Bullpen Report: June 6, 2016
• As Paul mentioned last night, there might be a shakeup in Houston but Hinch won’t name a closer besides saying Gregerson will be getting a break. Will Harris received the save last night with Ken Giles having a day off. Whether or not Giles would have received the call, we don’t know. Michael Feliz might also be considered but he threw in the sixth and seventh innings tonight, losing the lead in the seventh after a couple of base hits and a sacrifice fly. Although Feliz might be pitching the best of anyone in Houston, he’s been mostly used as a multiple inning reliever. Luke Gregerson entered the game in a 5-5 game in the eighth inning, suggesting he’s not necessarily the closer but still hasn’t vanished from high leverage innings. Striking out two batters in perfect inning with only eight pitches will help regain the closer chair as well. Ken Giles was called on for the ninth in a tie game and I’ve put him ahead of Harris on the grid below.
Update: I was a little quick to the draw as Giles blew the lead in Houston after publishing. I think the Astros could be somewhat inclined to give Giles a chance at the ninth but failing tonight certainly puts Harris ahead of him. I wouldn’t drop Gregerson but Harris should get the next opportunity.
• Andrew Miller threw a perfect eighth and Aroldis Chapman a perfect ninth with Miller receiving his third win and Chapman his tenth save on the year. But for how much longer will they be pitching in New York? The Yankees don’t intend to move them in the near future, which is somewhat common around the draft, but if they’re still far back come July the trade winds will start blowing. Aroldis Chapman will close on any team he’s moved to and Andrew Miller can only increase his value in a trade moving to closer. So, owners of the fireballing lefties need not worry as their stock can only grow if a trade were to happen. We’ll be sure to update rumors regarding the Yankees bullpen and any other relievers as we get closer to the trading deadline.
• Kevin Jepsen stunk up the joint again last night and now has a seasonal line of 6.26/5.60/5.11. Minnesota, your closer, woof! Trevor May looked like the obvious replacement amidst Jepsen’s constant struggles but his rough patch in mid-May put that to bed. However, he’s been better in his last five appearances (four innings pitched, eight strikeouts, one walk, no hits and one earned run) and his 3.24 xFIP is more indicative of how he’s pitched over the season than his 5.13 ERA. Fernando Abad has been great as a Twin this year from the left side and could see some late inning action as well if the Twins were to make a move along with Brandon Kintzler. Meanwhile, Glen Perkins is throwing bullpen sessions but still seems a couple weeks away from returning to Minnesota. Jepsen might lose his job but the moment Perkins returns it’s likely his again. However, it’s important to remember the lessons from Brad Boxberger who came back only to return to the DL immediately later. It’s good to see Perkins make progress, but nothing is certain especially given his recent history.
• Raisel Iglesias is currently on the DL with a shoulder injury but once he returns, he’ll be moving to the pen. I don’t think it’s a stretch that once he returns, assuming good health, that he’ll immediately become the best reliever in Cincinnati. However, the main concern for the Reds is getting Iglesias back on track and healthy so even if he’s effective out of the gate they may not put him as the closer where pitching on consecutive days can be a common occurrence. I’d expect Iglesias to be eased in upon his return but after a few weeks he could start breathing down whichever committee chairmen is closing at that moment in Cinci.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
I’m not sure I understand your logic with giles/harris. Giles pitched the bottom of the ninth in a tie game on the road. Wouldn’t teams typically save their closer for a save opportunity in that situation?
Not necessarily, closers these days tend to get used in late tied games. Dyson was used tonight by TEX while it was 5-5 and got the win. Though with Giles blowing the game and Gregerson pitching a nice inning, I’d probably put Harris/Gregerson temporarily ahead of Giles. Just how I see things though.
That makes no sense. Dyson was used because his team was at home, thus once they reached the 9th inning he would no longer be able to possibly get a save. Road teams save their closers for a save situation unless they’ve exhausted all other options.
Literally every sign points to Harris closing. He got the save last night and he was being preserved for a save situation tonight. How he can be third on the list makes absolutely no sense to me. I understand that there is some uncertainty, but the only certainty is that Gregerson is out of the role, yet he is still listed 1st.
Side note – why would the Texas situation still be yellow?
Agreed on the Dyson point. I might venture that he is more stable than say Rosenthal (nearly 1BB per inning). While Rosenthal has more leash thanks to his track record he is trying one gnarly noose with that walk rate.
Giles was called on for the ninth in a tie game, but he also lost the game, allowing the Rangers to walk off. The linked article about the Astros suggests that Hinch wants to try out a few different guys in the closer role. So far, Gregerson has blown saves on the 4th and the 1st, Giles lost a game tonight, Harris got a save yesterday, and Feliz hasn’t gotten a shot at closer yet. To me, at least, that indicates that Harris leads the committee at the moment.
Harris also pitched the past two days, so it had been implied that he might be unavailable tonight regardless. Giles had an opportunity in an important situation and blew it tonight. If anything, I think it just gives Harris more of a lead.
No idea how you can reach the conclusion you do on the Houston pen.
I’d appreciate it if you’d refer to him as “Colonel” or “Sir”. I believe he’s earned it.
Someone in my league dropped Gregerson and I have the #2 pick. The team with the #1 pick has punted saves, so I’m going to snap him up! SNAP! SNAP! Get back on the whores, Luke!!!
Looks like the conclusion on the Houston bullpen was reached before Giles lost the game. Even taking that into consideration, keeping Gregerson at closer is debatable.
The guy just needs a breather…time to clear out the cobwebs. Similar to his detractors on this comment thread…
Agreed with many of the commenters here that Harris is in the lead but to me the pecking order is:
Harris
Gregerson
Giles
Feliz
For clarity let’s start at the bottom of the 8th. At this point, Hinch does not know if his team will score in top of the 9th so he could only need two more relievers. He brings in Gregerson indicating he only values 1 pitcher more (Harris, as we will see in a second). Once the top of the 9th rolls around, since nobody has scored, exact same scenario comes up. Now he uses Giles. Gregerson has been used previously so it’s presumably between Giles and Harris. If he wants to keep his best reliever for the save in the bottom of an inning with the lead (i.e. Not use a reliever for 2IP), Hinch will save his best reliever for that situation. By using Giles he suggests that he values Harris most.
This of course assumes that all pitchers were available and he planned to use each for only 1 IP but if you follow the logic above all of the information is in the usage of tonight’s game.
I haven’t addresses Feliz but Hinch pretty clearly sees him as his “long ace” (think Adam Warren for CHC). Managers love to keep a performing guy in that multi inning slot for the clean up in the early innings of games they are still trying to win. A common trend in more analytically leaning teams. Not a traditional long man they way mop up guys used to be used (I.e. 6th starter) but still a long way from saves in my opinion.
One additional note, Giles got what should have been a double play grounder from Beltre but he beat it out on a Correa bobble and Rasmus’ D in left field was questionable on the rocket Odor hit to win the game. not sure managers think that way but one could argue Giles got a bit unlucky to lose the game.
Is it too early to drop Gregerson? Specifically, I’m quite interested in Danny Duffy and my team is pitching-starved.
Possibly the saddest fantasy baseball words ever written: “…I’m quite interested in Danny Duffy and my team is pitching-starved.”
Depends on how cutthroat saves are in your league, probably
Joe Smith to the DL. I assume Salas immediately steps into that set-up role, the same one he had when Street was down.
What do you think of Ottavino in Colorado? No mention of him on the DL/Minors list. Think there’s any chance he’ll take over once he’s back?