Bullpen Report: April 23, 2014
• Ernesto Frieri may be pushing himself out of the ninth inning in Los Angeles. A homer, then single, walk, and a double and the Angels’ closer bought himself another blown save (in a game the team would eventually lose 5-4 on another walkoff homer). Frieri actually continues to own a decent 3.30 xFIP but an ugly 8.80 FIP. So it comes down to homers (xFIP assumes league average HR/FB, FIP does not). The righty has given up a longball to 5 of the 42 batters he’s faced this year. That’s an unsexy 38.5% HR/FB%. Wow.Whether or not you believe that homer rate will normalize, Mike Scioscia has shown historically to have little patience for continued struggles in the late innings. Don’t be surprised to see Frieri get a “breather.” Remember, he’s had a couple before. Joe Smith would be next in line for saves and serves as a nice speculative add tonight. Michael Kohn throws a bit harder, so he would be a dark horse as well, but I’m not a huge fan of his walk rate.
• It appeared Josh Fields was gaining some traction in the ninth inning for the ‘Stros. That momentum came to an abrupt halt this afternoon as the righty served up a three-run shot to Kyle Seager, who used the swing to end Seattle’s eight-game losing streak. Fields has upped an already above-average whiff rate so far in 2014, pushing his K% from 25% to 31%. Interesting, he isn’t a complete burner, owning a 93.7 mph fastball and a single-digit SwStr%. A poor walk rate and lack of ability to induce groundballs has kept his xFIP at a decent, but unspectacular 3.60. Today’s outing may have hurt his odds of getting the next save chance.
It’s tough to find a standout arm in Houston’s pen. Tiny sample sizes, but Chad Qualls and Josh Zeid have both been better pitchers so far in 2014, but neither have tremendous stuff that scream upside. Matt Albers fits a similar mold. Anthony Bass has garnered a couple ninth inning opportunities but has only struck out 3 of the 43 batters he’s faced (that’s epically bad for those keeping score at home). Jesse Crain will be an interesting option, but still isn’t throwing, so his return isn’t imminent. Gun to my head, I’d expect Albers or Qualls to get the next save chance in this pen, but with such a low-upside committee, I’m not that invested.
• Pedro Strop had an afternoon to forget in Chicago. On in a 5-2 game, Strop walked a pair and had his defense betray him (E-6 — thanks, Starlin). A weakly hit single scored a pair and the righty was pulled (after whiffing Paul Goldschmidt) so James Russell could face a lefty. Of course, in Cubbie fashion, that didn’t end well. Russell allowed both of Strop’s inherited runners to score as well as one of his own. Strop hasn’t been bad in aggregate this season, but like Fields in Houston, this outing may leave a sour taste. I still really like Hector Rondon as a sleeper in this bullpen. Justin Grimm also has the stuff to be a late-inning guy, but his six walks in only 11 innings implies his command still needs a bit of polish.
• Matt Lindstrom keeps making life interesting (in a negative way) for the other Chicago team. The righty closer allowed the tying runs to reach base in Detroit, before inducing a lineout to right from Alex Avila. Lindstrom continues to maintain an absurd 3/4 K/BB in 10 innings and he’s the owner of a 5.23 xFIP. How is that sustainable? If you own Robin Ventura’s “proven closer(TM),” you should probably be trying to find a naive owner who says “oh, three saves!” when looking at his line. It’s tough to imagine him holding the job for a prolonged period of time.
• Kyle Farnsworth got his second save opportunity tonight, and it wasn’t nearly as clean as his first one was. Like Lindstrom, he was tasked with holding a two-run lead but allowed two base runners to reach. Only Matt Carpenter getting gunned down at home on a Daniel Descalso double save him from the dreaded BS. pr0FF3ss0r_F4rnsw0rth’s velocity was down a touch in this one, although he ramped it up a bit as the inning went along. In his defense, it was a cold night in New York, but he didn’t completely squash concerns about his postgame grimaces from the other night.
Oh, and don’t listen to Terry Collins. Daisuke Matsuzaka isn’t getting saves anytime soon.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
There are few things Colin loves more in life than a pitcher with a single-digit BB%. Find him on Twitter @soxczar.
Your “Johnathan Broxton” is back.
What’s wrong with Dice-K? Crazy things have happen; it’s Collins after all.
A guy in my league is giving up on J. Masterson, oughtn’t I to pick him up? even if it means ditching CJ Wilson?
Hold onto CJ. With Pujols back to form his run support will be rather awesome going forward. By the end of May a resurgent Josh Hamilton will be back as well.
Is Masterson likely to be an improvement? Hard to trust starting him.
Dice-K should be second in line now over Valverde. His taking over for Farnsworth may not be right around the corner, but it seems inevitable.
A guy in my league is giving up on Springer. Should I drop Khris Davis for him?
Yes. We know so little about either one as a major league hitter that both are essentially speculatory guys. Both have similar power potential, but Springer has huge SB potential as well. I would rather speculate on that.
So go ahead and drop Frieri for Grilli?
Grilli has lost some mph’s it seems, but control is coming back I think?
Or Huston Street is there too actually
What league would have Street unowned?
My guess is a head to head points league where mid-tier closers don’t mean as much as 2 start scrubs!
Ernesto Frieri is ruining my life.
Joe Smith time!
Is Adam Ottavino going to see saves once Hawkins inevitably fails or is flipped at the deadline? It seems his skill set and right-handedness better suits him for the role than Brothers. I know you have him second on your chart, but it seems that other publications/analysts still think Brothers is next in line…
I’m curious about this too. My guess is that Brothers is the guy in the long-run, but Ottavino would be the guy right now if Hawkins loses this job right now.
Is it worth spending $5 on Joe Smith in an FAAB league now?
Uhhhhh. Dice-K in, bottom 9th, against StTL.
This is interesting.
Farnsworth injured? Is Dice-K better suited to relieving than he was starting?
Karl Finesworth pitched the last two days so he’s just getting rest. But Dice-K could thrive in relief if he’s able to ratchet up the velocity compared with a starting role. Would make his likely high walk rate more palatable if he could continue to K more guys in relief.
Why isn’t Carlos Torres in the mix in NY? I know nothing about their bullpen, but he’s looking solid so far and does have a save.