Brad Johnson Chat 5/7/2019

Brad Johnson: We’ll get started in a few moments

Syndergaardengnomes: At what point do you give up on Votto?

Brad Johnson: When he suffers a major injury

Brad Johnson: Certainly, we should adjust the expectations

Brad Johnson: He’s a core performing 1B with potential to turn hot. Kind of like a better Mitch Moreland

Brad Johnson: That’s still startable in 12-team mixed.

Brad Johnson: The power is probably gone, but I think the walks and Ks will regress

Brad Johnson: And as I pointed out elsewhere today, you don’t need power to hit 20 home runs at GABP

Siri: When will we see Yordan Alvarez in Houston?? Before the super 2 deadline?

Brad Johnson: The biggest barrier to Alvarez’s promotion is the lack of competition in the AL West. Houston isn’t taking Seattle or Texas seriously, and LAA/OAK have losing records

Brad Johnson: He would be up now if they had any pressure to improve.

Brad Johnson: I think he’ll be up in June or July at this rate. They’ll want time to figure out their best roster for the postseason (and to develop their future plans).

Brad Johnson: Presently, a promotion would involve discarding a player.

Dan: Travis Shaw: K’s up, horrible babip. Is this the real Shaw or is a rebound possible/probable?

Brad Johnson: I honestly remain perplexed. I have no insight into this. None of the usual peripherals for “he got worse” are lighting up

Brad Johnson: He’s just stopped hitting pitches, especially in the zone

Brad Johnson: I dunno. I’m going to assume it’s mechanical or he has an undiagnosed head injury.

Brad Johnson: (the latter option is, hopefully, a joke)

Matt: Need to get a (potentially) temporary replacement for Iglesias. Do I bid up Givens, or you thinking Jackson has the job in ATL?

Brad Johnson: I’d rather try Jackson and be wrong than ever roster Givens.

Brad Johnson: Can also hope Buttrey suddenly gets some opps

Siri: Do you see Michael Chavis as a 25 homer, .340 OBP guy?

Brad Johnson: Smells about right

99: Is Gausman droppable in a 12 team?  He feels like a streamer to me.

Brad Johnson: He’s on the good side of the streamer pool. He might be available for months or somebody might decide to permanently roster him

Brad Johnson: Which isn’t a bad thing for you

NME17: Is Kyle Tucker worth holding on to?

Brad Johnson: Depends on the format.

Brad Johnson: Anything approaching dynasty, definitely.

Bob: Preference? Christian Walker or Daniel Vogelbach?

Brad Johnson: Vogelbach

mackel: Rank these 3 players: Michael Chavis, Jesse Winker, Franmil Reyes

Brad Johnson: Reverse order

Brad Johnson: Very close between Reyes and Winker

Brad Johnson: Chavis is a distant third

Brad Johnson: Reyes IS Khris Davis

Nick: Any hot start in particular that you are buying?

Brad Johnson: Hunter Dozier jumps out

Brad Johnson: Wish I had grabbed a few more shares

Pine Needles: Ketel Marte or Nick Senzel?

Brad Johnson: I’m a Marte believer myself. I like Senzel too, but I don’t think he’s going to meet expectations this year. Too much swing and miss.

Brad Johnson: The early profile was a patient, high contact guy. Now he’s vaguely patient and low contact.

Cosmo: Is Joey Gallo Khris Davis now?

Brad Johnson: Joey Gallo was always something different (and arguably better) than Davis

Brad Johnson: He would have needed to get worse to become Davis.

Matt #2: What are you doing with Taillon?  Waiting on second opinion?  Thanks!

Brad Johnson: I’m holding, but my shares happen to be dynasty where I’m liable to wait through the whole damned TJS if needed.

Steve: 12 team mixed: I need to cut Robles for Luke Jackson ASAP, right?

Brad Johnson: Uh, that’s a push imo. They’re both temp guys.

Brad Johnson: I’m not buying Jackson’s no fastball approach as sustainable. Not with his minus command.

Pine Needles: Franmil Reyes or Nomar Mazara?

Brad Johnson: So EZ Franmil

Brad Johnson: Did I mention he IS Khris Davis

Bob: Do you think Puig will come around or would you be more interested in Franmil Reyes for ROS?

