Catchers Whose Ownership Rates Should Rise
Unless you play in a one-catcher league (bo-ring, to me, but I totally get why some people do it) or subscribe to a strategy that purports the selection of two top-rated catchers, you’re faced with the prospect of ownership of some serious crap at the position in at least one of your two C spots. We can’t all draft Devin Mesoraco. (Those who did may want to see what he’d fetch in a trade.) Some of us ended up with Alex Avila’s .175/.283/.250 and 58.3 contact rate through 47 plate appearances. (The Detroit Tigers tell us that he’s working through that awful start. Fingers crossed. At least he’s practically assured playing time.)
Despite the turnover that we often see in rotisserie or head-to-head leagues, there isn’t as much of it among backstops, for the same reasons that some of us prefer not to put much emphasis on the position in our auctions or drafts. We don’t expect one to make a significant difference more than another once we get that deep. Health is a greater concern for backstops than it is for other position players. They don’t play as often as other regulars because of the rigors of the position. Etc., etc., etc.
As it is, then, playing time (or the prospect of it) is more critical to the “value” of a catcher in fantasy leagues. Of course, if it’s putrid production that comes with the playing time, like anyone reasonably expected of Kurt Suzuki, then some of us don’t want it. But the negative impact of a dull catcher is diminished for the same reasons that owners tend to pay little for catchers.
The incentives to recycle low-end catchers aren’t great. I’m a Carlos Ruiz owner in two leagues, and I’m quite happy about it, although that’s because I expect his production to be at least adequate by season’s end. But because of those reduced incentives, there’s the possibility that some of us glaze the few opportunities that present themselves at the position.
Yasmani Grandal, San Diego Padres
This is the one that really makes no sense to me. He’s owned in only one-fifth of CBS leagues, and hardly at all in Yahoo! or ESPN leagues. I understand if he wasn’t on your draft radar. But at this point, the information says that your radar was probably missing something, or you didn’t check out RotoGraphs’ consensus rankings with projection system averages.
The Friars have already made their position clear by divvying up the playing time between Grandal and Nick Hundley at a 2:1 rate in favor of the switch-hitting backstop who’s coming off August reconstructive knee surgery. In the early going, Grandal has acquitted himself with a .297/.395/.405 slash line.
Fantasy owners can’t necessarily expect top-level production from Grandal, 25, at least in terms of power. The strength around his knee can’t be at full capacity yet and is likely compromising something in his lower half. And PETCO Park kind of sucks. But the skills that made him so intriguing to the Padres when they traded for him before the 2012 campaign and that allowed him to hit .297/.394/.469 in 226 plate appearances that year are still intact. The threat of a PED suspension last season is one of a host of factors that could help to explain his tailspin in 2013. Whatever they are, they’re likely in the past.
A catcher who receives the majority of the PT and is a probable asset in the batting average category is plenty useful in fantasy leagues. GM Josh Byrnes told the team’s official site earlier this month that Grandal could make a quick recovery because there wasn’t collateral damage, so to speak, in other areas of his right knee. As long as Grandal continues to move toward 100 percent health, his upside will increase along with it.
Josmil Pinto, Minnesota Twins
I was a bit stunned that his ownership figures weren’t greater when I searched for them. He’s owned in only about a quarter of CBS leagues, where the competition tends to be fiercer, or at least deeper. The justification to roster Pinto exists in any two-catcher league of 10 teams or more, however. Even the CBS figure should pick up, I think.
You can’t be shocked that Pinto is here. He was a popular sleeper at the position even after the Twinkies signed Suzuki. Once it became clear that they were serious, though, the bandwagon lost some riders. But Pinto has garnered 56 plate appearances and has already hit four home runs. The .233 average is of course immaterial, especially because of his willingness to accept a free pass in the early going. We know of his talent as a hitter; it’s how the Twins justified his spot on the opening-day roster.
You may fairly view this opportunity for PT as a short-lived one. Pinto’s at-bats became regular after Oswaldo Arcia and Josh Willingham both went on the DL (and after they added more fiber to their diet). Chris Hermann’s addition to the bench is what allowed Ron Gardenhire the flexibility (in his mind) to use Pinto at DH every day.
