Brad Johnson Baseball Chat – May 2, 2017

Brad Johnson: So what shall we discuss today? There’s always a couple recurring questions.

Dr. Met: I’m very bad at my job….

Brad Johnson: As good a topic to start with as any. The Mets seemingly have no capacity for managing their medical issues

Brad Johnson: They have the same problems as every other team, but they always make themselves look so hapless

rustydude: With Thames’ impending OF eligibility in Ottoneu, who are some good 1B/Util upside plays to replace him with? I have Reynolds & Carter rostered but they’re part-timers. I put in a bid for Valbueno. Any other suggestions?

Brad Johnson: You probably aren’t going to find instant gratification on the wire. You may even be better off leaving him at utility. So many interesting outfielders available.

PK: I have to cut one of Grossman or Chisenhall in my deep AL-only league. Which one gets the boot?

Brad Johnson: I vote for Grossman.

Evil Goatee Brad: Who are you targeting while selling high on Aaron Judge?

Brad Johnson: Treat him as if he’s exactly the same as Giancarlo Stanton.

Chris: whats the outlook like on Chad Kuhl Brad? 3.50 era with a K rate of 6/9 and a walk rate of 3/9 realistic or optimistic?

Brad Johnson: 6 K/9 and 3 BB/9 does not a 3.50 ERA make.

Brad Johnson: That’s like a 4.75 ERA

Brad Johnson: I think Kuhl can maintain a sub 4.00 ERA with unsexy peripherals

Texas Dolly: When the dust settles, does Deshields come away with the LF job in Texas?

Brad Johnson: His performance will dictate. He’s being given a clear opportunity but it’s up to him to, uh, run with it.

Chin Music: Start Sonny today?

Brad Johnson: Oh god no.

Joey: Do you expect to see Berrios called up on Saturday when the Twins need a fifth starter?

Brad Johnson: Yessir

John: in a 12 team mixed league, drop any of betances (holding just for ratios), daniel norris, alex wood, j. montgomery, or archie bradley (holding for ratios and as a speculative starter/closer) for senzatella?

Brad Johnson: Norris is the most cut-able imo. And no, Senzatela isn’t worth it.

Brad Johnson: phone!

Alex wood: Hey there, will I stick around in the rotation? I look pretty good other than one game where control was an issue?

Brad Johnson: In the short term, yes

Brad Johnson: we’ll see long term

Brad Johnson: his velo is up, he’s getting whiffs and grounders

Brad Johnson: he looks like a real fantasy asset

Nathan: Rougned Odor…poor approach catching up to him or just a slow start? We’ve seen this from him before but it’s now been over a month…

Brad Johnson: I’ve always been very publicly worried about this. He’ll pick it up at some point.

JRuby: Are you buying Scott Schebler as a legit OF option in points leagues going forward, and how worried should Schebler owners be about playing time going forward?

Brad Johnson: I’m buying big time. Sent Neil Walker for him today

Brad Johnson: Fly ball rate is up, hard contact is plus

Brad Johnson: That’s a recipe for 30 HR easy at GABP

Ray: Bregman or Rendon ROS? OBP, XBH instead of AVG, HR

Brad Johnson: Rendon. It was always Rendon. I’m not getting distracted by…

Brad Johnson: oh! http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/73497276/v1339840883/?query=rendon

Bell: do you like judge?

Brad Johnson: smiley face, aubergine, umbrella

Jason Vargas 2.0: What do you think of this trade: Sale+Bellinger for Villar+Peraza?

Brad Johnson: woof, that’s a lot to unpack.

Brad Johnson: So Sale is in god mode. But pitcher spontaneously die. Bellinger’s ticketed back for the minors. Villar looks worse, Peraza looks worse, but both could easily rebound

Brad Johnson: If you need SB desperately, go for the steals. Conversely, if you’re flush with SB, take Sale

Danimal: Aaron Judge or Khris Davis ROS? (OBP league)

Brad Johnson: Gonna opt for the hot hand. Probably a good either or tho…

Brad Johnson:

Yankee Doodle: How much longer do the Yankees keep rolling out Bird if he continues to struggle?

Brad Johnson: ZERO DAYS!

Brad Johnson: He’s on the disabled list as of a few minutes ago

Amed Rosario: With all of my organization’s seeming dysfunction, how soon before I am called up to try to make everyone forget?