Brad Johnson: I think Puig will rebound, and I prefer Reyes.

Twins: Have the Twins become a line-up to avoid with streamers? Have a couple blue jays (Sanchez, Thornton) that I’m thinking of sitting.

Brad Johnson: For those sorts of streamers, yes, I’d avoid

Brad Johnson: A class level up, you can use (i.e. Gausman, Archer)

yojiveself: someone dropped Darvish.  worth a pickup in hopes he figures out the walks a bit?  I could drop Peacock.

Brad Johnson: eh, I shouldn’t have clicked this one

Brad Johnson: I don’t have an opinion 🙂

Brad Johnson: You can stash Darvish, stick with Peacock, or check behind Door #3.

Brad Johnson: They’re all low value dart throws with some upside.

Slurve: What’s a good rule of thumb for (limited) production vs. consistent playing time?  and/or at what points do the daily starters lose value?  or is it more dependent on the fantasy scoring for each league….

Brad Johnson: Scoring definitely matters. For example, in ottoneu FGpts, I’ll often prefer a middling leadoff hitter to a better platoon bat.

Brad Johnson: The key, usually, is to focus on hitting your GP limits then worry about marginal quality upgrades.

Tommy Sells: Is Jesus Aguilar even worth grabbing off the wire in a dynasty league at this point?

Brad Johnson: Definitely.

Brad Johnson: He’s a pretty obvious hot and cold hitter. And he’s shown a little life lately.

Pine Needles: I have both Yandy and HDozier, hoping one of their breakouts stick. Which should I be starting every day?

Brad Johnson: Dozier.

Brad Johnson: Can pop Diaz in against high fastball pitchers.

B: Who to start as my OF3? FReyes, or DSantana? Have Blackmon and Marte.

Brad Johnson: Easy. Reyes when he’s in, Santana when he’s not.

Brad Johnson: What’s with all the Reyes heat today?

Theodore: Would you claim a $16 Robbie Ray just dropped in Ottoneu FGpts if it ate up all of your salary room?

Brad Johnson: Maybe? Depends on my needs and how Ray might meet them.

Moltar: Middle-reliever-with-SP-eligibility, do you like Gant or Urias ROS?

Brad Johnson: Urias more

RMR: Is Senzel in the OF for the long haul?  Or is he back in the infield next year?

Brad Johnson: Probably super utility. But it depends on some of the other guys coming through the system.

Matt: What is to make of Bryce Harper?

Brad Johnson: I dunno, he seems just like Bryce Harper to me.

Brad Johnson: Did you click the article above the chat window? Harper’s a classic peaks and valleys guy.

Brad Johnson: Let’s not forget, he had a screwy spring too

Pls Help: He’s *SOOO* Close

Zumba: Any reason to suggest La Stella’s power is sustainable?

Brad Johnson: Sorta kinda

Brad Johnson: Like this isn’t exactly unprecedented for him

Brad Johnson: The better question is… can he continue to walk nearly twice as much as he strikes out

Brad Johnson: The Angels in general don’t. strike. out.

Chris Jacoby: C Seager or K Marte (is this for real?)

Brad Johnson: You’re really testing me. If Seager wasn’t batting second for the Dodgers, I might say Marte.

Brad Johnson: Put ’em both on the same roster and lineup slot, I prefer Marte.

Brad Johnson: He’s a better athlete and his offensive profile has caught up to Seager’s slumping one.

Shaun: Mallex Smith going to come back up and be valuable again? or was last year a fluke?

Brad Johnson: https://www.patreon.com/posts/26502723

Brad Johnson: So I noticed a few things about the Mariners schedule when they demoted him. He’s hitting well in Triple-A (mucho small sample). I expect him back in short order.

Nolan: Mike Minor:  hold or stream in shallow 10-team?

Brad Johnson: I lean stream, but he’s going to get snapped up if you send him back to the wire.

Weenie: Do u think Robert Stephenson could pick up save opportunities? Also, do u think he could transition back to the rotation and be effective there if the need arises? Thanks!

Brad Johnson: Saves are far more likely than effective rotation work

Brad Johnson: Maybe he could Open or Follow. But that’s hard to do in the NL.

