Buy High on Starling Marte
Starling Marte is off to an incredible start, and nobody should be surprised about it. He does not have a great walk rate, his strikeout rate is a bit concerning given that fact, and he relies on a rather high BABIP to produce – so when he runs into tough luck at the plate he won’t be much use whatsoever. Regardless, his combination of power and speed make him a player who is in for the long haul and not just an early season streak.
I expect his ISO to sit right around where it is now, around .150 if not a bit lower. ZiPS has him at 11 homers for the full season including the two he has already hit, which I think is reasonable albeit possibly on the lower end of the spectrum. He hit 17 between triple-A and the majors last year, so reaching the teens is far from inconceivable. One argument against such a high home run total is his ground ball to fly ball rate, which ranks among the top ten in baseball and was quite similar in his 167 plate appearances last season. This is more than likely a good quality for a speedster who you are really owning or looking to own for his steals. Those BABIPs should stay rather high as the righty pushes grounders into the hole and beats out infield singles. He has five infield hits already, which also ranks in the top ten in baseball.
Where his batting average settles down is the real key with Marte. He is obviously not a .327 hitter when you look at the strikeout rate and BABIP north of .400. Last year he had a relatively high BABIP at .333 and still hit just .257 for the year. This is another time I look at ZiPS rest of season numbers and agree with their projection. A .273 average for his remaining 500 or so plate appearances is fine considering the other categories he should help in. Not killing your average while not being an asset makes the stat a relative push, so if you are expecting high average and on base percentages along with the 10-15 homers and 30+ steals you are being very optimistic. But even if you drop the rate stats down, that is a very valuable player and one I would be looking to “buy high” on in most leagues.
The odds are most of Marte’s owners are extremely happy with his production so far but also willing to move him if they get a player back that valued higher on draft day. His performance is still in a small sample size so owners could be looking to cash in. My suggestion is to take advantage of that, make an quality offer for Marte and reap the spoils of a player hitting in front of one of the game’s top hitters. One type of league where I may not suggest this is a net stolen base league, since his rate has historically been sub-par. However, if your league just tallies steals with no penalty for getting caught, buy high on Marte sooner rather than later because his value will only increase.
Ben has been at RotoGraphs since 2012 and focuses most of his fantasy baseball attention toward dynasty and keeper leagues.
Would you give up Gallardo in order to get Marte? I was just offered that deal and I’m weaker at hitting so acquiring Marte could be helpful. I’m just not sure if giving up Gallardo would be overpaying
I’m concerned with Gallardo’s FB velocity, in decline 3 years in a row. Striking out 5.5/9 right now.
Not a Gallardo fan, I find Hammel, Wandy, Milone in the same tier (all free agents in my league)
I have Desmond Jennings and BJ Upton, hate them both, I would rather have Marte.
Your rotation is very solid, 10 team league I guess?… Do the deal
Correct, 10-team league…I’m leaning towards making the deal
I’d make the deal but I disagree with your assement that Yovanni is in the same class as Hammel, Wandy, Milone. The guy is as sure a bet for 200 k’s as anyone in baseball. The players you mentioned have never even sniffed 200 let alone passed it, and Yovanni has done it 4 years running. If he was off to a better start I doubt he’d be mentioned in a deal for Marte. You might be right that this is the year that doesn’t happen, but he’s always had an ERA on the higher side and still maintained top 100 value. Yet, he’s always been a slow starter as his career ERA in March and April is 4.13. Personally I’d wait to trade Yovanni as he’s at his best in May and June through his career (2.77 AND 2.97 respectively).
I don’t like Gallardo much. I’d make the deal.
I’m not current on YoGa’s performance to date but unless there are really unique circumstances I’d sit tight. Gallardo has perennial Cy You g skills.
Agree with you. Gallardo seems like an overpay for Marte. Who are your other pitchers, Ben?
My other starting pitchers are Strasburg, Samardzija, Fister, Minor, Cobb and Greinke (DL). Still solid, but losing Gallardo would hurt
actually I might do that deal. His swinging strike rate is not great this year, velo down, and you have enough to make it to Greinke.
I would do that deal. YoGa is perpetually overrated in my mind since coming up as an elite prospect. The strikeouts are nice, but in decline and not dominant, and we’re now talking about a guy with a 1.30 career WHIP who is approaching 1,000 big league innings.
I traded Marte and Halladay for Anibal Sanchez and Jay Bruce. Made out like a bandit
Yes you did!
I similarly traded Marte and Konerko for Jay Bruce. Probably gave up a little too much, but I wasn’t playing Konerko anyway so I’m satisfied.
doesnt beat trading Dominic Brown for Chris Davis
I have Marte in Ottoneu FG Points and have been occasionally streaming him against RHP– in a very limited sample size in 2012 his wOBA vs RHP was .275. His wOBA against RHP in ’13 thus far is a respectable if unamazing .301, which is 40 PA short of the ’12 numbers. He destroys LHP, and is perfectly adequate at home against RHP and could prove to be adequate against RHP on the road too as time goes on.
All that to say, if you own Marte in a non 5×5 league, especially a keeper, maybe consider not trading him at all. He could be a lot of fun to own over the long haul.
Marte is in my outfield, and he is racking up stolen bases like crazy! He is also a very good hitter. I’m keeping him in the outfield.
