Bullpen Report: Monday, June 22, 2015
• After losing the closing gig earlier this year, we figured that Addison Reed could have regained his role with improved performance in lower leverage innings. However, since then he’s only struggled and has now been demoted to AAA. It stands that Reed could theoretically still regain his familiar role in the ninth, but he’s far off the radar as of now. With Reed’s demotion comes Enrique Burgos‘ return from the 15-day DL. Burgos has nasty stuff, generating tons of strikeouts and is in someways the antithesis of current closer Brad Ziegler who has a paltry 4.50 K/9. Ziegler is converting the opportunities he’s given though, and his grasp on the job is fairly secure. Once Burgos gets a few innings under his belt, he could leapfrog Dan Hudson in the pecking order.
• With Brett Cecil’s collapse of late and after throwing 33 pitches last night, the Jays turned to Roberto Osuna for a 6-out save. Osuna delivered, walking one but striking out five for the two inning save, the first of his caeer. As of now it remains to be seen if this is a more permanent change or if Cecil was simply unavailable but my money is on this being something more significant and have put Osuna on top in the grid below. At the tender age of 20 years old, Osuna has been effective all year and could see the lion’s share of saves moving forward. Additionally, Steve Delabar who has been pitching quite well in 17 innings this year (1.06 ERA/3.46 FIP) could see some saves and/or more responsibility in the eighth for those in Holds leagues.
• Pedro Strop, Jason Motte and Hector Rondon pitched the last three innings yesterday but that order went Strop-Rondon-Motte in tonight’s game, confusing fantasy owners in leagues everywhere. It should be noted that although Rondon got the save yesterday, it was Motte who was called on for the ninth with Rondon pitching in extras. Motte has been the least effective reliever of the bunch (3.42 ERA/4.43 FIP) and struggled a bit tonight, allowing two hits including a Joc Pederson home run en route to earning the save. So, in spite of looking like the first option in the last two games, we still don’t really know how this will shake out. To make matters even more confusing, as Darren pointed out, Neil Ramirez and Rafael Soriano will be joining the club at some point as well. As of now, it seems as the Cubs are in committee mode with Rondon and Motte receiving saves but if forced to choose one, I would go Rondon.
• There isn’t necessarily any closer controversies in Detroit but Joakim Soria’s recent struggles continued tonight, allowing a homer in a non-save situation. Soria has now allowed runs in four consecutive appearances, many via the long ball. Soria still has excellent command but he has regressed a tad this year with his strikeout and swinging strike rates (7.8%) both in decline. The same organization that was so committed to Joe Nathan isn’t going to now look to Joba Chamberlain and Al Albuerquerque for the ninth, but Soria will have to find a better cure for his gopheritis this year (21.2% HR/FB%). Soria still has a respectable ERA (2.93) after this bad stretch, but if some poor sequencing allows for homers with more runners on base, his ERA can rise real quick.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
I agree with Osuna likely being the closer now, but don’t be surprised if Cecil gets the save opportunity if there is one tomorrow or Wednesday. Osuna has been heavily worked and is likely not available tomorrow and maybe not Wednesday.
I agree after 2 IP tonight, Osuna may get a bit of a break. I think we’ll see Delabar in the 9th before Cecil. Every Blue Jays loss in the past few weeks has been due to the bullpen, mainly Cecil, so I can’t see him back in there for awhile.
In terms of the immediate future, Osuna likely won’t see the ninth after a big inning last night but I’d put him in the drivers seat for total saves on Toronto moving forward. However, that’s of current Blue Jays as it’s likely a reliever comes over via trade that could take over the duties.
Why is St.Louis’ grid in yellow?
possibly because Rosenthal had sore arm issues, I think.
Yeah, this had to do with Rosie’s injury concerns earlier, I’ll change to green tonight.
Not that I necessarily disagree with it, but would you mind explaining your rationale for having Scheppers over Kela as First Chair in Texas? Thanks in advance.
I would question the basis for Rondon being listed ahead of Motte. With the way Madden has been using his bullpen of late, it’s clear that Motte has staked claim to the closers job. Rondon has been pitching better lately, and it’s fair to wonder whether or not he should have lost the job in the first place, but possession in 9/10s of the law and Motte has unsurped him. So, wishful thinking aside, Motte belongs in the first chair.
Do you think Madden wishes he could change Jason Hammels into Greg Maddox?
Over the last two games, Motte has looked the part but I’m taking a risk and placing a small bet that Rondon sees more saves moving forward. This could change but I have far less confidence in Motte than Rondon.
Because Rondon got like the last 3 saves before Motte randomly got one? And Strop got the last one before Rondon. Seems like Joe likes to mess with those of us chasing saves in fantasy.
References to any of the 3 Cubs RP as ‘less effective’ is splitting hairs; all 3 have been dynamite during the past month. The solo HR that Motte gave up tonight is the first ER this month. With a 3 R lead, giving up a solo shot is OK, since the emphasis is on ‘no walks’.
