Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 9/19/2017
by Brad Johnson
September 19, 2017
Here’s today’s chat transcript. We covered a entire slew of interesting topics. That’s right, a slew.
| 3:59 |
: Good afternoon folks. Let’s save keeper questions for the offseason and focus on the remainder of the season.
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| 3:59 |
: How many points can I realistically make up in the last two weeks of FGPts if my competitor and I both have innings and games to use?
|
| 4:00 |
: A superb week is something like 1,200 points – 700 for hitters and 500 for pitchers
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| 4:01 |
: A bad week is around 250 points (lots of negatives). So perfect coincidence gives you a 950 point upside. More realistically, probably about 300 points per week if almost everything breaks your way
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| 4:01 |
: Start McHugh/Marquez today? Junis/Chatwood tomorrow? 14tm H2h categories
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| 4:02 |
: Yes, pending need.
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| 4:02 |
: They’re playable, but if you don’t need them, then don’t risk your ratios
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| 4:02 |
: Do you trust Mike Leake today versus TEX?
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| 4:02 |
: Everyone asks if I “trust” somebody
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| 4:02 |
: Pitchers are NOT trustworthy in today’s game
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| 4:02 |
: not even Clayton Kershaw
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| 4:03 |
: maybe Corey Kluber
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| 4:03 |
: anyway, trust isn’t the issue
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| 4:03 |
: if you need categories that Leake can contribute to, then use him
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| 4:03 |
: if you don’t need anything, then don’t use him
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| 4:03 |
: easy peesy
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| 4:03 |
: Thanks for chatting Brad. You like Tyler Chatwood at San Fran tomorrow?
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| 4:03 |
: I very much do. I’m a Tyler Chatwood truther. Can’t wait to see what he signs for in FA
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| 4:04 |
: Need a 7th starter for this week: T Williams vs MIL tonight, Wacha @ PIT Fri, Manaea vs TEX Sat, E Santana @ DET Sat or Stroman vs NYY Sun
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| 4:04 |
: You have 3 really strong options there – Wacha, Erv, and Stroman. I’d probably do one of the latter two.
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| 4:04 |
: Because everybody is at risk of getting bumped with no warning, I’d probably play it safe and take Erv on Saturday. That way you can audible to Stroman if needed
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| 4:05 |
: Who’ll provide a better source of steals ROS? M. Taylor, D. DeShields, J. Reyes, or J. Peraza?
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| 4:05 |
: DeShields
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| 4:05 |
: if you only care about the one category
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| 4:05 |
: Reyes is probably the most useful in a vacuum
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| 4:05 |
: Brad, are you starting Paxton this week against the Rangers?
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| 4:05 |
: I sat him in my 20 team dynasty (using Buck Farmer and Brent Suter over him)
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| 4:06 |
: So i guess that’s a no
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| 4:06 |
: Need some middle infield help, im in the finals and I have Odor, Calhoun (Willie), and a resting Jose Ramirez. Who can I pick up at 2nd base for some steals and average? (10 team H2H)
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| 4:06 |
: Cesar Hernandez is the best fit
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| 4:06 |
: I assume he’s available in a 10 teamer
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| 4:07 |
: ian Kinsler could work
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| 4:07 |
: Yolmer Sanchez is neither of those is available. Although you might be better off taking a non-SB 2B and finding the swipes in the OF
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| 4:07 |
: If I were to pick up one RP for a SV/H league, who should it be? Bryan Shaw, Mike Minor, Tommy Hunter, or Ryan Madson?
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| 4:07 |
: Minor or Hunter
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| 4:07 |
: In a 6×6 with W, ERA, WHIP, SV, K/BB, K/9…should I start Clevinger tonight @ LAA?
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| 4:08 |
: Sure
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| 4:08 |
: Is Mike Minor worth rostering now that he’s being used as a reliever?
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| 4:08 |
: He’s a good RP. Might even get some saves.
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| 4:08 |
: I need Quality Starts while watching my ERA and WHIP…would you start Giolito in Houston today (I lean towards “no”)? I like him over the weekend against KC, however.
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| 4:08 |
: Agreed
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| 4:08 |
: So injuries have sunk my MI spot. Choosing between Happ, Marwin, and Asdrubal in a OBP/SLG league. How would you rank them ROS?
