Brad Johnson’s Bold Predictions – A Review

I’m a little late to the Bold Prediction review party due to taking a brief hiatus this October. It’s time to play a little catch-up on end-of-season content.

This year, I decided to try a little experiment, I made 10 predictions using positive language and 10 more using negative language. It’s always been my impression that it’s easier to get a negative prediction right. Let’s see how I did this year. I’m going to organize this in the most confusing way possible, bundling by number. You’ll see what I mean.

Typically, I aim for a 20 percent success rate with these picks.

1. Travis Jankowski leads baseball in steals
1. Jose Peraza won’t hit fewer than 10 home runs

Jankowski stole four bases in 87 plate appearances. Peraza popped just five home runs despite plenty of playing time – 518 plate appearances. Looking back, I was a little cuckoo for Jankowski. I still think the Peraza bet was a good one. I’m still convinced anybody can run into 10 home runs with full time play at Great American Ballpark.

Score: 0-for-1 and 0-for-1

2. Cesar Hernandez steals 40 bases
2. Clayton Kershaw is not a top 20 pitcher due to injury OR he is not a top five pitcher

Hernandez improved his base stealing efficiency as I correctly predicted. However, he cut his attempts from 30 in 2016 to just 20 this year. Overall, he repeated his solid 2016 season by hitting .294/.373/.421. The high OBP was a necessary part of this prediction.

As for Kershaw, I thought I covered all my bases. The one scenario I didn’t plan for was missing just five starts. Kershaw wasn’t a top five starter, but he also didn’t finish outside of the top 20. Best I can figure, he was sixth best. Another five starts probably allow him to crack the top five.

Score: 0-for-2 and 0-for-2

3. Tommy Joseph AND Greg Bird hit at least 30 home runs
3. Home runs return to 2015 levels – fewer than 5,000

Joseph was on an easy pace for 30 home runs before he suddenly fell into a bottomless crater. Bird missed most of the season. Big whiff. And to be honest, I didn’t really think home runs would decline this year, but it made for a damned bold (and wrong!) prediction. Big leaguers hammered a record 6,105 home runs this season.

Score: 0-for-3 and 0-for-3

4. Nolan Arenado will break roto scoring with at least 50 home runs and 150 RBI
4. Edwin Encarnacion turns out to be the worst offseason signing

Arenado didn’t break roto scoring. He turned in a typical-for-him season of 37 home runs and 130 RBI. The Rockies offense as a whole was massively less effective than I expected. Practically all of Arenado’s run production was via Charlie Blackmon. If only Arenado had some more support.

Encarnacion hit 38 home runs with 96 runs, 107 RBI, and a 132 wRC+.

Score: 0-for-4 and 0-for-4

5. Maikel Franco Edwin Encarnacions
5. Todd Frazier posts a lower batting average than last year

Finally! No, not the Franco pick. I am going to keep making that prediction until it happens – even though 2017 was his most miserable season yet. Everybody said Frazier’s BABIP would rebound. Instead, as I anticipated, it declined from .236 in 2016 to .226 this year. As a result, his average fell from .225 to .213. On the plus side, Frazier improved his plate discipline and has emerged as a widely recognized clubhouse leader.

Score: 0-for-5 and 1-for-5

6. Marcus Stroman leads the league in wins
6. Jonathan Villar steals fewer than 30 bases

Stroman only won 13 games despite posting a 3.09 ERA over 33 starts and 201 innings. The ingredients for a successful prediction were present, but wins are a fickle beast. As for Villar, he swiped only 23 bases while posting a .293 OBP over 436 plate appearances. Feel the mighty sting of regression!

Negative me is heating up.

Score: 0-for-6 and 2-for-6

7. Yu Darvish adds a ninth pitch and wins the Cy Young
7. Aroldis Chapman is not a top five closer

Darvish wasn’t a true top pitcher this year which saves me from awkwardly making the case that his trade deprived me of a correct prediction. According to Brooks Baseball, he did not add a ninth pitch either. Having watched a fair number of Darvish’s starts, I’m now convinced he always had at least nine pitches. I see two distinct sliders. And possibly more types of fastballs than we have names to categorize.

Chapman recorded only 22 saves and lost his job for a decent chunk of the season – once to injury and once to ineffectiveness. He was not a top five closer.

Negative me is on fire. Positive me is firing bricks.

Score: 0-for-7 and 3-for-7

8. Addison Reed finishes top five in saves
8. The Red Sox have the worst bullpen in the American League

Reed could have proved me correct if the Mets weren’t so comically terrible. Instead, he was traded to support Craig Kimbrel in the Red Sox bullpen. The Sox had a top five bullpen by nearly every notable measure. So much for being on fire.

Score: 0-for-8 and 3-for-8

9. Sean Doolittle saves 30
9. Kenta Maeda throws fewer than 100 innings

This Doolittle pick was a victory in spirit even if it wasn’t factually correct. He saved 24 games while posting a 2.81 ERA, 10.87 K/9, and 1.75 BB/9. If you drafted him based on this prediction, you made a massive profit. Maeda did get bumped from the rotation late in the season. He still managed to tally 134.1 innings. This is another victory in spirit. The point was that he wouldn’t build upon or even repeat the 175.2 innings he tallied in his major league debut.

Score: 0-for-9 and 3-for-9

10. Adam Wainwright returns to roto relevance
10. Robbie Ray throws a no-hitter and posts over a 4.50 ERA

If Wainwright had managed to match his  4.29 FIP, he would have been “relevant.” Instead, he posted a 5.11 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. His 12-5 record over 123.1 innings was semi-useful. Ray didn’t throw a no-hitter despite scoring a superb 2.89 ERA. Wrong on both counts.

Score: 0-for-10 and 3-for-10

Final Tally

I went into this trying to bat .200. I came away one hit short. As I suspected, the negative picks performed much better with 3-of-10 correct. Three of my bold predictions came pretty close – the ones for Kershaw, Doolittle, and Maeda. Two of those were negative, nearly raising my batting average to .500.