Bullpen Report: May 26, 2013
• I feel like I write “uh oh” a lot. Uh oh. Chris Perez left Sunday’s game with a sore shoulder. Boston rallied from three runs down to win but it’s tough to tease out how much of that was the shoulder and how much was Perez just being bad. Either way, shoulder injuries, especially those that require coming of a game mid-inning are nothing to scoff at. Regardless of what the Indians said after the game, this seems likely to be longer than a day-to-day thing, and could possibly land Perez on the disabled list.
Looking at who might cover him while down, it’s a bit of a mess. Vinnie Pestano has been the heir apparent for a couple years now, but is dealing with a 5.25 ERA and strikeout/walk rates that are well below/above his career averages. He’s always struggled against lefties (.339 career wOBA against), but this year righties are hitting him hard, too (.307). Not to mention his SwStr% (although not too far from 2012) has dropped every year in the big leagues.
While Pestano is the most handcuffed guy in the Indians pen, there are a few other options. Joe Smith is the team leader in holds and he doesn’t have a terrible platoon split even with his funky delivery. Even though his 1.06 ERA is buoyed by a 96.2% LOB%, his 3.34 xFIP would be passable in the ninth. He was actually called upon today with the lead when Perez exited, but didn’t acquit himself well, giving up a game-winning double to Jacoby Ellsbury. Bryan Shaw is another guy who has a too-good-to-be-true ERA, but also has closing experience in Arizona and a live fastball. Cody Allen actually has the best peripherals on the team (2.86 xFIP) and has shown swing-and-miss stuff everywhere he’s been during his brief pro career, but is also the youngest and least proven.
Tough to call. I’m a big fan of going after skills when mining for relievers, so I’m personally chasing Shaw and Allen first and letting others fight for Pestano and Smith. Given the way Pestano is pitching, it’s tough to see him pitching the ninth and Smith has the sidearm bias working against him. Unfortunately, this is one of the bullpens where it may be too late to do anything once Terry Francona tips his hand.
• While Jim Johnson started to look better last week, all that goodwill with fantasy owners unravelled quickly on Sunday. With his fourth blown save, Johnson’s ERA now sits at 5.25. Interestingly, his ERA-xFIP differential is reverse what it was in 2012; he actually hasn’t changed much peripherally (strikeouts up a tick, but walks too) but his BABIP is .329 instead of .251 and his HR/FB% has doubled. We knew Johnson was unlikely to repeat his 2.49 ERA/51 save performance from last year, but he’s not quite this bad, either. If you are a skittish Johnson owner, scoop up Darren O’Day for some insurance, but JJ is likely barely in the yellow, if that. He has some leash.
• Jim Henderson did eventually hit the disabled list with him bum hammy. While Ron Roenicke claims committee, John Axford came in early yesterday and Francisco Rodriguez got the top of the ninth down by a run (at home) today. I’m betting on K-Rod in the short term. Kyuji Fujikawa also is getting an “injury vacation,” again for forearm issues. If you have been holding him in shallower leagues, you can cut bait for now. Kevin Gregg’s surprising hold on the ninth inning is that much stronger.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
There are few things Colin loves more in life than a pitcher with a single-digit BB%. Find him on Twitter @soxczar.
How long until Jansen is the closer already, come on.
I don’t know exactly what’s going on, but it was Javy Guerra last year, then Brandon League this year. They seem like they don’t want Jansen to lock down the closing gig. I know everyone says, “Use your best reliever in the most high-leverage situation,” but why not put Jansen into the closer’s role most of the time and use him in the 7th or 8th the few times the manager deems it an “extremely high-leverage situation.”
I’m hoping for Bryan Shaw. I was too late for Pestano and Smith.
Your and me both. I picked up Shaw in the beginning of May. Pestano was a keeper in my league but it seems likely he’s playing hurt.
I dropped Allen to pick of Shaw three weeks ago so I may end up kicking myself or patting myself on the back.
In any case, in a deeper league with a large reserve, it’s worth backing a few pitchers with a chance for saves.
Second elbow area injury for Fujikawa. Would you drop him for most #2’s at this point?
Yes.
Thanks!
I still think Vizcaino makes the CHC pen — at least at the start. Maybe ease him into the starting role? This seems to be the route many teams take and the CHC pen is in shambles. Vizcaino might be able to (somewhat) stabilize it.
How long do the Rays stick with Rodney? Just put Peralta in there already
ROS ranking: Gregg, Jansen, Peralta, Pestano? Drop Gregg to speculate on one of the three?
I would hold onto Gregg. As much as I doubt he can hang onto the job all year, for right now he is their closer and is doing the job pretty well. It’s hard to drop a guy you know is going to get save chances for one of those three that right now are in a state of flux. The only guy I would consider it with is Jansen, since if he were to get the job would be able to give you top 10 Closer production with his K’s.
I have Peralta in a 12 team league where I am on the hunt for a third closer, but even I would have a hard time holding onto him if someone like Joe Smith gets named the Indians closer. I mean as awful as Rodney has been Maddon has been pretty stubborn in his support of him and all it takes it a couple of cleanish saves and we probably kick this story down the road for another week or two until Rodney blows up again.
I’d rank them Gregg, Jansen, Peralta, Pestano for right now.
In fact, if the other three are on the wire, it’s a sign your league is either fairly shallow or slow to respond to bullpen turnover. In leagues like that you keep the guy notching saves and churn once new people are given the chance.
Gregg over Jansen just seems insane, but when you get into the details and how many times Jansen has been denied the closing gig, it makes a little more sense. Personally, I’d still go with Jansen over Gregg, but going with Gregg is less crazy than it sounds.
