals closer, according to an ESPN report. Manager Ned Yost said the team will go with a closer-by-committee, utilizing Brandon Maurer, Mike Minor, or Scott Alexander to close games. Maurer picked up the save on Saturday, with Minor pitching 1.2 innings to bridge the gap from the starter to Maurer. As I mentioned in last weekend’s Report, Alexander may be the most intriguing of the bunch, but Yost seems to prefer Maurer because of his experience as a closer.

Shortly after being traded to the Cardinals, Juan Nicasio pitched 1.1 innings to earn the save against the Pirates on Friday. On Saturday, he struck out two and allowed one hit to pick up another save against the team that cut him loose earlier this month. Tyler Lyons pitched the eighth and John Brebbia pitched the seventh, so that’s the order we’re rolling with on the grid. The Cardinals bullpen situation has been quite volatile since Trevor Rosenthal got hurt, so Nicasio could easily grab the closer role and run with it if he continues to pitch well. Read the rest of this entry »

On Wednesday night, Tyler Lyons earned his second save of the season, seemingly cementing his position as the Cardinals’ primary option at closer. Yet right around the time Lyons was sewing up a 3-1 win against the Padres in San Diego, Juan Nicasio was en route to join the team, and ultimately, the mix of ninth-inning options.. The Cardinals acquired Nicasio from the Phillies in exchange for minor league second baseman Eliezer Alvarez.

As for Nicasio’s role with his second new team in the span of a week — as the Phillies claimed him off waivers from the Pirates — Mike Matheny told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch he would add the righty to the late-inning mix. Matheny added he could turn to Nicasio for the occasional save.
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• With Blake Treinen having pitched in back to back days, the A’s went to Chris Hatcher for the save opportunity and he picked up his first save in a perfect ninth on eight pitches. Santiago Casilla was also unavailable having a heavy work load of late but I still believe this helps secure Hatcher as the next in line in Oakland. Although Treinen was unavailable, he’s also put up L’s in his last three appearances. They haven’t been particularly bad outings and he’s been quite good on Oakland (2.60 ERA, 9.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9) so his job is pretty safe but keep an eye on Hatcher if Treinen has an extended slump.

• Tyler Lyons threw a scoreless ninth for his second save, striking out two and also allowing two hits. We recently put Lyons atop of the closer grid and it looks like he will stay there for the time being although this situation could still be somewhat of a committee. John Brebbia got the hold in the eighth pitching a perfect inning and he could be moving up on the grid. Brebbia won’t maintain a .193 BABIP but Oh has been very up and down as Brebbia and even Ryan Sherriff are slowly gaining Mike Matheny’s trust.

• The Angels closer situation has been a non-impressive roller coaster thus far but Blake Parker appears to have a decent hold on the job. Ex-closer Bud Norris was activated from the DL and while I don’t expect him to replace Parker, I’ve added him to the grid behind Parker and Cam Bedrosian. As we have seen with their bullpen usage this season however, Keynan Middleton and Petit could also see higher leverage innings.

• Interesting news out of New York regarding the Yankees closer situation as Aroldis Chapman could return back to his familiar role. Dellin Betances has been struggling and the Yankees likely don’t intend to pay Chapman tens of millions to not close. Joe Girardi even said “I possibly would have closed with him tonight, probably, knowing that the other guys could probably use a day off” which doesn’t mean Chapman is the closer now, but I’ve moved him to second in line and made this situation red. Watch the Yankees very closely for both a fun end of season division battle, but more importantly to see who receives the next save opportunity.

Other Bullpen Activity

• Wade Davis struck out a pair for his 29th save. There’s been a few times given Davis’ injury history where a small struggle got me nervous, along with his elevated walk rate but he’s otherwise been solid all year helping ratios and racking up saves. The walks (up to 12.6% BB% from 9.1% last year) prevents him from entering the elite company but he of course remains a solid option moving forward this year.
• 13 wins in a row for The Daimondbacks and another arrow for Fernando Rodney as he got his 36th save. Archie Bradley threw a perfect eighth for his 21st hold and is the best option back there but Rodney’s hold is firm. Things might change in 2018 but for now expect Rodney to continue to get saves, especially if they keep playing the Dodgers.
• After being used more conventionally this summer as a setup man, Chris Devenski is back to his multi-inning ways, picking up the win tonight after getting four outs. With 8 wins, 4 saves, and 91 strikeouts on the year Devenski has been more valuable than many traditional closers. If he’s getting one-to-three outs he’s pretty good but when he’s getting used for longer outings he becomes pretty special.
• Arodys Vizcaino picked up his 10th save for the Braves in the second game of their double header against the Rangers. Alex Claudio didn’t receive a save opportunity for Texas but did get the last out for Texas in both games.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

Kelvin Herrera’s latest hiatus due to forearm issues was a brief one. The Royals’ closer was lifted early last Friday against the Twins with tightness in his lower forearm, but according to the Kansas City Star, he was available again for Tuesday night’s game in Detroit. The Tigers won handily, 13-2, so Herrera wasn’t needed.

Given that Herrera has been lifted twice in the last two weeks with forearm tightness, it is hard to trust that he will be healthy and effective from here on out. In both cases where Herrera had to leave early in the middle of a save opportunity, it was Scott Alexander who was called in to finish the job. On Monday, with Herrera resting, Brandon Maurer started off the ninth inning to protect a four-run lead against the Tigers, but after allowing a Nicholas Castellanos three-run homer with one out and a pair of two-out singles, Alexander had to come to the rescue again. With a Mikie Mahtook force out, Alexander got his third career save, and each one required just a single out.
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On Friday, for the second time in 11 days, Kelvin Herrera was pulled from an existing ninth inning because of discomfort in his throwing arm. Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star reported on Saturday that the Royals expect Herrera to be unavailable for at least three days because of what Dodd calls a “mild strain in the lower part of his right forearm.”

