Bullpen Report: August 31, 2017

Dellin Betances is hard to figure out. Being able to make sense of his performance not only matters to Betances’ fantasy owners, but also to those who own Aroldis Chapman and are trying to determine whether they should drop him. On the Chapman side of the equation, there have been a nagging series of injuries — the latest being some discomfort in his left elbow — and his ever-declining whiff rate. One would think that would ease the concerns that Betances’ owners might have about his job security, but he has his own issues.

First, there is the matter of Betances’ inconsistency. Despite a 13.2 percent walk  rate, he was dominant in April and May this season, compiling an 0.52 ERA, an 0.98 WHIP and a 47.1 percent strikeout rate. In June and July, he walked 22 batters in 20 2/3 innings, which contributed to a 4.35 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. Then through Wednesday, Betances had rebounded in August, allowing one run over 11 innings with 16 strikeouts and four walks.

His performance on the final night of August had a bit of everything, and fortunately for him, he and the Yankees entered the top of the ninth inning with a 6-1 lead over the Red Sox. Betances put the first three batters on, first walking Chris Young and then hitting Christian Vazquez and Brock Holt with pitches. It took the Yankees’ closer 10 pitches to load the bases, and only once did a hitter take the bat off his shoulder. Betances escaped having allowed only one run, and that one was forced in by yet another walk.

Though Betances did not have his best control in this start, he did locate 12 of his 29 pitches in the zone for a 41.3 percent rate that did not radically depart from the major league norm of 44.9 percent. That latter mark was also Betances’ Zone% prior to Thursday’s game. So for all of his issues with walks, Betances has been far from wild. He has just been averse to inducing swings, whether at pitches in the zone or out of the zone.

This is the other thing that makes Betances difficult to project. His swing rate has been so low that it makes him practically unique. His 35.3 percent rate has been the lowest for any qualified reliever since 2002. He is only the fourth reliever to post a rate below 37.0 percent during this period, with Carlos Marmol (35.3 percent in 2012), Adam Ottavino (35.4 percent this season) and J.P. Howell (36.8 percent in 2012) being the others. While Howell was wild (40.9 percent Zone%), Marmol and Ottavino had near-normal Zone% rates.

What separates Betances from nearly every other reliever over the last 16 seasons with an ultra-low swing rate is the extreme degree to which he misses bats when opponents have swung. Heading into Thursday’s game, Betances had a contact rate of 61.7 percent. Over this span, there have been 24 cases of a reliever finishing a season with a swing rate of 39.0 percent or lower. Of this group, Carlos Marmol had the only other season with a contact rate below 72.0 percent. His 2010 contact rate of 61.4 percent was even a little better than Betances’. Marmol had a strong season, finishing with a 2.55 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 41.6 percent strikeout rate (the major league average was 18.5 percent) and 38 saves. Similarly, Betances has a 2.34 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and a 39.2 percent strikeout rate.

Pitching like the 2010 version of Marmol should be good enough for Betances to keep the closer’s role through the end of the season, but like his Cubs counterpart, he is operating on a slim margin of error. If hitters start to make more frequent or harder contact, it could create a new round of closer drama in the Bronx.

Seung Hwan Oh is back in the save column, but that doesn’t mean he is back to being the Cardinals’ closer. The only reason Oh got to pitch in the 5-2 victory over the Giants on Thursday night was because Mike Matheny had already used Matt Bowman, Tyler Lyons, John Brebbia and Zach Duke in his quest to preserve a win for Michael Wacha. It was Brebbia who started off the ninth inning with a four-run lead, but he got into trouble right away by giving up a Buster Posey double and a Brandon Crawford ground-rule double that would have likely been a home run if not for fan interference. This was the Cardinals’ first save opportunity in 13 days, but Matheny had recently been using Lyons and Brebbia in the late innings when they had a lead. I was prepared to remove Oh from the closer’s spot in the grid below, but given Brebbia’s struggles on Thursday and Oh’s successful save conversion, I will leave him in his accustomed spot for the time being.

