Catchers ADP Market Report: 3/14/22

As we hit peak draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising

Daulton Varsho (+7.07)- Varsho continues to rise as fantasy players become intrigued with his potential to get full time playing time while retaining catcher eligibility. There have been a few rumors that the Diamondbacks could add more offense, but as of yet, they have not and if they do, I don’t think it would be at the expense of Varsho’s playing time. The price is high, however and I prefer Grandal over him and likely Contreras too. 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

Top 200 Players Rising

Mitch Garver (+13.78)- Garver’s ADP continues to rise and that was before he was traded to Texas. I would expect the price to continue to rise after the deal. In spite of only playing in 68 games due to a couple of IL stints that caused him to miss the majority of two months. He still hit 13 home runs and had a palatable .256 batting average. His Statcast numbers were very impressive with a 17% barrel percentage and a max exit velocity in the 82 percentile. I love the talent, but I don’t think I want to pay the price for a player that struggles so much to stay on the field.  

Top 200 Players Falling

None

Top 300 Players Rising

Elias Diaz (+13)- Diaz continues to rise in the ADP. After some criticism on my last catcher piece in this series, I did a deeper dive and came away pretty impressed. Diaz crushed in the second half, hitting .274/.330.536 with 11 home runs. Now, that may be a bit unsustainable as he only had 12 barrels, but he also made a ton of zone contact and was very aggressive in the zone. I think what we saw was sustainable and Diaz went from a guy I was fading to someone I am targeting. 

Omar Narvaez (+10.23)- I think Narvaez is rising because of the safety of his profile compared to more volatile options going around him. Clearly the power we saw in 2019 was rabbit ball fueled, but 2020 was an outlier as well. I think he is a pretty good bet to repeat last season’s production with 10-15 homers and a good average for a catcher. 

Top 300 Players Falling

Adley Rutschman (-8.76)- I am a bit surprised that Rutschman is falling, but I assume it is because of the likelihood he does not make the Opening Day roster. However, I think there is a very good chance he is up early and he could make a major impact if he is. Considering the weakness of the catcher pool, I think he is a worthy gamble at the price. 

Travis d’Arnaud (-8.33)- D’Arnaud is continuing to fall in ADP. After having two healthy seasons in 2019 and 2020, he missed nearly two months of the season in 2021 with a torn thumb ligament. Talent has never really been a question for the former top prospect, but he has struggled most of his career with injury and unfortunately with Marcell Ozuna likely destined to occupy the designated hitter role in Atlanta, d’Arnaud likely doesn’t figure to add a ton more plate appearances there. I don’t think he is worth being drafted at yet. 

Others of Note

Yadier Molina (-17.13)- I am surprised to see Molina dropping. He is at worst a pretty great accumulator at a position where that is hard to find and in what is likely his last season, there is no reason the Cardinals won’t let him play as much as possible. I think he is a steal. 

Jorge Alfaro (+24.79)- Why is Alfaro rising? I don’t really know. While I like him as a player, until I see a clearer path to playing time, I worry he isn’t much more than a low end C2 or C3 gamble.