Bullpen Report: April 23, 2015
At this point, most are aware that Joe Nathan left a rehab appearance yesterday in Toledo after just 10 pitches holding his elbow. And as Colin noted in last evening’s Bullpen Report, Nathan was quoted as saying “he felt like he broke his arm.” The good news for Nathan is that the arm isn’t broken. The bad new for the Tigers’ closer is that he did indeed tear the ulnar collateral ligament and flexor pronator, which will require season-ending Tommy John surgery to repair.
With an estimated 12-14 month timeline for a full recovery, some may assume that the surgery could close the book on Nathan’s 15-year career. But, Nathan may have other plans, according to Bob Nightengale, anyway. Nightengale tweeted that Nathan will not hang it up upon recovering from his second bout with Tommy John — the first of which occurred back in 2010 also resulting in a lost season for the right-hander — Instead, he’ll plan for a full rehab in an attempt to come back as he approaches his 42nd birthday. This is as of today, of course. Something tells me these comments are the initial reaction of the competitor in Nathan. If by chance reality sets in and there’s a change of heart, Nathan will finish his career with 377 saves — good enough for seventh best all-time, as of today — and a 2.89 ERA.
All that said, Joakim Soria is a borderline top-10 closer the rest of the way. He’s still available in 20% of Yahoo! (likely abandoned) leagues.
Pirates’ closer Mark Melancon has also been receiving a lot of attention here at the Bullpen Report. Most are concerned with the right-hander’s significant dip in velocity, as Colin noted again last evening. But manager Clint Hurdle suggested that Melancon may just be a few weeks behind schedule and that his velocity will pick up here shortly — the same way Tony Watson’s and Jared Hughes’ have — and would continue to get the call in ninth-inning save situations.
Hurdle stayed true to his word on Thursday afternoon as Melancon earned the call in the ninth-inning of a one-run game at home against the Cubbies. Melancon induced a strikeout, a groundout and a flyout on ten pitches to close out Chicago.
John Axford, not Adam Ottavino, notched the save for the Rockies earlier today. Apparently this isn’t a case of manager Walt Weiss playing tricks on us fake baseballers, this was more of a scheduled day off for the newly minted ninth-inning man who may have been experiencing a bit of lower triceps soreness. This is obviously worth keeping an eye on, especially since John Axford struck out two en route to his second save of the season, despite allowing a free pass. I picked up Axford in a deep league in which I own Ottavino, so I would suggest the same if you’re desperate for saves and have the roster flexibility.
Quick Hits: Another day and another converted save for Andrew Miller and the New York Yankees. Miller fanned two and induced a groundout to secure his sixth save of the season on just eight pitches. Moving this situation to yellow for the time being on the grid. Keep your eyes peeled for green next. Francisco Rodriguez earned his second save of the season career today in a 4-2 Brewers victory over the Reds. Rodriguez struck out one and surrendered a two-out double to Zack Cozart, but sealed the deal on 19 pitches for the 350th save of his career. Wade Davis surrendered a hit, but fanned one to earn his fourth save of the season filling in for Greg Holland. Miguel Castro (4), Huston Street (5), Trevor Rosenthal (6) and Jeurys Familia (8) also notched saves today.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
In addition to contributing to the RotoGraphs blog, you can find Alan at his own site, TheFantasyFix.com and follow his nonsense on Twitter @TheFantasyFix.
Great insight as always. What do we think of Carson Smith? Does he have closer potential or is that too much of a jump? Thanks!
I wrote a tidbit about Smith a few weeks back in my middle reliever column here. He does have 40 MiLB saves under his belt, so sliding into that role at some point could be possible.
Caminero looks like he’s in the mix in Pittsburgh, based on his usage tonight. Maybe above Hughes…
I’d have to think he’s definitelu above Hughes. Hughes is ok and all but I think his value comes more from inducing a double play. I’d much rather see Caminero plugged in for a save over Hughes
Hughes was unavailable to pitch last night, as was Watson. I wouldn’t look too far into Pirates bullpen usage last night as they were admittedly shorthanded
also, for some reason even though Joel Peralta walked two batters, Mattingly pulled the plug on him as his closer for yesterday’s game. Pedro Baez came in the 9th and promptly blew the game.
Nice going Mattingly.
I always wonder when looking at closers whether I should favour talent level or manager’s preference. There’s definitely something to the increased velo / k% stuff, but more often than not, managers lay out the groundwork for who’ll close well before an injury / ineffectiveness.
Are you taking the 6-7th inning guy with a 10K/9 or are you taking the 8th inning guy with a 8K/9 (every year for the last kazillion years) — I know what to do with Scocia, but no one else.
Familia still yellow??
Should Gregerson be green at this point? 0 ER through 7 innings with 3 saves – Qualls got a save after 3 straight appearances by Gregerson and Deduno gave a save in the 14th after Gregerson pitched a scoreless 11th to keep the game tied. Doesn’t look like much of a battle anymore.
Why is Houston still Yellow? Qualls isn’t even pitching well and Gregerson is awesome.
I used to dream of being a backup quarterback but I think I made the right decision to persue baseball…
I’m sure this will be covered in one of the next bullpen updates, but for what it’s worth Kevin Cash said today on MLB Network radio that the Rays “don’t have a closer” and would continue to use their Relievers based on matchups. I would probably move Boxberger to red at this point since it seems between he, McGee (when he returns) and Jepsen that it’s going to be a true closer by committee.
Which sucks for me since I drafted Boxberger ahead of some other guys with the hope he would grab ahold of that job and not relinquish it. Seems that hope is gone for now.
Did Cingrani retire?