Brad Johnson: I forgot, I meant to use OOTP to make a video about that…

Bob: lorenzo Cain is hurt now and was off to a slow start, do you believe he will rebound or is age slowly creeping in?

Brad Johnson: Both?

I heart beisbol: How much longer until Hiura gets called up to replace Shaw

Brad Johnson: Hiura’s Triple-A performance is rather mixed. I don’t think he’ll do as well as people expect. Like I’d be surprised if he wasn’t crushed by MLB pitching

Brad Johnson: Maybe good outcomes with a 35% K rate?

Brad Johnson: So I’m not sure how eager the Brewers will be to promote him. Comes down to what their own analytics guys are saying.

Siri: Do you think VanMeter earns anything close to full-time ABs?

Brad Johnson: I’d like him to at least get a couple weeks just to see if he can make something of it.

Brad Johnson: He was awfully Scooter Gennett in Triple-A (the good kind of Scooter)

Jim: Soria worth holding with a free spot till we hear about treinen?

Brad Johnson: Yea, Trivino first probably.

G: With Olson coming back today I have to drop someone.  Do you think Brian Dozier is drop worthy in a 12 team dynasty?

Brad Johnson: Yea, I prefer Olson to Dozier if that’s the question.

I heart beisbol: Sooo still better than Shaw?

Brad Johnson: That’s tough to say

Brad Johnson: Shaw is befuddling. I’d like to see a phantom IL stint to get him some easy minors ABs

Brad Johnson: I’ll be back in a minute.

Brad Johnson: ok back

Daro: Chavis for Musgrove? 12 teams 10 keepers league

Brad Johnson: Chavis is a better long term asset, Musgrove is a much harder to fill type of asset

Brad Johnson: It depends on the state of your roster and needs. A keep 120 league is shallow enough that you shouldn’t be thinking about keeping either of these guys.

Brad Johnson: You can hem and haw about keeper value with the top 25 or so guys, after that, just get what you need right now and deal with the consequences later. The opportunity cost is small.

Rosebud Basselopes : Hey Brad, who you prefer ROS, Spencer Turnbull or Yu Darvish?

Brad Johnson: Oof. That’s a hard hitting shot.

Brad Johnson:

yojiveself: with legalized sports gambling growing are you going to migrate towards that or will you stick with DFS?

Brad Johnson: This might not be a popular opinion around here, or from a DFS guy, but sportsbetting is gross.

Brad Johnson: DFS is kind of gross too. 16% rakes as an industry standard? Really?

Brad Johnson: It’s an entirely online industry, the rake should be like 2.5%

Quadrangular: relatedly, will Voit’s playing time suffer with Stanton and Judge back in the mix, or is it mostly dependent on performance? I’m thinking if he continues to hit like this he maintains full-time play

Brad Johnson: Pretty much has to play at this point. Outperforming Stanton at the very least.

FrankieBones: What should we expect out of Sano? Better than Shaw?

Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t expect it

Brad Johnson: Hope for, certainly, but Sano was as bad as current Shaw before injury, and he actually always looked like that guy

Brad Johnson: Current Shaw could magically morph into 2016-2018 Shaw

Brad Johnson: We can hope 2019 Sano is actually 2018 Sano who was really bad luck 2016-2017 Sano. That gets confusing pretty quick

Do You Wanna Build A Stroman?: Haven’t bought the new version but OOTP seems like it misses on opposing GM trade offers and trade values in general. Did these improve in the new game?

Brad Johnson: They’re not… great… at trades

Brad Johnson: Very Dave Stewart

Brad Johnson: They do have a hard mode where the computer basically forces you to overpay in every move, but you can still do it in a way that is strongly in your favor

Brad Johnson: My recommendation is to force yourself to role play it

Brad Johnson: Trade a prospect for an expiring veteran stud rather than 30-year-old minor league contract veterans.

Brad Johnson: Even if the computer would have taken less. You know what’s actually reasonable.

Alonso or nothing: Will P Alonso of first three weeks return?

Brad Johnson: Ebb and flow. You should have always expected the league to adjust. He’ll counteradjust.

PB: Have all the injuries and SP issues caused you to rethink strategy?

Brad Johnson: Honestly, I picked the wrong year to have this many teams. I can’t get out of the weeds long enough to do that kind of thinking

Brad Johnson: I’m just putting out fires constantly.

