Casey at the Blake

Casey Blake will decline…eventually.

Casey Blake has been remarkably consistent, and has had a nice career for someone who didn’t establish himself in the majors until age 29. Blake hit .274/.345/.463 last year between the Dodgers and Indians, slightly better than his career line of .264/.334/.447. Blake also managed 21 homers and 81 RBI. Blake’s season was right in line with his seasons over the past couple of years, and he virtually no signs of declining whatsoever.

However, next season Blake will be 36, and at some point he will certainly begin to decline. If he manages to have another normal Casey Blake season next year (.260-270 average, 20-25 homers, 70-80 RBI), he will have a fair amount of value in fantasy leagues. However, even a slight decline – especially in power – will put a huge dent in his fantasy value. While he has defied expectations at nearly every stage of his career thus far, age eventually catches up with everyone.

Furthermore, although he will be facing easier pitching in the National League than he faced while with the Indians, Dodger Stadium is not likely to give Blake any breaks. In his admittedly-short time with the Dodgers in 2008, Blake hit .251/.313/.460, which seems like a reasonable facsimile of what to expect in the future. It’s likely that his OBP will be somewhat higher, but Dodger Stadium is a difficult place to hit. The stadium may not hurt Blake’s power, but it will probably sap some of his batting average, perhaps dropping it dangerously low. Furthermore, while Blake will get to hit in Coors Field and Chase Field, he will also have to hit in PETCO Park and AT&T Park, very difficult offensive environments.

Blake could stave off decline for yet another year, but I wouldn’t bet on it. He’s a decent fallback option, but if Blake is your starting third baseman, it should be because you’ve loaded your team up in every other area and are forced to take Blake very late.

Casey Blake has had a nice career to this point, but eventually his age is going to catch up with him, and that could very well begin to happen in 2009.