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| 4:08 |
: You’ve already got it
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| 4:08 |
: What are your thoughts on German Marquez? Is this kid legit?
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| 4:09 |
: Yes, but you have to avoid his Coors starts in most formats
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| 4:09 |
: Is McCullers droppable at this point? I have low confidence in him given his most recent outings (which aren’t that recent at this point), I don’t know when (if?) he’s going to start, nor how long they’ll let him go.
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| 4:09 |
: in redraft, definitely
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| 4:09 |
: stream stream stream
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| 4:09 |
: Is Devers worth keeping for $4 in an OBP league?
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| 4:09 |
: Depends on opportunity cost. That salary alone is great, but not if it prevents you from keeping a $1 Matt Olson
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| 4:09 |
: for example
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| 4:10 |
: This feels like peak Severino. I don’t think he will be worth paying the premium next year
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| 4:10 |
: I tend to agree with not buying high. But let’s see the ADP before we make up our minds
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| 4:10 |
: Would you continue to put a clearly hurt Beltre in your lineup, or roll with healthier options like Gregory Polanco or Nomar Mazara?
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| 4:11 |
: Are they actually healthier? Pretty sure they’re both banged – regardless of whether it’s been reported. I’d go Beltre
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| 4:11 |
: Who will start at catcher for the Dodgers next year, Barnes or Grandal?
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| 4:11 |
: Might be close to a 50/50 split
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| 4:11 |
: The nice thing about being the Dodgers is that they can have two starting quality C
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| 4:12 |
: In the championship of my H2H points leage, W, QS, IP, Ks…any good, widely available streamers you recommend? League is limited to three moves per week, already used one to get Godley from the WW (I had previously dropped him to stream someone else in the semi’s). Thanks in advance!
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| 4:12 |
: Hey Matt, as much as I’d like to help you with the biggest week, I think the details you’ve given me only emphasize that it would be inappropriate for me to offer advice.
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| 4:13 |
: Since you only have 3 moves and players like Godley are available, try looking for somebody who doesn’t belong on waivers (i.e. 80%+ ownership)
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| 4:13 |
: In an OBP league, Ozzie Albies or Howie Kendrick the rest of the way? Or his Albies’ current run a blip (I know it’s not sustainable long-term)?
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| 4:13 |
: I think I’d try to shoot the moon with Albies
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| 4:14 |
: Depends if you need a high floor or a high ceiling
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| 4:14 |
: Is Fulmer a top 20 pitcher next year?
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| 4:14 |
: Let’s see what comes of his surgery and recovery. I think he’s fringe top 10 when healthy
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| 4:14 |
: Hi Brad, I appreciate all the posts all year. So i have a tricky spot obviously here in the playoffs. My opponent has Sale, Verlander, Weaver, Greinke and he’ll only pitch them and his pen until he gets to the minimum innings. So today i have Godley and Anderson i think they’re good matchups. The rest of the week i have lament, duffy, and morton, perhaps a second anderson start. I have Chris Archer. In trying to keep only 4-5 starts, I really can’t trust Archer today right?
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| 4:15 |
: That is a tough scenario, and I don’t want to get blamed for things going sideways!
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| 4:15 |
: That said, when I run into an opponent with stronger pitching, I answer it with volume
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| 4:16 |
: I’d use Archer and anybody else you have getting a start. Take the K’s Ws and hope a ratio floats your direction
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| 4:16 |
: trying to match him arm for arm is a recipe for getting swept
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| 4:16 |
: At this point would you cut either Kendrys Morales or HanRam to play a hotter J Candelario?
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| 4:16 |
: I’d cut injured HanRam
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| 4:16 |
: Robbie Ray won’t be this good next year. But is he worth keeping for $5?
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| 4:16 |
: Why not? Robbie Ray is basically this good
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| 4:16 |
: He’s worth keeping for $25
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| 4:17 |
: Gausman was so good his last time out against Boston…he lays an egg tonight, right?
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| 4:17 |
: Seems to be the pattern. Treat him as a random number generator
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| 4:17 |
: Drop Miggy for Jose Martinez?