Starling Marte I really am not a huge fan off…actually just traded him… but owners should take into account a few factors when looking at Marte… Clearly in a full season he will provide SB’s (prob 25-30) + around 10-13 HR’s but what else besides that… Take a look at his some factors and stats effecting xBABIP:
1. LD = 20% (league average) (+3% change from last year)
2. GB = 57% (much more than the league average 44%) (0% change)
3. FB = 21% (much less than the league average of 36) (-3% change)
4. IF FB = 0% (league average is around 10%) (-10% change) THIS WILL CHANGE
5. IF and Bunt hits have made up 6/35 hits (17%)
6. He is still chasing pitches outside the zone at about the same rate 34% (depending on stat used) just making contact with them more often. Actually 10% more often then last year which is a lot closer to league average
Taking into account the really high GB rate of 57% + his natural speed + his improved contact rate especially on pitches outside of the zone…we can naturally assume a higher xBABIP…
But this also means he is going to be streaky when it comes to average depending on whether or not the GB’s get through and if he can continue his poor plate discipline and continue to make good contact with pitches outside the zone… My guess rest of the year ( .260 to .270 avg / 10 HR’s / 24 SB’s / 320 OBP) with his BABIP falling back to his predicted normal of around .330
*REMEMBER WHEN TRADING your not paying for what he has done all of April you are paying for what he is going to do May – September which can you really expect a 300+ average?
For what it’s worth Marte had an unusually high BABIP during his time in the Minors, not suggesting that he’ll have BABIP of .400 (A), .424 (A+), .390 (AA), and .344 (AAA) at the Major league level, but something to consider.
yeah I ended with that saying predicted normal around .330 which is a decent amount higher than league average but maybe its more around .340 in either case I don’t see him batting any higher than 270 over an entire year unless he is just incredibly lucky or improves his plate discipline…
If he improves his plate discipline there is no reason not to believe that with a little luck and growth (only 24 yrs old) he could easily hit close to if not .300 so definitely something to keep an eye on.
With the caveat that while I have scene nearly all of his AB’s this year I am in turn unable to be totally objective about his prospects. With that out of the way a couple of statistical observations:
— Obviously you can’t cherry pick stats but aside from his 5K game against ATL a few weeks ago he’s had a K% of about 18.5%.
— Since then he’s had an 8:5 K/BB I believe. Which is a 13.8 K% and a BB of 8.6%. An arbitrary end point for sure. But worth keeping an eye to see if the positive trend continues, all though certainly not to that degree. I’m sure he’ll have (at least) another game or two where he strikes out at 3-5 times this summer, but I’ll be interested to see if can keep it around the 20% and 7%.
— I tend to think may hit a few more homeruns. I’d say 15-17. But you may well be right on, we’ll see.
that should be “seen” not “scene”
Well I believe actually watching a player bat and seeing how he performs is more valuable than statistics. In either case I was happy to trade him at his peak seeing as his trade led to a huge domino affect leaving me with a stud Manny Machado (who btw I have been raving about all year but only now ESPN notices) and several more like The panda but we will see…FOR SURE a player too keep an eye on the rest of the year and in future drafts
I just traded Brandon Crawford and Jeremy Guthrie for Marte, and Garrett Richards as a throw in (who I will probably drop).
I am deep in SS so I don’t think I am giving up much. My left fielders are Josh Hamilton and Melky Cabrera – both disappointments.
Thoughts?
How do we feel about an AJ Burnett – Marte swap? I need outfielders because I don’t trust Gerardo parra and I have deep pitching. AJ is leading the NL in Ks however and has added a couple of miles on his fastball. Tough decision. It’s a keeper though so maybe it’s not that tough
In a keeper league I’d make the deal. Marte will bring you more value than burnett
You start by saying no one should be surprised, then you state exactly why the performance to date is surprising.
What would it take to get Marte in a dynasty league? Im really deep at SP right now. Would one of Samardzija or Dickey get it done?
Its hard to value him in re-drafts, let alone in dynasty…his long term value could rise considerably. Im looking to buy now.
Samardzija strikes me as an overpay while I think Dickey would be worth it in a dynasty league.
if you’re so deep with SP that you’re thinking of trading samardzija, you should be able to get a better OF than marte
Trade Melky for Marte one for one in a total bases points league?
In a heartbeat
Would you guys trade Marte and Shelby Miller for Matt Kemp?
I mean in terms of their all around value, fielding included, for the next 10 years.
I do agree Marte may be above his true norm right now, but Miller could be a legitimate ace given time
What about trading Matt Kemp for Marte and Weaver? Offer was made to me this afternoon…
I’ve been mixing Marte in and out of my roster all year. Would you start him over Beltran or Fowler? My other outfielders are Trout and Bruce.
Was offered marte, chase headley, and wainwright for trout, gio and i would drop michael brantley. Am i ridiculous for strongly considering it?
Thoughts on trading away Marte for Heyward?
i just dealt strasburgh for marte. i am deep in pitching and horrendous in offense. am i a loser?
Almost a month later, Marte still going. Wanna cash out as I see the K’s starting to creep up and I’m loaded with top of the order guys and lacking in RBI/HR. Marte straight up for Nelson Cruz? Marte/Rollins for Bruce/Kimbrel? (need a third closer).
Bumgarner for Marte?
Would you take Marte and Lester for Kemp in an 12 Team H2H league? My Starting pitching is somewhat lack luster but this leaves me with a huge whole at CF