Brad Johnson RotoGraphs Chat – 5/31

Brad Johnson: Hey everyone, I’m running just a couple minutes behind. We’ll get started soon.

Brad Johnson: Ok, let’s rumble. I have much need calories to consume.

Brad Johnson: needed*

John Sterling: Hi Brad! 10 team 6×6 league OPS & QS being the added categories, was offered my Rich Hill and Oddball Herrera for his Jeff Samardzija, Adrian Gonzalez, and Colby Rasmus? Do I pull the trigger on this one or are Hill and Herrera for real?

Brad Johnson: Was this counting Hill’s supposedly minor injury? It’s tempting to take the more established guys to ensure a higher floor. With it being a fairly shallow league, it’s always best to focus on the best player. Which, honestly, could be any of the five. I’m a big Herrera fan, but his supporting cast limits his ceiling

Hooha: do you think the Astros will call up Bregman or Reed this summer?

Brad Johnson: Very likely at least one makes the roster. Luis Valbuena’s resurgence gives them some breathing room. If it continues. Reed’s been dealing with an injury and only looks OK, Bregman is annihilating Double-A but has to learn a new position

Brad Johnson: I assume the position switch is also why Bregman is still in Double-A

gootchgootch: Eickoff a decent return for D. Travis in a 12-teamer with no MI spot (no one buying 2Bs in trade). Deep benches so 100-ish SP owned. I have Odor returning Saturday

Brad Johnson: Pretty light if you ask me. Even with the conditions you mentioned

Frank Abignale Jr: Heya, Brad! Sure you’ll get a million of these, but just in case – what are your thoughts on Buxton RoS?

Brad Johnson: Might as well get this out of the way

Brad Johnson: the stat to watch is SwStr%

Brad Johnson: His only glaring issue at the plate is that he swings through everything at the MLB level. Doesn’t happen in Triple-A

Brad Johnson: while the talent gap between the two levels is large, it’s not THAT large. We should see the cracks a little more clearly in Triple-A if they were very serious

Brad Johnson: In other words, I think he’ll eventually be the monster we all expect. Maybe not this year, but eventually

Boggs: Who is more likely to keep this up ROS? Steve Pearce or Adam Duvall?

Brad Johnson: Duvall is Evan Gattis at a ridiculously power friendly home park

Brad Johnson: Pearce is getting by with some crazy fluky numbers versus LHP

John: Was offered Heyward for Kluber – was I right to be insulted?

Brad Johnson: Smells fairish to me. I’m a little leery of both of them now, but I’ll stick with the healthy one

Brad Johnson: I have them both on a H2H roster. Wish I could do something with Heyward

Aaron: Need pitching in a keeper league. Move Odor & Bregman for Carrasco, Panik, and Turner? Have Schoop at 2B, Macahdo, Villar, and Seager at SS.

Brad Johnson: The deal itself smells fine, especially once Carrasco is healthy and shows he’s 100%. So if you can wait without the offer being pulled, you should

Brad Johnson: and I do think you can do better

Brad Johnson: Those are two monster keepers you’re selling

Brad Johnson: The pair for a slightly acier ace should be in play

Josecanyousee: What sort of power hitter or pitching return could I expect for Jose Altuve?

Brad Johnson: You can target any player not named Kershaw, Harper, or Trout. Hell, add a second piece and target them anyway

Jack: Heyward or Odubel Herrera in 5×5 dynasty?

Brad Johnson: Ooh that’s a tough one. I’d take Herrera RoS but probably still lean Heyward for the foreseeable future

Brad Johnson: I love the adjustments Herrera keeps making. I see him as a faster developing Michael Brantley

Alexei: Hi Brad! More of a Strategy question here. In an 8×5 H2H league how far is hitter value skewed from SPs? What type of hitter should a Jose Fernandez type get you?

Brad Johnson: The specifics matter, but you’re looking at about 2X categories per hitter. Only a few relievers contribute to all five categories.

Brad Johnson: hitters are already more valuable than pitchers so you’re looking somewhere between a 80/20 or 85/15 value split pre-draft.

Brad Johnson: That flattens post draft. Getting back to who to target, I’d still try to aim higher than reasonable for a Chris Davis or someone else between the 15th and 30th best bat.

