Bullpen Report: August 31, 2016

• It’s always fun when non-blockbuster trades are important for the fantasy landscape. In this case, the Angels ‘de facto’ closer, Fernando Salas, was moved to the Mets this evening. Salas now shifts into a setup role and whatever “SV” value he had vanishes. His 4.47/4.50 ERA/xFIP imply that he won’t be of much use in the ratios department, so feel free to drop him if you were using him to scab saves.

Perhaps of more interest is who gets to take over the ninth in Anaheim with Cam Bedrosian and Huston Street still on the shelf. Normally I’d say “who cares?” but the southernmost team in L.A. has actually won 10 of 15 and doesn’t have the world’s strongest schedule remaining. J.C. Ramirez, Mike Morin, and Deolis Guerra have all been suggested as options. Ramirez is probably the weakest of the bunch — he has a live arm (96 mph fastball) but middling peripherals (4.55 FIP). With a 22% K%, Morin has the best strikeout rate of the group, but a 60% LOB% has caused his ERA to disconnect from FIP in a negative fashion (4.79 versus a more palatable 3.29). Guerra might be the most logical choice as he combines decent peripherals (thanks in large part to a minuscule walk rate) and results (2.72 ERA). However, Morin’s inLI is still higher than Guerra’s, implying he has been used in higher leverage situations over the last month. I’ll give the slight edge to Guerra, but this truly is a burgundy bullpen until we see more (although I’d definitely prioritize Guerra and Morin over Ramirez and Jose Alvarez on the waiver wire).

• Adam Ottavino did not have a good outing tonight, giving up 5 earned runs in the 9th inning to turn a three-run lead into a two-run deficit. While the mini-implosion means I can’t turn him green, he still has a 2.89 FIP since returning from Tommy John and his fastball velocity seems fine. He might be a nice buy low in keeper/dynasty formats as he seems likely to open next season as Colorado’s closer.

• Someone who also didn’t have a great day was Brandon Maurer. Obnoxiously for fantasy owners, he gave up a pair of runs in a non-save situation — against the Braves no less. Maurer was one of the guys who I thought really could take a step forward this year. And he sort of has, bumping a K% to 25% that is more in line with his double-digit swinging strike rate. Unfortunately, that has come with an increase in BB% and a cratering of his GB%, which has caused the DIPS metrics to go the other direction. There’s still value here, but I’m slightly less optimistic in long-term formats that I was to open the season.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]