But there are several ways in which Pinto may remain more than relevant. Arcia is dealing with right wrist pain; Willingham, a small fracture in his left wrist. Willingham, especially, is no stranger to injuries, and the maladies for either player could linger. There’s also the possibility that Chris Colabello and Jason Kubel aren’t All-Stars, though I’m a quasi-believer in the former.
If Aaron Hicks’ struggles extend through May, then they’ll have to consider a Plan B in center. Unless that Plan B is the recently claimed Sam Fuld, Darin Mastroianni clears waivers or they want to depend on some other scrub from the farm, it’s not clear what that is, but it’ll require some roster shuffling: The Twins have excess corner outfielders and DHs, and they’ll have to something with one or two of them. It’s hard to believe that some team may really miss Alex Presley.
Pinto’s ability as a hitter is probably going to keep him relevant, even if he receives only 10 plate appearances a week on occasion. I picked him up in Tout Wars (15-team mixed league) before the season began and released because of some roster crunching, but I kind of regretted it, and now he’s owned. This is a really murky situation, but I think it’s justifiable to keep him active in a league like that, and even in some shallower ones, in the long term.
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Nicholas Minnix oversaw baseball content for six years at KFFL, where he held the loose title of Managing Editor for seven and a half before he joined FanGraphs. He played in both Tout Wars and LABR from 2010 through 2014. Follow him on Twitter @NicholasMinnix.
I have Pinto in my everyday lineup. Granted, my other options are Miguel Montero or the waiver wire, but he has pretty much been serving as the DH for MIN at this point and is getting everyday PAs. Top 50 in ESPN hard-hit average rankings. Also in a spot in the lineup where he comes up a lot with guys on base.
I have Rosario and Mesoraco, using both when both start or just 1 if 1 has an off day. Hoping I can pad my counting stats by filling my Catcher spot more than other managers.
Wow, *another* fangraphs writer crapping on 1-catcher leagues. Seriously, I don’t get it. Is the joy of figuring out how to squeeze production and at-bats out of Ryan Lavarnway and Jose Lobaton really that compelling?
I wouldn’t say “crap.” I did say I understand why people play in them. Leagues (at least mixed) with far too many good replacements is the main reason I don’t care for them. AL- or NL-only leagues put a large strain on the resource, so your preference for one C there is more than comprehensible.
I’m playing in a 12-team mixed league with 27 roster spots. Even starting catchers usually get around 125-130 starts, and they might slump or get injured, so it could be worth having a backup or someone with C-eligibility to plug in. So in a 12-team mixer, there are probably 18-20 catchers taken, just to allow folks to manage that single roster spot. Realistically, that’s about as many decent hitting catchers with significant playing time as there are in the majors. If you have 2 catcher spots to fill, you’re scraping the bottom of the barrel both in terms of offensive output and playing time. Why would you want to go through the trouble of sifting through the garbage in order to get close to cobbling together 324 catcher starts (162 x 2)? Catcher isn’t that great an offensive position anyway. Would you want to have two SS spots? No.
*manage that single lineup spot
Well, we do have an MI spots, typically. If I could make it a C/MI spot, maybe I would! Probably not, though. I understand your reasoning, and I’m sure it works for your league. That’s important.
Thanks for the response. Sorry to come across so strongly, but seeing fantasy experts like yourself (and Brad Johnson) have such a strong preference for something that makes little sense to me felt kind of baffling. I guess I was wondering what exactly I was missing, here. 🙂
No worries. I have a tendency to react strongly to things, myself, so I don’t judge. As long as you find what works and its people are happy or can live with it, it’s a good fantasy league, usually.
How come there is so much support for 2 C’s and so little for LF, CF, RF. I find dividing up my outfield is a more satisfing challenge then chasing lower tiered catchers.
That’s an excellent question. I’ve never played in such a format, although I’ve seen them. I’ll have to give one a try!
I dont respect you unless you play in a 2 catcher NL EAST only league
16-team league at that
How valuable is Pinto in a 1-catcher keeper league? Can he be a top 12 catcher in 2015?