Shawn: Thoughts on Harvey’s start yesterday? Velocity seemed to be back up

Brad Johnson: I was finishing up a vacation so I’m a little out of touch on everything that’s happened. What I’ve read was encouraging but I don’t have anything to add

gootchgootch: Do you see a return to modest form coming for Keuchel? Last time out encouraging?

Brad Johnson: If he’s hitting spots and getting low strike calls, he’ll be fine. The issue was that the low strikes vanished. I’d look for the 2014 version going forward

Josecanyousee: Also, Maikal Franco worth owning in 5×5 10 team leagues? I have Seager and Beltre at 3B already but could go short at another position I suppose

Brad Johnson: He’s worth owning but you should let somebody else pull the trigger

Brad Johnson: Or trade to upgrade another spot THEN pick him up

Brad Johnson: there’s no reason to stockpile in a 10 team league. There is ALWAYS another guy at a given position

Brad Johnson: closer being the one possible exception

Matt Shoemaker: I have a 13% SwStrk rate, and 70% F-Strk rate, and yet no one is talking about me. I know that I have a bad fastball, but people should take notice!

Brad Johnson: Stream starter – usually somebody to stream against due to the HR rate

Gucci Mane: There’s way too much discontent with Heyward. He’s racked up 24 runs, and he’s been hitting terribly (until a few days ago). He’s hitting in the 2-hole in a great lineup. And he was drafted a few rounds after Upton…

Brad Johnson: My only real concern is with the minor injuries he’s battled

Brad Johnson: those can cascade into a more serious problem

Brad Johnson: and they do seem to have affected his performance

Brad Johnson: You mention his 24 runs, but that’s terrible production from his lineup role. He should be on pace to score 120 runs, not 75.

ROBOCOP: Do you think Villar finishes the season top 3 in stolen bases?

Brad Johnson: Yes. Possibly top 1. Nobody is running as often as him

Dylan: In an OBP league, I dropped Puig for Steve Pearce. Tell me it’s going to be OK, Brad. TELL ME IT’S GOING TO BE OK.

Brad Johnson: Well, depending on the league depth, I don’t think you’ll really have much to regret. My concern is how long Pearce will continue to mash. He’s a tough character to read

Monte’ Max: Is it time to just outright dump Adam Jones in a 10 man Dynasty league?

Brad Johnson: No

Olrun: Ryu had a setback in his rehab and missed his next scheduled start and Tyson Ross is set to begin throwing. Are either worth a DL slot in a 12-team league? Will Ross make it back if he has just been cleared for problems? Shoulder problems seem like more an unknown than elbows.

Brad Johnson: There’s always setback risk. If there’s no opportunity cost to stashing one, go ahead. I’d go with Ross

Brad Johnson: If there is a cost, I’d pass

rustydude: If you had to drop one of these guys in an AL only league, which one would you choose: Teixeira, Fielder?

Brad Johnson: Sorry you have that choice, they’re both yuck

Brad Johnson: I’d probably dump Tex

Rated Rookie: What’s your take on Conforto’s ceiling?

Brad Johnson: 30 HR, solid average, no speed, tons of run production while batting third

Brad Johnson: Kind of like the good version of Colby Rasmus

yojiveself: which 2b should I own hereon out in a 12 team 5×5 h2h – pearce, solarte or jose ramirez?

Brad Johnson: Definitely not Solarte. Pearce is the hot hand and I’ve always had a soft spot for Ramirez as a steady type

Kate Upton: Can Verlander keep it up or is he really just getting lucky? (aside from the 8th last night)

Brad Johnson: He did this last year too, but it took longer

Brad Johnson: At the very least, he can give the Tigers a regular chance at a win while pitching 7+ IP

Brad Johnson: he’ll flop occasionally

Rick: Hi, Roto 12-man 5×5 standard league, I was offered Altuve and Yelich for José Fernández, Brett Lawrie, Stephen Piscotty and Khris Davis. Yay or nay?

