Brad Johnson RotoGraphs Chat – 6/28/16

Brad Johnson: Alright folks let’s get the ball rolling. Looks like there’s a smaller group hanging out today

JD: I’ve got a hole at 1B who do you like: Matt Adams, Pedro Alvarez, Valbuena or Cron?

Brad Johnson: Alvarez is swinging a hot bat now and we know he’s streaky

Marian: Hi! Your thoughts on Jose Peraza as a possible 2B moving forward? Do you think he will stay up and play every day? Thank you!

Brad Johnson: He’ll stay up, I see him as a good utility guy rather than an every day sort

Thor’s Daddy: Can Syndergaard still be effective while pitching through a bone spur?

Brad Johnson: The majority of MLB pitchers have a bone spur in their elbow. I’m told it’s a result of pitching while growing

Nolan: Josh Reddick coming off the D.L. today. Is he a 10-team bat for you?

Brad Johnson: Not quite. He’s a streamer in that size league

JD: What are realistic expectations for Giolito over the rest of the year? How many starts will he get?

Brad Johnson: That’s tricksy because it’s performance based. Let’s say he gets 15 starts. Probably looking at a 4.25 ERA with 8.75 K/9 and 4.50 BB/9.

Brad Johnson: there is breakout potential such that he could be massively better

Brad Johnson: but that’s roughly the median projection

JalapEno: Willson Contreras will be a Top X catcher the rest of the way?

Brad Johnson: 3-5

Brad Johnson: He’ll play every day and that does a lot on it’s own

Brad Johnson: as long as he keeps hitting 4-5, he’ll high quality

A: How do you feel about Devon Travis ros after his recent surge?

Brad Johnson: I’m a Travis fan. I sold a bunch of shares prior to the season because I got awesome value (Scherzer, pre-injury Pollock), but I’d love to have him in more leagues

CJM: Jose Fernandez for CarGo and DeGrom, am I crazy to say no?

Brad Johnson: Not crazy, but if it’s a redraft, you have to remember he’s going to pitch less and less as the season goes on

Gavin: 10 team roto. Not a sniff of saves on WW. Trade jJake Lamb and Betances for Oh? Need the saves and could pick up Alvarez instead of Lamb

Brad Johnson: Sure. 10 team leagues are so shallow that you’re sometimes forced to do sub-optimal things. Though I wonder if there are better targets than Oh

Zach: Matt Shoemaker is a top ____ pitcher ROS? Do you prefer him or Nola?

Brad Johnson: I prefer Shoemaker now. The thing is, he’s a splitter specialist. If he loses the feel for it again, he goes back to bad Shoemaker

Lars: A.J. Reed worth rostering in 10-teamers?

Brad Johnson: Nah, you won’t regret passing on him in a redraft. Unless you’re already trotting out somebody bad that is…

eddie: Just sent Sano, Sonny Gray and Profar for Corey Seager, Tyler Glasnow and Matt Weiters…. did I win that deal or sell too low on two guys?

Brad Johnson: Keeper I assume. I kind of like both sides of this one. Lot of room for either of you to feel like big winners in a few years

Munenori kawasaki: Hello Mr Johnson, fan of your work with the bucs

Brad Johnson: I’ll never escape it

Ray: Drew Smyly – buy low or stay away?

Brad Johnson: stay away. The division is just so hard

Pat: Do you think Sano will rebound?

Brad Johnson: He already had rebounded when he hit the skids

Brad Johnson: so yes, I think he’ll be fine in his own special flawed kind of way

Seth: would you trade britton for schwarber+buxton+gregerson? keeper league (1 yr of schwarber @$10, 2 yr of buxton @$19) 16 teams and i am competitive but way out in saves

Brad Johnson: without knowing the keep situation on Britton, I’d probably pass on this

Avi: Brad, isn’t the bone spur surgery at this point of the year a season ending injury?

Brad Johnson: surgery is, yes. But you can pitch with a spur unless it’s grinding on something

Brad Johnson: it’s just a matter of pain tolerance then

Pat: Is Sonny Gray more the last 5 starts or more the first 10?

