Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 9-24-2019

‘Twas a good chat.

3:56
Brad Johnson: We’ll kick things off in a moment.

3:59
BravesBaseball4Life: In your opinion is this a fair trade: Arendo, S. Marte, Trevor Bauer and Caleb Smith for Trout?  Thinking I may be giving up to much for Trout and this is a keep forever league.  Thanks

4:00
Brad Johnson: I think that’s relatively fair in keep forever

4:00
Brad Johnson: But whether or not you should do it is another question

4:00
Brad Johnson: And that depends on the state of your roster, depth of your league, etc.

4:01
Brad Johnson: To acquire the very best player i.e. the top combination of quality in one roster spot, then you have to give up a lot of quantity. But if you’re playing Phil Ervin and Zach Eflin because of this trade, then it’s probably a mistake.

4:02
Larry: Tommy Edman has carried my team this past month. What would you project for next year from him?

4:02
Brad Johnson: A utility role with relatively bland but passable stats

4:02
Brad Johnson: They’re not going to leave the door open for him to play regularly

4:02
Brad Johnson: He’ll either need to earn it with a fiery spring or wait for injuries like this year.

4:03
Dustin : What would be an effective trade for the dodgers to trade from their depth to acquire an impact right handed bat in the offseason

4:03
Brad Johnson: That’s… difficult. Why not just sign Rendon? He was a passable 2B once upon a time.

4:04
Brad Johnson: And Turner could move into the 1B platoon if that doesn’t work out

4:04
Brad Johnson: plus you have your long term 3B for when Turner’s contract is up or his inevitable IL stint

4:04
Cito’s Mustache: In 10 team roto, 6×6 (OBP & QS) keep 3 and surrender next year’s draft pick.. I need to choose between: Yelich (3rd rounder), Rendon (5th), Buehler (24th), Ketel (25th), Semien (25th). Thanks, Brad.

4:05
Brad Johnson: Yelich pretty clearly. Hard to pass on Buehler at that value.

4:05
Brad Johnson: I would wait to see where Rendon lands before making the decision on the final spot

4:06
Brad Johnson: One concern I have about Marte and Semien specifically is how their stats would react to a freshly-squeezed (i.e. de-juiced) baseball.

4:07
Brad Johnson: brb

4:08
Dylan: I have two SP slots in Ottoneu tonight for Odirizzi, Gray, and Syndergaard. I feel good about Odirizzi against DET, but do I go with Thor or Gray in the other spot?

4:08
Brad Johnson: Too bad you can only use 2. Those are all money matchups

4:09
Brad Johnson: I don’t think you can go wrong, they were all projected similarly by SaberSim and I don’t disagree

4:09
Brad Johnson: And by not going wrong, I mean any process you use is fine. It could still blow up

4:09
AC: Tight H2H 5×5 finals, with ERA, W and Ks all closely contested.  I set up with Gray/Nola/Bailey/Merrill Kelly/Civale/Glasnow/Manaea and any second starts on Sunday, and I have 2 adds to use.  Opponent has Alcantara/Bumgarner/Anibal/Stras/Dakota Hudson/Verlander and any second starts on Sunday, with 5 adds left to use.  1) Any obvious sits from my group, and 2) strategically is it even worth chasing more starts via faab (Wed & Fri runs) when my opponent can flood the zone if he chooses, and maybe instead try to nail down ERA with only the best of my SPs and work on holding other categories?

4:11
Brad Johnson: I don’t think any of those are sits with the possible exception of kelly. However, I would approach the early portion of the contest as a volume game and adjust from there.

4:11
Brad Johnson: You don’t want to assume a strategy for your opponent then get caught regretting a lost opportunity

4:11
Dustin : Would the redsox trade betts for verdugo?  I agree I think the dodgers should absolutley sign rendon but it seems like the front office doesnt like to spend money in FA

4:12
Brad Johnson: A package involving Verdugo should work for Betts. But would the Dodgers do that? I doubt it.

4:12
Dustin : Would the indians trade lindor for seager and a good prospect like josiah gray?

4:13
Brad Johnson: The Indians are willing to make these sorts of trades, but I don’t think the specific players you mentioned make much sense here. More like Lux, Verdugo, and May. Or something like that.

4:13
Brad Johnson: You’re looking too big though

4:14
Brad Johnson: For elite players on other teams, it’s necessary to pay a premium. The Dodgers front office would much rather chase value from a Mark Canha-like player who costs next-to-nothing to acquire

4:14
Brad Johnson: Which is why I thought free agency made more sense for them

4:14
Brad Johnson: I mean, they tried to do this with Pollock. Maybe he rebounds next year

4:14
Larry: Nelson Cruz has 400HRs how many will he finish with?

4:15
Brad Johnson: I want him to get to 500, but I’ll lay a line at 447.