Brad Johnson: Really depends on who fills the gaps. I’m no longer a huge Yelich fan. The GB rate isn’t going to change which kills his fantasy numbers

Brad Johnson: Altuve is obviously the best of the bunch, but you’re paying for the best stretch of his career. I think the cost is a little too steep. I assume you need SB though?

Brad Johnson: Sometimes it’s worth overpaying for a guy who dominates a category

Nathan: Is Corey Dickerson worth owning in 12 team leagues at this point? Babip is very low but so is the 11% LD rate and his already pretty high K% is up 3.5%.

Brad Johnson: Yea, I still pick him up when I see him cut. I’ve slowly added more and more shares

Brad Johnson: He’s also cuttable if you really need a spot for something big

Brad Johnson: solid role player for now

JUp: What the heck should I do with Justin Upton? Too much upside to drop? Waiver options include Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, Gerardo Parra, Carlos Beltran, Grichuk, Inciarte..

Brad Johnson: With those waiver options, you can move on. In fact, I recommend just streaming guys at Coors or against the Reds

Zorak: Inciarte still worth owning in a 12tm h2h points? Hasn’t sniffed my starting line-up since coming off the DL.

Brad Johnson: No, he’s cut-able

Patrick: Need serious help! Which side do you like better? AL Keeper: Machado, Springer, Rodon, Justin Wilson, Ianetta for McCann, Lindor, Frazier, Kluber, Britton

Brad Johnson: Machado-Springer side

Brad Johnson: Those 2 and Lindor are the long term assets

Brad Johnson: the second side is more win-now though if you’re willing to cash now and cry later

N.W.enO: What are your thoughts on Abreu?

Brad Johnson: Bobby Abreu is a quietly borderline hall of famer

Brad Johnson: my favorite part is that the Phillies traded Kevin Stocker to get him

Brad Johnson: Jose Abreu is also still a top 10 1B

Brad Johnson: barely

earls ghost: 14 team pts. league. Give up finally on Pineda? Recently picked up Folty and Shoemaker from the WW.

Brad Johnson: Not sure I’d give up, but I’m not going out of my way to keep him

Brad Johnson: The stuff is still there

Monte’ Max: 10 teamhead to head dynasty is it worth dropping Adam Jones for Benintendi or Meadows at this point? I have sufficient depth to do this I just am frustrated and feel like I am wasting a roster spot on Jones.

Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t, although do find a way to roster Benintendi. I have him in a normal 12 team keeper along with Swanson, Bregman, and Reed. They’re eating 4 of my 6 bench spots

Pete: What kind of return can I seek for Brandon Belt in a dynasty? Been looking to trade him, but can’t find anything to my liking just yet.

Brad Johnson: Market somebody else, you won’t get a fair return

Brad Johnson: He’s just one of those guys whose perceived value is way below his actual production

Brad Johnson: The Giants tend to be heavy on those guys, maybe we all just subconsciously hate Giants

Brad Johnson: For example, I’d like to trade Santiago Casilla in my deep dynasty, but the offers I get are clownish

Kenton: Carlos Martinez was just dropped in my 10-team re-draft. Is he a hold or a streamer in this format? Would you drop Maybin to add him?

Brad Johnson: He’s a hold, but that doesn’t mean he’s the right fit for you. If you need SB, AVg, and R, then Maybin could be the better fit.

Brad Johnson: Kinda imagine there are better OF than Maybin if you need different stats

jon: Thoughts on starting E-Rod today?

Brad Johnson: Oh nonononononono

Brad Johnson: Do not, under any circumstance, consider starting ERod

Rated Rookie: 11-team, keep-16 forever 5×5 league. My team is middle of the pack. Trade offer on the table: Carrasco + Puig for Conforto + Blake Snell.

Brad Johnson: Well, that’s a toughie. The second side is probably much better long term

Brad Johnson: Though you might not keep Snell into next season

Brad Johnson: pretty easy to draw up 176 better keepers

Brad Johnson: I no longer know what to make of Puig. With his inconsistent power and speed, he was always a weird fantasy asset

Justin Turner: Am I in a two month funk or just not very good?

Brad Johnson: It’s possible the Justin Turner Experiment is nearing a conclusion. He’s getting old-ish and has battled so many minor injuries. They add up

Warm, Kakie Center: which side would you rather be on in a 6×6 (ops + qs) h2h league: trea turner + thor for springer + victor robles?