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| 4:17 |
: Ooh, I have to lean yes
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| 4:17 |
: Dynasty league, same cost, which side would you want to be on: Lindor for C. Seager?
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| 4:17 |
: Lindor please
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| 4:17 |
: I’m a sucker for 5 category studs
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| 4:17 |
: Is McHugh a big risk to be on a pitch count or reinjure his detached nail tonight?
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| 4:18 |
: Good point, I forgot about this. I doubt he’ll have a formal count, nor can I imagine him re-detaching whatever stub he has. But he might be lifted early if he’s uncomfortable
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| 4:18 |
: So the twins traded for Garcia then traded him to a rival so they could beat their ace with him??? Seems like a “worst trade ever” candidate.
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| 4:19 |
: The Twins double pivot was the most laughable moment of the 2017 season
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| 4:19 |
: at least from a front office perspective
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| 4:20 |
: The actual most laughable moment was the time the Tigers did two HR layups
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| 4:20 |
: That was Jose Ramirez hitting both times, right?
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| 4:20 |
: Anyway, the Twins also traded Brandon Kintzler for next to nothing during that span
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| 4:20 |
: I’m sure they’d love to have Garcia and Kintz back
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| 4:20 |
: You trust in the CarGo recent surge enough to pick him up and start him? 10 tm roto, I need HRs. Would be starting over E Rosario or Kiermier
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| 4:20 |
: Mix and match
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| 4:21 |
: mostly Cargo
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| 4:21 |
: Would you sell Sal Perez or Contreras this off-season in a keep forever league?
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| 4:21 |
: I’d hang onto Contreras unless you get a silly offer
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| 4:21 |
: Perez is going to start breaking down soon
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| 4:21 |
: so much mileage
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| 4:21 |
: Snell or AJ Cole this Sunday?
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| 4:21 |
: Snell
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| 4:21 |
: I have 5 closers right now… Holland, Ramos, Dyson, Neris, and Blake Parker. Drop one of these guys to have another streaming starter each day? If so, who?
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| 4:22 |
: If it has a bigger effect on your points than saves, then yes
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| 4:22 |
: One open pitcher spot for NL keeper league (standard categories). I can pick up one from M.Strahm, S.Brault, B.Stewart, A.Banda, H.Alvarez. Any thoughts?
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| 4:22 |
: Brault actually has a job. Was a big fan of Strahm entering the season. Haven’t deep dived anytime recently
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| 4:23 |
: Thoughts on starting Berrios tonight against NYY? In H2H semis and my instinct is to not gamble ratios (ERA, WHIP, K/9) against a good offense as erratic as he seems to be. Thoughts?
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| 4:23 |
: Agreed unless your need the volume and ace upside
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| 4:23 |
: My opponent has only one RP rostered, while I’ve been punting SV/H all playoffs. Because he only has 1 RP, should I try to counter and pick up a RP in hopes that I’d get that category?
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| 4:23 |
: If the right arm is available, yes
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| 4:23 |
: If im looking for a bargin bin catcher in 12 team, how would you rank like chirinos mccann pina barnhart
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| 4:23 |
: Just get Chirinos, he’s better than a bargain
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| 4:24 |
: I assume that’s James McCann. Stream him against LHP if you can
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| 4:24 |
: ignore the rest
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| 4:24 |
: Who would you keep in a dynasty league, Harrison Bader or Miguel Andujar?
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| 4:24 |
: Honestly, those are probably the same asset class. And since I own neither of them, I don’t have strong opinions.
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| 4:25 |
: Bader I suppose. I’m sucker for guys with MLB experience
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| 4:25 |
: I’m falling in ERA in my AL only roto. I still have Darvish, but he’s been real shaky lately. Start him? I’m not very close to the start limit (40 more starts left this season)
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| 4:25 |
: You’re allowed to start Darvish? That’s a really weird Only
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| 4:25 |
: Keep using him by all means
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| 4:25 |
: Matt Olson may save my season. What do you think of him next year? Is he a top-10 1B? Thames 2.0 (in that pitchers will figure him out soonish)?
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| 4:25 |
: Matt Olsen take me to the promise land!
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| 4:26 |
: He might be fringe top 10. The thing is 1B is looking ridiculously deep
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| 4:27 |
: Fortunately, he (and Hoskins) project to retain their OF status in most formats
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| 4:27 |
: exciting news!