With Hererra still unavailable on Sunday, Scott Alexander struck out two in a scoreless inning (spanning the sixth and seventh), Peter Moylan retired the lone batter he faced in the seventh, Mike Minor walked two in a scoreless eighth, and Brandon Maurer worked around a leadoff two-base error and struck out one to secure his 21st save.

The Royals were blown out 17-0 on Saturday, so Sunday offered the only glimpse into their plan of attack with Herrera on the shelf. Herrera has not been very good season, so his job could be in jeopardy to some degree even if he comes back healthy in the next few days.

Alexander successfully converted the save both times Herrera had to depart mid-inning, and his numbers (2.24 ERA/3.33 FIP/3.12 xFIP) suggest he could enjoy continued success in the ninth if given the opportunity. Entering Sunday, he boasted a ridiculous 74.8 percent ground ball rate, a solid 20.5 percent strikeout rate, and an acceptable 9.6 percent walk rate in 45 appearances spanning 56.1 innings. Minor (2.86 ERA/2.71 FIP/3.60 xFIP in 66 innings) also seems like someone capable of closing out games. Read the rest of this entry »

Dellin Betances is hard to figure out. Being able to make sense of his performance not only matters to Betances’ fantasy owners, but also to those who own Aroldis Chapman and are trying to determine whether they should drop him. On the Chapman side of the equation, there have been a nagging series of injuries — the latest being some discomfort in his left elbow — and his ever-declining whiff rate. One would think that would ease the concerns that Betances’ owners might have about his job security, but he has his own issues.

First, there is the matter of Betances’ inconsistency. Despite a 13.2 percent walk  rate, he was dominant in April and May this season, compiling an 0.52 ERA, an 0.98 WHIP and a 47.1 percent strikeout rate. In June and July, he walked 22 batters in 20 2/3 innings, which contributed to a 4.35 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. Then through Wednesday, Betances had rebounded in August, allowing one run over 11 innings with 16 strikeouts and four walks.
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The three murkiest closer situations — the Angels, Cardinals and Rockies — had been in something of a stalemate heading into Wednesday. Finally, one of those bullpens broke through with some clearer roles. When Blake Parker nailed down a four-out save for the Angels against the A’s on Wednesday night, he took a big step towards establishing himself as the closer, as he has now been called upon for three consecutive save situations. Better yet, he converted all three and extended his no-hit streak to 7 1/3 innings and his scoreless streak to 10 innings.

Then again, just two weeks ago, I thought Cam Bedrosian had sewn up the job after he recorded three saves in a week, and then Mike Scioscia turned to Keynan Middleton and Bud Norris for the team’s next two save chances. Parker is having a brilliant season and will be a fine closer if he is, in fact, being given the chance to hold down the job full-time. I would still like to see him get the next save chance before upgrading the Angels from red to yellow in the closer grid.
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Another messy outing for Greg Holland on Saturday. With a three-run lead in the ninth, he allowed two singles and a home run and was pulled with one out and the Rockies clinging to a one-run lead. Jake McGee was brought in to put out the fire, and he induced a game-ending double play.

After the game, when asked if he would continue to use Holland in save situations, Bud Black said, “Possibly. But maybe not. His next outing might be a closing situation. I can’t answer that right now. We haven’t definitively made that decision.”

On Sunday, again with a three-run lead, Black elected to use McGee to start the ninth, and he delivered a one-two-three inning. This, of course, looks like trouble for Holland and his fantasy owners.

In eight appearances dating back to August 6, Holland has faced 39 batters over 6.1 innings and has allowed 14 earned runs on four homers, 13 hits, and six walks while amassing just four strikeouts. His ERA has jumped from 1.56 to 4.05 over that span, which is a good reminder about the uselessness of past ERA as a predictor of future ERA, especially for relievers who pitch over tiny samples.

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It turns out that closers, agents and fantasy owners aren’t the only ones who care about saves. In something of a surprise move, Dusty Baker summoned Sean Doolittle for the eighth inning of the Nationals’ series finale against the Astros on Thursday night. With switch-hitting Carlos Beltran and lefties Brian McCann and Derek Fisher due up, there was a certain logic to Doolittle being brought in, but that was apparently not Baker’s only consideration. Both MASN’s Mark Zuckerman and the Washington Post’s Jorge Castillo tweeted that the Nationals’ manager wanted to give Brandon Kintzler a chance to reach 30 saves. He has been stuck on 28 since getting traded from the Twins to the Nationals on July 31.

So, yes, it was Kintzler who pitched the ninth with a 3-1 lead, but that was quickly erased by a Josh Reddick RBI single and a Yuli Gurriel RBI double. Kintzler is still two saves away from 30, so we should not be surprised to see him get at least a couple more chances to pitch in save situations. While Doolittle has not been as effective against right-handed hitters as he has been against lefties, his .225 wOBA allowed against righties entering Thursday’s game hardly seems like reason enough to hold him back from facing the top of the Astros’ batting order.
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Less than three weeks ago, Greg Holland owned the ninth inning. On Aug. 4, he notched his 34th save of the season after tossing a perfect frame against the Phillies. He had strung together 13 appearances that produced a 1.42 ERA with plenty of whiffs, particularly on pitches out of the strike zone.

Little has gone right since then, and on Wednesday, Holland blew his third save since that outing against the Phillies. He has allowed 12 runs and gone 0-4 in his last six appearances, covering five innings. The walk-off homer he allowed to Eric Hosmer in Wednesday’s blown save against the Royals was the third he had given up over this brief stretch, and the leadoff walk he issued to Alex Gordon was his sixth over this span. Holland has also mustered just a 9.2 percent swinging strike rate over these appearances.
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