Cardinals’ Playing Time Battles: Hitters
We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.
The Cardinals starters — and even their reserves — are mostly set. Jedd Gyorko was acquired in return for Jon Jay and should serve as the primary backup to Matt Carpenter at third base, Jhonny Peralta at shortstop and Kolten Wong at second base. None of the starters ahead of Gyorko are in danger of losing their starting jobs, but should any of them suffer an injury, the former Padre could have modest deep-league value as a middle infielder with average to above average power (.158 ISO and 49 homers in 1,426 career plate appearances), albeit with an ugly average (.247 last year and .236 for his career). That said, there’s no playing time battle at second base, shortstop or third base. There is, however, a fierce battle to be waged at first base. The outfield is essentially settled, but there is one position worth monitoring during the year.
First Base
A pair of left-handed batters, Matt Adams and Brandon Moss, will battle for the starting gig at first base. The handedness and splits for the duo basically eliminates the possibility of the two splitting time there in a strict platoon. Adams is completely lost against lefties with a 30.9% strikeout rate, .241 wOBA and 50 wRC+ against them in his career. Moss, on the other hand, has been a tick above average against lefties since joining the Athletics in 2012 (.321 wOBA and 105 wRC+). That said, Moss has primarily been used in a platoon role and largely shielded from left-handed pitching, so take his palatable numbers against them with a grain of salt. The struggles of each against lefties could open the door for playing time at first base for Matt Holliday. Yup, you read that correctly. Holliday has begun the process this offseason of learning how to play first base. If he takes well to the position this spring, he could offer the club a right-handed complement to Adams or Moss. If he struggles, right-handed outfielder Stephen Piscotty could also play there on occasion against lefties. The second-year big leaguer played 11 games (nine starts) at first base for the Red Birds in his rookie season.
Since 2012, Adams and Moss have posted nearly identical wOBA marks — .355 and .356, respectively — and wRC+ totals — 128 for Adams and 129 for Moss — against right-handed pitchers. The approach of each hitter to reach those totals has been different, but from an overall offensive value standpoint, they’ve been equally good against righties. Adams missed most of last year with a quad tear, but when he was on the diamond, he struggled with the stick. In 159 plate appearances against righties last season, he hits just .247 with a .283 OBP and five homers. At his best, Adams offers above average power and a strong batting average against righties. His low walk rate (5.9%) has resulted in a mediocre and batting average driven OBP, and gamers in leagues that use OBP instead of batting average need to be cognizant of that fact. In Adams’ last healthy season, his power was underwhelming relative to the position, too. In 433 plate appearances against righties in 2014, the burly first baseman hit just 12 homers with a .187 ISO. He did hit for a high average (.318) that year, and his 23.0% line drive rate, 4.5% infield fly ball rate and 37.9% hard-hit ball rate bodes well for him continuing to post high averages annually. If Adams wins the starting job, he’ll have fantasy value as a corner infielder or utility option in 12-team mixed leagues or larger.
Moss played in 145 games for the Indians and Cardinals combined last season. He wasn’t himself most of last year, though. He underwent hip surgery after the 2014 season and lacked his typical thump. From 2012-2014, Moss swatted 66 homers with a .269 ISO in 1,130 plate appearances against righties. He hit 15 homers with a .194 ISO in 358 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, last season. Interestingly, his average home run and fly ball distance jumped from 281.35 feet in 2014 to 285.05 feet last season, according to Baseball Heat Maps, despite the homer and ISO nosedive. As recently as 2013, Moss ranked among the league’s elite in average home run and fly ball distance checking in 30th with an average distance of 295.67 feet. Perhaps a normal offseason will allow him to recapture some of his power in 2016. Moss won’t help teams in batting average with sub-.270 averages each of the last three years and a .228 batting average in 2014 and .219 batting average in 2015 against righties. He will move the needle in homers, though, and his single-season low for walk rate against righties since 2012 is 9.2%. His plate discipline should prevent him from being a black hole in OBP if he bounces back and wins the first base job. Prior to last year’s struggles, Moss posted OBPs of .363 in 2012, .353 in 2013 and .328 in 2014. Moss can have similar fantasy value to Adams as a corner infielder or utility player, however his value will be derived from different category contributions. It appears to be a truly open competition with no favorite. Moss has the added benefit of being able to fake it in the corner outfield, though, so that presents a second path to playing time should he fail to secure the starting job at first base.