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| 4:27 |
: Im concerned about Paxton’s velocity drop in his first start off the DL. Can you calm me down or no?
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| 4:27 |
: That you’re not starting Paxson against the Rangers makes me wonder: droppable in a re-draft?
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| 4:27 |
: I want to see a good outing. You might as well wait to see what happens before making your decision
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| 4:27 |
: There’s a chance I play someone next week in a H2H final whose only pitchers are 7 RP’s and Giolito. I have a loaded staff with Kershaw, Sale, Strasburg, and DeGrom among others, should if I play this guy, should I just focus on the best possible matchups and get over the 10 IP minimum, or just play my normal starts and not worry about my opposition?
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| 4:28 |
: Don’t get in your own head. Start the week out normally and adjust as needed. You’re guaranteed 2 of 5 categories. Lock those down then worry about ERA/WHIP
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| 4:28 |
: Hey Brad, should I pick up Fowler, Ellsbury, or DeShields this week? OBP & SB needed.
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| 4:29 |
: Fowler can’t stay in the damned lineup. Thinking DeShields might be best if you NEED SB
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| 4:29 |
: Brad, you’re much better at this than Sporer. He dropped the ball these last few weeks (short or cancelled chats) in this critical fantasy time. Thank you for all your help!
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| 4:29 |
: To be fair, I AWOL’ed for three or so in May
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| 4:29 |
: Story seems to be trying to rally the last week or two, but is he even going to be given the SS job full-time again next year? Will there be some competition there or will they just stick with him at least until Rodgers is ready?
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| 4:30 |
: I think he’ll basically start until Rodgers is around. Desmond may be given a chance to compete during the spring, but that shouldn’t be hard for Story to beat
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| 4:30 |
: For all the crap he’s gotten, Story has been a top 150 player
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| 4:30 |
: Not what we bought in round 4-5, but it’s not like he’s completely disappeared like Villar or Miggy
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| 4:30 |
: Best guess on Marlins closer next year..Claw, Ziegler, Steckenrider, someone else?
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| 4:31 |
: Ziegler
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| 4:31 |
: Is Trea Turner going to stop running now that the Nats have locked up the East?
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| 4:31 |
: Probably
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| 4:31 |
: Hi Brad, I would like to know please, what are 2 daily baseball stats that will Help a person’s Daily fantasy skills and chances? thanks
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| 4:32 |
: Pay attention to park factors and handedness platoons
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| 4:32 |
: Do note, platoons tend to be overstated
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| 4:32 |
: The advantage usually isn’t as large as it may appear – lots of bias in the samples
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| 4:33 |
: For example, there are an inordinate number of LHP who can’t throw to RHP. So a lot of apparent mashers are just taking advantage of those high value PA
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| 4:33 |
: What do you think the Red Sox should do with Brock Holt?
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| 4:33 |
: Non-tender him? Assuming they re-sign Nunez
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| 4:33 |
: Is Will Myers good at baseball?
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| 4:34 |
: Yes, very much so
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| 4:34 |
: but it turns out that MLB has 25+ good 1B
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| 4:34 |
: If opponent laid eggs early (Kershaw + Bundy) do you like to resist streaming guys or does it give you more power to do so?
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| 4:34 |
: Can cut both ways depending on your roster makeup and the actual stats involved
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| 4:34 |
: Which of Austin Hays, Teoscar Hernandez or Willie Calhoun start out in the majors in 2018…..and how do you think they’ll do?
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| 4:34 |
: All 3?
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| 4:35 |
: Hays and Calhoun are much hypier than Hernandez
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| 4:35 |
: I think Hernandez is a good backup OFer
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| 4:35 |
: Calhoun is the best of the bunch for fantasy purposes
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| 4:35 |
: I was floated a Lindor for Correa trade offer before the deadline. Did I mess up by declining?
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| 4:35 |
: Nah, that’s just a deal for the sake of making a deal
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| 4:36 |
: Can do, but you don’t have to
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| 4:36 |
: Is Matt Olson this ridiculous? Like is any of this real?