Brad Johnson: I’m not under the impression that Rosario is anywhere near the MLB plans. Aside from maybe a short peek like we saw with Jesse Winker

BarryBaker: Does Joey Gallo reach the 35 + home run threshold with a 13% and a 30% K rate with an avg of .225?

Brad Johnson: Seems likely, assuming nothing happens to his playing time if/when Beltre is resurrected

Johnny Bench: Man, Stephen Vogt was pretty bad in April. Any hopes of a turn around or should I be dropping him for one of Norris, Vazquez or Phegley?

Brad Johnson: What about Bandy or Hedges or Pina or Wolters?

Brad Johnson: If not them, then keep

Brendon: I could only keep one of Mookie and T. Turner as a keeper from last year and kept Mookie. Is that going to look like a mistake or will Mookie find his power stroke from last year?

Brad Johnson: That’s a shame. You’ll come out fine. Both will be monsters but Mookie should be more reliable

Bell: is thames a top 40 or 50 player?

Brad Johnson: That’s difficult to answer. I think he’s right around there

Brad Johnson: I’ve tried to trade JUpton+ for him and been laughed at

Brad Johnson: so his owners think he’s top 25

Bell: is mazara a top 25 OF?

Brad Johnson: Not yet. Hopefully some day

Barry: Nomar Mazara or Aaron Judge in a dynasty pts league?

Brad Johnson: I’m a sucker for the guy who’s doing it now. Mazara’s head is above water but Judge is walking on it

Ryan: I assume you’ll get a few Joe Ross questions, but what to do? I have Ross (and Moore) at the bottom of my rotation and thinking of streaming seeing what Morton and Straily can do going forward. Thanks.

Brad Johnson: Charlie Morton is a better pitcher than Joe Ross

Brad Johnson: Y’all on some Joe Ross drug juice. He was always a super high risk, modest reward play

Brad Johnson: Notice I said nothing kind about Dan Straily

dee’s nuts: Will Dave Roberts let Urias pitch enough innings to have relevance in a QS league or will he more likely than not take him out after the 5th?

Brad Johnson: Probably not. That’s how you get 28 starts out of him plus playoffs without blowing up his innings

Don: is Corbin to be trusted in mixed league?

Brad Johnson: Trust? Pat Corbin? Hell no. You can stream him with extreme anxiety

Danny Duffy: Looking to get out of my Duffy share — is Giles for a saves needy team enough for you?

Brad Johnson: I think so. Might ask after a Cody Allen first. Somebody with elite numbers who isn’t perceived as elite.

Brad Johnson: Giles does fit that bill, but he’s not my first choice

spencer: provide me with a buy low and sell high candidate please.

Brad Johnson: to the leaderboards I shall go

Brad Johnson: Sell Sano. I love him and he’s going to continue doing big things, but not with a .450 BABIP. He and Gallo may look very similar RoS, but you can probably get twice as much in return for Sano.

Brad Johnson: Curtis Ganderson is such an obvious buy low. Eduardo Nunez if you need swipes

Jim-Bob: Is Ervin Santana the biggest sell-high candidate in history?

Brad Johnson: ha. If you can sell Ervin Santana without getting laughed out of the room, I’d be impressed

Lance: Kid DeShields a 10-teamer yet for his SB upside alone?

Brad Johnson: If you desperately need SB. Otherwise, no

Brad Johnson: stream him on Thursdays

Lars: Yuli Gurriel has a nice BA but nothing else. Still a CI consideration for you in 10-team?

Brad Johnson: Sounds a little thin for using Yuli.

Zimmerman: If I’m healthy the rest of the way *BIG IF* am I a top 10 first baseman in standard leagues?

Brad Johnson: Possibly. It’s a top heavy position so there are some big names to shoulder past

Sean: Josh Harrison has already matched 2016’s and 2015’s HR total (4). Anything to see here?

Brad Johnson: I saw the first home run yesterday. It’s an out in almost every park. Except Yankee Stadium

Gregg: Do you really think L.A. is stupid enough to send Bellinger down? He’s looked fantastic!

Brad Johnson: They have too many players not to. It’s not like the team is hurting for wins. He’ll get another chance later

JB: Help me replace MadBum. Thoughts on Norris, Boyd, Wood?

