Bullpen Report: June 25, 2014
• Sometimes, I feel all I do is write about Mike Scioscia and his managerial whims. See, there’s a reason I don’t cede to admonishment for being “too low” on Ernesto Frieri in our consensus ranks. Late last night, the Angels manager said that Joe Smith is in, Frieri is out. For now. Smith has the much better ERA but only slightly better peripherals. Frieri has been toasted by the homer this season, with over 20% of his fly balls leaving the yard. Interestingly, the hard-throwing righty’s problem has traditionally been the walks but he’s (so far) shaved his BB% in half. For those who may point to Smith’s 2.19 SIERA and wonder, “why isn’t he just the guy?”, his low arm slot keeps him effective against right-handers, but causes him to get ripped by lefties to the tune of a .323 wOBA against. Not matchup-independent material. Of course, we said the same thing about Steve Cishek, and he seems to have figured out how to get everyone out. So what do we know? Smith is the guy to own right now, but that will almost certainly change before the season is out. Keep Frieri rostered in all leagues of sufficient depth, although feel free to bench him if you want to protect your rates.
• Speaking of Cishek, he notched save number 18 in 2014, striking out the side in the process. For all the “success” you could argue I’ve had underranking Frieri the last couple years, I may have that skill offset by my general “eh” regarding Cishek’s numbers. While the sidearming righty has traditionally had serious platoon split problems, making him susceptible to lefty pinch hitters, he has alleviated many of those concerns this season. If anything, Cishek’s .220 wOBA versus LHB shows he’s been death to opposite handers this season, thanks in large part to a changeup that he only throws to left-handed hitters. The pitch may only get whiffs 12% of the time he throws it, but with opposite horizontal run to the similarly-fast slider and a large velocity delta between his bread-and-butter sinker, it is clearly an effective weapon in keeping hitters off balance. With each outing, Cishek climbs the ladder towards to top tier of major league closers.
• Kenley Jansen had gotten the call four of the last five days so Don Mattingly needed a fill-in tonight and Brian Wilson was tabbed to “come on down!” The bearded righty danced around a ninth inning hit to rack up his first save of the season, protecting a 5-4 lead against Kansas City. The bad news? Even after today, Wilson’s xFIP is an ugly 4.61. The good news? He’s gotten better each month, with his 3.82 (xFIP) June mark set to further improve after tonight’s outing. A large portion of his gains have been a result of cutting down on the walks which have fallen from 17% to 16% to 9% as the calendar pages have fallen away. A 9% BB% still needs some work, but at least he’s moved out of Carlos Marmol territory. It looks like he’s the guy to own if you need a Jansen handcuff, but only injury will knock Jansen off of his ninth inning pedestal.
• Quick hits: Aroldis Chapman, David Robertson, and Sean Doolittle all looked good picking up saves today. Ho hum. Jason Grilli appeared in his first non-save situation since being removed from the ninth inning in Pittsburgh and didn’t acquit himself well, allowing a pair of runs on four hits. He did punch out two batters (1.000 BABIP is never cool) but Mark Melancon has some job security of the time being. Tim Collins was demoted to Triple-A today. A precipitous fall for the diminutive lefty who has seen his K% and BB% both go the wrong direction for three years in a row.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
There are few things Colin loves more in life than a pitcher with a single-digit BB%. Find him on Twitter @soxczar.
Nathan gave up two hits and an ER today. Any thoughts on how this affects the Detroit pen?
One of the hits was a kind of a floater than landed fair down the line. Willing to give Nathan a pass; only gave up one hard-hit ball and had one K (no walks).
Yeah, but he sucks and Chamberlain is better.
That’s never stopped managers from keeping PROVEN CLOSERS(TM) in the ninth before.
Doesn’t it seem like Nathan holds the job until the Tigers trade for either Street or Benoit? That they’d rather leave Joba in the setup position.
I think they’ll wait and see how Hanrahan pans out before trying to trade for someone.
Who do you like more the ROS, Melancon, Britton or Cody Allen.
Gut tells me Allen, but just because I think he’s the best bet to keep the job and has the punchouts that Britton doesn’t have.
It’s not a big deal, but I don’t think that was Grilli’s first appearance since being demoted. He threw on 6/20 (the day he was demoted) and gave up 0 ER with a hit and a walk.
Cishek’s platoon splits have always been overblown.
For his career, lefties have hit .229/.319/.341 off of him. His K-rate has always actually been better against lefties than against righties.
Cishek basically had one year that he struggled against lefties. It was probably a product of small sample size and a .411 .BABIP.
The fact that he’s having an elite year shouldn’t be surprising.
Perhaps a *bit* overblown, but he’s had ~0.50 xFIP L/R split in 2012-2013 and a 1.00 xFIP L/R split in 2011 (xFIP is essentially BABIP-independent).
This has (so far) been the first year he’s really shown that he can get lefties out on a (very) frequent basis. It’s probably no surprise it’s his first year in the last four where he hasn’t had nearly 2x the BB% against lefties, too.
Wasn’t Guerra up in the pen in the event Belisario didn’t make it out of the inning the other night? No mention of him on the report?
Have to drop on Rondon or Balisario? Please help
I would drop Bellisario. Rondon is the better pitcher right now, both carry considerable risk of losing their jobs right now, but Rondon has shown he can string together some nice outings and easily reclaim some of that job security.
Bellisario probably isnt as bad as he has been since taking over the closers role, but he has been killing ratio’s for his owners in the name of saves and doesnt have the K potential Rondon has.