Slipped: H. Dozier is up for auction in my ottoneu 4×4. $15 bid isn’t crazy, is it? No surplus value, but nor is it an overpay, right?

Brad Johnson: Seems reasonable

vlad: Are you worried about my son’s slow start?  Maybe too much hype?

Brad Johnson: Nope, he looks comfortable enough to me. I pick him in DFS every day. He’s going to win me some money.

Oscar Mercado: Dear God when will Cleveland finally promote me?? It’s not like their outfield/offense doesn’t suck.

Brad Johnson: Nor is Mercado forcing the issue

Shaun: Why would the Padres trade high for Mejia and then not let him play? Makes no sense and a waste of a trade of Hand.

Brad Johnson: As a team, you’re constantly evaluating your resources. And you tend to get a surge of information only after you’ve acquired a guy.

Brad Johnson: I think perhaps they didn’t realize Mejia’s limitations. I have no question Hedges is a better all-around catcher.

Guest: seems like most of the analysts are dismissing a legit breakout for james mccann. i get the BAPIP isn’t sustainable but he’s knocking the cover off the ball, you see a path to a ROS top tem C?

Brad Johnson: I think we’re mostly just looking at a locked in hitter. I’m not sure he’s truly a breakout. More like that year Alex Avila was good for awhile. Then wasn’t anymore.

vader: who makes the bigger impact this yr and next…biggio or b Rodgers?

Brad Johnson: That’s a good question for the crowd!

Brad Johnson:

baseballdude: hunter dozier’s performance sustainable ROS?  have him as a rendon replacement and also dual eligible 3b/1b.

Brad Johnson: Well, sustainable is not the word I’d use. He’s not going to sustain himself as the third best hitter in the league by wRC+

Brad Johnson: He is a top 20 1B/3B

Shaun: Any hope left for Jansen? or keep randomly selecting others from the C scrap heap?

Brad Johnson: Depends on league depth and the heap

Brad Johnson: If you can grab McCann or Astudillo (if he was tossed), then try ’em

Brad Johnson: Chirinos maybe

Brad Johnson: Alfaro?

Brad Johnson: Once you get in the real pit of despair, you’re better off hoping Jansen comes around.

MM: Trade Harper for Trevor Bauer? My pitching is a mess.

Brad Johnson: Can do.

baseballdude: is it me or hearing Clevinger’s quotes about coming back “bigger and stronger” and wanting to touch 100mph worrisome?  sounds like Thor before he hurt himself seriously

Brad Johnson: It’s just talk until it’s not. I don’t love that he injured himself already by getting bigger and stronger though

Nate: Thoughts on Matt Carpenter RoS?

Brad Johnson: Same as my thoughts last year. He’s doing almost the exact same thing.

Brad Johnson: Doesn’t mean he’ll go mental again. But I’m not selling any shares.

Jason: Is Chris Paddack still on an innings limit?

Brad Johnson: Technically, it’s a little more complicated than an innings limit.

Brad Johnson: They might talk about it that way publicly, but it’s really more of a complex stress measurement.

NotBurtReynolds: He’s had a couple decent starts against bad teams, but are you worried about Nola at all? Good buy opportunity? I don’t think I’d get much of a discount price, but I think his slow start might at least make him available in my dynasty points league, where I have a lot of tradeable assets.

Brad Johnson: Not exactly worried. I’m seeing obviously worse command, and I suspect a mechanical issue.

Step-Twin Brother: Are you buying into Martin Perez as a top-50 starter?

Brad Johnson: Maybe fringe. I still think he’s much closer to bad than good.

Brad Johnson: But The Glob is scarier than ever before!

Brad Johnson: Time to start wrapping up. fwiw, my poll votes would have been Turnbull and Biggio. The crowd agrees by decent margins

Fangraph’s Lurker: hold on leclerc or drop?

Brad Johnson: I’m mostly holding

Brad Johnson: It’s not like Kelley is going to keep the job all year.

Brad Johnson: Leclerc will probably rediscover his splitter. Whether he also cuts the walks is a separate question.

Bonmp: Is Jeff McNeil just an empty batting average?

Brad Johnson: Well, yes. We knew this though.

