2013 Draft Day Retrospective: Clint Frazier and Eric Jagielo

It is MLB draft day, which is an exciting time for prospect focused fans and especially dynasty league participants. I already have three potential first rounders on my dynasty team, so I will certainly be focused on today’s action. Unfortunately, it usually takes a few years for even college players to make their debuts, and it is not uncommon for high schoolers to spend five years in the minors before coming up to the majors.

Looking back at the 2013 first round draft, I currently have two first rounders from that season on my roster and thought taking a look at their production and projections would be valuable for those in similar long term leagues.

Clint Frazier:

Frazier was a darling of the draft in 2013, with some speculating he could be the number one overall pick. The homers he was hitting in batting practice in the Georgia High School circuit were legendary, and the Indians used the fifth overall pick to draft the toolsy right-handed outfielder.

Prior to the season, Frazier was ranked 101 among all prospects by Kiley McDaniel and ranked second in the Indians system. While he has performed well this year, Brad Zimmer has certainly passed him on the rankings among Indian prospects.

Frazier’s big issue entering the year were strikeouts, and it has been very nice to see him drop his rate from 29.7% to 23.3% as he has moved up a level. Kiley was hoping his strikeout rate would be near the 20% mark this year as it will likely rise when he gets to the majors, and rising from a 30% rate is not a formula for success.

So far this year, Frazier has played 53 games and has six home runs and five steals. It is doubtful that he will hit for a quality average, but he should end up displaying a good deal of power and speed in the future. For fantasy leagues and deep league dynasty formats, speed and power from the outfield is almost always valuable. Frazier is still young for his level (with a -2.7 age difference) and his power is continuing to develop despite his lack of size. It is doubtful that he ends up being any type of transcendent player that the Indians may have hoped he would become on draft day in 2013, but he can certainly be a valuable asset to their team and fantasy leagues by 2018 at the latest.

Eric Jagielo:

Jagielo was a big power hitter coming out of Notre Dame and he has continued to develop as such in his minor league tenure. As a college bat, Jagielo has advanced through the Yankees system rather quickly and is currently performing at a very high level in double-A.

Currently, Jagielo is hitting .286/.356/.515 with nine home runs and 17 other extra base hits. As a left-handed hitting third baseman, he is a good fit for Yankee Stadium. As Greg Bird only recently got off the disabled list after suffering a shoulder injury, the Yankees had him play first base for the first two games of his professional career. It was assumed on draft day that he would end up moving over to first base, where his defense would play better while his bat dragged, but currently it is still open for him to end up at either spot. The potential for him to play either position at the major league level is a plus, whether it ends up with the Yankees or somewhere else, as it adds to his flexibility if the Yankees opt to trade him.

Jagielo has not stolen a base or even attempted to steal a base in his minor league career, so the expectation is that he will be a lefty-slugger who can help in the power categories. His strikeouts have dropped this year and his average has gone up, so while he does not have a likelihood of ever hitting .300 he also should not be a hindrance there either. He is close to major league ready now but has no path to the majors. With how the Yankees handle prospects, it is certainly plausible for them to move Jagielo relatively soon and for him to be a starter somewhere by next season.