Brad Johnson: I’ll take the last 5

Sumner: Thoughts on Dylan Bundy, looks like the Orioles are gradually stretching him out. I’m in a deep 16 team league, should I speculative add hoping he starts after ASB? How many innings does he get ROS?

Brad Johnson: I don’t know that he has enough talent at present to start in the AL East. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t speculate on him, but I see few scenarios where you want him in your lineup

Manta: Stephen Piscotty still worth a hold in shallower formats?

Brad Johnson: I think so. But his modest power/no speed profile is kind of like Yasiel Puig in that it REALLY hurts when he’s off

Joe: Sell Villar now while his value is high or ride him all season

Brad Johnson: I’m holding/buying. Yea, he’s going to regress in BABIP, but the rest of the profile is stable

Brad Johnson: and he’ll still run wild

Jake: Who do you like more tonight: Kluber or Greinke? Either or both worth the price in DFS?

Brad Johnson: Love ’em both, and yes, they’re worth the price of admission

JD: How much of JBJ’s performance is sustainable in the 2nd half? He won’t have another ~30 game hit streak but is he still a top 15 OF?

Brad Johnson: top 15 may be a stretch, he’s probably a streaky guy at this point

Brad Johnson: don’t be surprised if he goes very cold

Brad Johnson: or he could warm up again

Brad Johnson: how’s that for helpful?

JT: Who finishes the year as the Reds closer? Lorenzen?

Brad Johnson: Iglesias

Joe D: In a keeper forever league: what to do about struggling outfielders puig, j.pederson, and buxton?

Brad Johnson: Hang tight on Buxton and Pederson. I’d start looking around on Puig. Someone probably wants to overpay on a buy low

Clifton: Danny Valencia sufficient as my 10-team 3B, or should I be seeking an upgrade?

Brad Johnson: He’s replacement level in that format. So yes, search for upgrades

m: have berrios, will sell. what should i be looking for in a non-keeper starter?

Brad Johnson: kinda depends on keeper costs, league type, etc. I’d probably target like a John Lackey/Jason Hammel type

Brad Johnson: solid 4 cat production

Brad Johnson: non-ace

Seth: i drafted chen and corbin (bad), stras and teheran (good), traded for harvey (meh)–do corbin and chen find a way to turn around–or should i be hunting for more pitching?

Brad Johnson: Hunt. Chen might recover but Corbin looks wrong

Jose Reyes: 1. Is Terry Collins an idiot for batting me leadoff? 2. Does that make me relevant in 10/12 teamers?

Brad Johnson: 1. Absolutely 2. Nah

Brad Johnson: So I was out on Jose Reyes as a 12 team SS before the whole domestic abuse thing

Brad Johnson: I think he’s gone full Jimmy Rollins, he’s done as a starting quality player

Brad Johnson: we’ll see what he has to say about it

John: Thoughts on Paxton? His FIP is still gorgeous but his starts are getting progressively worse and someone on twitter noticied he’s not throwing the curve anymore. Still worth holding onto in a 10 teamer?

Brad Johnson: Yea, he’s got upside with that new velocity. But there are a lot of pieces to the puzzle.

Brad Johnson: He’s had problems with being hittable/predictable in the past

John C.: What tier pitcher would you be looking for in exchange for AJ Reed? Verlander in the ballpark?

Brad Johnson: Redraft? Sure. Keeper? More.

Tim: What does Justin Bour look like ROS? Worth dropping Duda for?

Brad Johnson: Why do you still have Duda, he broke in half

Brad Johnson: Bour will be pretty boring – 110 wRC+, some power, some run production

Brad Johnson: I like streaming him in hitters parks

Baby Bears: Justin Bour – Trade while he’s peaking or hold the rest of the way?

Brad Johnson: Another Bour question – I don’t think anyone is buying high here

Bart: What should I do with Francisco Liriano, drop or hold?

Brad Johnson: Depends on league depth, we’ve benched him in our 20-team league

John C.: Who would you prefer ROS Rendon or Valencia?

Brad Johnson: Rendon

Brad Johnson: Valencia does offer more power and could be traded into a good situation

Nolan : Would you trade Bryant for Scherzer if you had Piscotty and Sano to fill the vacant OF spot? My rotation would include Thor, Kershaw, and Scherzer.

