Roto Riteup: August 18, 2015
Today’s Roto Riteup was written while listening to The Hotelier’s Home Like Noplace Is There. It’s definitely one of my favorite albums from last year.
On today’s agenda:
1. Randal Grichuk’s injury
2. Another home run from Pedro Alvarez
3. Derek Holland to return tomorrow
4. Streaming Pitching Options
Randal Grichuk’s injury
The Cardinals placed Grichuk on the 15-day disabled list yesterday with a right elbow injury. A mix of a muscle strain and a low-grade ligament strain forced the club to shelve their outfielder at least until next month. The right-handed hitter has posted a very strong offensive showing this season, sporting a .284/.333/.561 line. Grichuk’s .376 BABIP has certainly helped boost his triple slash but among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances, his 37.8 percent Hard% ranks tied for 19th highest and his 14.5 percent Soft% rates in the top 50. He’s tattooing the ball, not just squeaking by with dribblers or Texas leaguers. Corroborating the quality of contact numbers here, MLB’s Statcast shows his hits — not all balls in play unfortunately — have the fourth highest average exit velocity at 94.5 mph (cap tip to commenter McNulty [someone I can only assume is also a fan of The Wire] from yesterday’s Roto Riteup for making me double check the exit velo bit). Apologies for the really long sentence there…I don’t think I’ve ever used a comma, em dashes, parenthesis and brackets in one sentence. It seemed noteworthy. Sorry. Back on topic, I’d wager on seeing both Thomas Pham and Peter Bourjos both seeing time in center, though Jason Heyward could see time there as well.
Another home run from Pedro Alvarez
For the second game in a row — and the fourth time in seven games — Alvarez bopped a homer. He’s up to 19 on the year, already surpassing his total from last season. Via Baseball Heatmaps, the slugger has added more than 10 feet to his average fly ball distance over last year, jumping from 297.62 feet to 308.74 feet. Alvarez’s rate stats remain modest at a .252 batting average and .314 on-base percentage, however I can live with both of those numbers when they’re close to what non-pitchers have hit this year at .257 and .319 respectively. Despite the recent hot streak, if your league’s trade deadline hasn’t passed yet, I’d look to move him. Josh Harrison should be back soon and will likely reclaim the third base spot from Aramis Ramirez, with the Pirates possibly using Ramirez at first base in a platoon role with Alvarez.
Derek Holland to return tomorrow
After lasting all of one inning before a left shoulder strain derailed his season, Dutch is set to make his first start since April 10 on Wednesday against the Mariners. I’m pretty wary of shoulder injuries to pitchers, though the Rangers put Holland through four rehab starts before making the decision to activate him. Where he sits with his velocity, pitch count and delivery are all things I’m keen on watching as a knee injury limited the hurler to just 37 innings last season. Holland is probably at best a stream option until proven otherwise in standard 12-team mixed leagues, so even against a league average offense like the M’s, I don’t think I’ll be starting him. He’s free to pick up in 65 percent of CBS leagues, 85 percent of Yahoo! formats and over 90 percent of ESPN settings.
Streaming Pitching Options
If you enjoy streaming pitchers or play DFS, tune into the Roto Riteup for recommendations each and every day.
A pitcher for today: Kevin Gausman vs NYM (Jacob deGrom)
Getting the win today might be out of reach for Gausman, yet I still like him against a mediocre Mets offense. Gausman is freely available in 45 percent of CBS formats as well as more than 80 percent of ESPN or Yahoo! leagues.
A pitcher for tomorrow: Wily Peralta vs MIA (Tom Koehler)
The Crafty Peralta did me proud the last time I streamed him, so here I am. Once again. But not torn into pieces. Peralta is at home against a Marlins squad that ranks last in baseball in wOBA and wRC+ against right-handers. I’ll probably use Peralta in DFS as my cheap pitcher, allowing me to splurge elsewhere. Join me in streaming as he’s owned in a mere 25 percent of CBS or Yahoo! leagues and just 5 percent of ESPN settings.
You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
as bad as the Marlins have been, I don’t really trust Peralta, though he can be decent at times.
He’s been up and down no doubt, but this is just about the best match up for him. I’m rolling the dice.
Do you have any thoughts on fantasy teams altering their composition to influence who wins. I’ve got two teams who are replacing starters with relievers so as not to pass a guy in w and k. That’s a total of 4 points, which is huge. Any ideas how to combat it or is it part of the roto game
They’re not acting in their own best interests? They’re colluding with another team to help them win? That’s a clear violation of the good faith of the league and they should be locked out, kicked out, and not invited back.
I’m kind of an optimist, so maybe instead of taking a dive for W and K, they want to use relievers to boost ERA and WHIP?
If they are diving, get them out of the league, especially if there is money on the line.
Heyward start in center last night, but left after 2 innings due to hamstring tightness. Not sure how serious it is, but that’s another wrench in the Cards’ outfield situation.