I can’t imagine so. Yes, he could be a top-12 catcher next year, but you could just draft him then — or pick him up toward the end of this year if you really wanted. A mixed one-catcher keeper league doesn’t offer much incentive to retain the catcher, though, relative to the number of players you can keep and any other restrictions on keepers.
should i drop yan gomes for pinto in 12 teams mixed league?
No sir, Gomes’ situation is much more predictable, and he’s a solid own in his own right.
Grandal owner here. The Padres are actually doing a bizarre 3 catcher thing…Rene Rivera I believe has actually made more starts than either Grandal or Hundley. I’m hoping that as Grandal’s knee proves healthy they either play him more or give him some at bats at first base instead of Alonso. The good news is that Bud Black has moved him up from initially 8th in the order to more of the middle of the order when he does play.
I knew I was forgetting something, thanks. Grandal has played about twice as much as Rivera has, also, so I guess the ratio is more accurately 2:1:1. The Friars LOVE Rivera’s ability to call a game and frame pitches. It’s a situation where they must eventually trade at least one of Hundley and Grandal (I assume their preference is Grandal, for a plethora of reasons), particularly because Austin Hedges is in the pipeline. This isn’t a bad thing for Grandal, another reason SD has incentive to continue to let him play. And it’d be nice to see him end up on a better team, in a better park.
Once Carlos Quentin comes off the DL, they won’t be able to keep 3 catchers.
The 3 catcher thing is already a problem as Alonso has had to play some innings at 3rd because they don’t have another backup infielder. Either Hundley or Rivera will be traded/sent down and Grandal will get more playing time after that. They just don’t want Grandal to stress his knee early in April. Grandal said that Black told him that he wants Grandal playing everyday in September, not in April… so basically they’re saving him.
Rivera is Cashner’s catcher and has caught Ross the last 2 starts. Playing time for Grandal is in question at this point. Too bad, as I still wonder about his offensive potential.
Is Pinto better than Conger or Jaso? Any chance you get your own chat around here?
Definitely better than Conger (PT reason, at least). Almost certainly better than Jaso, even in OBP leagues. Just more talent. Opportunity already in play.
Also, I just started doing the Sunday podcast with Collette. If you haven’t checked that out, give it a run.
Should I Drop Kurt Suzuki for Grandal?
Or should I drop Suzuki for Pinto? help meeeeeeeeeeee
Grandal’s situation is more attractive IMO because of the PT situation. There’s more upside with Pinto, but his PT will be uncertain.
I would, certainly. That’s the kind of scenario at which this article is aimed. The places where someone can upgrade may be somewhat few and far between, but they’re out there. Suzuki may be in the midst of a renaissance, but his performance and indicators from the past few years suggest that’s highly unlikely.
Thanks! Ya I’m a bit of a noob at this fantasy thing, appreciate the help.
Pinto or Grandal over Sal Perez? Perez has the playing time but he’s never been a walker and is really struggling. OBP league btw.
Ahhh, OBP league, that’s a touch more difficult. I still tend to lean toward the player who provides me with the most counting stuff potential first, and Perez is that guy here (especially when combined with his projected PT).
Yeah, my thoughts too but it’s getting harder each to justify playing him during this slump!
I was in a situation where I had a lot of 3B and Pinto was available in my 20 team keeper league. I had a hard time justifying it at first, but with Santana’s crazy eligibility and struggling players across the board, I finally pulled the trigger and dropped Headley for Pinto. I’m really hoping that they can keep finding him playing time at the MLB level as it gives my roster crazy flexibility with being able to shuffle Santana to so many positions.
It’s tough to imagine a league where Pinto is definitely a better own than Headley. But you have to do what your assessments tell you. Could you have traded him, in a league that deep? Hope it works out, good luck!
Is Ramos worth seeing spot in one leagues?
Stupid auto correct ramos worth a spot in obp leagues? He just got cut.