Brad Johnson: WoodWoodWoodWood

Brad Johnson: scroll back for some notes

Pet: Is Leury Garcia any good?

Brad Johnson: Streamable.

Brad Johnson: That’s all

Quinn: Should I start Cozart over Story until Story does something besides strike out with the occasional HR

Brad Johnson: Story’s been terrible and still is a top 200 player

Brad Johnson: I’d keep playing him over Cozart

Brad Johnson: Maybe if you’re drowning in AVG…

Morking: Heyward and David Peralta on my wire in 12 man h2h traditional stats. Who do you like better?

Brad Johnson: Heyward might build trade value

Brad Johnson: pretty similar otherwise

Deep Leaguer: Charlie Morton check-in: I’m still in on this guy. High velocity, high groundball rate, solid mix… am I crazy to think of him as start-and-go fantasy rotation piece?

Brad Johnson: That’s how I think of him

Brad Johnson: I might be crazy too

Brad Johnson: He tends to run out of gas early

Boss Man: Is it wrong to get too excited about Gyorko at the moment? Look to sell high? love his positional flexibility on Yahoo.

Brad Johnson: He’s playing and has all that flex. “Excited” might be wrong, but he’s an excellent player to own

Morking: Is Urias a top 40 SP rest of season?

Brad Johnson: No. Short starts will steal too many Ws

Brad Johnson: Even if the rates were there

Moelicious: Joe Ross owner here. Do you prefer JC Ramirez, Zach Wheeler or Charlie Morton?

Brad Johnson: If your question involves Morton, he’s the answer

toki: Why are the Dodgers sending Bellinger back down when Joc returns? Why not have Bellinger usurp LF from Toles?

Brad Johnson: Toles has shown just enough to continue playing. They may option him instead, but I think they’ll ask Bellinger to work out a few of his kinks instead. Once Toles runs out of rope, then Bellinger will return. Or injuries.

Brad Johnson: It

Brad Johnson: It’s at least partially a matter of preserving depth. If you discard Toles prematurely then that’s one fewer player to call upon later

Zach: Got offered Kershaw for my Thames and Darvish. 10 team H2H points league, my positional needs are a wash. Which side?

Brad Johnson: Thames

Brad Johnson: if there was a decent second player in there with Kershaw tho…

Hannah Hochevar: Nate Karns: a couple low-run outings without K’s and a couple high-run outings with K’s (and walks). What’s an owner to do?

Brad Johnson: Own better players? Seriously though, I assume this is some kind of 14 team, AL Only format?

Boss Man: Gsellman had a couple of bad outings vs the Braves but giving up lots of singles/doubles along with no K’s. Am i right to hold on to him for a while longer? 12 team 30 man rosters

Brad Johnson: I’m still hopeful, but I’m also reducing him purely to streamer status

Brad Johnson: And I think yesterday was my last stream of him in awhile

Brad Johnson: There are injury red flags. I think Alex Chamberlain was talking about them earlier today…

Brad Johnson: Somebody was

Deal or No Deal: I’m in a 12 team nl only keeper. I went into this year keeping 7 hitters and 1 pitcher (R Hill). I obviously spent most of my draft dollars on pitching (Syndergaard, Cueto, Maeda, Gsellman). No surprise looking at that list I’m 3rd to last in pitching, but I am first in hitting. I have R Zimmerman at $6, should I try to move him for a Strasburg type? Or am I getting panicked too soon?

Brad Johnson: Now is definitely the time to act, but it’s important to maintain your strengths while doing so

Zimmerman: Who ends up with most SV this season: Norris, Bedrosian, Street?

Brad Johnson: I guess I have to vote for the healthy guy? I want it to be Bedrosian

Luck Dragons: When healthy, there are __ SP I would start over Rich Hill.

Brad Johnson: Couple dozen? I don’t maintain a list in-season

Brad Johnson: I get a lot of questions about where so and so would rank

Brad Johnson: If you follow my work at all, you know I happily ignore all rankings including my own

Twoseamers: Saturday Twins starter – how bout Nik Turley

Brad Johnson: Could be. I’m not very invested in which probable disaster pitches for MN

Brad Johnson: By all means, snag up some shares to speculate

Brad Johnson: Berrios or Turley. Don’t go pinning your hopes on them

Rob: Help! Surely lackey won’t continue to give up 23% HR/FB but he’s getting hard contact a career high 36% of the time? Time to start looking on the wire or hold tight with K% and BB% near his career norms?