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| 4:36 |
: Check the HR/FB rate
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| 4:36 |
: Or in other words, no
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| 4:36 |
: He’s a good hitter though
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| 4:36 |
: Most Laughable moment is Tigers giving up JDM for nothing
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| 4:36 |
: Re: Chirinos. I love him too but have been hesitant to drop him for Welington Castillo. Who do you like better ROS?
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| 4:37 |
: I think I’d stick with Chirinos. Although if both are available, it sounds like you could stream matchups
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| 4:37 |
: There are a lot of low ownership platoon bats at the C position right now
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| 4:37 |
: Would you start Doug Fister for the Red Sox in the postseason?
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| 4:38 |
: Like if I was managing the actual Red Sox? No. Sale, Pom, Porcello
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| 4:38 |
: Unless I knew my opponent wrecked LHP
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| 4:38 |
: then I might flip Pom and Fister
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| 4:38 |
: Start Newcomb this weekend against PHL?
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| 4:38 |
: Can do. He’s always risky with his 5.00 BB/9
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| 4:38 |
: Mike Minor a good saves grab for championship week?
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| 4:39 |
: Not sure good is the word I’d use
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| 4:39 |
: Lot of competition in that pen
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| 4:39 |
: Decent gamble
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| 4:39 |
: You guys can keep Olson. I won the Bellinger/Hoskins sweepstakes. As in I got both 🙂
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| 4:39 |
: Congrats. Strangely, Hoskins was rostered super early in all my leagues
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| 4:39 |
: like since 2015 in a couple of them
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| 4:40 |
: Taillon just out of gas this season with all he’s been through?
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| 4:40 |
: I think so
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| 4:40 |
: Makes it easier for us to buy for $1
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| 4:40 |
: Looking for RBI from OF slot; Thames or Fowler? Neither are automatic starts for their respective teams and I’ve rostered them both at various points.
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| 4:40 |
: Assuming Fowler doesn’t get another injury, he’ll at least play 90%
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| 4:40 |
: Thames is playing less
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| 4:41 |
: which is probably the correct deployment to keep him fresher
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| 4:41 |
: Familia isn’t gonna get any saves this year, is he? Should I drop?
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| 4:41 |
: Yes. He’s terrible right now
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| 4:41 |
: Is Machado reverting to his early season slump, or do expect him to shake it again sometime this week? Bench him against Pomeranz if your next best option would be Devers @ Gausman? H2H playoffs, so looking for the hot hand, not long term.
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| 4:41 |
: Machado is weird because his peripherals looked so good even when he was slumping
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| 4:42 |
: I accidentally deleted something
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| 4:42 |
: moving on…
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| 4:43 |
: I’ve actually reached the end of the queue. This never happens. If you’re hanging around, we can actually banter a bit
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| 4:43 |
: What do you see Dom Smith doing ROS? Looks like he’s finding his stride.
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| 4:43 |
: I’m not expecting much RoS, but it is nice to see him finish on a strong note. That’s going to help his confidence heading into Spring Training, reducing the risk of him pressing and losing the job
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| 4:44 |
: That said, I’ve touched on how deep 1B is this year
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| 4:44 |
: Smith is very much at the bottom of the pile
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| 4:44 |
: His profile looks a lot better for 3 years ago
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| 4:44 |
: Do I dare start Archer tonight? What about Gausman?
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| 4:44 |
: I’m using him in DFS
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| 4:44 |
: I assume, I haven’t set lineups yet 🙂
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| 4:44 |
: Is there anywhere which shows which teams have allowed the most QS? League switching from W to QS….
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| 4:45 |
: I’m sure there is, but it’s not something I pay attention to. Try B-Ref
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| 4:45 |
: Going for my third win in a row in my 16-teamer – thanks for your help this season, Brad
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| 4:45 |
: good luck!
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| 4:45 |
: what’s altherr’s ceiling?
