Brad Johnson RotoGraphs Chat – 5/24

Brad Johnson: Let’s get this going. I tried putting an apple in my smoothie today and it’s gross

Alex: Hey Brad. My Drew Smyly and Rasmus for his Lorenzo Cain and Jepsen? 20 teamer, keep forever league.

Brad Johnson: I think you can do that, but it’s not a must trade if you don’t need saves

Mr. Wrestling IV: You gotta take out the seeds

Brad Johnson: I did that, it’ just gross mushy.

Odor Rules: Would you trade McCann and Carlos Martinez (my 5th starter) for Posey?

Brad Johnson: Probably, depends on format.

Poncho: Can Jameson Taillon resurrect my pitching staff after all of the damage Chris Archer has done?

Brad Johnson: Never count on a SP rookie to provide a miracle

Brad Johnson: I mean, he might save you, but he looks like an immediate mid-rotation type

Brad Johnson: and that won’t save anybody

Monte’ Max: Is Dozier a bounce back candidate or can you put a fork in him at this point?

Brad Johnson: he’s a candidate, but I’d still look to upgrade

I’m not your buddy, Guyer: So, is CarMart WW material in a standard 10 team roto?

Brad Johnson: Nah, hang with him

Macho: Smyly, May, Teixiera, Rasmus for Kang, Park, Jake Lamb… What do you think>

Brad Johnson: Gimme Park and them

Goody: When do you expect to see Twins prospects Berrios and Buxton back in the majors?

Brad Johnson: if/when they perform well in the minors. I know Buxton looks good, but contact is the indicator to watch

Brad Johnson: and he’s unimproved in that regard

Mr. Wrestling IV: If you were drafting today, which round would you take Votto?

Brad Johnson: I always need to run through a draft or two to get a good sense, but I’d guess around the 9th or 10th.

Cubbies: Have opportunity to move Giolito (keeper league) for Cueto, Kluber, or Greinke. I’m trying to win now, worry later. Which of the three do you take ros?

Brad Johnson: I like all three quite a bit. I’d have to walk away for five minutes to fully answer this. Trust your analysis and do take one of them

Brad Johnson: In a general sense, some questions require research on my part. I try to answer a high volume of questions since I don’t get to so many. That means less research

Brad Johnson: moving along

Avi: Do you have a replacement smoothie to solve the issue? Also, is Michael Wacha going to return to his 2015 level?

Brad Johnson: I could, but I’m slowly making them grosser and grosser (i.e. healthier) on purpose

Brad Johnson: Let’s say .9*2015Wacha

Brad Johnson: DFS has taught me he’s not a great asset

Brad Johnson: hits a wall at 5+ innings

A Goods: Is it worth the wasted roster spot to keep Peter O’Brien? When do you expect him to hit the D-backs roster and what type of impact will he have?

Brad Johnson: I don’t know your league, but I bet there are much better prospects available

Brad Johnson: I don’t think O’Brien starts unless there’s some injuries

John Locke: Dropped Jaime Garcia and Glasnow in a 12 team weekly roto H2H league for Neris of the Phillies and Seung Hwan Oh. Smart?

Brad Johnson: I do like Neris a lot, but the Phillies are going to break him before he gets the CL job at this rate. Would have kept the starters I think

Saul: Talk to me about Gallo. He’s gotta be up for good right? No way Rangers play Stubbs over the Big Man.

Brad Johnson: Stubbs is gone. Hoying and Rua are his primary competition

Brad Johnson: and it just depends on whiff rates. If Gallo is making more contact, he plays

Brad Johnson: if he’s same as last year, it’s a Hoying/Rua platoon

Brad Johnson: Gallo could also sneak time from Fielder/Moreland since they’re both hitting poorly

Brad: What do you see from Homer Bailey this year…when he makes it back?

Brad Johnson: There’s no way to answer this beyond looking at normal TJS returns and his past numbers

Brad Johnson: I’ll guess a 4.50 ERA with 8 K/9

Brewers Manager: So vetos are terrible. TWICE my trade for harper has been veto’d. Are these trades vetoable? 14 Team H2H 6X6 with 6th categories being Walks for batters and Losses for starters. First trade was His Harper for my Joc Pederson, Aldemys Diaz, Wade Davis and Drew Pomeranz. He dropped Zych,Buccholz,& Gattis. That was vetoed in week 3. Then the most recent one was Harper and Dee for Aldemys Diaz, Jake Odorizzi, Wade Davis & Will Harris. He was dropping Buccholz and Zych. Am I wrong?