Brad Johnson: eh, I don’t think I would

Brad Johnson: depends on your needs, but I doubt you really need the pitching if you have Kershaw and Thor

Brad Johnson: unless the rest of your staff is Ivan Nova clones

Eric: If you had to keep one, who would it be? Melancon (11th round) or Dyson (14th round)? How much do you buy Dyson’s recent run? Thanks

Brad Johnson: Oh I buy Dyson completely. No need to make a decision on which to keep. Revisit at the end of the season

Dirk: What’s the probability Kelley keeps his current job? Is he worth keeping in holds league over Herrera or Strop?

Brad Johnson: I like Kelley but Papelbon seems to be recovering fine last I checked

Brad Johnson: As for the holds, they’re all the same asset class

Eric: Jon Jay went down and the Padres still didn’t call up Renfroe. Is he ever gonna get a shot this year?

Brad Johnson: No idea tbh. I’m not really expecting much from him. If memory serves, he’s got about a 2 WAR upside without the power or speed to be a fantasy dynamo. I’ll go confirm

Brad Johnson: Ah, bit of a power spike this year

Brad Johnson: Still probably a 20 HR guy at Petco, it’s murder on righties

Brad Johnson: plate discipline is a minus

Brad Johnson: he’s bad Nick Williams

Eric: How worried are you about Thor? Should we be looking to deal?

Brad Johnson: Not especially. It’s a concern that he gets some inflammation from it. Terrified of Matz if anyone was thinking to ask about him as a follow up

Brad Johnson: As I mentioned earlier. Most pitchers have bone spurs in the elbow. Only affects a few

Brad Johnson: Kershaw does for example

JD: Kolten Wong rebound in 2nd half?

Brad Johnson: I sure hope so

Brad Johnson: I have no helpful analysis with regard to Wong

Broseph: What are your thoughts on Travis Janowski, in light of Jay’s DL stint? Could he hold down the job and steal 20 ROS?

Brad Johnson: possibly, but everything else will probably hurt

Joe: Time for my weekly Maikel Franco check-in. So much upside, yet a difficult hold in 10-team. Advice?

Brad Johnson: I’m starting to look beyond 2016 for him

Brad Johnson: stay patient unless a much shinier option appears

Zach : Ubaldo’s ownership in GPP’s tonight?

Brad Johnson: I’ll say 7% in the FanDuel Squeeze. 40% on DraftKings where he has a ridiculous price

Christian: Super competitive keeper league, and always lots of speculating. I picked up Benintendi because I simply can’t miss out on what this dude could be. When do you see him up?

Brad Johnson: May see him late this year, probably 2017 after the Super 2 cutoff

Paul D: Best AL-only sleeper closer candidates: Diaz and Bedrosian?

Brad Johnson: I don’t care for Bedrosian

Brad Johnson: and my sources don’t like Diaz as a late-inning arm

Brad Johnson: Zych is on the recovery trail

Brad Johnson: Street’s the guy who will lose his job, but the Angels have nobody to fill the void

Brad Johnson: it’ll all be bad numbers

Brad Johnson: Maybe Trevor May rebounds?

Brad Johnson: and I always have my eye on Nate Jones

Brad Johnson: Robertson’s such a poor fit for Chicago, I could see him going nuclear

Paul: Jose De Leon has a ridiculous K/9 rate in the minors…does he have the repertoire to carry value in a 12 team league RoS if he gets the nod when Urias is removed from the rotation?

Brad Johnson: Yea, he has one of the best skill sets for immediately pitching well in the majors. Most call ups need a lot of time to adjust to using their stuff in new ways

Mark: Adam Duvall a sell high candidate in a 10-teamer?

Brad Johnson: Absolutely, empty OBP hurts when the homers aren’t flowing

Jobu: 12tm roto dynasty 5×5. In 2nd by 9 pts. Trade my Bautista and Castellanos or Bregman for Lindor and Oh? I am in 1st in every offensive cat except avg. (3rd). Worried about my SB lead though. Middle of the pack in saves and ratios. Should be able to flip a prospect for a power bat to replace Bautista. Trade make sense? Thanks!!

Brad Johnson: The return feels just a little light, but only because there’s uncertainty with Oh holding down the job

Mork: Nanoo nanoo, friend!