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| 4:45 |
: Well… I think he’s pretty maxed out, but that doesn’t stop a guy from making an adjustment and unlocking a new level
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| 4:46 |
: He’s a 20 to 30 HR guy who shouldn’t actually attempt SB against semi-competent catchers
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| 4:46 |
: Betts, Turner, Lindor – you get two for the next ten years
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| 4:46 |
: Oh god
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| 4:47 |
: Betts is ~25, Turner 24, Lindor ~24
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| 4:47 |
: The chat apparently doesn’t support tildas
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| 4:47 |
: Betts is nearly 25, Lindor nearly 24
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| 4:47 |
: I think I go Lindor and Turner
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| 4:48 |
: Which is bizarre because I’m still drafting Betts before them in redraft
|
| 4:48 |
: when does ozuna become an mvp contender?
|
| 4:48 |
: I don’t see that as a possible outcome in today’s league
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| 4:48 |
: He hit his ceiling this year
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| 4:49 |
: That said, it doesn’t hurt if you score 100 R and drive home 150
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| 4:49 |
: get him the proper lineup support and he could do it
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| 4:49 |
: i.e. send him to Colorado next year to bat after Blackmon and Arenado
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| 4:49 |
: Is there any reason to trust Johnny Cueto over his last few starts? Seems to be getting a few more whiffs now than before his latest injury. Seems like maybe the blister healing could have helped…
|
| 4:49 |
: Again, I hate this trust concept
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| 4:50 |
: I don’t trust Cueto to do anything
|
| 4:50 |
: but for DFS purposes, I love how far his price has fallen
|
| 4:50 |
: and for traditional fantasy, I don’t think we should expect worse than league average numbers
|
| 4:50 |
: Granted, that’s worse than a QS
|
| 4:50 |
: How would you rate the back end of the Diamondbacks rotation (Walker, Corbin, Godley) for the rest of the year for fantasy purposes, and where would you draw the line between must start and spot start with them?
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| 4:51 |
: Godley isn’t a back end starter
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| 4:51 |
: Always use him
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| 4:51 |
: He’s a top 25 arm
|
| 4:51 |
: Walker and Corbin are the kind of guys who give indigestion with every start but somehow finish with fine numbers
|
| 4:52 |
: that’s stressful for a H2H matchup, but I think you just use ’em and hope for the best
|
| 4:52 |
: Did you believe in Fister prior to 2 starts ago? If so, do you still?
|
| 4:52 |
: I’ve been back and forth on him. His velo is up a little which is nice
|
| 4:52 |
: he was good the last time he threw this hard
|
| 4:52 |
: which is still sub-90mph
|
| 4:52 |
: So long story short, I’ve recommended using and abusing him at times this year
|
| 4:53 |
: lately, it’s just “to use”
|
| 4:53 |
: Will Hanley be worth $15 in an al only obp next year?
|
| 4:53 |
: That seems like too much
|
| 4:53 |
: I do like him as a buy low
|
| 4:53 |
: but only if the cost is low
|
| 4:53 |
: Those were some subtle ~tildas~. Do you think Verlander remains elite next year?
|
| 4:54 |
: Seems like he’s entered an inconsistent phase of his career
|
| 4:54 |
: I think if the draft price is high, let someone else pay it
|
| 4:54 |
: then try to buy low if he struggles
|
| 4:54 |
: And if you own him, just ride the ebb and flow
|
| 4:54 |
: In those leagues where guys are grabbing players years before they debut. How much sorrow has Swihart caused owners?
|
| 4:55 |
: Not much. One reason I don’t really invest in prospects is that guys like Swihart are cut very quickly
|
| 4:55 |
: So many prospects need a year or two in the majors to hit their stride, but owners are only interested in instant gratification
|
| 4:56 |
: Whrere do you think Ohtani ends up? Does Darvish play any impact on where Ohtani signs?
|
| 4:56 |
: I doubt Darvish will strong affect O(h)tani
|
| 4:56 |
: seems like we’re using the H more now
|
| 4:56 |
: used to only see it spelled Otani
|
| 4:57 |
: Anywho, obviously seems like he’ll be in the AL where he can pitch and DH. Ironically, that means he may not hit on days he pitches
|
| 4:57 |
: Yankees and Rangers can offer the most money, reportedly
|
| 4:58 |
: but it’s such a small difference that it may not matter
|
| 4:58 |
: If I had to bet on one team, I’d be a fool not to say the Yankees
|
| 4:58 |
: Chase Anderson – the real deal or going to regress big time next year?
|
| 4:58 |
: Little of both. Miller Park is such a nightmare field for a pitcher of his skill set
|
| 4:58 |
: Is Eddie Rosario going to be something?