Brad Johnson: Still reading…but I hate vetoes too

Brad Johnson: I have a standing policy, you veto, I quit

Brad Johnson: Those do seem light for Harper. There’s no star leaving your roster

Travis: In a 12 team keeper, got offered $10 Odor & $1 Wheeler for my $7 Daniel Murphy. Is this a worthwhile trade or should I just hang on to Murphy?

Brad Johnson: Do it. Odor alone is worth it.

Odubel: valencia or longoria at 3b ROS? Who ya got?

Brad Johnson: Gonna sound crazy, I had Valencia at a comparable valuation preseason. Seen nothing to change my mind.

Brad Johnson: I’ll still say Longoria, but it’s close to 50/50

HappyFunBall: Offered Greinke + Posey for my Syndergaard + McCann. Keeper league. I think this is today’s gain for tomorrow’s loss. Thoughts?

Brad Johnson: Syndergaard is all kinds of red flags for health. I think Verlander’s the only guy who lasted awhile with that kind of stuff

Brad Johnson: So I wouldn’t worry too much about the future. Pitchers spontaneously immolate. If giving up Thor comes back to bite you, shrug

FireFreddieG: Thoughts on Gallo?

Brad Johnson: Already touched on his roster battles. I want to see a sub 30% K rate before I jump aboard. Obviously you roster first then cross your fingers

Billy: Adam Conley still a hold after his last start?

Brad Johnson: He’s on the edge of hold/streamer for a 12 team mixed

Brad Johnson: Nobody should plan to own him all year unless the league is 14 teams or deeper

yojiveself: If Matt Harvey stinks tonight, is it time to sell for pennies on the dollar? He had a side session a few days ago to fix things. other than a phantom DL injury, I dont know what else the team can do.

Brad Johnson: No point selling for pennies. Just eat the roster spot until he’s DL’d

rhubarb: 10-man ESPN points league – Trade my Xander for his G. Polanco? I have Machado, the Seager bros. and A. Diaz. My outfield is Herrera, Dietrich, Calhoun, Pederson, Maybin and Gordon (DL).

Brad Johnson: Yes, good use of a surplus

Nick: Thoughts on Jon Gray? Watched some of his starts and he seems to have great stuff. His career FIP is 2.56.

Brad Johnson: Just steer clear at Coors. And against some tougher opponents. In short, he’s an elite streamer

Kari Faux: My Salazar and Adrian Gonzalez for Kluber and Ozuna. 10 team mixed redraft.

Brad Johnson: Push. I like Salazar most right now. Kluber’s off his game

AJ: Got in the same team: Heyward, Dozier, Fielder and Upton. Too many people to wait on, nobody wants in trade. Should I drop some? And if so, for meh pieces or prospect stash?

Brad Johnson: Fielder or Dozier are the drops. Just depends what’s out there

Mr. Wrestling IV: Do you expect Jhonny to be back to his old self when he comes back, or is the thumb a potential to sap power?

Brad Johnson: Both

Brad Johnson: I think he’ll be fine, but there’s always risk

Gee: Giolito or Taillon for NA spot for a redraft league? Or keep both and burn a bench spot?

Brad Johnson: Taillon. Giolito is getting further and further from his MLB debut

Questionably Wise Old Sage: A. Reyes, AJ Reed, T. Turner, J. Gallo , J. Taillon, J. Berrios, T. Glasnow, O. Arcia, JP Crawford… Which two will have the greatest impact ROS? Can you list your order of preference? Should I grab Urias or Ryu from LA ROS? Points league (season long).

Brad Johnson: I’ll go Gallo (already majors) and one of the Pirates guys

Boris: Is a .222 hitting Kemp here to stay?

Brad Johnson: He’s 2-for-9, relax

Brad Johnson: He’s not a full time player. The comp is Willie Harris

hey: it is worthy to trade harper for a haul? harper is just getting BB all the time

Brad Johnson: Don’t feel like you have to. He’ll still get to 30 HR with big run production

Brad Johnson: but let somebody overpay if they want to

Young Jeezy: So….you still holding onto Justin Upton?