As the Cubs broadcasters proclaimed tonight, Motte is the closer from the WS CHAMPION CARDINALS and seems to be all the way back. That has a lot of value, more than having either of the other two as your closer. Not only does he reduce the number of saves for Rondon & Strop (reducing potential arbitration awards), but he would yield a bigger return if traded. As a free agent signee, saves from Motte just cost minor performance bonuses, so the Cubs win either way, whether they trade him or not.
Motte appeared in the top of the 9th inning in a tie home game on the 13th & 14th last week; that’s the closers spot since a save is impossible. So actually this is not even news now. (I picked him up last week.)
One minor quibble in regards to Motte is while his velocity is all the way back from his Cardinals days, his K-rate isnt and that’s my one concern going all in on him is that he just isnt striking people out anymore. He still throws plenty hard, but the surgery and setbacks seem to have sapped his swing and miss stuff.
Motte’s throwing hard but doesn’t generate any whiffs. He’s only striking out 15.2% of batters with a 6.7% Swinging Strike rate. I suppose it’s misleading to have Rondon in the grid when Motte is currently closing but I’m not convinced Motte nets more saves moving forward than Rondon.
Rondon got the last 3 saves before last night. And Strop got the one before those three.
Benjamin, can you give me some tips or suggestions on how to lower my era and whip? How many starters do you start per week or day, do you bench your closers when your starters start, and any particular splits I should pay attention to? Thanks!
Have better pitchers.
Harvey, Tanaka, Shields, Eduardo Rodriguez, Garrett Richards, Syndergaard, Cain, and Latos.
It depends if your league has an innings pitched or games start limit.
Figure 6 healthy starters for 30-35 starts a year on average. Of course that’s never the case so you’ll add and drop starters and skip some starts based on performance etc.
You should never bench a closer as they can get a save and a majority of closers have ERA/WHIP better than starters.
As dumb as it sounds, the best way to improve your ratios is to trade for better starters. Another way is to load up on middle relievers. If you don’t have a transaction limit, adding/dropping relievers based on matchups and expectation of an appearance can help. If a solid reliever hasn’t pitched in a few days, he’s likely to get an inning soon, etc.
I wouldn’t focus too much on splits unless you get granular, let’s say you have a lefty starter, you can check the opposing team’s splits against lefties and if they mash maybe you bench said starter.
Between Osuna and Motte, who is the better pick up in a standard Fantasy league?
probably Motte, the Blue Jays’ closer role is uncertain and Motte has more experience than Osuna. Osuna has more upside, but…
I actually kind of like Osuna here. He’s the better pitcher than Motte but there is concern the Blue Jays bring in another closer. However, as I’ve said in the comments here and in the post, I’m not too sold on Motte maintaining his role. If you can’t lose many points in ERA and just need immediate saves Motte might be your man.
If FRod gets traded do you really think Jeffress is the closer? I think Smith has more closing experience & I’m reading else where that he is more likely the closer in that case.
Tough to say, but I’d lean Jeffress. For what it’s worth Will Smith should be as enticing a trade option as K-Rod. The Brewers should have both on the table.
Also, if Clippard goes to the Jays & Papelbon goes somewhere is this the right rank – Giles > Scribner > Clippard?
I could see Mujica getting first crack at the closing job in Oakland if they trade Clippard as well. A’s are one of a handful of smaller market teams that may try to avoid having to raise Scribner’s arbitration value by giving him Save chances.
Giles would immediately be the best. Scribner and Clippard could be a toss up. Osuna would still be the best reliever in Toronto and Scribner isn’t guaranteed the ninth if/when Clippard leaves. But, I wouldn’t argue with your rankings.
Would you drop McGee for Osuna at this point?
Where do you think Peralta slots in the Dodger bullpen now that he’s back?
Didn’t Weiss say a day or two ago that kahnle is his guy in the 8th and high leverage situations?
Do you have a source on that? I haven’t seen it anywhere else and that might be super useful for my holds leagues.
I see Delabar over Osuna if only for arb rights rationale.
Maybe, but I think Toronto is pretty focused on who can slam the door at the end of their leaky bullpen. Maybe they turn to Delabar in the short term, but Osuna might get some Saves in the short term until they make a trade.
I think the arb rights thing is somewhat overblown. Sure Toronto probably wants to avoid paying Osuna more going forward, but Gibbons and AA desperately need to compete for a playoff spot if they want to keep their jobs IMO. I suspect that will lead them to putting in Osuna, arb rights be damned, if it gives them a better shot at winning games.
As if there weren’t enough evicence for Motte overtaking Rondon as the closers role, tonight’s game is yet another case in point. In a tie game at home, Madden used Rondon in the 8th and Motte in the 9th. Pretty clear that Rondon is the setup man and Motte, whether you like it or now, is the current closer. I’m curious as to when the authors will finally catch on…