4:15
Ham: Brad, trying to decide my last keeper in a 12tm roto keep4 (already keeping Betts, Story, and Cole). Who do you have between Verlander and Rendon? An easy problem to have, but still, a problem. Everyone can be kept for 3 more years

4:15
Brad Johnson: I typically prefer to invest long term in bats.

4:16
Brad Johnson: However, there is some merit to trying to dominate pitching while backfilling bats. Especially if you think the juiced ball is here to stay

4:16
Cito’s Mustache: I asked Jeff on Sunday if he thought the Reds would give Gausman a look in the rotation next year and he said yeah but probably ends up in the pen where he belongs. Do you share that assessment? I’m wondering if he’s cuttable in 14-team H2H dynasty points leagues.

4:16
Brad Johnson: Pretty much

4:16
Brad Johnson: I’m not convinced Gausman makes it through the winter with them

4:17
Brad Johnson: He’s due to earn over $10MM in arbitration. That’s a non-tender imo

4:17
Brad Johnson: An EASY non-tender in fact.

4:17
Kdog: Which of these dudes bust outs seems most legit?: Semien, Carlos Santana, Soler. (asking for a friend trying to choose a final keeper)

4:17
Brad Johnson: That’s open to interpretation

4:18
Brad Johnson: If you’re asking – who is least affected by the baseball, I think it’s Soler

4:18
Brad Johnson: But I like Semien and Santana more as baseball players

4:19
Brad Johnson: Soler could easily be a 30 HR, .290 OBP guy and that’s pretty blah. Especially since the Royals won’t help him out with a supporting cast

4:19
Ty: Austin Hays: Outlook for next year?  Looking at him in a keep forever league, obviously was a big time prospect a couple years ago but minor league numbers this year were underwhelming

4:20
Brad Johnson: If the opportunity cost is modest, then I don’t mind taking a flier on him. Especially with the fiery finish perhaps carrying over into 2020

4:20
Mmm… Kay: Thanks for all the guidance this year!

4:20
Mmm… Kay: I’m angry that the Jays aren’t throwing Kay behind an opener today, but not as angry as I am that my season is coming down to such a terrible streaming option.

4:20
Brad Johnson: I like Kay for long term purposes. I think he could work

4:21
Brad Johnson: But he’s obviously not there yet.

4:21
Guest: Darvish has to be commanding a #1 starter price next year, right?  If so, do you pay it?

4:21
Brad Johnson: Pretty much

4:21
Turd Ferguson: Endgame was vastly overrated.  Just watch the last 45 minutes and you’ll be fine.  Don’t waste three full hours of your life on it.  Wasn’t terrible, but wasn’t what it was hyped up to be either.  Just okay IMO.

4:21
brad: who gets the most Mets’ saves in 2020?  Diaz? Lugo? Field?

4:21
Brad Johnson: I’ll bet on Diaz

4:21
Larry Hutz: Looking at 2020 MI pickup for 5×5: Nico or Hampson?

4:22
Brad Johnson: My gut waffled 3 times in 30 seconds

4:22
Brad Johnson: Lemme investigate

4:22
Brad Johnson: So Hampson’s a guy I can take a mini-victory lap on

4:22
Brad Johnson: I’ve always been convinced he’s a utility guy

4:23
Brad Johnson: It’s telling that Coors Field + juicy ball = 6 HR in 293 PA

4:23
Brad Johnson: Plus his passivity has led to way too many strikeouts for his profile

4:23
Brad Johnson: He’s in need of a serious breakout to be 12-team mixed relevant

4:23
Brad Johnson: Even with Coors on his side

4:24
Brad Johnson: That said, the 20+ SB speed gives him a path to stardom

4:24
Brad Johnson: As for Hoerner, I don’t really expect to see him in the majors much next year

4:24
Brad Johnson: He only made it this year because disaster struck

4:24
Chat Mapman: How much has the cratering of Aquino and Will Smith (LAD) affected their 2020 value from 3 weeks ago?

4:25
Brad Johnson: Not at all imo

4:25
Brad Johnson: At least not their true, rational valuations

4:25
Brad Johnson: If they had kept popping extreme HR/FB, then we would have had some outlier owners taking them super early

4:25
DH: Do you see any of the big name faltering closers (i.e. Diaz, Kimbrel, Jansen) bouncing back next year?

4:26
Brad Johnson: In general, it’s smart to bet on these slumpy relievers. They don’t always rebound, nor can I even say they’ll behave predictably. But the general trend is for skills to assert themselves. And these are very skilled pitchers.

4:27
Kdog: BTW: I won a few leagues this year and can’t thank you dudes enough for droppin the wisdom every week…you and paul especially. Cheers.

4:27
Brad Johnson: Congrats!