Brad Johnson: Thor this year, maybe Springer long term

Brad Johnson: assuming it’s a keeper since Robles ain’t sniffing the bigs this year

Paul D: Brad, what AL underperformers are you most bullish on? I own Ortiz, Cano, and Castellanos but am concerned about regression RoS

Brad Johnson: Yea they’re due for some regression. Let me pull up a list

Brad Johnson: JUpton, Jones, Abreu, Dozier, Pillar jump out as solid rebound candidates

Paul D: Who’s the next Sam Dyson?

Brad Johnson: Will Smith

Jad Brohnson: Two quick ones for ya: In OBP, Gallo shouldn’t be dropped, right? Am I crazy for thinking he has top 10 potential in that format? Is Liriano nothing more than a SP4 at this point?

Brad Johnson: Well I just don’t see playing time for Gallo. If it’s a redraft, you have to let him go. Probably accurate re: Liriano

Mike: 12 team OBP league that counts QS rather than wins. I have some OF depth and would like to add another starter. Ozuna too much to give up for Nola?

Brad Johnson: Yea, probably. I’m a little cautious regarding Nola. He could pitch extremely well and still only win 2 more games all season. Or he could post a 4.00 ERA. He’s not a true ace.

Dago: Speaking of Jose Abreu as a rebound candidate. I have a tendered offer of Jose Abreu for Matt Harvey. I have Joey Votto as my 1B. Lucas Duda occupying my DL spot. My gut says that is a good deal. My rotation headliners are Fernandez, Archer and Salazar besides Harvey. It’s a 10tm 5×5 league. Would you do it? Would you take that trade. Thanks, Brad!

Brad Johnson: After yesterday, definitely hang onto Harvey

Brad Johnson: the velocity reports alone are enough to reject that swap

Mike: Traded last round Corey Seager and Tyler Glasnow for 1st round Sale. Needed pitching (Stroman, Lackey, Rodon, Porcello, Jon Gray) and have Harper, Trout, Betts, Machado, Sano, Lucroy. 12 team H2H 8 keeper. Am in 1st but having some regrets. Thoughts?

Brad Johnson: This is how it’s supposed to work. Years ago, I swapped Harper for Joey Bats, Chris Davis, and a couple aces. Harper’s the only guy still on a discount contract of that bunch

Brad Johnson: I regret it, but that trade was the only reason I finished third instead of 10th that year

CW: Brad- always enjoy the chats. Scooped up Profar in a 10 team keeper…what do i do when Odor returns this weekend? Profar has flashed some ability this time around, so I hate to cut him- but seems to be the best route with some good waiver options out there?

Brad Johnson: Most leagues, the right move will be to cut. Maybe wait to see how the Rangers react though.

Jack: Is Salazars career ceiling top 10 SP? Is he there already?

Brad Johnson: Top 10 is a little high, but he can definitely hang with a Cole Hamels or Jon Lester

Brad Johnson: i.e. top 20 guys

Andrew: Is cutting Giles for Will Smith a good idea?

Brad Johnson: well Smith is still on the DL, so I’d advise dumping someone easier to reacquire.

Something Brewin’: Scooter Gennett’s walks are up. Any hope of him making big strides as a hitter?

Brad Johnson: I think he’s making a modest stride. Expect a little more power too

Bill: Jhoulys in AL only?

Brad Johnson: Shudders.

Brad Johnson: Also, yes, AL Only requires some dumpster fires. At least he has a good home park

Philly : Nick Williams seems to be hitting much better than AAA teammate JP Crawford. Any chance the Phillies call up Williams right after the Super 2 date?

Brad Johnson: Almost no chance

Brad Johnson: there are other developmental items in play

Brad Johnson: The Phillies probably have a good four or five OFers they’ll look at before Williams. At least until sometime mid-2017

Shawn: Thought I’ve heard somewhere that in the summer Camden Yards plays like Coors Field. Have you seen/heard this? Would you target Adam Jones?

