Bullpen Report: July 10, 2014
• Did Jonathan Papelbon punch his ticket out of Philadelphia yesterday? After polishing off a Roberto Hernandez gem last night, the Philly closer addressed any potential trades involving him by saying “Some guys want to stay on a losing team? That’s mind-boggling to me. I think that’s a no-brainer.” Ouch. The team (and fantasy owners) would be wise to sell high if possible. While the 33-year-old owns a 1.24 ERA, his BABIP stands at a paltry .229, implying regression is likely around the corner. There’s also no guarantee that he remains in the closer role with a new team (although we have to admit, his “proven closer(TM)” track record helps). Manager Ryne Sandberg has previously said that Ken Giles and Jake Diekman would be the likely ninth-inning beneficiaries of Papelbon being unavailable (either through usage or, conceivably, trade) so both should be scooped up in all deeper leagues. The 23-year-old Giles and his 38% K% is the more intriguing pickup. Diekman has pitched much better than his 4.32 ERA would indicate, so he remains an option, but has some degree of platoon splits which could hurt him against good righty batters.
• After picking up a vulture win yesterday, Koji Uehara was not automatic in trying to finish off a Jon Lester start today. The Japanese righty was tagged with a 2-run homer that wrapped around Pesky’s Pole in right field on his way to blown save number two on the season. Uehara’s six homers allowed in 2014 are now already one more than he allowed all of last season (in 30+ more innings), a key reason why his FIP (not HR/FB independent) is 2.70 (compared to 1.61 last season). In addition to his HR/FB% being up, his actual number of liners plus fly balls (LD%+FB%) allowed is also up 6% in 2014, giving him the double whammy of more balls in the air, and more balls leaving the park. His per pitch numbers still look good (SwStr% is actually up), so there is no reason to panic and sell him off for Joe Nathan, but be aware we probably won’t see Koji circa 2013 ever again.
• Aroldis Chapman worked a scoreless inning in an extra inning game this afternoon, striking out a pair. Of note is that he’s thrown three days in a row and likely will be unavailable on Friday. His primary setup man, Jonathan Broxton also tossed today (giving up an earned run) and would likely get any save opportunity should one arise tomorrow. His ERA may be a sparkling 0.87 but don’t be fooled. Broxton remains the owner of a 4.37 xFIP and his 20/11 K/BB in 31 innings does not inspire tremendous confidence. Stream him in daily leagues if you need saves (or a cheap reliever) but Chapman owners can do better than merely handcuffing Broxton.
• Quick hits: Zach Britton notched another save today. I still find it hard to believe he can keep up a near 80% GB% but he keeps on doing the job in Baltimore. No save for the Cubbies today even though they won 6-4 on the road. Hector Rondon, Neil Ramirez, and Pedro Strop were all used in the extra inning affair, so Blake Parker pitched the last two innings to pick up the “W” and an invisible “SV” for himself. For what it’s worth, Rondon has gotten unlucky as his .352 BABIP and sub-3.00 xFIP/SIERA both indicate, but doesn’t have a ridiculously strong grasp on the ninth inning. Keep Ramirez (and maybe Strop) rostered if you are in deeper leagues where top tier setup men are gone.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
There are few things Colin loves more in life than a pitcher with a single-digit BB%. Find him on Twitter @soxczar.
With McGee reportedly unavailable on Friday and Saturday for paternity leave, we may get a better idea of who is the 1b option to go with McGee’s 1a. Balfour could be the right answer, but Boxberger has been doing everything right lately and wouldn’t surprise me.
Forgot to post even though I tweeted about it. Always annoying.
I agree Boxberger has a shot and touched on this yesterday after Peralta/Yates conspired to lose a game. He’s off the grid right now just because we don’t have enough slots, but he could appear in a hurry.
Joe Smith is green.
Jake’s wife saved his arm. Showalter had promised not to use him last night because of overuse, then threw him in there anyway. His velocity was off 2-3 mph and he was hittable.
He needs a few days off and now he’s got it.
Britons. Velo spike explains his success
That’s the case with most guys who go from starting to relieving. The article was pointing out that some if his peripherals don’t seem sustainable.
Worth it to drop Romo for Putnam?
I dont think I would unless I was incredibly desperate for saves. I still think Romo has a decent shot at regaining the closing job in San Fran if he can put together a week or two of good outings. Putnam just isnt a very exciting pitcher and his job, even if he can get the gig, may only last a month or so considering Nate Jones and Matt Lindstrom are both rehabbing.
When does Casilla move into the yellow?
While technically there’s no guarantee that Papelbon would be used as closer if he is traded … he will be used as closer by his new team if traded. Cmon, teams don’t trade for big-money closers with 1.20 ERAs to make them setup guys.
Depends where he goes…what if the Dodgers take him on? I dont think they would demote Kenley and they have the payroll space to take Papelbon’s salary. Likewise outside of Detroit and Baltimore most of the teams that may be looking to reinforce the back end of their bullpen have pretty established closers. He would likely displace Nathan and while Britton has been very good since taking over as the closer, he doesnt have the track record that Papelbon has and Buck might take that into consideration.
Good point, but I highly doubt the Dodgers would go get Pap. They have a deep pen. I’d figure he goes somewhere with closer problems and a good shot at making the playoffs like Detroit, STL, or San Fran, who all have issues in the 9th.
Pap would likely close all of those places outside of St. Louis. I think they are committed to Rosenthal and unless the Phillies give him to them for free they will be hunting offense and a SP.
Pat Neshek has given up all of 2 hits and 0 walks in one full month. It’s an extraordinary run. He’s earned his spot on the N.L. All-Star team yet remains completely under the radar.