It depends on how many each team starts, # of teams, etc. Wilson? I’d guess that his former owner cut him because Ramos doesn’t take a walk too often and the wrist injury may cut down his power for a while after his return, so he’s lost a lot of the appeal that made him an asset. He’s worth a spot in your standard 12-team, two-C mixed league, though. Some recover more quickly than others from any type of injury, hamate bone removal included, and he’s been a quick healer from other ailments, so it’s possible that he’s not gravely affected.
Man that SOB Ramos hit two HR and a double in extended spring on Friday.
The problem with Grandal is that he sorta sucks. He doesn’t have power, he probably won’t steal bases and his AVG is not going to stay that high with a .385 BABIP. He doesn’t offer much…I guess if you play a 2 catcher league, but in that case he is still near the bottom of the barrel.
We can agree to disagree, then, no big deal. Grandal’s average on balls in play is high because of his high K%. He hits the ball hard and has hit for average at each of his minor league stops. He was a well-regarded prospect, after all. He has 15- to 20-homer power in a full season (backed up by his limited MLB time). His contact rate will rise as he approaches full health, offsetting a decline in BABIP.
Padres discussing trades for Hundley
http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/apr/22/padres-nick-hundley-catcher-trade-discussions/
I have McCann and C. Santana, but With Santana having 1st, 3rd, and CI availability,would it be a good idea to drop CJ wilson (by far and away my worst starter) and pick up Pinto?
Hard to say w/o knowing how truly deep your and your league’s pitching go, the value of carrying the new catcher or the current SP. At face value, I’d say no, but perhaps you can trade Wilson? If SPs are that plentiful, to replace him on the wire should be easy, too?
Nice article, thanks.
I’m doing a simple exercise in my single catcher 12 team 5×5 – streaming catchers & logging the results of each game.
Due to the sheer number of at bats, my counting stats are skyrocketing but batting average plummeting.
Any advice for streaming catchers? Ride the hot hand or stick with a promising Grandal or Pinto type?
That’s tough. I’ve never attempted it. Kudos for having the dedication to log the results, too. I’d like to think that the average will even out in the long run, especially because you have X number of other hitters in your lineup. But results in your C spot are going to be subject to a high degree of variance and depend on the quality of the hitter you’re running out there, too, of course. Counting stats are always good, in my book. If you’re not having to plug in the likes of Avila and Iannetta on many days, then why not? Let us know how it goes!
Good article, thanks.
I have Russell Martin in a 14 team, 1 catcher, OBP + TB league. Would you recommend picking up Grandal or Pinto or Mesoraco (scared by his .607 BABIP) or Salty or sticking with Martin?
Thanks!
Another tough decision. Mesoraco would be the only temptation there, for me, because of the potential for this to be a monstrous breakout. But I’m still not ready to trust that he’ll remain productive for much of the season. Definite holes. Still, his potential is greater than Martin’s (plus ballpark) even if the downside is worse (it could be only as bad). I’d not blame you for making this move, but be ready with a backup plan. Martin is predictable, at least.
Martin brings the power that I can’t expect from Grandal for a little while. I’ll trade that for the hit in OBP I’m bound to take when Martin’s average finally dips, because at least he draws walks. But your needs dictate this, somewhat. If OBP is where you’re struggling, Grandal might be your long-term preference. But I wouldn’t be ready to make this change just yet.
Thanks for the reply, really appreciate it. I think I’ll stick with Martin, but also see if I can squeeze Mesoraco onto my roster for now and ride him while he’s hot or until I need the roster spot back.
Keep up the good work.
Thanks again.
I dropped Martin for Mesoraco in my 12 team OBP league last week. I would go ahead any do it, since those 4 aren’t that far apart. If Mesoraco is still available, then I can’t imagine that Martin would be snatched up.
I’m in a deep 20 team dynasty 1 catcher league that uses OPS. I start McCann at catcher & Pinto gets a fair amount of time at my util spot due to injuries and/or slumps. Plus his low avg is offset by awesome ops. Would you have enough faith in Pinto to trade away McCann? Or should I hang onto both as an insurance plan? The fa crop is the likes of Hanigan, Ianetta, etc.