Brad Johnson: He could produce some runs with the right lineup role.

HappyFunBall: Sitting Dahl in my daily (50% rain + LHP). Who do I start instead: Schoop, Asdrubal, or DDS?

Brad Johnson: Oof, that’s a sharp downgrade

Brad Johnson: I’d look for an excuse to use Dahl (i.e. stay on top of the weather)

G: Leclerc or Matt Barnes ROS?

Brad Johnson: Barnes, I guess

Bonmp: Can’t Franmil hit for a better avg than Kris Davis?  He has the skills to right?

Brad Johnson: Not really…

Franmil: Thanks for all the love today. I enjoy hitting home runs.

Jason: Re: Paddack. I guess what I’m asking is: should I sell high before I get to my H2H playoffs?

Brad Johnson: Certainly can look into it.

Moelicious: What is wrong with Givens? Good skills and a full time closer role.

Brad Johnson: Is he? He has only 4 saves in part because he’s frequently used in a way that makes him unavailable to close. He’s a roughly 4.00 ERA, 9.5 K/9,  1.15 WHIP reliever. I’d rather roster Ryan Pressly.

Pierre: Is Nathaniel Lowe worth a pick-up?

Brad Johnson: In most settings

Larry Hutz: Trade Devers at $15 for Ohtani at $18 in FGPTs?

Brad Johnson: It’s bold. You’re playing for something big in 2020 with Ohtani

Mary Yost: Any thoughts on rolling out the Rays duo Castillo/Alvarado in a deep format daily moves league? I tend to buy lots of committee bullpen arms, currently 4 part time closers, in this format and just rotate in my starters based on matchups.

Brad Johnson: I have several Alvarado/Castillo pairings

Brad Johnson: And a bunch of solo Castillos because he was MUCH cheap on draft day for the same projection.

BrokenBatSingle: Can you explain to me how DFS is less gross than sports betting?

Brad Johnson: If you try hard enough, you can turn DFS into a fun game with a few dollars on the line. For example, my Daily Grind Invitational is $2 entry, guaranteed prize pool, and no rake. We get occasional overlays (meaning the site pays out more than they take in).

Brad Johnson: Now, the site does this because they’re betting TDGI entrants will also play in their normal GPPs which have normal rakes.

Brad Johnson: But if you just stick to the TDGI, it’s not really any different than a $100 fantasy league run by one of your buddies.

Brad Johnson: It’s just played a little differently.

Barry: Thoughts on a speculative play on Cubs bullpen?  Kintlzer or Cishek a better add?

Brad Johnson: I like Cishek more

Brad Johnson: I’m not sure what Joey Mads likes these days

K: What are you doing with your Kluber and Taillon shares? I cant bring myself to drop (redraft)

Brad Johnson: I’m waiting for a little more information

Brad Johnson: It helps that I don’t have valuable alternatives at the moment.

Bobo: Do you think Eric Fedde has a good shot at a rotation spot this year?

Brad Johnson: Definitely not, they’re converting him into a full time reliever.

Brad Johnson: Was announced a couple days ago

Trevor: Is there any reason I should not be buying Paul Dejong’s next step? More walks, fewer Ks, power could have room to grow…

Brad Johnson: Be careful assuming he’s more than modestly improved.

Brad Johnson: But that’s still a useful asset with the way they’ve been using him

Bring Back deSpaniel Hair: Is it mental to think I should try and flip Freeman for Snell or Bauer? Pitching is just so awful this year and Ivan fill with Alonso at first

Brad Johnson: Not mental, you’re making an attempt to address a problem with a strength

Brad Johnson: It’s trading 101

Brad Johnson: It’s just scary when we’re talking a Freddie Freeman for a pitcher

Brad Johnson: I assume this is redraft

Brad Johnson: It’s easier to shrug away this kind of move if it backfires in redraft. You’ll be kicking yourself for half a decade in dynasty

Brad Johnson: I remember one year I traded peak Kershaw for peak Stanton. Then 2 days later Stanton had a season ending injury. It’s not always pitchers who leave you screwed.

HappyFunBall: re: Fedde, he was just called up today … as a reliever to replace Tony Sipp (DL)

Brad Johnson: On that note, I’m tossing in the towel. Good game folks.