Bullpen Report: June 10, 2015
Just two days ago, the Bullpen Report team alongside colleague Paul Sporer ranked Andrew Miller the top relief pitcher in our May/June update. We’re doubtful the news is a curse of the Bullpen Report, but Andrew Miller landed on the disabled list today with a strained forearm muscle. An MRI on Wednesday did in fact reveal a strain in the flexor mass, a muscle in his left forearm. When discussing Miller’s injury with the media, skipper Joe Girardi mentioned that fatigue could be an issue with the left-hander appearing in 26 of the Yankees’ 59 games, so upon his return from the disabled list, maybe we’ll see more of a balance between Betances and Miller in save situations. Or, we could just be falling into the manager’s trap and Miller will get all the chances when healthy, but I’m guessing the former. In said 26 trips ot the bump, Andrew Miller is 0-1, a perfect 17-for-17 in save chances, a 1.03 ERA (1.93 FIP) and a 32% K-BB%. Get well, Andrew.
With Miller on the shelf, the aforementioned Dellin Betances will assume his former ninth-inning role for the Yanks. He’s been elite this year as well. In 29 appearances, the right-hander is 4-0 with two saves in three chances, owns a 0.28 ERA (1.06 FIP) and boasts an impressive and slightly better K-BB% than Andrew Miller, 32.8%. Even without the saves Betances should have been owned just about everywhere — except NL-Only formats obviously — but if by some random chance he’s still available, you’re leaving this page and adding him immediately.
The Jonathan Papelbon trade talks have apparently heated up, according to our friend Ken Rosenthal. Rosenthal reports that over the past week the Phillies have been actively engaged in trade talks with both the Toronto Blue Jays and the Chicago Cubs. But the recent signing of Rafael Soriano either suggest that the Cubbies are balking at the Phillies price for Papelbon — despite the fact that Philly is willing to eat a decent chunk of the veteran’s contract — or, they’re giving themselves a little insurance so they don’t get left twiddling their thumbs at the trade-deadline altar. For fantasy purposes, one may assume that he’ll carry more value in Chicago, especially since the Blue Jays only own six saves on the year as a team and haven’t had an opportunity since May 4th. But according to Kenny’s notes, the Phils may prefer to send Papelbon to the American League, if he’s willing to waive his no-trade clause to do so.
If-and-when Jonathan Papelbon is moved, the name that immediately comes to mind for save chances in Philly is Ken Giles. He was a hot topic in the preseason during fantasy drafts, struggled just a bit to start the season, but is 2-1 with nine holds, a 2.16 ERA (2.87 FIP) but just a 13.7% K-BB%. Giles’ K-BB% is down about 18 points from last season’s efforts. Additionally, his velocity is down a couple of ticks on each of his offerings. Although down from his ‘14 numbers, Giles is still inducing more swinging strikes (13.5%) than the league average for relievers (10.9%), so we still have him next-in-line for saves in the CIty of Brotherly Love.
Quick hitters: Drew Storen notched his 19th save of the year today in extra-innings for the Nationals in the Bronx. The right-hander needed just ten pitches to retire the Yankees in order, inducing two strikeouts and a groundout. Washington’s closer is now 19-of-20 in save chances this season with a 1.11 ERA (1.09 FIP), rightfully earning his top-ten slot in our most recent reliever rankings. In fact, maybe I should’ve slotted him a spot higher. Aroldis Chapman earned his 12th save of the year, fanning one on 12 pitches at home against the Phillies.
Trevor Rosenthal needed 19 pitches to close out the Rockies at Coors, but fanned two and induced a groundout to pick up his 20th save for the Cardinals. Darren O’Day fanned the Red Sox side of the final frame Boston — but, needed 26 pitches and two-innings to do so — to pick up his second save of the year in three opportunities. Jim Johnson dished a clean ninth for his third save of the season. And for all of you invested in the Rays’ bullpen, Jake McGee notched his first handshake of the ‘15 season on 13 pitches.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
In addition to contributing to the RotoGraphs blog, you can find Alan at his own site, TheFantasyFix.com and follow his nonsense on Twitter @TheFantasyFix.
Papelbon traded to the Jay’s would be a nice kick in the crotch for those Cecil owners waiting out this historic lack of save opportunities.
More unpredictable bullpen usage coming from Tampa. Jepsen pitches the 7th, Boxberger the 8th and McGee gets his first save opportunity in the 9th…
There is seemingly no hierarchy in the Rays bullpen, and I’ve given up on trying to make sense of it.