Center Field
I’m stretching a bit — okay, more than a bit — calling center field a “position battle.” The job will be Randal Grichuk’s to start the season. The power-hitting outfielder slugged 17 homers with a .272 ISO in 350 plate appearances for the Cardinals last year. There are warts in his offensive game, though. He walked in just 6.3% of his plate appearances — and low walk rates have been the norm for him in his professional career — while striking out at an alarming 31.4% clip. Among batters who tallied a minimum of 350 plate appearances last season, Grichuk’s 15.6% SwStr% was tied with Chris Davis for the 10th highest in the majors. Grichuk’s power is legit, and he ranked 23rd in average home run and fly ball distance (302.21 feet), per Baseball Heat Maps. He didn’t just hit the ball far, either, he hit screamers ranking fourth among hitters with at least 100 at-bats in 2015 in average FB/LD exit velocity (97.77 mph), according to Baseball Savant. Circling back to his approach, his lack of plate discipline and swing-and-miss approach could pose problems and undermine his power.
If that’s the case, he’ll be reliant on his glove keeping him in the lineup, and it’s unclear how good his glove is. Grichuk has earned a higher UZR/150 in center field than in either corner outfield position, although it’s important to note the sample size for all outfield positions is small. Grichuk has played just 54 games in left field, 42 games in center field and 41 games in right field in the majors. Last March, Kiley McDaniel noted Grichuk fits better in right field but could play center “in a pinch.” With that in mind, it’s best to pump the brakes on anointing him an asset as a defender in center field. If Grichuk’s strikeouts cripple his offensive value and his defense takes a step backward, Tommy Pham stands to be the player who sees the most significant bump in playing time.
Pham’s minor league numbers overstate his offensive ability. His patience carried over from the minors, though, and he walked in 11.0% of his plate appearances in his first substantial taste of big-league joe. He has a bit of pop and some speed, but he won’t make major contributions to either category. If pressed into full-time duty, Pham would have NL-only league value and some value in deep mixed leagues.
You can follow Josh on Twitter @bchad50.
As a Cardinal fan, I have faith in Grichuk…though I did just trade him in my dynasty league for M. Conforto straight up (Conforto $10, Grichuk $2). I know I won that trade…but it still makes me nervous. Grichuk .272 ISO was Top 10 only behind the likes of the elite power hitters.
I like that deal for you a lot, but I’ll add that I’m a huge sucker for Conforto.
If it turns out that Grichuk is a significantly better hitter than Conforto, your cards will be in VERY good shape.
on what basis do you figure pham’s minor league numbers overstate his offensive ability? you don’t even attempt to vaguely gesture at a justification for that statement.
if you look at the data – i mean you cite the exit velocity numbers as evidence that grichuk hits “screamers”, but if you drop the AB limit on the same list to 70, there’s pham at #11. overall, in the majors. and he has much better strike zone control and contact numbers than grichuk.
http://baseballsavant.com/apps/hit_leader.php?game_date=&abs=70&sort=3,1&type=batter
pham has been held back by a variety of issues (injuries, eye problems) until he’s stuck at an age where people tend to dismiss him, but i actually think he’s really talented, possibly even the best of that group of three young cardinals OF (along with piscotty). have to see how it plays out, of course.
oh that link isn’t going straight to the correct sort like i thought it would. you gotta click on the avg FB/LD header twice. but, he’s there
include grounders and pham moves up to #8 overall, ahead of grichuk.
nobody else fluky is up there, either, in spite of the low cutoff:
1. stanton
2. greg bird
3. sano
4. conforto
5. miguel cabrera
6. bautista
7. goldschmidt
8. pham
9. schwarber
10. grichuk
11. david ortiz
12. cespedes
13. trout
14. duda
15. braun
I can understand the optimism, and I probably should have expanded upon that statement. You point out the injuries holding him back and delaying his rise to the minors. That said, any time a player has a great deal of success at the minors at an age that’s older than the competition, the onus is on that player to continue to “prove it.” It’s not necessarily fair, but — using one example — Evan Gattis had to do the same. I’m also skeptical of players who fail to earn prospect accolades, especially those who are putting up good numbers. It’s one thing for a toolsy player struggling and not making it on prospect lists due to questions about the utility of their tools. It’s another thing for a player to post strong numbers — which undoubtedly prospect evaluators and scouts notice — and still fail to crack a team’s top prospect list. That’s not to say prospect evaluators and scouts are infallible, but the shiniest Pham write-up is an endorsement from Carson last year (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-st-louis-cardinals/). Yes, the Cardinals do have a knack for developing some off the radar players. They may be better at it than anyone, but the complete lack of love for him is troubling. Furthermore, the Cardinals evaluators preferred Grichuk to Pham. Both were on the 40-man roster last year, and Grichuk got the first crack and saw regular time in center field despite the fact Pham appears (from a small sample size of defensive metrics) to be the better center fielder defensively. Of course, there could have been other factors that motivated that decision, but the Cardinals were in it to win it last year, and they leaned more heavily on Grichuk than Pham. All in all, I’m not saying Pham is awful, but unless you think Pham is a 15-30 .324 guy (or slightly worse since he’s moving up levels), as he basically was at the Triple-A level in 2014 if he’d received 600 PA, then his work in the minors is overstating his offensive abilities.
