Bullpen Report: August 3, 2017
• Pitching in the top of the ninth inning in a tie game, Wade Davis allowed homers to Paul Goldschmidt and J.D. Martinez and ended up taking his first loss for the Cubs. It’s tough to blame any pitcher for allowing long balls to those two (Goldy had two more in the game) but he’s been a little off of late, for him. Davis hasn’t been blowing games but since July, he has thrown eight innings with four earned runs and a 9/7 K/BB. After tonight’s game, Davis has a 9.1% HR/FB which is below average but he’s always been pretty terrific at home run suppression. He’s missing bats as well which is a good sign but his 11.6% BB% would represent a career high. I’m certainly picking nits here as Davis still qualifies as a fantastic option for saves but if I was making a deadline move I would be slightly weary to pay top dollar for Davis over others in his tier.
Of more concern however might be Carl Edwards Jr. who walked the only batters he faced in the eighth. Those guys happened to be Goldschmidt and Martinez, so again, it’s tough to blame the pitcher here but control has been an issue of his of late. After tonight’s outing, Edwards still supports a fantastic 13.19 K/9 but it’s paired with a 5.86 BB/9 which is a little troublesome. If Edwards can’t find the strike zone and keeps allowing free passes at that rate, an untimely homer or two could do some damage to your ratios and with Justin Wilson in Chicago, he’s likely not the guy to own if something were to happen to Davis.
• We have heard the Hildenberger calls and I have added him to the grid in Minnesota. Their situation is so red that really anyone could claim it if they put up some consistent zeros but Trevor Hildenberger might have the most talent in the group so he’s worth keeping an eye on. He’s only thrown 17.1 innings across 10 games in his major league career but he’s missing a lot of bats without many walks (19/3 K/BB) which is something he’s done throughout his time in the mionrs. Eric Longenhagen ranked him as the 18th best prospect in the Twins system and in 30.2 innings in AAA this year Hildenberger had a 2.05 ERA and a 27.8% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk percentage.
In spite of all that, he’s not the closer which could now be Matt Belisle. Ervin Santana finished what he started yesterday but Belisle was warming up in the ninth, indicating he’s first in line for the next opportunity that arises. Taylor Rogers, Hildenberger and Tyler Duffey could all be considered in the late innings as well but consider Belisle in the lead, for now.
• I’m sorry for doubting you, Fernando Rodney! Rodney saved his 25th game tonight and since his rough April he’s pitched to a 1.82/2.12/3.65 ERA/FIP/xFIP line closing 17/20 saves. The 40 year old is not as good as that line might suggest and he isn’t the most talented guy in the pen but he’s closing games on a solid team and should continue to rack up decent saves moving forward.
• Corey Knebel allowed two baserunners but also struck out a pair for his 20th save. Knebel’s 42.4% stirkeout rate is second only behind Craig Kimbrel and although he doesn’t have pinpoint control his 28.1% K-BB% ranks 11th in the league. Whatever your preferred measurement, Knebel likely ranks among the best in the league.
• Matt Bush entered the game in the eighth with a 4-1 lead a threw a scoreless frame with two strikeouts and could be moving his way back in the to the saves situation. Keone Kela, Jose Leclerc and Alex Claudio are currently in a committee of sorts but with Bush throwing 6 consecutive scoreless appearances it’s possible he enters the fray again. Jose Leclerc had thrown in the previous two games so he was likely unavailable. Claudio is getting more opportunities than the other committee members including tonight where converted his fifth save. Leclerc has traditional closer quality stuff but his 15.7% walk percentage leaves a lot to be desired. One could say the same for Claudio and his 15.7% strikeout percentage though too. Saves are saves so Claudio is the one to own right now but I’d prefer Kela and Leclerc for their strikeouts considering Claudio could be one poor outing away from leaving the committee.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
It’s worth noting that, according to the Indians TV broadcast, Francona has said that he may be using Cody Allen similarly to how he used Andrew Miller, depending on situation, while Miller is on the DL. This would leave Joe Smith and Bryan Shaw in position to pick up saves, so if you’re desperate for them, it might be worth a look.
This is good info, thanks!