Great write-up! I just want to add that Pedro “The Big Bull” Alzarez is already the lefty half of a first base platoon, splitting time with SeanRod and Morse when lefties are on the bump, so the Aramis position switch doesnt really affect pedro all that much
I almost noted that, but Rodriguez has gotten fewer starts at 1B in recent days, more PH/PR and 3B/OF.
David: lost Shoemaker to demotion. Playoffs just starting. 16 team points league. +4 for wins -2 for losses, so IPs and not giving up walks and home runs matter more.
Smyly recently promoted and facing a weak A’s lineup helps mitigate the damage. Hopefully he will have shaken the rust off by then.
Should I replace one of my relievers (Trevor May)for anybody from this group: Lamb, Conley, Jerome Willams, or Doubront? Not touching Rusin at home. Or just stay put and hope a decent starter gets dropped? I have two weeks.
BTW: how do I look up on FG which teams do poorly against lefties and righties?
I forgot and the neuropathy medication I take doesn’t make it easy to figure things out easily. Thanks.
One last question: does anybody know when Shoemaker might get called back up? He had a string of good starts before two stinkers.
My wager is by the end of the month.
Never mind. I managed to figure it out. Brewers dead last against lefties. Conley sounds like a decent start.
D’oh, just saw this…oh well. I already posted the link below.
I’m not sure how much value Williams really offers, so I’d give him the axe.
Teams vs RHP (sorted by wRC+):
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=14&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d
Teams vs LHP (sorted by wRC+):
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=13&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d
David:
Thanks for the speedy reply, as usual.
And thanks for the advice you’ve given me all season. I’m going against a very strong team and without Dickerson, maybe Duda too, Moss stinking the joint up and hardly playing, and with Carlos Martinez sure to have a start skipped soon (why haven’t the Cards done it yet? They’re 30 games over .500!) I’m not really optimistic that a miracle will happen.
Your suggestions have been greatly appreciated.
i actually rather enjoy baroque sentence construction – especially when it’s utilitarian – so no apology necessary (at least in my book).
thanx for the rite-up!
Well played.
David, any thoughts on Anthony Rendon going forward? He has been terrible since coming off the DL and I’m starting to believe he isnt fully healthy or this is just a total wash year. In a redraft league, where I own Delino DeShields as my other 2B, is it crazy to just roll with DeShields the ROS and move on from Rendon or do you see a late August/September bounce back where patient owners like myself are rewarded for our patience?
Rendon’s batted ball info like GB/FB, IFFB% and Pull/Center/Oppo are all in line with his career averages, as are his BB and K rates.
Both SwStr% and O-swing% are fine as well, so he isn’t pressing at the plate. I think his process is fine, it’s just variation.
That said, I’ve been using DeShields as my primary 2B in a lot leagues lately. I couldn’t fault you if you did take him over Rendon, I just don’t think the latter has lost all value just yet.
Do you guys like Carlos Rodon or Chris Bassitt rest of the season in a 12 team mixed roto? Thanks!
Bassitt doesn’t get much run support but I got a chance to see him twice against the Orioles and was very impressed. Throws strikes and gets ahead of batters. Nice mixture of fastball, curveball and slider. Plus a great pitcher’s park. I’ve added him in a 12 team league.
Rodon has the bigger name but he has a walk problem and a ballpark that’s tough on lefties not named Sale.
Bassitt for me, but I’ve been relatively down on Rodon all season, even before he was called up.
Hey David! Have a potential mega-deal in place and wanted to get your take on it. I’m currently in 3rd place in a H2H keeper league, working on a deal with the 5th place team. I get Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel, and Mookie Betts (with 2B and OF eligibility) and give Miguel Cabrera and Danny Salazar. My SP’s can rack up the K’s (have Sale, Carrasco, Strasburg, Syndergaard, Liriano) so I think Keuchel’s stability might be preferable to Salazar’s K-bility. Donaldson can be kept for either a 2nd or 3rd round pick (math’s a little complicated, I think it’s 3rd), Keuchel can be kept fairly cheap if I’m so inclined (likely 11th round or so), and Betts was drafted super high so he’s really just a player for this year’s playoff run (I need steals, runs, OBP, my OF is very thin and I’ve been crushed with injuries at 2B). Cabrera is keepable for a 1st round pick and Salazar went undrafted last year so can be kept very very cheap.
Just FYI my other keeper options include Correa (13th round), Sale (3rd), Springer (7th/8th), and Syndergaard (15th), and I can only keep 3 guys. Which side do you like here, (1) for this season and (2) for the long haul? Sorry for the long post, thanks David!
Cabrera won’t be 3B eligible next season and Donaldson of course will be, and is younger. Losing Salazar hurts, a lot, but your staff looks pretty nasty without yet.
I’d pull the trigger on it.