Bullpen Report: September 9th, 2015

Spent a little longer than usually updating the grid this evening, so hopefully most of the small issues that have crept up with it over the last week or two are mostly resolved. Also, while we here at the Bullpen Report are usually concerned with SP-eligible relievers who can help boost rates, check out David Wiers’ piece on potential RP-eligible starters down the stretch if you need to fill innings quotas for the rest of the season.

– Greg Holland pitched for a second consecutive day today. It was a non-save situation, and the righty retired the side on 7 pitches. The bad news? His velocity has not looked good, sitting at the lowest mark it has all year (it’s been an already down year). His strikeout and walk rates have been reasonably stable over the last few months (relative to early in the year) but his HardHit% has jumped to 39% since the all-star break (compared to just 19% before and 20% last year). It doesn’t seem that illogical to point out that his HR/FB% has been on the rise and IFFB% (a measure of weak contact) has been trending downward. Ned Yost has apparently conceded that Holland’s velocity “may not return,” an ominous side for the once dominant righty going forward. It is unclear whether the team is teetering on the edge of a change, and with Wade Davis gone in almost all leagues, there’s not a lot of speculating to be done here. We’re just kind of in wait and see mode, but I’m certainly not buying shares of Holland for less more than pennies on the dollar for the remainder of the year.

– Kevin Jepsen continues to get some fill-in saves as Glen Perkins tries to heal up. Perkins tossed a perfect 12th to finish off a cranky Royals team that allowed (what they believed to be) a four-strike home run to Miguel Sano in the top of the inning. The owner of a 2.39 ERA, Jepsen continues to outpitch his peripherals (4.05 xFIP) but he is only a year removed from more elite rates. Admittedly, the fastball velo is down a mph and the SwStr% is off a tick, but the batted ball profile is pretty much in line with career norms. Don’t expect world-beating ERA and WHIP, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Jepsen steal at least a couple more saves. Perkins said he is feeling better and wants to start playing catch soon, but he’s historically been somewhat slow to recover from these type of core muscle problems. While the Twins assuredly want their best reliever back in the fold as they desperately try to stay afloat in the American League wild card race, his reascension to the ninth inning does not appear imminent.

– Brad Ziegler hasn’t been flawless as of late, but looked OK picking up a multi-inning save versus San Francisco tonight. The sidearming righty didn’t whiff anyone, but didn’t walk anyone either, rather, inducing three grounders and a couple fly balls in his 1.2 innings of work. Ziegler has outpitched his peripherals this season, but then again, he’s done that for his entire career (2.55 ERA versus 3.53 xFIP). Of note, however, is a dramatic dip in K% to 13% — his lowest mark in 8 years. As long as two-thirds of the balls in pay against him are grounders, he’ll likely be OK, but his already mediocre velocity is down a bit this year, and down even further over the last couple weeks. His last couple outings bought him some job security (after giving up 7 runs a week ago), but it wouldn’t be totally out of left field for the DBacks to mix in a stray save opportunity for a guy like Daniel Hudson for the rest of September.

– Quick hits: With Jean Machi working the 6th inning today in Boston, he’s obviously no longer the top choice in Boston’s bullpen dumpster fire. Robbie Ross, Jr. gets the nod for now, but it’s tough to pin down a de facto option right now (it’s certainly not Craig Breslow, who again gave up multiple runs in a low leverage situation today). Cody Allen gave up a run today, but luckily he had 3 to work with. Mark Melancon bounced back from a hiccup the other day to notch save number 44. Fernando Rodney allowed a bunch of inherited runners to score against the Cards today. He’s not a legitimate late-inning option right now. Zach Britton, A.J. Ramos, and Trevor Rosenthal all also picked up rather uneventful saves.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]