Bullpen Report: May 18, 2015
• Darren talked about Neftali Feliz yesterday and now we know that he’s no longer the closer. The exact roles haven’t been redefined, but a 5.51/4.19/4.48 ER/FIP/xFIP line from Feliz can’t be tolerated in the ninth inning any longer. It’s not a velocity issue, as Feliz is in line with last year in that regard and more a simple regression. Although Feliz had a 1.99 ERA last year it was all smoke and mirrors with peripheral stats suggesting his ERA should be 4.00+. He’s now regressed and finds himself out of the closing mix for now, and possibly the rest of the year. Shawn Tolleson should be the insta-add now as he’s been the most effective reliever on the Rangers. However, with no defined roles of yet, they could look to Keone Kela or even the recently called up Tanner Scheppers. I would highly recommend using some FAAB budget or a waiver claim on Tolleson, with Kela as more speculation.
• It took Joe Girardi a few weeks to officially name Andrew Miller the closer, but it’s taking GM/Manager Dan Jennings less than 24 hours to name A.J. Ramos the Marlins’ closer. This comes as no surprise but I will keep their situation yellow, since Ramos hasn’t had much time to pad the manager’s confidence. This time next week Ramos should be in the Green. Tonight, Ramos entered the ninth inning in a tie game and proceeded to pitch a perfect inning, striking out two in the process.
• Enrique Burgos recorded his first save of the year tonight for the Diamondbacks, closing out the win in the 13th inning. After Rubby De La Rosa went nine frames, Brad Ziegler pitched a scoreless 10th and 11th, with Addison Reed maintaining the lead in the 12th. It still looks like Ziegler is still the man to own in Arizona at the moment but Reed could certainly reclaim his job again and Burgos could potentially have some value in spite of any save chances with a 1.74 FIP and 18 strikeouts in only 10.2 innings so far this year.
• Jake McGee is back and Brad Boxberger is having an excellent season leaving the Rays with a classic ‘good problem to have’ in the back of the bullpen as both are excellent closing options. Boxberger says that he is comfortable in whatever role he’s in but I would expect him to still see consistent save opportunities for the Rays.
• Quick Hits: Zach Duke picked up his 2nd win on the year against the Indians, evening his record to 2-2. Duke was fantastic in 2014, but he’s been less than stellar in Chicago early on. Still, he remains the primary left handed setup for the White Sox and should vulture a few more wins this year. The Brewers haven’t given K-Rod too many save chances but he’s now 8-8 after closing the door on the Tigers. Jeurys Familia’s perfect season ended with him blowing the lead against the Cardinals. He’s now 13/14 on the year and his grasp on the role isn’t going anywhere, even with Parnell and Vic Black working their way back from injury.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
In 14 team H2H weekly points league my RP starters are Jansen, Ramos, and Cecil.
There are some intriguing names on wire including Doolittle, McGee (both free agents) and Jesse Chavez who is RP eligible and clears waivers later this week. Yimi Garcia clears tonight.
Who should I aim to add? And should I drop Cecil or Ramos or lose a bench bat instead? My bench includes Lind (now backing up Belt) and either Choo or Fowler (taking turns starting while Puig is sidelined)
In our scoring system Saves (8) Wins (10) QS (5) Holds (4) K (2) IP (2) BB (-1) ER (-1) L (-5) BS (-4)
Thanks
I’d dump Cecil and keep the bat. Consider Doolittle before McGee because he has a clearer path to the closer job.
I’d hold onto Cecil (over Doolittle and McGee) for now since he looks much better of late… regaining some of the velocity he was missing to start the year. Although Doolittle has a fairly clear path to a closer job *IF* he’s healthy (enough), he’s actually in worse shape than Cecil at this point. At least you know Cecil has been regaining his stuff and proving it in MLB (and has no known serious injury to haunt him all season long), but Doolittle has only just started his rehab stint and will remain a substantial risk due to his shoulder injury.
McGee would’ve been the clear choice, except Boxberger is blocking him. I’d suggest keeping a close eye on that situation and jump on McGee at the first sign that Boxberger and/or Cecil is faltering — then you’d get points for the Holds and the other stuff.
And actually, depending on your batting points, maybe you should consider dropping a bench bat to pick up McGee anyway. Depending on how the batting points work, McGee might possibly be more valuable to you than Fowler, who isn’t exactly a reliable producer even when he seems to be healthy. You also didn’t mention your SPs and how many RPs you can actually play, etc. IF you can play McGee over your worst SP starter (perhaps depending on that week’s matchups), that might be better than keeping Fowler around, especially since you’re doing weekly lineups — the Choo/Fowler duo would be more worthwhile keeping if you can actually platoon them daily.
Oops! RE: jumping on McGee before he actually has the closer job, I meant to say you could get points for Holds, etc. while waiting for him to regain that job. He’s the kind of RP that might outperform some closers even while just being the setup guy. And the Rays do play in plenty of close enough games where he might also vulture a Win on occasion — their bullpen usage may be such that they won’t be too reluctant to play him in a tie or maybe down 1 late in the game.
Look at McGee’s line each of the last 4 seasons. He managed 5 Ws each season… even last year when he took over as closer around midseason…