4:27
Dustin : Will smith seems to have consistently good at bats and is a plus defensive catcher. This leaves keibert ruiz largely expendable. What kind of big league talent could a prospect of his caliber bring back to the dodgers?

4:27
Brad Johnson: Knowing the Dodgers, the plan is to have them both on the same roster

4:27
Brad Johnson: He could be a big part of a major trade acquisition.

4:28
Brad Johnson: I think that makes the most sense for mid-2020 or mid-2021 based upon need

4:28
Dustin : Why doesnt mike clevinger get more recognition? Hes got top 5 stuff in the league and started throwing 97 this year

4:28
Brad Johnson: Excellent question. I have no answers.

4:28
WalkTall: Start DeSclafani @ PIT on Thursday with confidence?

4:28
Brad Johnson: I can’t even muster confidence for a Gerrit Cole start.

4:28
Brad Johnson: Or put another way, I was way more confident about Steven Matz against the Marlins yesterday

4:29
Brad Johnson: But I would start DeScla

4:29
James Karinchak: Any chance I become the main set up guy for Cleveland next year and beyond?

4:29
Brad Johnson: Yes, a chance for sure. Perhaps even the closer, although you’re a little gimmicky

4:29
Big Balls: Is the juiced ball sticking around next season? If so, how does it impact your draft strategy? deprioritize power because everyone hits HR? or still seek out a premium power bat to stay ahead in that category?

4:30
Brad Johnson: We have no way of knowing.

4:30
Brad Johnson: With the juiced ball, we almost can’t use players like Mallex Smith and expect to win

4:30
Brad Johnson: But if it’s de-juiced, then he might be part of a winning formula

4:31
Brad Johnson: The state of the ball will be the subject of many (of my) offseason articles

4:31
Freedom: Shopping aquino in deep dynasty league, looking for a prospect. How high can I reasonably ask? Top 20? 50?

4:31
Brad Johnson: Start aggressive and adjust downwards

4:31
Dustin : Played with Josh Rojas at Hawaii. Do the dbacks view him as a long term utility guy? Put up stupid stats in the minors this year and can play everywhere

4:31
Brad Johnson: I haven’t talked to anyone with the DBacks, but my impression is they plan to play him

4:32
Brad Johnson: I expect they like the utility as a fallback option

4:32
Hakaida: What makes more sense in a 12 team keep forever league. 10 keepers or 8 keepers with the ability to trade for 2 more in the offseason?

4:32
Brad Johnson: My advice for this is to judge the quality of the owners in your league

4:32
Brad Johnson: The higher the quality, the more complex you can get

4:33
Brad Johnson: If it’s fairly low quality, then very few (or no) keeps is best

4:33
Brad Johnson: In this case, the 8-keep scenario is higher difficulty

4:33
BravesBaseball4Life: We keep five pitchers and five hitters.  I’m keeping Buehler, Bieber, deGrom, Corbin, Cole Mondesi, Bogaerts, Bellinger and Guerero.  I’m going to have to trade or cut Rosario, Aquino, K. Marte, Abreu, Bauer, German, Greinke and Caleb Smith.

4:34
Brad Johnson: this was in response to the very first question about a Mike Trout trade. I’d definitely do it in this case. No brainer.

4:34
Brad Johnson: You’re literally trading nothing for him.

4:34
Wade into the Miley: No way I can start the Yipping Wade Miley, even against AAA-Angels this week, right? (AL only)

4:34
Brad Johnson: You’d have to be pretty desperate

4:35
WalkTall: Is it too soon to judge the stickiness of the adjustments Merrill Kelly supposedly made in late August that appear to have given him an extra tick or two on his fastball?

4:35
Brad Johnson: No, not necessarily

4:35
Brad Johnson: Though you should remember that pitcher velocity does naturally increase a bit throughout the season. And the winter can undo some positive changes.

4:35
Ryan: is Jon Berti a 130 gp super utility guy next year?

4:36
Brad Johnson: Honestly, unless their winter goes a lot differently than I expect, he’s probably an everyday guy

4:36
Brad Johnson: Moving around as needed

4:36
Dustin : Based on the stats, seems like wander franco is outperforming vlad jr at the same age and plays a premium defensive position. Unheard of BB, K, and iso rates for an 18 year old. Have you seen him play? What are your thoughts of drafting him in a keeper league next year. How high would you go

4:36
Brad Johnson: I’d need to know a lot more about your context to advise when

4:36
Brad Johnson: Franco IS the best prospect since Vladito

4:37
Brad Johnson: And quite possibly better

4:37
Cito’s Mustache: In a roto league my ERA sits at 3.50 and the guy ahead of me at 3.46. Bailey has a good matchup tonight vs LAA but I should probably sit him anyway, right?

