Bullpen Report: May 11, 2016

• With Shawn Tolleson unavailable this afternoon, Sam Dyson picked up the save with a clean ninth inning. If it wasn’t clear enough, this solidifies Dyson has the second in line behind Tolleson, which could be important as the latter has not been at his sharpest so far in 2016. Tolleson’s 5.40 ERA and 6/4 shutdown/meltdown ratio are ugly, but the 3.67 xFIP isn’t all bad. His fastball velocity is right where it’s been in the past, but the swinging strike rate is down a few ticks, which is also noticeable in the strikeout rate. While Dyson’s raw stats (2.25 ERA) have been better, his 3.62 xFIP is almost identical to Tolleson’s. Dyson has also had the same pattern of similar velocity but somewhat suppressed stuff in the early going. Tolleson should be back on the bump for the next Texas save opp, but speculators (or Tolleson owners looking for a handcuff) should hold onto Dyson, as it’s not quite a green light situation. However, this doesn’t seem like one of those setups where a pitcher head and shoulders better than the incumbent is waiting in the wings, so don’t go out of your way to fret too much about pen turnover here.

• Jake McGee tossed a 1-2-3 ninth, and the outing lowered his already sterling xFIP to… 5.55. Credit where credit is due, the lefty has looked slightly better as of late, but his velocity remains well off what it was a couple years ago in Tampa. He’s getting next to no whiffs this year, either, even though he’s throwing his offspeed stuff (changeup curveball and slider) about 3x more frequently than his career averages. As talked about previously in the BR, there isn’t an obvious speculative add here, although Jason Motte and Miguel Castro threw bullpen sessions last week and seem (barring setbacks) to be inching towards minor league rehab stints (Motte actually headed out on one today) and possible arrivals at Coors in late May/early June. Castro is certainly the better pitcher at this point in time, but Motte does have the proven closer(TM) tag, so both could be options if McGee doesn’t magically find his stuff at altitude.

• Not going to spend too much time harping on the Reds, but Tony Cingrani (who had gotten the team’s last two saves) was used with a lead in the 8th inning today (implying Ross Ohlendorf is the de facto closer). Of course, Cingrani blew the save by giving up a homer to Josh Harrison. Not to be outdone, Ohlendorf took the loss by allowing a run (albeit unearned) in the ninth. I’ll flip the grid back to Ohlendorf for now, but it’s pretty much a deep burgundy dumpster fire right now. Maybe we should get #FreeJumboDiaz (46% in AAA, almost a negative FIP) trending. PS: those in my 16-team NL-only and 24-team leagues, I’ve already scooped up Diaz, so don’t bother hawking the wire.

• On the blown save front, Luke Gregerson’s issues led to a 16 inning game in Houston. His rates are fine and Ken Giles has been bitten by the bad luck bug, so no changes brewing here. Likewise, Santiago Casilla took a BS. Traditionally, I haven’t been a Casilla fan, but with Sergio Romo on the shelf and Hunter Strickland not quite being as lights out as usual, Casilla has the best rates in this bullpen and has a firm grasp on the stopper role. Romo’s replacement, Derek Law, has looked pretty good so far and is worth a snag in holds leagues (24% K%, 2.62 xFIP).

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]