Bullpen Report: June 4, 2014
• As I write this, another rough outing for Trevor Rosenthal. He’ll technically take a BS in the box score, but he wasn’t given a clean ninth inning to worth with as Mike Matheny tried to stretch Adam Wainwright’s potential shutout all the way through. Rosenthal gave up a hit and a walk, which, combined with a fielder’s choice, allowed both inherited runners to cross the plate. This makes back-to-back hiccup-type outings for the righty, but I remain relatively unconcerned given his velocity (96 mph, 0.5 mph off last year), swinging strike rate (14%, near career norms), and 51% Zone% (which implies his 12.7% BB% in 2014 is probably due to drop a bit).
The guy that most own as a potential Rosenthal handcuff has scuffled a bit, too. Carlos Martinez owns a 19% K%, which is a far cry from some of the lofty expectations owners had after watching his wiffle-ball slider during St. Louis’ playoff run in 2013. Martinez’s 12% SwStr% is above average, and implies more punchouts are to be had but his 44% Zone% tells us he may be better served challenging hitters a bit. His velocity is right where it was last year and he continues to induce groundballs at a decent (53%) rate. It would be nice to see the 19% line drive rate come down a touch, but I’m still a buyer in both redraft leagues where I need holds/rates and keeper leagues.
• Sergio Romo tossed a 1-2-3 inning today to polish off the Reds. He now has a whopping 18 saves on the season which is obviously a big reward for his owners. However, some red flags do exist in the peripherals. For the fourth consecutive year, Romo’s strikeout rate is down and walk rate is up. Gone are the good ol’ days of the 37% K%-BB% (2011) and here are the days where his xFIP is an “eh” 3.86. His fastball velocity and swinging strike rate aren’t too far off where they generally have been so it’s tough to pinpoint exactly what’s up. Of note is that the percentage of his pitches swung at which are out of the strike zone is down 10% this season so it’s possible hitters are just being more selective with Romo. This may mean working more walks and putting more balls in play. Regardless, while I do think there is some marginal room for improvement from his current marks, it is not a terrible idea to sell “EIGHTEEN SAVES!” and see if you can get an owner to bite.
• Quick hits: Sean Doolittle with another save. An outing without a strikeout may qualify as a disappointment for him these days, underscoring how good he’s been so far this year. Glen Perkins picked up save number 16 today and lowered his already-awesome 1.89 SIERA in the process. Ride the wave. Old Bullpen Report fave Alfredo Aceves has been DFA’ed by the Yankees. I miss the days when Bobby Valentine was convinced he could close. Well, not really.
• Waiting for the light to change: Zach Britton was able to work around a couple hits to pick up another save in Baltimore tonight. I’m still not 100% convinced he holds the job for the remainder of the year, but he gets the green light for now. My personal 2014 dark horse man-crush Hector Rondon tossed an impressive ninth, blowing away David Wright and saving Edwin Jackson’s win versus the Mets tonight. Hopefully you were like me and snagged him across the board in April. Time to upgrade his color, too.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
There are few things Colin loves more in life than a pitcher with a single-digit BB%. Find him on Twitter @soxczar.
Ogando DL’d today
Good catch. Will be updated in tomorrow’s grid.
Can’t see Brothers as second chair after tonight’s performance. Woof.
So how did neither Joba and Nathan pitch, the tigers lost (so no save of any kind), and yet the closer situation went from Red to Yellow?
Brad Ausmus confirmed Joe Nathan as his closer going forward today during a PC. His leash is much shorter, but it sounds like he’ll get a few more save chances to curtail the bleeding.
Nathan was pissed off in his interview with the press. He’s still throwing pretty good despite the results. Some definite bad luck going on.
His velocity is down, so his strikeouts are down by 1/3 while his walks are up by almost 50%. His FIP is 5.20, so, ok, he’ll look better with some regression to the mean, but he’ll still look pretty bad.
He’s getting strikes called for balls too. The defense behind him has been lousy to be nice. I think cutting the walks is something that can certainly be done, but yeah, he definitely doesn’t appear to be anything like he was last year.
Joba has the same defense and I can’t imagine the calls are that much better than what Nathan gets. Arguments defending Nathan have been pretty weak and reasons to doubt him are growing. Thinking Nathan’s run as an elite closer are over… I’m investing in Joba, especially for next year.
Belisario closes out the Dodgers with a perfect inning for the second night in a row. 5 groundouts to 2B and 1 K, I think its safe to change the CWS to at least yellow, maybe even green.
Because of a couple good days? The last 2 games were good, but 4 out of the 5 that came before that were very, very not!
good analyses EXCEPT, you are not catching that jenry mejia has been quite terrific. there is 0 reason to believe he won’t be going forward. who is better…familia? not. vic black is a nice set-up guy, but jenry is the man –and i see no reason, based on his performance thus far, to think he won’t continue to close. you should recognize this.
Gettin your panties in a bunch over Mejia seems like a waste of time. Do you not watch Mets games on weekends? He wasn’t good! The defense wasn’t great either, but he showed nothing to get excited about. The save on Sunday after giving up a bomb doesn’t count as a good thing!
I’m actually starting to become a little interested in Josh Fields, at least more than anyone other than Qualls in that pen. He has a more traditional closer makeup. Do you think he’ll work his way onto your (or Houston’s) depth chart? Is he worth an insurance add in a deep league where saves are like bacon?
Seems like Shae Simmons may have moved ahead of Luis Avilan in the Braves pecking order now.
Walden is back in like a week. Is it worth worrying about third string?
You can take Tampa off the grid entirely, they probably won’t win any more games this season.
Cody Allen is available in my league. Has Allen shown enough to justify picking him up and dropping LaTroy Hawkins?
Yes.
I think Dice-K should be moved off of the Mets chart seeing he’s back in the starting rotation and will be likely until Dillon Gee returns. Carlos Torres or Vic Black would make sense as his replacement on the chart.
Why is the Mets group still in yellow? Seems pretty clear that Mejia is the Closer at this point.
Any concern about Mejia’s last couple outings? Seems his control has been off. Still liking Mejia over Britton?
I’m definitely worried about Trevor Rosenthal! Can you make anything of the fact that Rosenthal has gone from a 11.88 K/9 against lefties to a 9.00, and from a 1.89 BB/9 to 5.79?? The ratio is the starkest way to see the jump: 6.29 K/BB to 1.56 against lefties. I’d be interested to see his plate discipline numbers against righties vs lefties, but I’m not sure where to find that info.