Brad Johnson: Depends on your wire. Probably should hold tight. Lackey’s a weird asset because he’s average or slightly worse across the board. You need volume so he still has value

Vinny Chase: Chuck Morton or Hector Santiago for the double start next week?

Brad Johnson: I’m not going to say it…

Angels fan: Anything to get excited about with J.C. Ramirez?

Brad Johnson: Other people are getting excited, I’m not. He’s been terrible for so long and doesn’t look any different to me

Brad Johnson: seek out second opinions

Dan: what do you think of suarez?

Brad Johnson: I’ve been his biggest supporter. He’s one of those guys whose fantasy numbers exceed the visible talent

Mallex P. Keaton: I hear you on Harrison, but he’s hot and hitting leadoff at GABP… gotta play him against Feldman tonight, right?

Brad Johnson: Yessir

Danaaaa: How are you feeling about Michael Brantley? Any high-K SP’s you would target if you’re selling high?

Brad Johnson: Feeling good, but he’s not going to join the home run revolution. Cuts into his value

Brad Johnson: Maybe this guy?

Cru Jones: What is your panic meter at for Carlos Martinez right now?

Brad Johnson: zero on a 1-10 scale

Quint: Sell me on D. Travis? Why should i trust him to rebound?

Brad Johnson: Good question, why should we trust Travis to rebound?

Brad Johnson:

Rickey: Hamilton and Gordon both stole 3 bases yesterday. Rickey like.

Brad Johnson: Very predictable in the case of Hamilton. Because Gerrit Cole. He’ll do it again tonight if Glasnow walks him

Birdtown: What is wrong with DJ LeMahieu? Is he a top 10 2b going forward?

Brad Johnson: With so much power at the position, I’m tempted to put him in the 10-15 band

Brad Johnson: I’ll look to see if I can identify an issue. I own no shares

Brad Johnson: A few too many GB at expense of LD. Sharp decline in oppo liners. I think it’ll all regress

Brad Johnson: He really shouldn’t steal bases so he might stop

Lance: Hernan Perez a 10-team grab?

Brad Johnson: If you need steals

RRH: Forgot to add to 1B-platoon question — Would it be crazy to deal Santana for an upgrade elsewhere? Guys like Pujols and Moreland currently available as FAs for another backup if need be.

Brad Johnson: If Pujols is free, go ahead and get something for Santana. They aren’t that different

Firemarder: Verlander is back to being a dud, right? I don’t care that his avg fb is all the way up to 94.7 mph.

Brad Johnson: He wasn’t great to start last year either

Brad Johnson: be patient

Luck Dragons: Morton or Kershaw?

Brad Johnson: Please. Morton.

Brad Johnson:

fresh basil: Where’s my Gregory Polanco?

Brad Johnson: rumors of a shoulder injury. I’ve only paid close attention for a few PA. Timing looks off

Brad Johnson: a sore joint would explain it

Bargain Hunter: Is it just me, or is Kendrys Morales’ power/RBI potential underappreciated in fantasy?

Brad Johnson: Chad Young and I traded Prince Fielder for Kendrys, David Robertson, and somebody else non-trivial 2 years ago

Brad Johnson: our thought process at the time it was offered to us “isn’t Morales the same as Prince?”

Brad Johnson: That comp didn’t age well 🙂

Moltar: Mr. Morton is the subject of my sentence, and what the predicate says, he does

Brad Johnson: I don’t know what this is and in no way condone it’s appearance here

Brad Johnson: well, I clicked the green plus that makes it public which is a form of condonery

Reggie: Need pitching with Thor and Nola sidelined. Look to move Zimmerman for a Hamels/Tanaka type or pick up someone like Morton/Corbin for free instead?

Brad Johnson: I’d lean on the free options first

JC at the Bat: NL only dynasty league – Currently in 1st place, just lost Eaton and my pitching is patched together with Corbin/Wood/Blach/Melancon/Kelley – What do I do with Bellinger? Upgrade pitching now, or see how it plays out?

