Brewers Show Faith in Chase Anderson… And You Should, Too

Chase Anderson had shown glimpses of upside over his first three seasons as a major leaguer, during which he netted a 4.26 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 12% K-BB in 418.7 IP. He even caught the eye of our very own Eno Sarris, who heralded him as a solid deep league option for those first two seasons.  Unfortunately, he (Anderson, not Sarris… though Sarris has given up some bombs) had a home run issue as well (1.3 HR/9) only exacerbated by playing first in Arizona then Milwaukee.

A brilliant April (2.10 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 1 HR in 30 IP) drew some attention, but was mostly waved off as a hot start ripe for regression. When he posted a 7.71 ERA over his next four starts with 4 HR in 18.7 IP, he seemed to have been served his due comeuppance. There was something new in the last three of those four starts, but it was overshadowed by the results. Anderson’s velocity jumped again. It was actually up a tick in his first six starts – from 91.1 to 92.3 – before the mid-May boost to 93.1 mph. Then came the turning point.

On May 27th – a start I watched live out of coincidence because I wanted to see Zack Greinke pitching – Anderson put together seven no-hit innings before a Nick Ahmed single in a decimation of the Diamondbacks that included 11 Ks and 3 BBs. His fastball was up at 94.7 mph and the curveball, which had been getting featured more and more, was used 23% of the time (a season-high to that point) and held the D’Backs to an 0-for-6 (every pitch but the cutter had a .000 AVG that day) with 5 Ks. It was a coming out party against righties as they went 1-for-15 with 8 Ks and a walk. He had other solid outings vs. righties prior to that start, but none were near that level. In fact, his .099 wOBA against them would hold as a season-best. The timing was key, too.

In 2016, righties crushed Anderson with a league-worst .930 OPS (min. 370 faced) and he seemed headed down that path again. In his three starts before the Arizona gem, righties tattooed him for a 1.364 OPS in 41 PA. He was over reliant on the fastball (64%) and couldn’t get to his secondaries enough, especially the 90 mph cutter (7%) he’d been featuring on and off to that point. From the Diamondback destruction on, his arsenal against righties was deployed with 52% fastballs (compared to 60% in 2016), 22% curves (15%), 19% cutters (7%), and 7% changeups (18%).

The high heat (four-seamer and cutter) was a game-changer. Just 16% of those two pitches were in the upper third back in 2016, compared to a whopping 33% in 2017. The results were overwhelming. Righties managed just a .716 OPS (76 PA), down from an eye-popping 1.342 OPS in 2016 (34 PA). Armed with added velocity on both pitches, Anderson was much more confident up in the zone. And while it was a driver in his improvements vs. righties, it’s not like lefties had any answers, either. After a 1.080 OPS (29 PA) on upper third heat in ’16, their output was more than cut in half at .512 (52 PA).

Perhaps the most unexpected turn in Anderson’s breakout was a sharp drop in his home run rate. Yep, the guy with a career 1.3 HR/9 and 1.7 just last season turned in a career-best 0.9 in the Year of the Home Run. The fastball and changeup were instrumental here. After combining to allow 26 HR in 556 PA last season, they allowed just 10 in 406 this season. I don’t want to diminish the changeup dropping from 9 to 2, but sustaining the fastball improvements will be key to remaining a top-40 arm. Eight of the 17 fastballs homers in 2016 were in pitcher’s counts, tied for third-most in baseball. He allowed just one such HR in 2017, tied with 10 others for second and behind four who allowed none.

We have a velocity spike and an approach change that yielded gains in his biggest areas of opportunity: vs. righties and with the long ball at large. Let’s not sleep on the K%, BB%, SwStr%, F-Strike%, O-Swing%, BABIP, and LOB% gains, either. The latter two are definitely more prone to volatility so his .265 and 81%, respectively, that were both career-bests are worthy regression candidates, but to wave them both off as just good luck would ignore the aforementioned skill development.

The Brewers seem to believe in that development, inking Anderson to a 2-year, $11.8 million dollar extension that includes $8.5 and $9.5 million dollar club options for 2020-21. This will exhaust the 30-year old’s arbitration years and his first of would-be free agency if they take it all the way (and at those costs, it’s very likely as he can be a lot worse and still be worth just under $10 mil). The tangible progress, the previous runs of success (his entire rookie season, a 2.84 ERA in 79 IP to open ’15, and a 3.28 ERA in the final 74 IP last year), and a fresh new deal all have me believing in Anderson for 2018.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention his oblique injury that robbed nearly two months of time, but he returned with a 2.47 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 51 IP so I’m not particularly concerned about potential lasting effects. He has yet to surpass 152.7 IP in a season thanks to injury (oblique in ’17, triceps inflammation in ’15) or performance (just 5 IP/start in ’16), but with fewer guys going even 180 IP in a year, let alone 200, I’m not as concerned that Anderson may only throw 150. Of course, that leaves volume as a path to upside, too, as he could give back a little in the skills but log 175-180 in the process and still come out ahead.