Catcher ADP Market Report: 12/9/2023

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

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Top 100 Players Falling

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Top 200 Players Rising

Yainer Diaz (+27.46) –  Diaz has been rising tremendously after the Astros announced that he would be the main catcher in 2024 and that they would only bring in a backup. Diaz was fantastic in a part time role, hitting 23 home runs with a .282/.308/.538 triple slash in just 377 plate appearances. If he can get to 500 plate appearances, he could be a 30 home run bat with a great average for a catcher. 

Cal Raleigh (+12.87) – Raleigh is rising after a great season where he led all catchers with 30 home runs this season. While the power is legit and he should play regularly, there is a bunch of risk to his profile. He had a paltry 80.6% zone contact and strikeout rate that was in line with poor contact skills. I think you can book him for 25+ homers but it comes at a cost to your average. 

Gabriel Moreno (+11.8) – I am honestly surprised that Moreno hasn’t raised more after his huge playoff performance, but there is time for that. Moreno has great contact skills especially for a catcher, but I think if people watched the four playoff home runs they might be expecting a power breakout, they are likely in for a disappointing season. Moreno doesn’t hit the ball in the air very often and he doesn’t strike the ball particularly hard. He does throw in some decent stolen base numbers for a catcher, but he is likely a high floor/low ceiling catcher that will get overrated. 

Luis Campusano (+26.5) – Campusano is rising after a hot stretch in his small sample, hitting .319/.356/.491 with seven home runs in 174 plate appearances. Campusano was a top prospect for a long time and finally delivered on that promise. He did it with great underlying numbers like a 91% zone contact and a 12% strikeout rate. He didn’t hit the ball extremely hard and he doesn’t play great defense, so there is some risk, but he is the last of his tier at the position and one of my favorite targets. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

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Top 300 Players Rising

Mitch Garver (+12.16) – Garver is rising after a season in which he had his best season since 2019, hitting .270/.370/.500 with 19 home runs in 344 plate appearances. The problem with Garver is two-fold. First is we don’t know what team he will be playing on and he is not a great catcher which puts his playing time at risk. More importantly, Garver struggles to stay healthy. This was his first season since 2019 where he reached more than 250 plate appearances. The price is still decent, but there is a ton of risk and I probably won’t be drafting him until I see where he lands. 

Ryan Jeffers (+28.27) – Jeffer is coming off of a really nice season in a small sample in which he hit 14 home runs and three stolen bases with a .278/.369/.490 in 335 plate appearances. The difficult part is there isn’t a ton in the underlying numbers that support another step forward. He had a below average contact profile and his catching metrics were not great. He did have impressive exit velocities and barrel rates, but if he doesn’t improve the contact and defense, I think the playing time will suffer. 

Danny Jansen (+15.02) – Jansen has all the tools to be a C1 and a breakout in 2024. He makes a lot of contact, there is power in the bat and is good behind the plate. The problem with Jansen has been health and playing time. He is going so late that even with the raised price, he is still worth the gamble, but at some point it becomes hard to believe that he will put it all together. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Tyler Stephenson (-10.73) – Stephenson has been falling after three straight seasons in which he has failed to live up to his hype as a former top prospect. He makes average contact in the zone and there is pop in the bat, but the roster depth in Cincinnati means he won’t get many extra plate appearances anymore and while there is raw power, he has never been able to unlock it. I just can’t buy that this is the year he does. He is also a bad catcher behind the plate. This is not a recipe for success. 

 

Others of Note

Jake Rogers (+40.42) – Rogers was a pleasant surprise in 2023, hitting .221/.286/.444 with 21 home runs and a stolen base in 365 plate appearances. While the season was great for him, the underlying numbers are pretty gross. He had a 32% strikeout rate and  it was backed up by a 14% swinging strike rate and an atrocious 79% in zone contact rate. Unlike other guys on this list, he has pretty good catching metrics, so he should play regularly, but it will likely come at a cost to your average and it seems unlikely that he repeats the power numbers that he did in 2023. 

Rene Pinto (+117.94) – This is a pretty crazy jump in price and I get it because Pinto looks like he is the starter in Tampa at least for now. His numbers were good in his 105 plate appearances, but he also was pretty lucky considering his poor in zone contact, low walk rate and a 32% strikeout rate. I think he turns back into the Pinto bean he once was and disappoints.