It was a case of matchups. Trout and Pujols were first up in the 8th, thus Boxberger. Joyce and Kubitza, both lefty hitters, were likely hitters in the 9th. Earlier, Jepsen looked bad in walking Giovatella with two outs and a man on first in the 7th. Aybar’s hard grounder to second got him out of that.
If it was matchups, the logical usage would have been using McGee in the 7th, as the order went Joyce (L), Cron (R), Kubitza (L).
Then your choice of Jepsen or Boxberger in the 8th, as the order up was Trout (R), Pujols (R), Calhoun (L).
Then the other one in the 9th, as due up were Perez (R), Joyce (L), and Cron (R).
Instead, Cash inserted his righty to face Joyce, who sports one of the most extreme platoon splits, when the lefty, McGee, would have been more effective.
So I own Boxberger in three separate, standard scoring leagues. Should I hold on and see how this plays out, or is it time to consider jumping off the ship? The options on the wire arent great, but in one of my leagues I could pick up Brad Ziegler, make a speculative pick up of Pedro Strop or add Jake McGee or Carson Smith. In another league I own Boxberger in, someone just dropped Brett Cecil (likely due to the lack of save chances).
Are any of these names worth pulling the plug on Boxberger for? I’m becoming worried that Boxberger no longer has the job full time and Kevin Cash is truly moving to the dreaded (for fantasy owners) committee.
I have holds in one of my leagues, so I’m holding onto him for now. IT depends how worried you are about losing Box, I think holding on a little longer and seeing what transpires is a good idea.
Yeah, that’s what I am sorta leaning towards. I dont have holds so Boxberger and non-dominant set up men like Davis or Betances are somewhat useless, so I might just and see if Strop or Smith get more backing from their managers and then try and pull the trigger.
Is Boxberger still ahead of Cecil for you? In one of the leagues I own Boxberger, Smith and Strop were both picked up so the only viable closing option is Cecil (even if he isnt getting Save chances since the calendar turned to May).
I own McGee, Boxberger, and Carson Smith, but only have 2 slots available for those three. My gut says Smith should be benched. Who should I leave out of my RP slots, and should I try to trade that guy and see what I can get?
I’d bench Box, to be honest, but follow your gut. Guts are usually right!
My gut doesn’t feel all too well so I’ll listen you and bench Box since Smith is the only one who’s role as the closer has been clearly defined.
How weird – a different Norm responded. This is not the real Norm. I would know to use the proper ‘whose’.
lol @ grammar police. Advice is still good though so go ahead and stick with Box if you want to go with your gut. By the way, he was used in the 7th inning today.
Sure seems like Tolleson has a handle on Texas’ closer job
Since May 5th, the Blue Jays have 18 wins and zero save opportunities.
Worth Noting that Boxberger may have pitched the 8th, but it was against Trout / Pujols. I’d view this as a sign that he’s still the top option in Tampa, but you may lose a couple save chances here and there if a similar situation arises
That’s not exactly good news because that means they have decided Boxberger’s new role is to come in at any point against the most dangerous hitters in the lineup since he is the “top option”.
This is why I play in a S+H league- works out either way. I like that it gives value in fantasy to a whole crop of players who are usually ignored. Also lets me focus on real needs in the draft instead of overvaluing closers, and I don’t have to hawk the wire all season for the new guy
I have Rondon, Strop, and Cecil. Are any worth dropping for McGee? Who should be dropped?
Hard to drop Rondon or Strop until the Cubs bullpen shakes out. Cecil has the job in Toronto, even if the chances havent been available to him. I think you have to hold tight until the Chicago situation becomes clearer. My guess is the Tampa bullpen is going to be changing throughout the season with Jepsen, McGee and Boxberger all getting Saves and Save chances depending on the situation.
Thanks, Mike. Your advice is appreciated.
I’m not sure you can judge much of anything from Boxberger’s role in a single game upon returning from a week out due to an injury. I expect him to get most of the saves in TB going forward, which should put him substantially ahead of Cecil or the like.
Bryan Morris on the DL in MIA.
Regarding McGee and Boxberger. You also have to remember there is a new manager in Tampa Bay. So despite McGee having a great 2014. That does not mean Cash is married to him like Maddon would be as “their” guy in the 9th.
Considering the way they were used yesterday and today, seems like Cash has chosen McGee as the closer finally, after easing him in after returning from the DL. Maybe this was just the plan all along.