Brad Johnson: Sure

Brad Johnson: do note I have zero shares

yojiveself: trying to find a permanent solution for my 2B. Stick with Steve Pearce or roll with Shoop?

Brad Johnson: neither is a permanent answer

Joey: Dynasty League: Do you view Raisel Iglesias as a very good commodity or are there too many concerns about injury/work lod restrictions?

Brad Johnson: I’ve always had more issues with Iglesias than my colleagues at FG. I’ll call him more solid than good. Possible core performer with upside and downside

Alex: Pomeranz for Harvey a decent buy low, sell high right now? Just thinking with Pom probably on an innings limit…

Brad Johnson: Yea

Brad Johnson: not the innings limit so much as the lack of repertoire

Brad Johnson: I still say he’s a reliever

Wilmer Flores: If he gets regular playing time with duda out, do you think he’s rosterable in mixed or NL-only league?

Brad Johnson: Definitely in NL Only

Brad Johnson: I think the Mets will sign James Loney though. It makes too much sense

OddBall Herrera: What are you thoughts on Baez? He seems to have figured out at least some of his strikeout problems, but he still never walks and has forgotten how to hit for power. If/when Bregman comes up and qualifies at 3B, who do you like better?

Brad Johnson: Bregman. I think Baez is an awesome super utility guy

Brad Johnson: and he’ll be a fantasy asset 2-3 years from now

Monte’ Max: Will Joseph take over full time at first at some point this year?

Brad Johnson: We need to see a lot more from him first. Definitely trending that way.

Brad Johnson: The issue is they can’t bench Howard without cutting him. Then what do you do if Joseph turns pumpkin? Rhy Hoskins and Cam Perkins?

Saul: Astros bringing up Bregman soon? What’s the use in letting him wreck AA pitching?

Brad Johnson: Promotion to Triple-A could come any day now

Brad Johnson: I’d bet by end of May

Brad Johnson: When they promoted Moran, they had JUST moved Bregman to 3b. I bet they want him to adjust to that without changing levels

Ol roy: How do u rank these starters tmrw for DFS? Lewis, Kuma, Guerra

Brad Johnson: Guerra has Braves huzzah huzzah

Pie: Who would you take for the next month: Gallo, Trayce Thompson, or Pearce?

Brad Johnson: Ooh, tough question. Next.

Brad Johnson: Kidding, I’ll hesitantly say Thompson. I may be getting way ahead of myself there

OK Google: Are we seeing the real Mike Saunders? Assuming he stays healthy, that is.

Brad Johnson: minus 10%

Brad Johnson: or more. .408 BABIP isn’t real

Mike: JUpton has been parked on my bench for quite some time. Michael Saunders is avail in my 12 team H2H redraft – would you consider this drop/add?

Brad Johnson: I’d think about it. You may be crying later when JUpton goes 25/10/35 with a .310 average in June or July

Westish Harpooners: Curious what you think about my J. Upton for his Archer in a 12 team H2H redraft? I want to hold out hope for Upton, but it’s not looking good.

Brad Johnson: I like this

Brad Johnson: good challenge trade

Brad Johnson: Hamilton for Volquez 2.0

Darth Vader: should I add jp Crawford or swanson for 2017?

Brad Johnson: Swanson

Brad Johnson: JPC is overhyped for fantasy purposes

Brad Johnson: going to be an awesome real world player with adequate fantasy utility

Rob M : Let’s say Alex Reyes is called up after another few starts in AAA. What can we expect from him July-Sep?

Brad Johnson: He won’t be. Right now he’s a 5.00 BB/9 guy in the majors. They won’t promote him until that’s fixed

Brad Johnson: or he’ll be relieving

Don the Jeweler: I’m getting mixed signals on Goldy. BABIP is way low, but he still has footspeed…but his hard hit % is down, and his walks are up. Are they pitching around him, and will this correct itself? Or is he diminished…

Brad Johnson: Lot of it is pitch around. He’s also looking a little passive at the plate to me. Which can come of being pitched around

Brad Johnson: best case, scouts decide it’s time to attack him and he goes ham

Tony: Does Grichuk seem to be turning it around?

