Carlos Carrasco – Top Five Starter?

Last winter, I became known as the Carlos Carrasco guy. I started by bullishly ranking him fifth among starting pitchers. He had so many factors in his favor – a great Arsenal Score, an outstanding 2014 finish, and an improved Indians defense.

The end result left me feeling both disappointed and vindicated. He was the 15th best starter with $16 of production. He outperformed his teammate Corey Kluber (14th best) on a per inning basis. The biggest point in my favor? His 2.66 xFIP ranked fourth among starters. His 2.74 SIERA also ranked fourth. How about it? Carlos Carrasco: top five starter?

This year, in my super-early round of rankings, I have Carrasco sandwiched 16th between Chris Archer and Matt Harvey. Entering his age 29 season, Carrasco is coming off the best season of his career. He threw 183.2 innings with 10.58 K/9, 2.11 BB/9, and  3.63 ERA. As noted above, his ERA was nearly a full run above the best ERA estimators.

Time has taught us about Carrasco’s lone flaw. I think you’ll notice it in this chart.

Remember, we loved Carrasco last offseason because of his complete repertoire. However, hitters teed off on his fastball, especially lefties (.337 avg, .611 slg). The pitch induced an adequate seven percent whiff rate, and it averaged over 95 mph. He survived by using the fastball just 41 percent of the time.

The four other pitches in his repertoire remained fantastic. His bowling ball sinker piled up a 73 percent ground ball rate without the home run problems that plague most sinkers. It helped him to 17 double plays which tied him for 19th best in the league.

Given the success of his sinker, he might benefit from using it a little more frequently in place of his fastball. In particular, he predictably used his straight fastball in 0-0 counts. Forty-five at bats ended on a first pitch fastball. In those, hitters had a .333 average and .600 slug. In the 25 at bats that ended on a first pitch sinker, hitters had a .200 average with no extra base hits. Obviously, we’re talking about small samples, but Carrasco could seemingly improve his game theory.

Carrasco’s offspeed stuff is his bread and butter. The changeup was effective against everybody, but he used it over 20 percent of the time in all counts to left-handed hitters. It kept them seriously off balance. With high whiff and ground ball rates, I’d like to see him use it more often.

His go-to out pitch is the slider. He threw 31 percent sliders to righties compared to 13 percent to lefties. Against same-handed hitters, Carrasco used the slide piece in any count. Lefties could eliminate it until they fell behind in the count. The pitch was slightly unlucky this season, allowing an elevated HR/FB ratio and a .388 BABIP to right-handed hitters. Batters whiffed just under half the time they swung at it (26 percent swinging strike rate).

Speaking of whiffs, his infrequently used curve ball carried an elite 28 percent whiff rate. I do wish he’d exchange a few sliders for curve balls, but it’s possible his low usage helps the pitch perform better.

Steamer, being a regression machine, projects a 9.67 K/9, 2.30 BB/9, and a 3.04 ERA (2.96 FIP). Me, being a human capable of considering unprogrammed factors, projects anything from a 2.40 to a 3.80 ERA. Carrasco can potentially improve by polishing his sequencing and favoring his best pitches more often. He could decline if he loses a tick of velocity of feel for his three offspeed offerings.

Last season was hit first time making 30 starts since 2010. We can hope for better endurance and a full 32 start complement. That would put him up around 200 innings. The Indians are straddling the line between contending and rebuilding. Defense is a strength for the club, but the offseason questionable. Carrasco may lack the run support necessary to put up a big win total. Ask Kluber about that – he went 9-16 last season.

When I originally hyped Carrasco, he was one of three breakout pitchers who had me excited. Since then, Jake Arrieta and Jacob deGrom have stolen the limelight. That could leave Carrasco as a relative bargain on draft. Oh, you’ll still pay out the nose, he just might cost less than other potential top five starters.