Where would you put K-Rod in those ranks? and I assume the other CLE guys are behind Pestano in that list you just gave? Cody Allen looks really tasty.
I need to emphasize, the above ranks are specific to jamesnewburg’s league where he stated that Jansen, Peralta, and Pestano were on the wire.
If you have guys like Jansen, Peralta, and Pestano floating around as FA’s, you should more concerned with gettings saves NOW because you know saves will be available in the future.
In leagues where all of the #2 guys are also gobbled up, the rankings change because you can’t just cut Gregg if/when he loses the job and pick up the next flavor the week.
In that case I’d probably go Jansen, Peralta, Gregg, Pestano.
I’d slot K-Rod just behind Gregg on both lists. Good for short-term saves, but doubt he holds job for the RoS. Also, doesn’t help out in K/WHIP like Jansen/Peralta would if they were closers.
We don’t know how much time Hunter will miss…but i’m surprised he isn’t mentioned as a fill-in should Johnson continue to struggle. O’Day has had troubles with lefties this year.
Adams back from the DL, should keep him or Cory Gearrin for holds?
I like Adams a little better just because of the track record, but I could see an argument for either.
Any thoughts on MIA? Cishek has been used in non-closer situations. Dunn looks like a LOOGY. Could it be Qualls? He was in the pen with the last closing situation.
Staying away from Miami.
I think Cishek still probably gets the majority of the save situations if you know the ninth will be righty-heavy but this could be a matchups situation.
Qualls in the short-term, but I also think Ramos could have something to say by the end of the season.
Could be some trade candidates in that bunch, too.
I’m avoiding the Marlins bullpen at all costs right now. Obviously some leagues you cannot do that, but I would rather speculate on someone like Peralta or O’ Day or Joe Smith on the off chance they get the closing job.
If you have to own one of their relievers I think Qualls or Cishek get the next save chance, but long term AJ Ramos likey gets the gig by the All-Star break.
Thanks both. My league is too deep to ignore MIA or any less than desirable closer situation. Other than Vinnie’s last outing, he doesn’t seem that far off track. Thoughts on BOS being just a bad outing? Before his last appearance, Vinnie had a 2.45 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
With the news of Chris Perez going on the DL this morning, who would you rather own, Joe Smith who appears to get the first crack at saves or Joel Peralta who I currently own waiting on Maddon to switch up the closer role?
I’d hold Peralta. Better pitcher, and easier path to “long-term” saves.
Thanks for the advice, I’ll hold Peralta even with the news of Pestano getting the closing gig. His injuries and drop in velocity scare me quite a bit and I think once Peralta gets the gig he can hold onto it.
Francona just said Pestano will close with Perez out.
Yup, just saw this.
I guess you have to scoop him up if he’s still available, but man, he’s been bad this year.
Agreed, Pestano has been disappointing. I have him in a league that counts holds. Because of that, I’d actually prefer it if he didn’t close. Anyway, there was a report saying that his problems are because his fastball is down about 3-5mph. The report goes on to say that Francona thinks its just a matter of building up arm strength. Personally, as someone that has rostered him the past couple of years, I think might be overworked.
I think Pestano is pitching hurt. I owned him in a holds league and dropped him before the Perez news. I obviously wish I still had him, but I would try to trade him instantly if anyone else in your league is snapping for saves. Either include him as a throw in to make a 2 for 1 or trade him for a recent waiver wire you missed out on.
Someone offered me their vernon wells for my ike davis. I don’t really see any huge drawbacks to this trade but there isn’t really much upside either. Any thoughts?
I would do it just cause its almost a euphoric feeling to get rid of ike davis…I think its what that new movie “the purge” is about.
As long as it’s not a keeper league, I would take Wells.
Davis keeps looking more and more like Adam Lind.
Is Benoit, Ryan Cook, Tazawa or Axford worth dropping for Scott Downs, Brian Shaw or Mike Dunn?
Of that group only Shaw is of interest to me depending on how Pestano fares as the closer. He might be second or third in line to save some games. Downs and Dunn might poach some saves here and there, but the Marlins are terrible and wont get many save chances to start with, now add in the only way Dunn is out there is because a team has 2-3 lefties due in the ninth. I think Frieri still is the guy in Anaheim, yes he may blow up soon considering his walk rate, but I think it would take a couple blown chances in a row for Downs to get a shot.
The other guys are all worth holding onto since they all appear next in line if Balfour, Bailey, K-Rod or Papa Grande get injured/slump.
The Indians pitching coach reportedly found a flaw in Pestano’s delivery, which the team believes has led to the diminished velocity he’s exhibited since returning from the DL (elbow)last week. I agree that Pestano’s numbers are off, but it’s important to note that he’s only had one bad game; May 25th when gave up 4 ER and coughed up a likely Indians victory in Boston. This is the outing where his velo was way down (87-88 mph), prior to the supposed discovery of the mechanical flaw. Other than the previously mentioned blowup at Fenway, Pestano’s numbers are right in line with his career norms (2.45 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10/5 K/BB Rate in 11 IPs.) One of the tough things about being a closer or a setup man is it takes a long period of time to repair the damages down 4-5 ER blowup. In any case, I’ll be keeping a close eye on the Cleveland bull pen in the coming days. Who’s next in line if Pestano falters? My guess would be Cody Allen. He fits the mold typically caste for a big league closer including a big heater (95MPH Avg) and a wipe out secondary pitch (power curve ball). Francona has been using him in higher leverage spots as the season has progressed.
Is Axford/Cook/Benoit worth dropping for Delabar?