Using that logic you could say almost every players’ minor league numbers overstate their offensive abilities.
personally i think a lot of evaluators are too hidebound about age vs level in cases like this where there’s an actual reason, other than “failure at younger ages”, to explain what’s taken them so long to come up. bad eyes & injuries in pham’s case, or four years away from the game in gattis’.
it’s funny you mention gattis, i was a big fan of his too back when a lot of people were laughing him off as methuselah or whatever. the point’s not to just jump on board every old dude with good stats, age is definitely an important consideration generally. but, you gotta know when to make an exception.
so for me the age situation mostly explains why no one rates pham. but i’m pretty sure they’re wrong. i mean, as sure as you can be about something like this.
and pham pulled a quad (again) in spring training last year, which i think had a lot to do with grichuk moving ahead of him on the cards’ conveyor belt. although i wasn’t really following the situation closely at that point so i’m not sure that’s why. and, i mean, grichuk also looks like a pretty good player.
but just look at the exit velocity stuff i posted. it’s hard to fake that. i actually think he’d beat 15 homers pretty easily if they turned him loose.
Fifteen homers will be hard to attain unless he hits the ball in the air more. More than half of his batted balls were grounders. The list of guys who hit 15 or more homers with a ground ball rate north of 50% last year was small-ish. I counted 13 players out of 120 who hit 15 or more homers in 2015 who also had GB% of 50% or higher.
fair point. but a guy who’s showing up on leaderboards of the hardest ball-hitters in the majors like this seems like he has a decent shot to be one of the exceptions, if anyone’s going to be.
he already hit 5 out in the majors in less than 200 PA, including a slow start as a rookie, and got another one in his 5 playoff PA. the 2014 line you originally extrapolated to 15 is actually pretty much his lowest ISO in any significant sample in the minors since he got his eyes fixed around 2010 or 11 or whenever it was. of course, his entire minor league record is pretty fragmented and hard to read. but he seems to pretty consistently get about 5 or 6 homers per 150-200 PA.
so maybe he wouldn’t “easily beat” 15, but i feel like he’d get to around there somewhere.
the trick would be staying on the field long enough to do it, which he’s notoriously had trouble with. but i read an interview where he describes it as sort of similar to the problem harper was having, running into outfield walls at full speed and so on, and… learning not to do that. and pham was saying he’s finally kind of registered that he needs to chill out a little bit in order to stay on the field. hard to know if that’s really the deal, of course, until he does it or doesn’t do it
What about 2nd base? Do you figure that battle is already over? Or just a straight platoon with Gyorko and Wong?
I think Wong will be given every opportunity to prove he can hit lefties well enough to play everyday. The sample size is tiny, but he fared well against southpaws in 2014. He’s also a superior defender to Jedd Gyorko at second base. If Wong struggles against lefties, a platoon does make sense, but I believe Wong will be awarded some leash.
While Holliday is attempting to learn first base, I can almost guarentee you won’t see him actually play the position during the season, at least not in 2016. Why would Matheny ever trot him out there when Piscotty is a much better option for that role?
If Matheny feels Holliday can fake it at first base and provide similar-ish defensive value to Piscotty there, and he also feels Piscotty is a superior outfield defender — Holliday has posted just one season of positive, 0.3, defensive value in his career — it would make sense to leave the younger outfielder in the outfield and move Holliday to first. Also, I recognize Piscotty posted negative defensive value in the outfield last year, but the sample size is small and his scouting grade is average in the outfield (which would be an upgrade from Holliday).
Personally, I don’t think Moss’s huge drop in production can even be close to fully explained just by having surgery the previous offseason. If I were the GM, I would’ve non-tendered Moss and resigned Reynolds to platoon with Adams. Then again, I’m not a GM or affiliated in any way with the team, so I could be way off base here, but that’s how I see it.
I am 99.9% he played at a substantially lower weight last year and indicated that sapped his power. I tried desperately to find a source to back that up so that I could include it in the article, but I couldn’t find one. I’m thinking it might have come up on MLB Network. It’s definitely possible there’s more to blame for the power outage, but considering the financial commitment of tendering him, it appears the Cards are buying a bounce back.