Brad Johnson: Si

Jackie Bradley Sr: Conforto was dropped in my keep forever league (13tm, 32 man rosters). Would you drop Inciarte, Gordon or Kepler for him? My other OF are Braun, A. Jones, Ozuna and Pillar (5 start). Thanks!

Brad Johnson: I would drop anybody but Ozuna for him in a keep forever

Brad Johnson: Specifically probably Kepler

Who is John Gant?: So Orlando Arcia has been playing 2B recently…if he qualifies there, where would you project him for 2017? Top 10? 20? Funny that he’s probably more valuable at 2B these days in fantasy than at SS…

Brad Johnson: top 20

Brad Johnson: I think there’s some adjustments for him to make in the majors

Brad Johnson: doubt he hits the ground running

Jaxck: How worried should Encarnacion owners be about Mike’s report from this morning?

Brad Johnson: didn’t see it, so excuse me a moment…

Brad Johnson: oh…I’m not worried about that

Brad Johnson: he’ll probably regress upwards in distance and downwards in HR/FB

Brad Johnson: end result should still be good

Brad Johnson: he does tend to wear down though

Hoff: 2016 is done for me, picked up Gausman for a buck in hopes of growth in the second half and ready to breakout in 2017. are you bullish or bearish on my theory?

Brad Johnson: I like the theory. You’ll need more than one guy to realize any returns. Grab enough Gausman’s and one’s liable to go partial Arrieta

Yard off my pace: IF Doolittle gets dealt, is it likely he becomes a certified closer again, or setup guy?

Brad Johnson: I’d expect him to be acquired as a setup guy

Brad Johnson: which contenders need a second division closer?

Brad Johnson: None

Eric: Does Trea Turner in CF do anything for his overall fantasy value or just potentially get him to WAS quicker this year?

Brad Johnson: I don’t like that idea. Unless they’re giving up on him entirely as a shortstop and/or starting quality hitter

Matt: Pomeranz and Kang for Jose Fernandez in a 10 team redraft, weekly lineup? He has Alcides Escobar at SS right now.

Brad Johnson: I’ll take JoFery for that price. Of course, you’ll feel some pain during playoffs, but that’s overstated. Get there first

fred: Archer, worth a hold in a 10 team league?

Brad Johnson: he shouldn’t be on waivers. But it hurts to use him…rough situation

Brad Johnson: I have him in so many leagues too

Minty: Is Gallo in the majors before or after the trade deadline?

Brad Johnson: After. They’re keeping him down for gamesmanship purposes.

Eric: What do you think of Suarez? Decent MI in 12-team league, or more of a back-end guy?

Brad Johnson: Yea he’s a starting MI in 12 team for sure

Brad Johnson: probably 10 team leagues too if they have MI

Mike: 16 team dynasty league – someone in one of my friends leagues traded Kolby Allard, Triston Mckenzie and Mychal Givens for Maeda. Fair?

Brad Johnson: Probably, they’re going to hate themselves in a few years though. I hope Maeda really solves a problem

Kevin: Sam Dyson or Papelbon ROS? H2H points league.

Brad Johnson: Dyson

Pete: I know this isn’t a prospects chat but, any thoughts on Ryon Healy? Worth an add on the WW in a 14 team dynasty? Thanks.

Brad Johnson: Absolutely

Brad Johnson: go grab him now in that format

Brad Johnson: Now, I have reservations about his team/home stadium/division

Brad Johnson: but he’s a solid power prospect

The Boss: How do you decide which questions to answer? What type of questions are you most likely to respond to?

Brad Johnson: haha good one! Well I mostly just go in order until I realize I’m 15 minutes behind the post time

Brad Johnson: then I skip forward

Brad Johnson: I don’t answer any question that asks me to rank X players

Brad Johnson: they’re invariably either the same asset class or just a really weird list

Brad Johnson: Otherwise, I only skip questions if it would take a lot of research to offer a valid opinion

Minty: Gamesmanship as in Gallo was dogging it?

Brad Johnson: Mostly it’s about trading. If Gallo is in the minors, they can claim they don’t have any pressing needs for leverage purposes. They can also point to his improvements in the minors this year when shopping him without worrying about him going 0-for-12 with 10 strikeouts in the majors

Kevin: Michael Saunders or Choo ROS? H2H points league.