Brad Johnson: Shop for something massive. If it’s not there, hang tight

Lyle: Drop DJ for Gyorko? 10-team H2H w/ OPS

Brad Johnson: I think not

Brad Johnson: unless you need +20 HR over all other categories

Tanner Roark: Use me in AZ tonight? 12t roto w a hard inning cap.

Brad Johnson: I would not use you at rock hard Chase Field

Brad Johnson: I would use you in D.C.

Brad Johnson: And that’s where you play today

Edubs: Re: Urias – worth holding him in a dynasty league? It’s QS, but I can keep him forever and drafted him for $1 (10 team deep mixed).

Brad Johnson: Yes

KD: Sentzel, A. Rosario, Albies, R. Tapia, Happ, Alfaro- which guys will help me this year in NL only?

Brad Johnson: I’m most confident that we’ll see Alfaro playing regularly

Brad Johnson: the others don’t have a great path to PT, although the upside is perhaps higher

Moelicious: Other than the fact that he is throwing hard and he has a great offense behind him, what is there to like about Morton? His plate discipline numbers are below average. Below average swinging strike, chase and contact rates.

Brad Johnson: Great breaking ball which he’s pairing with some higher fastballs (hence the decline in GB rate). Plus or better command in the early innings. I’m hopeful he improves at holding onto it

Brad Johnson: There’s a chance he’s better used like Devenski

Billy Beane: How do you feel abour Kiermaier? I liked him but I’m ready to cut bait because of his K rate.

Brad Johnson: Always been kinda ambivalent

Brad Johnson: He’s somebody I’d like to stream, but he’s just good enough to stick on someone else’s roster if I cut him

Zorn: Are you holding Cotton in 12 team H2Hs?

Brad Johnson: Sure, absent alternatives

toki: Hypothetically speaking. If Bellinger went crazy and hits say 5 hrs with a .500+OB before they have to make a decision and Toles ends up at say.190OB. Would that change the outcome possibly?

Brad Johnson: Sure.

Prok McGok: ROS: C Seager or Lindor?

Brad Johnson: Lindor

Weezy: still high on Graveman? Some of his peripherals are looking shaky.

Brad Johnson: I did warn you he’s done this before to me. Always comes out of the gate looking like a monster. One of these years he’ll get it. Or his arm will die

Brad Johnson: I’m concerned

Prok McGok: If Bryce Harper played in Colorado or NYY, would you select him #1 in a re-draft over Trout?

Brad Johnson: No

Brad Johnson: but I would pick him #2

Jim-Bob: Tommy Joseph has X weeks left of rope before the Phils move on to Hoskins. Solve for X?

Brad Johnson: I don’t think Hoskins is the real threat

Brad Johnson: Aaron Altherr, via Howie Kendrick, is the threat

Brad Johnson: and Altherr is already making a bid for everyday PT

Brad Johnson: Hoskins isn’t on the 40-man roster, and the Phillies have a crowded 40-man

Brad Johnson: No matter how good he’s hitting, he’ll need a 60-day DL stint from someone to get a spot

Chip: How about a BJohnson hot take on Byung Ho Park? Thanks for chatting with us!

Brad Johnson: I can’t even muster a room temperature take

Brad Johnson: So as far as I’m aware, he’s rehabbing a hammy

Brad Johnson: any other reason why you want to know something about him? (I won’t see your response in the flood)

diadem: DeLarosa worth stashing as Rodney insurance?

Brad Johnson: This spelling made me think of Mark DeRosa

Brad Johnson: I own DeRosa in one of my fantasy leagues

Brad Johnson: it’s set in 2006

JRuby: Re Tommy Joseph, is it possible that the Phils send Stassi down, bring Quinn up, and platoon Saunders and Joseph at 1B?

Brad Johnson: Anything is possible.

Brad Johnson: I think it’s more likely Stassi will play more. He’s looked pretty playable.

Yoyoma: Thoughts on Jose Reyes and Carlos Gomez? Worth the hold, respectively? Hold Gomez over Margot and Reyes over Drury?