Brad Johnson: Camden Yards is an excellent park for HR. Left-handed HR are similar to Coors. But the comp isn’t entirely accurate because it’s not as friendly for other types of hits

Brad Johnson: Coors is what it is because EVERY type of hit type is buffed

Top 6: Adam Duvall is in the Top 6 for HR in the NL. I know the trade and park helped him, but can he keep this up?

Brad Johnson: I’m going to keep saying this. Adam Duvall is Evan Gattis

Don’t call me Pedro: Sounds like Dodgers are going to release Alex Guerrero. Where do you think he ends up?

Brad Johnson: Philadelphia and Atlanta make sense for any free agent outfielder

Ryan: Should I drop Urias for Will Smith?

Brad Johnson: in a redraft? Absolutely

Brad Johnson: in a keeper, not unless you can re-stash Urias after popping Smith on the dL

Ryan: How does Hyun Soo Kim compare to Jung Ho Kang? I grabbed Kim in an OBP league and am hoping he continues playing every day. Thanks.

Brad Johnson: The comparison is kind of forced, but it’s fair to note the slow transition to the majors. I haven’t seen enough of Kim to offer much of an opinion

canofcorn66: Schoop or Travis long term?

Brad Johnson: Travis

Conflicting Reports: People seem all over the board as to whether the Braves will call up Ozzie Albies in June. Any insight as to what they may do?

Brad Johnson: He’s not very fantasy relevant at the moment. you’d be looking at a .260 average and a few stolen bases

Brad Johnson: There’s upside for a lot more, but he’s years away from it. Reminds me a little of Elvis Andrus

All in the Familia: What’s your take on the recent struggles of Jeurys Familia?

Brad Johnson: Shit happens? Pretty sure he’s fine

Q: Idk what to do with Velasquez in a 12 team H2H keeper league with QS. I know his last couple starts have been shaky and against decent offenses, but his 140 Innings limit scares me. Is it time to try and trade him or hold on to him for his duration of the rest of the year?

Brad Johnson: Should have traded him immediately after that Padres game. He’s going to be maddeningly inconsistent

Jack: Is JP Crawford going to be an elite fantasy SS or will he have more real life value?

Brad Johnson: He’s more a real world guy, but there’s room for big fantasy production too

Brad Johnson: He’s a little disadvantaged by the influx of great SS prospects

Brad Johnson: they’re skewing what elite means at the position

marc: Brad, I see in the Grind you are bearish on Shoemaker tomorrow despite his past couple of starts. Is this more of you don’t believe in what he has done recently or the team he is up against?

Brad Johnson: He’s always a risk to give up three home runs

Brad Johnson: those may be solo home runs, i.e. not a huge deal

Brad Johnson: or they could be multi-run disasters

MO: Burns & Stroman for Yu fair enough?

Brad Johnson: Yu is worth much more imo

MB: flipped pomeranz for adam jones. when do i get to pay myself on the back?

Brad Johnson: Maybe soon. Probably eventually.

Brad Johnson: I still don’t think Pomeranz is a SP

CW: Benintendi up this year? 2017 regular?

Brad Johnson: Well he’s not doing well in Double-A, so I’ll say no to this year. We’ll see if he gets hot again.

Brad Johnson: Probably 2018 if he doesn’t get rolling again

canofcorn66: Is Votto ever going to…y’know, be Votto again

Brad Johnson: I haven’t a clue. Sorry to the dozen people asking for insight. He’s a smart hitter, he probably just needs to discover a feel that works

Cal: Continue to roll with Freeman at 1B in a 12 team H2H? Napoli is sitting on the wire. Freeman just doesn’t drive in any stinking runs!

Brad Johnson: Freeman

ryN: If/when Gattis is C elig do you prefer he or Vogt?

Brad Johnson: I’ll say narrow edge to Gattis

Brave New World: If Arodys Vizcaino is traded, who is (a) the best pickup for immediate saves and (b) the best pickup for ROS saves?

Brad Johnson: Can’t say I’ve tracked the Braves bullpen closely. Gotta guess Grilli is still the guy they want to do it

Brad Johnson: Obviously, the lost command is a concern

Andrew: Two hot 1Bs on the wire in 12-team redraft: Matt Adams or Logan Morrison ROS?