Brad Johnson: Saunders

Gary: Bregman. When?

Brad Johnson: September is my guess

Eric: Follow up on Hoff’s Gausman theory: you mentioned grabbing “enough Gausman’s” and hoping for a breakout. What other pitchers likely available in 12 team leagues would fit that category?

Brad Johnson: off the top of my head, Conley, E-Rod, Pineda, Ray, Smyly, Fiers, Nelson, Eovaldi, yordano,

Mick D: D-Backs pitching is iffy, especially miller and Corbin. Ray isn’t all that dependable either. Is Brandon Shipley a likely call-up soon?

Brad Johnson: Maybe, but he doesn’t improve anything. It’s not like he’s going to displace one of them barring DL

Joe: Trevor Bauer a hold or a stream in 10-team?

Brad Johnson: hold

Brad Johnson: or buy

Brad Johnson: all formats

Yostian: I was excited to use my No. 1 waivers claim for Lorenzo Cain in a 10-teamer and got him…only to see no one else put in a claim. I should still be excited, right?

Brad Johnson: Yea I think that’s fine. We used our number 1 waiver for Chase Utley in 20 team dynasty just in case Ben Zobrist falls in a hole

Brad Johnson: same situation, no other bids

Billy: Taijuan Walker had mediocre stats all year. How much of that is injury and how much of that is him struggling? Is he a sell ?

Brad Johnson: oh that list of Gausman should include Walker and Stroman too

Brad Johnson: as for Walker, he’s an incomplete pitcher. He might one day have his Carrasco/Bauer moment. Or he might not

Brad Johnson: let’s get him traded to Cleveland

Yard off my pace: Cory Luebke 2016 K/bb rates per 9 in AAA (14.24 / 1.47) and majors (9.35 / 11.42) – what gives??

Brad Johnson: Not a major league pitcher

Brad Johnson: there’s a BIG skill gap between Triple-A and MLB

mario mendoza: what separates AJ Reed from Jon Singleton? Their AAA numbers are so similar

Brad Johnson: Hopefully, better contact rates (SwStr%)

Brad Johnson: hopefully…

Billy: Where does Amir Garret slot in a fantasy prospect list? His ceiling is super high?

Brad Johnson: I really don’t get excited about Reds pitching prospects. They’re on a /ignore list until they have MLB success

Brad Johnson: Stephen Strasburg-type prospects notwithstanding

Tani Levitt: Who would you give for a package of Jeremy jeffress and khris Davis?

Brad Johnson: Adam Duvall?

Brad Johnson: Jeffress adds like 5-10% to Davis’ value

Brad Johnson: he’s mediocre, he already has a better reliever breathing down his neck, and he’ll probably be traded into middle relief

Billy Sims: Better to keep Puig or Schoop going forward, long term?

Brad Johnson: Puig

Brad Johnson: Schoop needs a large breakout to be more than streaky interesting

Gucci: Taillon droppable in a 10 teamer redraft?

Brad Johnson: oh definitely

Brad Johnson: he’s a streamer there

Cheese Chester: Can we finally trust Trevor Bauer?

Brad Johnson: yes

Coach: Traded Hamels and Sam Dyson for deGrom in 10-team redraft, particularly due to roster crunch and being attentive to my rule of always trading when I get the best player in the deal in this format. But did I give up too much?

Brad Johnson: maybe, you’ll know at the end of the year if you’re a couple saves short of the win

Hoff: Mazara only has 17 XBH in 250+ ABs! Do I let this alarm me as an owner?

Brad Johnson: So…

Brad Johnson: I’m a big Mazara fan

Brad Johnson: He’s been grounder heavy in the early going which does have this result

Brad Johnson: I think he’ll balance out more, and we have to remember how young he is

Brad Johnson: he’s probably a little overmatched at present

Brad Johnson: long term, I wouldn’t worry

Brad Johnson: if you’re in a re-draft, yea, there are concerns to be had

Billy: Mike Zunino was scorching hot early in the year, and the avg has just continued to plummet. Do you think he is improved, or was that early rushing a ruin for him? Worth an own in a 16 team dynasty with 25man minors rosters?