Brad Johnson: I’ve seen signs of a turn around a few times. The back injury has me staying away no matter how minor. At least for a few days

Cubbies: Ignoring position eligibility, and starting at whenever his callup date is, AJ Reed over Drury and Valencia? Also have Bregman on the wire. Gut feeling is fine.

Brad Johnson: No to AJR. Yes to Bregman. I’m starting to think Reed needs a full season at Triple-A

uru: Who’s the Yankees starting outfield August 1st? Who’s the Twins starting outfield August 1st?

Brad Johnson: Gardner-Ells-Beltran?

Brad Johnson: with Hicks in the mix. I mean who else really gets involved? I’m not sure Judge is ready and they won’t call on him if the team still sucks as a whole

Brad Johnson: and I don’t know that they can trade any of the old guys

Brad Johnson: Robbie Grossman will start all 3 spots for the Twins

Brad Johnson: also Sano and a scrubby mystery man like Santana

Brad Johnson: or Arcia

Brad Johnson: basically, what they have now

Zorak: Keep Corbin or drop him for Urias/Giolito/other stash?

Brad Johnson: Corbin

Brad Johnson: at least in redraft

Jonny: Masahiro Tanaka a hold or a stream in 10-team?

Brad Johnson: hold

J.P.: Now healthy, does McCullers pitch his way into the top 20 SPs this year?

Brad Johnson: No. Doesn’t last long enough per start. Won’t get the necessary volume even if his ratios are good

Chuck: Charlie Blackmon just need a little Coors helium to get things going?

Brad Johnson: He’s playing a little banged up. Not sure he’ll really get going until he feels 100%

Joey: How are you valuing David Dahl in Dynasty? His walk rate and ISO are way up this year in AA and he will play at Coors. Am I over rating him to hold him over Kepler or Kyle Tucker?

Brad Johnson: No, you’re right to take Dahl. He’ll be a Coors Field monster.

Brad Johnson: Think about Trevor Story. Similar skill set with higher ceiling

MookieTheW: I’ve been a big Justin Upton Apologist this year but hes been testing all the patience. I could see a big second half coming, but I’ve been offered Tanaka for him. Should I just cut bait and take 70 cents on the dollar?

Brad Johnson: I don’t think I’d take Tanaka for him, but it depends on your specific needs

Brad Johnson: I feel the same way, especially since I don’t actually own him

Brad Johnson: I feel bad saying to hang with him when I get none of the pain. But that’s what the analysis says to do

Btdrnks: my Felix Hernandez and Conley for his Salazar and McCullers?

Brad Johnson: Yes

Brad Johnson: please and thank you

Josh: Given Perkins’ setback and May’s struggles, is Perkins really going to stick at closer for the forseeable future (not that he has any save opps anyways)? Would Abad now be considered next in line?

Brad Johnson: I don’t even know. What a mess. If it’s any consolation, the Twins don’t win games so you don’t need their closer

Oliver: Whats up with Maeda? A little rough patch or start to worry?

Brad Johnson: League’s adjusting to him

Brad Johnson: he’ll be rosterable in most mixed leagues still

Don’t call me Pedro: The Dodgers are nearing a forced decision on what to do with Alex Guerrero. What do you think they do?

Brad Johnson: cut

Brad Johnson: trade/whatever

Brad Johnson: They have a nice roster without him. It’s a downgrade to keep him

Oliver: Salazar or Lester ROS?

Brad Johnson: push. Love em both

Dr. Drew: Is Drew Pomeranz really this good? What is the difference this year vs. prior years?

Brad Johnson: No. A .218 BABIP is the difference

Brad Johnson: He is better though. He’s buffed his CB usage considerably which is why the strikeouts are up

Brad Johnson: the league will adjust

Brad Johnson: expect a 3.50 ERA with plenty of Ks

Jackie T. : Is V Velazquez and every start starter? I benched last night @ DET and I’m happy. Seeing CHC next on the docket, which I’ll probably bench. With the innings limit, he’s not looking super valuable if he’s not an every start starter.

Brad Johnson: Velasquez is going to be a headache to own. Trade him while he’s well-regarded

Brad Johnson: hugely talented, hugely inconsistent

Brad Johnson: throws like 9 different pitches and never knows which 2-3 three he’ll lean on until game time

Don the Jeweler: Is Jackie Bradley Jr. the next Tony Gwynn? Ok… how about Kirby Puckett? Can’t really tell how good he is.