Brad Johnson: Adams

Brad Johnson: would love Adams if he was competing with Moss and Holliday for 1B reps

CW: Saw you mention Nola as not a true ace- what should my target be in a 10 team keeper if I’m looking to move him?

Brad Johnson: well, if you’re shopping him, you bill him as an ace type. In that case, you do target someone like Ozuna

Gee: Chris Davis for MadBum fair? Which side would you want?

Brad Johnson: Fair. I’d take either side depending on need

Andrew: You mentioned stashing Benintendi- when do you expect him to be called up? Is he worth it in a red

Brad Johnson: not in a redraft, not

Brad Johnson: no*

Gucci Mane: Smith or Perkins a better DL stash for those looking for saves?

Brad Johnson: I’m pessimistic about Perkins making a true return

Brad Johnson: so I’ll say Smith.

Brad Johnson: If Perkins does magically return to health, I’ll be wrong

Brad Johnson: Winding down now, I have a lot to get done post-vacation

Ricky: Pomeranz and Jose Abreu for Arrieta. Thoughts?

Brad Johnson: Arrieta is worth way more

Cheapskates: If the Phillies fall out of contention, do you think they trade Jeanmar Gomez and then try to pump up the value of David Hernandez and/or Andrew Bailey by making either the closer instead of putting Neris in the role?

Brad Johnson: Yes, yes, and yes. If they fall out, they probably trade all three vets and install Neris

Brad Johnson: they actually have enough pitching prospect to make that work too

Lars: 10 team re-draft: Kershaw and Encarnacion for Blackmon and Miggy – which side you got?

Brad Johnson: Kershaw

Brad Johnson: Game breaking numbers

Brad Johnson: the other side could end up being more valuable

Brad Johnson: and there’s always a chance the category effect favors the pair of hitters too in your league

Catching Zs: Wieters or Gattis rest of season?

Brad Johnson: Wieters?

Brad Johnson: push?

Minty: How bad is my AJ Reed stash? He doesn’t even seem to be doing that great in AAA.

Brad Johnson: For redraft? Yea, you may want to shift to Bregman or Swanson. Reed should still be valuable long term

Shin soo-Choo Express: Neris Ruined my Monday yesterday… stick with him or drop for someone like Oh or Feliz?

Brad Johnson: Well…all relievers have bad days

Brad Johnson: Splitter ballers are feel pitchers and Neris is overworked. I’d say keep him but tread lightly

Zb : Need spot start for tonight Ross at phi or happ vs yanks?

Brad Johnson: Ha, I’m using both in DK (shh, don’t tell the TDG readers)

Brad Johnson: Either is fine, might lean Ross

Brad Johnson: Those are very high quality spot start opportunities

Enrico Palazzo : 10 team 5×5 NL-Only: Was offered Granderson + AJ Ramos for my Grichuck. Pull the trigger?

Brad Johnson: Probably, especially if it’s not a keeper

TheRealThor: When is a good time to start stashing shares of Dee Gordon?

Brad Johnson: I’m seeing it happen now

Brad Johnson: depends on your bench depth

Brad Johnson: deep benches should have stashed all along

Brad Johnson: I have a 3 bench league with deep roster and holds, none of us can afford to burn a bench spot

MarinerDan: Alex Bregman worth holding onto in a 13-team redraft league?

Brad Johnson: Opportunity cost matters, but he should have relevance later. May want to shop him

Minty: Is Wellington Castillo worth stashing in a 10 team OBP dynasty?

Brad Johnson: He’s worth starting despite the slump

Curtis: Which player is the most asked about in this chat? how about thus far this season?

Brad Johnson: I get Jones and JUpton over and over every week

Brad Johnson: Got a lot of Votto, Gallo, and Buxton this week

Brad Johnson: I think that’s a good place to call it quits. Thanks for playing everyone. See you next week.

Kylo Ren: It sounds like you think Reed is not worth stashing in 10 team league?

Brad Johnson: Redraft, definitely not

CW: Contreras- worth a stash? Would drop wacha or Heyward. 10 team keeper. Already stashing Reed/Bregman/Turner/Tail.

Brad Johnson: let someone else do it