Bruce Bochy has stated his intention to eventually return Mark Melancon to the closer’s role, but he did not do anything to expedite the move on Thursday night. Melancon was brought in for the eighth inning against the Cardinals, and he exited after giving up a pair of runs on two singles, two walks and a hit batter. Uncharacteristically, he threw just 11 of his 25 pitches for strikes. Sam Dyson owners may be able to rest a little easier after this outing.

Juan Minaya recorded his first career blown save on Thursday, yielding a game-tying single to Eddie Rosario and then allowing the Twins to walk off on a Max Kepler hit-by-pitch. Since recording his first save on Aug. 18 against the Rangers, the White Sox’s latest closer had been reliable through five appearances, going 3 for 3 in saves with one run allowed over five innings. However, as a flyball pitcher with a penchant for walks, Minaya figured to have days like this one. He now has a 4.67 ERA with a 32.5 percent ground ball rate and a 12.3 percent walk rate.

The Phillies claimed Juan Nicasio on waivers Thursday, but Pete Mackanin said that Hector Neris will continue to be the team’s closer. Neris had been on a modest roll prior to Thursday night’s series opener against the Marlins, but he narrowly escaped a jam, nearly forcing in the tying run by almost hitting J.T. Realmuto with a splitter in a bases-loaded situation. He recovered, striking Realmuto out on a pitch at the knees and notching his 17th save of the season.

Closer Grid:

Closer First Second DL/Minors
ARI Fernando Rodney Archie Bradley David Hernandez
ATL Arodys Vizcaino Jim Johnson Jose Ramirez
BAL Zach Britton Brad Brach Mychal Givens
BOS Craig Kimbrel Addison Reed Matt Barnes Carson Smith
CHC Wade Davis Pedro Strop Carl Edwards Jr.
CWS Juan Minaya Gregory Infante Jake Petricka Nate Jones
CIN Raisel Iglesias Michael Lorenzen Drew Storen
CLE Cody Allen Joe Smith Bryan Shaw Andrew Miller
COL Greg Holland Jake McGee Pat Neshek
DET Shane Greene Alex Wilson Joe Jimenez
HOU Ken Giles Chris Devenski Luke Gregerson
KC Kelvin Herrera Brandon Maurer Ryan Buchter Joakim Soria
LAA Blake Parker Cam Bedrosian Yusmeiro Petit Bud Norris
LAD Kenley Jansen Brandon Morrow Pedro Baez
MIA Brad Ziegler Kyle Barraclough Jarlin Garcia
MIL Corey Knebel Anthony Swarzak Josh Hader
MIN Matt Belisle Trevor Hildenberger Glen Perkins
NYM A.J. Ramos Jeurys Familia Paul Sewald
NYY Dellin Betances David Robertson Aroldis Chapman
OAK Blake Treinen Chris Hatcher Liam Hendriks
PHI Hector Neris Juan Nicasio Luis Garcia
PIT Felipe Rivero Daniel Hudson A.J. Schugel Joaquin Benoit
STL Seung Hwan Oh Tyler Lyons John Brebbia Trevor Rosenthal
SD Brad Hand Kirby Yates Phil Maton
SF Sam Dyson Hunter Strickland Mark Melancon
SEA Edwin Diaz Nick Vincent Marc Rzepczynski Tony Zych
TB Alex Colome Tommy Hunter Steve Cishek
TEX Alex Claudio Jose Leclerc Ricardo Rodriguez Keone Kela
TOR Roberto Osuna Ryan Tepera Dominic Leone
WSH Sean Doolittle Brandon Kintzler Matt Albers Ryan Madson

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]





Al Melchior has been writing about Fantasy baseball and sim games since 2000, and his work has appeared at CBSSports.com, BaseballHQ, Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster and FanRagSports. He has also participated in Tout Wars' mixed auction league since 2013. You can follow Al on Twitter @almelchiorbb and find more of his work at almelchior.com.

Comments are closed.