Brad Johnson: bad comps, but he’s finally a real fantasy asset

Brad Johnson: he’s a buy high candidate

Oliver: If Yankees fall out, % that Miller gets traded and becomes a closer?

Brad Johnson: 60%

Brad Johnson: maybe 75%

Brad Johnson: do think they’ll keep Chapman to either re-sign or collect the draft gold

Jimmy: Did Leonys Martin change anything fundamentally to be able to keep this up? How much longer at this rate of production before adding him?

Brad Johnson: I’ve been meaning to take a closer look. Been seeing comments about changes. Not sure I believe them

Jesus: Is Trayce Thompson actually Alex Guerrero in a Trayce Thompson mask? I haven’t seen them in the same room together

Brad Johnson: I’d rather pretend to be Guerrero, he has the better contract

Shawn: Shallow league – Tiajuan Walker or Rich Hill ROS?

Brad Johnson: Um…Hill? Assuming he lands with a nice contender

Brad Johnson: I like Walker too though, he’s just inconsistent

OddBall Herrera: Re: Dahl, do you like him more than Buxton at this point? I’m starting to despair of the Twins’ ability to develop talent

Brad Johnson: for fantasy purposes, yeah

Brad Johnson: I know that’s crazy talk, but Coors does crazy things to a hitting line

Kidd Chris: Is Pujols droppable in a dynasty league? I dont play him at 1b or UTIL, just hoping for the rebound and trade. Should i stop wasting my time?

Brad Johnson: Only if the replacement is particularly good

Brad Johnson: somebody will need a 1B around the same time he hits 5 HR in one week

Frank: soler or corey dickerson ROS?

Brad Johnson: Dickerson and not even close

tom selleck: what do you think happens with reyes? is he worth a bench spot just in case?

Brad Johnson: Jose? I think he was entering scrub land before the whole debacle. I expect a 40 wRC+ in 120 PA this year

Brad Johnson: distractions, no spring training, it’s going to be ugly

Corky: Should I be worried about the lack of Ks from Stroman?

Brad Johnson: Not sure worried is the word, but it’s real

Brad Johnson: he’s a good pitcher with a low-ish K rate

Brad Johnson: it can hurt

Sweet nectar : Predicted date, if any, that Hector Neris takes over as closer for the Phillies?

Brad Johnson: Whenever Gomez strings together a few bad outings

Macho: Some numbskull dropped alex gordon in a 12 team 10 player keep forever.

Brad Johnson: Think he’s a top 120 player? I’m not so sure

Brad Johnson: I had to decide between dropping Duda and Gordon today. I dumped Duda

DONALD: How sustainable is Odubel Herrera’s 16% walk rate? Having a hard time valuing him in an OBP league.

Brad Johnson: 16% is not sustainable, but the underlying skills will stick around

Brad Johnson: pitchers will attack him more (already are) because his bat isn’t THAT potent

Brad Johnson: plus there’s no support to follow up if he does get a hit

Brad Johnson: but a 12% BB rate with a few more hits should follow

Brad Johnson: Love him in OBP

The Farthammer: Any tips on how to encourage trading in my dynasty league? we have so many teams that are just complacent.

Brad Johnson: In my experience, dynasties have a couple trading orgies a year. Ours has the midseason fire sale and the predraft December blitz.

Brad Johnson: Rule changes and/or better owners is probably the answer

Need Saves: Love the chats – they’re much appreciated! I have Kenley Jansen, Cingrani and Miller. I haven’t won a week yet in saves. The rest of my roster is pretty solid – do I trade Jansen for depth or hope Miller gets traded?

Brad Johnson: I’d look to add saves at the margins rather than trading them away

Brad Johnson: if you’re contending, you might be able to pick closers up cheaply in July

Brad Johnson: then you’ll be happy you have Jansen

Human Reyes: Word is Alex Reyes looked great in his AAA debut. Do you think he’s the first of the big starting pitchers to get called up (Reyes, Urias, Glasnow, Giolito, etc.)?

Brad Johnson: He still has too many command issues

Brad Johnson: so no, I don’t think he’s first

Pablo the Pug: S. Gray, Harvey, Archer, or Keuchel for ROS?