Brad Johnson: I’d look for a non-catcher, but yea, he’s top 400 in the minors

Snarfle: Can you top my Jankowski for deep league sneaky stealsy?

Brad Johnson: Not right now. My steal monster (Roman Quinn) is hurt again

Anthony: Why the Ryon Healy love?

Brad Johnson: 15-20 HR bat with potential for good contact rates and quality batted ball outcomes

Brad Johnson: and he’s right on the cusp of a call up

JD: How do I make sure people in my 18 team dynasty league don’t go M.I.A. for the second half of the season?

Brad Johnson: well for most rule sets, it’s unavoidable

Brad Johnson: nine of 20 teams were MIA for the start of the season in our industry leage

Brad Johnson: lot of rebuilders this year

Brad Johnson: now there are some tricks – late season drafts, extended trade deadlines, increasing the quantity of prizes

Mike: 10-team H2H league. Would you drop Jake Lamb or Rajai Davis to pick up Nola (just dropped)? Could use an SP but don’t want to give up an asset if Nola isn’t gonna be Nola of old.

Brad Johnson: Pass

crump: Daniel Mengden has looked pretty good in four starts. Any thoughts?

Brad Johnson: I’m watching him closely

Brad Johnson: no formal opinion yet

Brad Johnson: potential to be a solid guy, not a huge ceiling

Snarfle: I have Buchter as my post-deadline saves stash. Anyone else? Feliz?

Brad Johnson: I think Harris and Giles will be fine and Gregerson too

Brad Johnson: so Feliz isn’t close to saves imo

Brad Johnson: Buchter’s a fine choice for once Rodney’s traded

Brad Johnson: gonna wrap up soon

A-Aron: Travis or Baez ROS? 10-Team OPS league

Brad Johnson: I’ll take Travis for consistent starts

Billy: Randal Grichuk worth holding in a 10 team league, 40 man rosters, 18 keepers? Or should I just try to land the next big thing?

Brad Johnson: Look for the next big thing, but I’d have a little patience with Grichuk before moving on

Minty: Not as in a guess as to what they’ll do, but if you were the Rangers would you actually try to trade Gallo for a pitcher now rather than later?

Brad Johnson: Teams don’t really trade now. They assume you’re desperate if you want a deal now, and they make desperate teams pay

Albert Pujols: I was just traded for Jonathan Villar in a H2H Cat league. Who wins?

Brad Johnson: I’ll take Villar

Brad Johnson: Hardly anybody steals that much without killing other categories

Mark: I picked up Snell. Worth hanging on in a 12 team mixed? Drop for Conley, Desclafani, Odorizzi, Norris-Det.

Brad Johnson: I think you can stream around those guys. I like Odorizzi more in general. I wouldn’t touch Norris

Grep: Bullish on Glasnow in keep 4ev dynasty?

Brad Johnson: Sure. The ceiling is massive

Brad Johnson: the floor could hurt your soul

Brad Johnson: in a “he’s almost soooo good” kind of way

Larry: Traded Duvall for Heyward. Ok in a 12 team keeper?

Brad Johnson: yea I’m fine with it

Gavin: What do you expect from Waino ROS. Has he sunk to streamer level?

Brad Johnson: nah he’s worth owning. He’s looked mostly fine lately

bill: Heyward ever going to turn it around?

Brad Johnson: speaking of Heyward, I hope so

Brad Johnson: it took him awhile in STL and he’s been banged up this year

Brad Johnson: ok I have dynasty trade talks calling

Brad Johnson: Ben Duronio wants to trade us Trevor Story for some reason

Brad Johnson: blitz round…

Billy: Stroman a buy, sell, hold?

Brad Johnson: sell…if you even can

Brad Johnson: I just cut him

TheRealThor: More likely to produce something this season: Margot or Benintendi?

Brad Johnson: Margot

This hurtz: Drop Matz in a redraft ?

Brad Johnson: No

FGM: Upton and Stroman for Trout. A big win?!

Brad Johnson: huge

Brad Johnson: so huge

The Final Boss: Can I get Europe’s The Final Countdown as my walk in music? It just feels right on so many levels.

Brad Johnson: nah