|
| 4:59 |
: He’s a 3.5 OFer – somebody good enough to start but you always want to replace him with better
|
| 4:59 |
: If he learns to be selective tho…
|
| 4:59 |
: David Peralta and Taijuan Walker…two guys I’ve drafted each of the past three years. Will they ever become stars?
|
| 4:59 |
: No and Maybe
|
| 5:00 |
: Hi there Brad, big fan, I’m a student at Fordham University. I run the SABR affiliate(One of two collegiate affiliates in the country). I was wondering if you had any words of advice on projects or getting work published. We are trying to get a website started so we can more easily compile our work. You and all the guys at Fangraphs are a huge inspiration to us! Thanks.
|
| 5:01 |
: Hey Jacob, shoot me an email (see my signature at the bottom of the post), and I’ll see if some of the guys have ideas.
|
| 5:01 |
: How much surplus does a $5 Olson have in ottoneu 5×5?
|
| 5:01 |
: Remains to be seen. Between none and $25
|
| 5:01 |
: I get the road Rockies today and the Padres in my last start. Woo!
|
| 5:02 |
: I think you go with Turner because of the massive advantage in SB.
|
| 5:02 |
: That was part of my thinking too
|
| 5:02 |
: SB is such a hard category to manage if you don’t have a stud like Turner
|
| 5:02 |
: Does Russell Martin make for a better bench bat in my obp al-only than Kendrys given he can fill in at c and at corner?
|
| 5:02 |
: I don’t think so
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| 5:02 |
: I’m not expecting anything out of Martin down the stretch
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| 5:02 |
: plus frequent rest
|
| 5:03 |
: Justin Bour or Joey Gallo ROS in 5×5? Really only need power from whomever I chose
|
| 5:03 |
: Gallo then
|
| 5:03 |
: New approach for Lindor. Should we expect something in between this year and last?
|
| 5:03 |
: Yea, plan on 25 HR
|
| 5:03 |
: Thoughts on Merrifield going into next year? Is this season repeatable? Where does he slot in range-wise for 2Bs? 30+ SBs is a big time output these days
|
| 5:03 |
: It doesn’t smell like it to me
|
| 5:04 |
: He was never viewed as a base thief. I think this is one of those times when a guy runs a lot while earning his every day role, then realizes he doesn’t need to do it anymore
|
| 5:04 |
: helps that he’s a Royal though
|
| 5:04 |
: You know Yost wants to send him
|
| 5:04 |
: Who has a higher ADP next year: Bellinger or Hoskins?
|
| 5:04 |
: These next 2 weeks matter
|
| 5:04 |
: If Hoskins keeps on at this pace, it’s probably him
|
| 5:04 |
: Otherwise, definitely Bellinger
|
| 5:05 |
: if I had to pick one today, Bellinger
|
| 5:05 |
: Who would be your most surprising and most disappointing players from a fantasy perspective for this year?
|
| 5:05 |
: Too many surprises to bother listing them
|
| 5:05 |
: it’s been an absurd season
|
| 5:05 |
: Simply absurd
|
| 5:06 |
: Miggy, Donaldson, Villar, and Story are some of the prime busts
|
| 5:06 |
: I won’t comment on pitchers since “total bust” is part of the price of admission
|
| 5:06 |
: I’d want Hoskins over Bellinger – better plate discipline and park.
|
| 5:07 |
: I don’t disagree re: batting skills
|
| 5:07 |
: although, a smart fantasy player would take a similarly talented veteran with a higher floor and lower ceiling
|
| 5:07 |
: Would you rather keep Lindor or Bregman assuming Bregman is $15 cheaper? OBP league. Seem like similar players but with Lindor having a better hit tool.
|
| 5:07 |
: Lindor
|
| 5:07 |
: People fuss too much about pricing discrepancies.
|
| 5:08 |
: If the question is LindorA or LindorB, then sure, I’ll take the $15 cheaper model
|
| 5:08 |
: Otherwise, take the best player and pay less for the role player
|
| 5:08 |
: FWIW… totally agree with you on Merrifield… none of the stats jump off the page as outliers to me, but just doesn’t feel repeatable
|
| 5:08 |
: What do you think, sit or start Aaron Nola today? SaberSim is only giving him .28 of a win.