Brad Johnson: Woof. Archer easy

Mike: Wouldn’t the Yankees rather keep Miller on a 1-year deal and deal Chapman instead?

Brad Johnson: Maybe, but I think they’d rather have Chapman

Brad Johnson: they acquired him to assess him as a long term signee

Oliver: Keuchel. Woof. I know his value is about -1,000 right now, but in a more or less “novice” league, does his name carry aany value at all? Hate to drop him but hes literally costing me wins in a points league

Brad Johnson: You can cut in a novice league

John C.: Brad, 14 team league, what are some veteran starters you would target to acquire by selling VV? He will be a 14th rounder going into next year.

Brad Johnson: Something like Lester or Quintana

Jack: Did I do okay…$35 Abreu for $0 Nola $2 Castellanos and $3 T. Walker in a 10 team keeper league.

Brad Johnson: I like it assuming there isn’t a low limit on keepers

Nick: How about Chris Hermann? Poor hitter up until this point, but his batted ball profile is pretty impressive so far this year.

Brad Johnson: Yea I keep looking at his page. Haven’t seen him hit yet somehow. Should just pull up an archive game

the butcher: Should Clayton Kershaw be regarded as the #1 player in fantasy baseball the rest of the way?

Brad Johnson: It’s hard to ever give a pitcher that credit in a normal league.

Brad Johnson: Harper and Trout are 5 cat monsters, but Kershaw can run away with four cats

Brad Johnson: it’s a close call

Brad Johnson: in ottoneu FGpts, it’s Kershaw by a landslide

Nacho: Weiters or Grandal in OBP league?

Brad Johnson: Love Grandal in OBP

Brad Johnson: just keep an eye on health

KD: I traded Giolito and Dahl for Lester and J Baez in NL only keeper to win now. Am I ok?

Brad Johnson: You’ll be sad later, but that’s the price you pay to turn no stats into a star and a core player

Nacho!!!: I am leading in my Dynasty keep forever. I was offered Joc Pederson and Julio Urias for my Cutch, what do you think? I am pretty light on young players

Brad Johnson: It’s a good time to shop Cutch even if you don’t take that specific offer

Brad Johnson: And i do think you can consider that. I might try to add two more players on your end then ask for a good third from him

David: Traded Chris Carter for Adam Jones in an OPS league. How did I do?

Brad Johnson: I like it. Though I expect them to be pretty comparable ROS

Bartleby: Christian Yelich … was just on the verge of acquiring him in a deal involving Heyward, who has looked awful, and then Heyward got hurt. And then Yelich got hurt. Back injury seems to be chronic with Yelich. Would you run away screaming?

Brad Johnson: Yelich is never going to fix his batted ball profile

Brad Johnson: seriously caps his ceiling

Brad Johnson: so yeah, no need to stick around that talk

Brad Johnson: ok wrapping up

Lefty-righty: With one year left of control for both guys, would you trade away Kazmir to get Zack Wheeler in an NL-only 5×5 keeper league?

Brad Johnson: yes

The Farthammer: how do i say “bro, your team sucks you need to play for the future.” Or can I just not “fix stupid”

Brad Johnson: Always tricky. I use lines like “I assume you’re starting to look toward the future” then make up some math to go with an offer that looks very favorable next year

Brad Johnson: if he’s a guy who doesn’t believe in fantasy rebuilding – which is usually a valid perspective – then you’re SOL

L Nygaard: Need help in batting average. Am I crazy to start Hanley over Rizzo?

Brad Johnson: Yes

Mike Scott’s Splitter: Polanco or Puig in keep forever?

Brad Johnson: Polanco

Mike Scott’s Splitter: Eaton or Puig in keep forever?

Brad Johnson: Um…that’s tougher

Brad Johnson: I’ll say Puig

Brad Johnson: no conviction

Brad Johnson: And that’s the ball game. It’s been a pleasure as always. See you next Tuesday.

Brad Johnson: I’ll still be wheezing wood smoke out of my lungs from a camping trip.

Brewers Manager: Do you believe in Adelmys diaz?

Brad Johnson: VERY BELIEVE

Brad Johnson: seriously though, he’s maybe a better Joe Panik

Garth: You need to chat forever like Sporer.

Brad Johnson: need?