Breakout Breakdown: First Base
Last spring, I wrote up a group of first basemen who I saw as valuable picks in the draft. Let’s review the initial projection, see what happened, and grade these suckers!
1B
Wil Myers | CIN
- My Projection: .265/.343/.493, 24 HR, 66 R, 71 RBI, 7 SB in 505 PA
- Final Result: .189/.257/.283, 3 HR, 11 R, 12 RBI, 2 SB in 141 PA
What Happened: OK, we’re starting off hot!! Well, hot vomit. Let’s not beat around the bush, this is a massive F-. Myers completely flamed out and was eventually run out of Cincinnati altogether as they called up a bevy of premium prospects, most of whom clicked upon arrival. He managed a meager 43 wRC+ in his tiny sample and was let go in late-June.
Why I Liked Him: I knew he was risky coming in because of his health profile and the fact that he had played just 77 games in 2022, but I didn’t expect a full-scale meltdown. I was betting on the health coming together for at least 130 games and hoped that his 110 career wRC+ could play up in Cincinnati’s excellent ballpark. I was hoping that even a downside playing time outlook of 70-90 games or so would still yield league average or better work, but it just didn’t happen.
What’s Next: I’m not 100% out, but it will obviously depend on his landing spot and playing time outlook. His price is quite literally nothing right now with a 723 ADP as he’s only been drafted 4 of 23 drafts so far. I’m not taking him unless he lands somewhere as I don’t expect his price to rise all that much even in a friendly landing spot.
Triston Casas | BOS
- My Projection: .255/.355/.466, 24 HR, 64 R, 72 RBI, 3 SB in 560 PA
- Final Result: .263/.367/.490, 24 HR, 66 R, 65 RBI, 0 SB in 502 PA
What Happened: I showed my amazing humility by dropping that Myers one first before showcasing this A+ gem! “So humble!” “So brave!” Thank you for saying that. What do you mean I typed that myself and just put quotes around it pretending they were quotes from someone? This might end up being the best of the entire bunch and he’s a good lesson in not making a definitive statement on a player too quickly. He took just a .193/.308/.359 line into June before reeling off a .299/.397/.556 line over the final four months with 18 HR and 49 RBIs (34/93 full season paces).
Why I Liked Him: Loved the big-time power and the fact that it came with a strong plate profile (25% K, 15% BB). His underlying skills said he was a hold during the early month struggles, too. I understand if you moved on in shallower leagues because you have to churn the backend of your rosters a bit more, but those who stayed patient were handsomely rewarded.
What’s Next: He’s up to pick-106 in early drafts, slotting as the 10th 1B off the board. That’s pricy, but all the skills I liked last year are there and now we have 597 career PA of a 128 wRC+ flexing those skills. He has .270-30-100 upside.
Dominic Smith | WAS
- My Projection: .265/.327/.447, 17 HR, 59 R, 66 RBI, 1 SB in 517 PA
- Final Result: .254/.326/.366, 12 HR, 57 R, 46 RBI, 1 SB in 586 PA
What Happened: Honestly, he was fine. I overstated the return of his power. I need to let go of his 2019-20 power (.271 ISO in 396 PA) and accept this new reality in the low-.100s. Outside of that, everything else was fine, but of course that isn’t a whole lot for fantasy.
Why I Liked Him: Obviously 2019 was the Rabbit Ball year so I knew he wasn’t getting all the way back, but I was shooting for an upper-.100s ISO. He was a super-cheap pick up and had some value in NL-only formats. This feels like an easy C+. He wasn’t fundamentally altering your outcome and certainly wasn’t hurting you.
What’s Next: Probably more of the same, a CI/UT fill-in for deep leagues. His range of outcomes still offers some upside, but probably via AVG more than HR at this point.
—
Not too bad overall. An F, an A, and C. At least you weren’t stuck with Myers and could move on relatively easily. Conversely, you did have to remain patient with Casas and in some shallower leagues, I can see why someone would’ve let him go. Smith was boring-but-viable for the deep league formats where you’d even consider him.
Who’s Next: Some candidates I could see filling this space later in spring include Kyle Manzardo (CLE), Ryan Noda (OAK), and Spencer Horwitz (TOR), or perhaps someone else blossoms during my research. Who do you like to sneak up at 1B next year? (Current ADP, select Draft Champions from the drop-down menu to get the most useful results)
It was so humble and so brave to put Myers first on your list. For Dom Smith, even though the results weren’t amazing, they did very closely mirror your projection so I would give you a B instead of a C.
For deep picks, CJ Cron (450 ADP) doesn’t have a team but isn’t far removed from being a legitimate fantasy asset albeit he’ll likely be outside COL. If Votto (680 ADP) signs on a team that has available PT, he play at a 30HR/162 pace. Luke Raley at 340 ADP is very late as well considering how good he was this year.
I appreciate the grade boost! I also can’t quit Cron and almost name checked him as well. Raley is surprisingly cheap after his season bc I think there’s some realness to it and he’s at least a strong side platoon stud
I’m a Nats Fan and I was unhappy all season with Dominic Smith. A .270 batting average is fine, but powerless at first base should hit for far more average and get on base more.