|
| 5:09 |
: I think I’d start him. SaberSim still likes him today despite the low chance for a win
|
| 5:09 |
: I think i lost peralta for a little bit, is haniger a viable option for lf
|
| 5:09 |
: Yes
|
| 5:09 |
: Why aren’t teams giving JD Martinez the Bonds treatment with how hot he is?
|
| 5:09 |
: Why aren’t they doing it for Hoskins, Olson, Stanton, Bellinger, Judge, or a dozen other guys
|
| 5:10 |
: oh, Trout
|
| 5:10 |
: Funny how forgettable he can be
|
| 5:10 |
: Anyway, when there’s one Bonds, you can decide to walk him every time
|
| 5:10 |
: When everybody mashes like crazy, I think it makes sense to ask your pitchers to figure it out
|
| 5:11 |
: As the games become more and more meaningful, we should see more managerial intervention
|
| 5:11 |
: One thing I learned this year in fantasy is to pay up for the studs, rather than create a balanced team with a lot of good players, since there are SO many waiver options in a given season to grab.
|
| 5:11 |
: I agree, but to play devil’s advocate, you’ve learned how to play the 2017 season
|
| 5:12 |
: It’s pay $200 for 4 guys, grab a couple closers, and churn through the wire
|
| 5:12 |
: But next year might not resemble 2017
|
| 5:12 |
: 2016 didn’t resemble 2015
|
| 5:12 |
: We all though we had to pay for multiple aces in 2016 based on the lessons of 2015
|
| 5:13 |
: I’ve come to realize that my job is to figure out the 2018 meta, not figure out how to win 2017 in retrospect
|
| 5:13 |
: Should make for an interesting offseason (for me)
|
| 5:13 |
: from a content perspective
|
| 5:14 |
: by the way, I can’t wait for this season to be over. You have no idea how tiring it can get to write the same player picks 10,000 times. Or maybe you do. In any case, real content soon!
|
| 5:14 |
: And with that, I think I’ll wrap this up
|
| 5:14 |
: What’s your overall meta strategy for 2018?
|
| 5:15 |
: Ahem, I have to figure that out
|
| 5:15 |
: Recently, I was asked to do a slow mock starting yesterday
|
| 5:15 |
: for 2018
|
| 5:16 |
: I decided against it because I’m taking a different approach this offseason
|
| 5:16 |
: Every year, I’m asked to set ADPs almost right away
|
| 5:16 |
: I’m going to make somebody else do it. I’ll figure mine out in February
|
| 5:16 |
: When do baseballs start to have actual seams again?
|
| 5:16 |
: Keeper question but it affects ROS. Do you think Weaver is keepable this year? Would get to draft him in last round of draft if kept, keep 5
|
| 5:16 |
: Yes, but he doesn’t seem like a keep 5 kind of pitcher
|
| 5:17 |
: Picked up Junis in my league to stream. Is he a good streaming option? What about Tyler Anderson vs. SD tomorrow?
|
| 5:17 |
: Both are fine
|
| 5:17 |
: Risky too though
|
| 5:17 |
: Generals and stats-only analysts are great at this. Kudos to you for declaring a forward-looking approach
|
| 5:17 |
: My issue with the stats-only guys is with model breaking seasons like this one
|
| 5:18 |
: It’s great for a season that falls within normal parameters
|
| 5:18 |
: but how do you not drown on Carlo Gonzalezes, Gregory Polancos, and Miguel Cabreras if you’re a stats guy this year?
|
| 5:18 |
: Good game folks, see ya one more time next week!
|
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
Nice chat, but Donaldson is actually hitting as well as he ever did. 150 wrc+. The bar for the league is slightly higher, but this might be his best year ever on a rate basis. He is at a nearly 47 hr a year pace if you give him his normal amount of at bats in a season. He still has a 150 wRC+, and just has had bad luck on batted balls w a .286 babip vs a career .300. One of the writers I really like is over at Razzball, and he always says he hopes he finishes the year strong so some sucker picks him early next year. I tend to agree….. But he is finishing the year SOOO strong that with SS eligiblity he might actually be mmaking a push to be drafted as the top SS/3rd baseman next year.