Bullpen Report: August 17, 2015
Before we start I just want to say that I spent the weekend in Cooperstown, New York for a bachelor party. If you’re a baseball nut, and I assume you are if you traffic these parts, I would highly recommend the location. While the Hall of Fame itself is obviously worth visiting, an entire town devoted to baseball is a site to see.
To the bullpens…
• It wasn’t in a save situation but Edward Mujica had another outing to forget on Sunday, allowing three earned runs off of two homers and five hits in only one inning. Mujica’s seasonal ERA has ballooned to 5.25 and he’s been pitching as bad on the A’s as he was with the Red Sox earlier this year. Pitching poorly in the fifth inning of a blowout game probably means that your days of closing are done. I have taken the liberty to remove Mujica from the grid all together. On the bright side of the A’s pen is that Sean Doolittle is expected back “sometime on their next road trip that begins Aug. 24 in Seattle.” Given the competition, I would expect Doolittle to reclaim his ninth inning role immediately. Until then, Fernando Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz and/or Evan Scribner could see the next save chances but my guess is that it would be more fleeting.
• Without putting much thought into it, it’s not often that Zach Britton comes to mind when discussing top closing options but he’s more than deserving. Britton threw another scoreless inning tonight earning his 29th save on the year. On the year Britton has an ERA (1.86), FIP (1.95) and xFIP (1.74) all under two, pretty pretty good. Britton has remained a worm killing machine with a 77.7% (!!!) ground ball percentage and he’s coupled that with an increased K% near 30% this year. Among qualified relievers Britton has the lowest xFIP, the highest ground ball percentage and the sixth highest WAR. At this point there is a better argument to be made that he’s the best in the business than convincing me that even half of a handful of relievers are better.
• Brad Ziegler threw a scoreless ninth tonight for his 21st save of the year. Like Britton Ziegler also owns a GB% higher than 70%, so maybe grounders are the new strikeouts when it comes to relievers? Only kidding but in spite of his lack of swing and miss stuff Ziegler has been a steady option for the Diamondbacks. There is no chance that Ziegler maintains a .181 BABIP but after his success this year Ziegler should enter 2016 as the closer in Arizona. We still have some season left to go but the regression fairies are unlikely to destroy all the good will Ziegler’s created thus far.
• Quick Hits: Hunter Strickland gave up a run in the top of the ninth in a tie game, after getting the last two outs of the eighth as well. Although Strickland has been darn impressive this year, Santiago Casilla is still the closer and we still have Sergio Romo ahead in the pecking order. Trevor Rosenthal closed out the bottom half of the ninth for the Cardinals against the Giants, tying Mark Melancon for the league lead with 37 saves. Colin mentioned Carson Smith’s up and down yet still impressive season yesterday and after throwing two innings he was unavailable this evening. Fernando Rodney then took the bump in the ninth inning of a tie game tonight and proceeded to lose the game, loading the bases and then walking Adrian Beltre to lose the game, his fifth of the season. Smith can still have a few bad outings and keep the job so long as Rodney keeps shooting inaccurate arrows like he did tonight.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
Doolittle or Bruce Rondon ROS? I’m still concerned Doolittle declined velocity could be a major issue for him performance-wise, but Rondon could easily not be closing by the end of the week if he struggles in his next appearance or two.
I’d chance Rondon, at least he throws hard and has opportunities.
Good Q…I might actually go Doolittle. More risk of injury but I’ll take a bet he grabs the job and doesn’t release it.