I’d be much more inclined to hold both McCann and Pinto, at least until Pinto is named the starter moving forward. That could happen sometime this season, or not until next year, but you’d be in great shape either way and then in great position to benefit as much as possible from a trade of McCann. If you did it now and Pinto lost some PT, certainly possible and even likely in the short term, the combo of him and whatever hitter you’d have to plug into your utility spot would probably be worse than your current arrangement. Unless your alternatives for the UT spot are pretty good.
Nick, I know the focus around here tends to be Roto leagues and that in saying I play in a points league I might as well say I play in a Thursday morning bingo league but its a very intense bingo league and I’m old enough to be comfortable with my faults at this point, so here it goes. Josmil Pinto has been a top 10 catcher so far in points leagues that credit BB’s or OBP. Essentially putting up the same value as Jonathan Lucroy. Pinto has a low BAPIP, and reasonable contact and HR/FB gains but is walking at an insane 22% rate. Jonathan Lucroy has seemed OK up to this point but his .350ish BAPIP coupled with a huge jump in GB rate and corresponding decrease in HR/FB rate seem to indicate he could be in trouble once his BABIP corects. Theres a lot of questions I could ask you about interpreting stats this early in the season but in the interest of time my main question is Pinto or Lucroy based on what we’ve seen so far, and throwing in the big assumption that Pinto gets enough PA’s to be worthy in a points league.
I appreciate how deeply you analyzed your situation before you asked your question. So, having read (not said) that, I’d have to stick with Lucroy. You cited caveats. I’d guess that you probably wouldn’t even be asking if a couple of Lucroy’s, say, doubles were home runs because his BABIP would be lower and thus its expected decline not so impending. Isn’t it fun to argue with yourself?
What’s with the throwaway line about an apparent no-brainer flip of Mesoraco? Let’s forget his position for a moment to realize exactly what he went through just to get whatever ABs he got in order to press too hard through. Nobody succeeds under those circumstances. It hasn’t simply been no secret he’s capable of doing very very cruel things to a baseball, that’s something that’s been a foregone conclusion as a matter of time issue. I don’t care if he hit the DL again, if anything his owners lucked out since they can no longer trade high on him. Of course, if people are paying you for a .400/.530/.700 Catcher then yeah, suddenly no-brainer works. A sane league will value him accordingly.
But then, I always miss things. What am I missing here. Besides the question mark.
I don’t equate “may” and “no-brainer.”
I have Wieters and Rosario, and was just able to grab Ramos to throw in my DL slot for when he comes back. I’m looking to trade Rosario or Wieters.
Basically, my question is: Should we sell high on Wieters strong start, or has he finally put it all together? His BABIP is a tad high, but overall his numbers don’t look completely out of whack (LD% has jumped, and HR/FB rate is up a tad from last yeaer, but in line with 2012, FB% stable, GB% down, 38th in league in hard-hit average etc). He has the name value and the strong start, so suspect I could get more value for him in a trade, but he has the longer track record and is the right age for a catcher to be moving in his ‘prime’ career years, and in a keeper league that could be really valuable.
Rosario of course has a good home park, and his somewhat high HR/FB rate (15%) is offset by a FB% that is 10ppt lower than his career average. BABIP a tad low, and he’s cut down on his K%.
Good timing: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/catcher-tiers-may-2014/
IMO, Wieters is putting it together. I’d be worried about Ramos’ production even when he returns, because of the type of injury he sustained. I’d be a lot more confident in the Wieters-Rosario pairing than either of those two with Ramos. If you can “sell high” these days, I suppose, why not, but I wouldn’t expect to profit from what has happened in April alone.
Catchers drive me nuts….Grandal vs Jason Castro. What say ye?
I hear you. Castro seems like the safer bet considering his larger body of work, and I’m sure he’ll rebound a bit, despite that disturbing contact rate (two years in a row). Having said that, I’ve always kind of preferred the talent of someone like Grandal, whom I think should get stronger as the season progresses.
Oh my gosh how these 2 have been buried, Pinto now in minors and Grandal in an awful slump since April and deep behind Rivera now, with Hundley gone. I agreed completely these guys were sleepers but the catcher hitter curve has bitten them, and league adjusted to them, something.
I think they are both still going to be good but may take time.