Bullpen Report: May 6, 2013
• As Colin suggested last night, the Red Sox placed Andrew Bailey on the DL backdated by a week. He should return in not too long if the soreness subsides in his biceps, but if Bailey has one weakness it’s his ability to stay healthy. Joel Hanrahan would theoretically be back to his pre-season role as the full time closer for the Sox but Hanrahan blew the save tonight off of a Brian Dozier home run and left the game with an injury. We’ll have to wait to hear more information on Hanrahan but behind him in the seventh and eighth innings is Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara who have both been fantastic this season. One of them could figure to pick up a save if Hanrahan were to miss any time and both should be considered great options for holds this week as well. While Uehara won’t pitch consecutive days for the Red Sox I assume he’ll get the first nod for saves if Hanrahan and Bailey were to be out.
• Greg Holland blew his second save of the season today allowing one run and letting five guys reach base in his inning of work. In extras, Kelvin Herrera threw two frames but allowed a run himself in the 11th inning via a home run from Jordan Danks. For Holland, today’s earned run marked the first he’s given up in his last nine innings pitched. Meanwhile, since blowing away everyone in early April, Kelvin Herrera has given up eight earned runs in his last nine innings pitched with an insane six home runs allowed in that span. Herrera won’t maintain a 37.5% HR/FB all season and his xFIP of 3.02 is more indicative of what to expect moving forward over his 5.02 ERA and 6.85 FIP but his struggles have certainly given Holland plenty of cushion on his hold in the ninth inning, even if he blows a save here and there. It also doesn’t hurt when you have a K% inches away from 40%.
• Fernando Rodney finished 2012 as one of the best pitchers (including starters) in fantasy baseball, but 2013 hasn’t been so kind him. Rodney blew his second save tonight against the Blue Jays attempting the five-out save and now supports a 5.06/5.73/4.38 ERA/FIP/xFIP and a horrendous 7.59 BB/9. Rodney’s 2012 should give him a longer leash than other closers but the only year he’s ever exhibited an semblance of control was 2012 and if that performance remains the exception and not a new rule, Joe Maddon might look Joel Peralta’s way. Peralta has only allowed two earned runs in 13.2 innings with a 1.91 FIP and a 9.88 K/9. The strikeouts are down from his 2012 career high of 11.28 K/9 but Peralta’s actually missed more bats this season with a career high 13.6% SwStr%, up from last year’s 12.7%. I won’t suggest a change is imminent, but Peralta is ownable in a set up role and is an intriguing target for those in need of saves.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
Should I hold onto Bailey or drop him for Uehara? I have two other closers besides him.
I actually dropped Bailey for Tazawa. The Red Sox don’t like to use Uehara on back to back days when they can avoid it and he’s got a bit of a HR problem. I think of him like Benoit a bit. Meanwhile, Tazawa throws harder and has more of a closer profile. I went with Tazawa.
Or you could wait like three days and see if the closer who was lights out is coming back. Right?
I wouldn’t drop Bailey as he’s supposed to come back relatively soon.
Uehara and/or Tazawa are good speculative pickups, but not if you’re dropping Andrew Bailey.
I’ve been riding out Axford in hopes that he would get his closer role back soon enough, but with the way he’s pitching it doesn’t seem like it’s going to happen. Should I just go ahead and drop him for Uehara or Peralta or someone?
For a week or so it looked like Axford was righting the ship but he’s been shaky in the last couple of outings.
If your ratios are a concern, it might be benefical holding onto an Uehara or Peralta who are maybe further away from saves but more or less guaranteed to not hurt your team.
In what scenario is recent call up Carlos Martinez rosterable? Does he stick in the pen? Will he leap-frog Rosenthal to take over once the Music Man implodes?
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Yes, Toots *was* asking a question. Great diagnosis there!
Martinez has some fantastic stuff, nearing triple digits on the radar gun and should be a relief ace/ratio helper on any team in need.
Mujica is pitching well right now and is in no danger of losing the job soon but I’d say Rosenthal is still second in line.
How long will Mujica stay yellow? Seems like he’s fairly comfortable in the role…
This is a good point, I’ll make the change for the next Bullpen Report.
I would say the same for Henderson, especially with Axford’s recent struggles.
Pestano went on the 15 day DL yesterday. It’s retroactive and the team seems optimistic about his recovery, but “elbow soreness” is always worrisome. Joe Smith has the 8th while he’s out.
Thanks for the tip, will mention it tonight.
Heh, Tazawa listed above Uehara for weeks until the moment when it actually becomes relevant….
I know Farrell had one quote in which he said they would avoid Uehara on back-to-back days, but I think actual usage trumps that. He has used him back-to-back 3 times, which is the same amount of times as Bailey was used that way (and Hanrahan never pitched back to back days).
It’s a fluid situation and a lot of judgement calls, so apologies for any confusion in this space. At the moment however, my feeling is Koji getting the first save chance if Hanrahan and Bailey are out.
I think Koji too
Shows what I know…John Farrell said he’d use Tazawa in the ninth and keep Koji in the eighth. Act accordingly.
My mistake.
You were right all along, should have stuck to your guns!