Brad Johnson: Reyes seems to be alive again. Definitely over Drury

Brad Johnson: I might got Margot unless you really need power more than speed

Brad Johnson: Margot’s lack of SB is a shocking disappointment

Brad Johnson: he was supposed to be an easy 25-30

Mallex P. Keaton: Worth firing up Klubot (@ DET), Quintana (@ KC), AND E. Santana (v OAK) tonight in a H2H league? On the fence about Ervin, but I like the matchup against weak OAK offense

Brad Johnson: I’d gamble on them all

Evil Goatee Brad: Mark DeRosa! Once traded straight up for Chris Archer and spare parts! 100 career home runs!

Bell: Could you be any worse at giving the people some answers?

Brad Johnson:

toki: As of today. What is your allstar vote looking like?

Brad Johnson: Jett Bandy! (Realmuto actually), Freeman, Murphy, Corey Seager, Bryant, Harper, Thames (yes, I’m cheating), and Braun

Brad Johnson: Does nobody play first base in the AL?

Brad Johnson: McCann, Santana, Ramirez, Lindor, Sano, Trout, Judge, Dickerson

Birdtown: Who would be your top 5 in fantasy right now?

Brad Johnson: Trout, Harper, Goldy, Bryant, and…either Freeman or Arenado

Porcho Villa: Grandal lurrrrves hitting ground balls. Do you think his power from 2H last year will come back?

Brad Johnson: His power’s still there

Brad Johnson: no average, some OBP, too many Ks, could lead all C in HR

Matt: You can build your team around one player under the age of 25 right now – so no Trout – who do you pick?

Brad Johnson: Harper I suppose. He’s instant marketing. I assume I get him for 10 years or something

Brad Johnson: Lindor’s the other pick

Joe: who’s the better stash in redraft: Brinson or Rosario

Brad Johnson: I’m having trouble answering this. Why did I pick it?

Rufus T. Firefly: What would it look like if you were worse at giving the people some answers?

Brad Johnson: See above

Brad Johnson: (Rosario)

Rufus T. Firefly: If your fingers started to hurt and you had trouble typing with them would you get an MRI or keep typing until they went sproing?

Brad Johnson: I’ve been typing through carpel tunnel for a decade…

wizard: Thoughts about Archer going forward (this season)? I’ve seen some pretty lofty projections but thus far he hasn’t matched what’s projected *and* he’s outperformed his peripherals. Would you trade Danny Duffy + Corbin to get him in a 13-team mixed 9*9?

Brad Johnson: I’d make that trade, but you’re looking at K volume with otherwise average numbers

Evil Goatee Brad: That National League team looks way better than that American League team.

Brad Johnson: I know right, give us something to watch AL

Lou: How do you rate Kevin Pillar? Over guys like Kiermaier/Peraza?

Brad Johnson: Yep

Brad Johnson: Specifically, I rate him by combing through his stat page at FanGraphs.com

Brad Johnson: It looks like he’s healthy which was a problem last year. Remember, he was a sleeper entering 2016 before he kinda sucked

Guest: Thoughts on Jordan Montgomery?

Brad Johnson: Rich Hill with more pitches and less figured out

Ombudsman: help!!

Brad Johnson: And on that note, I’m closing this shindig down. Last couple then a lightning round

Matt: Short list of hitters right now who have lots of upside who could be had dirt cheap?

Brad Johnson: Schebler, Alonso, Perez (Hernan)

will: thoughts on schwarber as a buy low candidate?

Brad Johnson: if you can anybody to admit he isn’t the top hitter in baseball, yes, buy

Bell: Are you soft? it seems like it

Brad Johnson: Like most people, I have soft spots and hard spots.

Josh: Inciarte, outside shot at 15/30?

Brad Johnson: Yes

toki: What’s more entertaining to you:

A. A towering HR.

B. A multiple Error in the park HR.

C. Prince Fielder’s in the park HR with the Brewers.

Brad Johnson: C

doot: please make this poll thanks
1. Grapes
2. Raisins
3. Both are disgusting

Brad Johnson:

Joe: Corbin fair return for Margot in an NL only?

Brad Johnson: Keep Margot

Adam: Expect anything from Orlando Arcia in NL-Only, or move on?

Brad Johnson: he’s good enough for the format

Josh: Bundy droppable in 12 team mixers given lack of K’s?

Brad Johnson: no, keep

Adam: Denard Span – done?

Brad Johnson: yep