4:38
Brad Johnson: Unless that guy is using Eric Skoglund, you’re unlikely to catch him. Especially with a passive strategy. I’d probably use Bailey.

4:38
Brad Johnson: But it also depends on other categories

4:40
Dustin : If youre a major league GM, who would you rather build around, acuna or soto. I feel like soto is a much better hitter and younger

4:41
Brad Johnson: They’re both so young that age is scarcely a consideration

4:41
Brad Johnson: And if we get to consider contract, the Braves stole Acuna’s future for a song.

4:42
BravesBaseball4Life: If I package more players together to get eight Acuno or Betts, who should I trade between Mondesi and Bogaerts?  Thanks

4:42
Brad Johnson: The answer might just be “whoever lets you complete a deal most efficiently”

4:43
Brad Johnson: My instinct is to keep Mondesi’s league-leading SBs with solid power

4:43
Chas: Any players you’re targeting in 2020? So far, I’ve got Buxton, Yarbrough, Montas, Puk and Luzardo on my notepad.

4:43
Brad Johnson: I haven’t gotten that far. I have ideas I’m targeting.

4:43
Brad Johnson: And we’ll talk about them in due time

4:43
roster headaches: in a 14tm H2H final, would you drop Eric Hosmer for Trent Grishim, mainly for the brewer’s weekend series at Coors?

4:43
Brad Johnson: Yes

4:43
Ryan: Im a firm believer in the $1 reliever strategy, but a 3$ Pressley, Anderson and T. Rodgers all have to be kept in an fangraphs points league right?

4:43
Brad Johnson: They are keepers

4:44
Brad Johnson: But that doesn’t mean YOU have to keep them

4:44
Roy: Hi, looking at keepers for next year, is it worth keeping Yordan Alvarez with Shohei Ohtani? Worried about clogging my 1 utility slot with them, when I could keep someone like Kepler or Conforto or W. Calhoun. Also Lucas Giolito or Jose Berrios? Espn points league similar to ottoneu

4:44
Brad Johnson: You have to keep Yordan

4:45
Brad Johnson: He has 10 games in the OF. Is ESPN’s cutoff 20 games?

4:45
Ham: Brad, thanks for doing these chats! In your mind, what are the odds that MLB de-juices the ball next season?

4:45
Brad Johnson: I think it’s better than 50%

4:45
Brad Johnson: But that’s just one man’s guess

4:46
Brad Johnson: Going back to the Alvarez/Ohtani question, you could consider taking Conforto, Kepler, or Giolito over Ohtani.

4:46
Brad Johnson: And if you’re allowed to trade, then I would trade.

4:46
Ryan: Joe Altuve played himself to being worth 40$ next season if you still have over 120$ in cap space correct?

4:46
Brad Johnson: Yea, I’d keep him

4:47
Brad Johnson: Barring a better alternative

4:47
Anonymous: How big of a bump does Biggio get in OBP? (Votto / Gallo or more Carpenter / Choo tier)  Also, does his late-season surge torpedo lock rational bidders out when helium sets in

4:47
Brad Johnson: Carp/Choo is a better example. Although Votto’s there too now.

4:47
Brad Johnson: I think Soto/Gallo/Harper are the elite examples

4:48
Brad Johnson: I do think there’s a chance he’ll shoot beyond rosterable ADP

4:48
Brad Johnson: But… being a Blue Jay could help us

4:48
Brad Johnson: My guess is industry leagues and similar will be all over Biggio but he’ll fall through the cracks in home leagues

4:49
OddBall Herrera: Do you believe Meadows’ home run totals are legit and not the product of a couple super hot streaks?  I’m inclined to bet on his HR numbers going down in 2020 rather than up

4:49
Brad Johnson: Regression is the safe bet, yes

4:49
Brad Johnson: It might be that he’s just a streaky hitter. Kinda Conforto-like.

4:50
Brad Johnson: Or maybe he adjusts and turns into a superstar (if he isn’t already)

4:50
Brad Johnson: Maybe the cold snaps were injury fueled

4:50
Brad Johnson: As you can see, many angles for speculation

4:50
Guest: Crazy prediction? Guerrero costs hugely more than J.D. Davis next year, but J.D. Davis actually produces the numbers Guerrero owners were hoping for

4:50
Brad Johnson: First bold prediction 2020

4:50
Brad Johnson: Too bad you registered as Guest

4:51
Low-Odds Lenny: At this point, is Wil Myers a Hail Mary pass? The homers in 2016-17 lloked good, but this is a second poor year in a row.

4:51
Brad Johnson: All those injuries have possibly caused him to prematurely age out of relevance

4:52
Anonymous: Positional flexibility worth anything next year, or still flat across the diamond like 2019 draft day?

4:52
Brad Johnson: Well, I wouldn’t say that’s true. Flexibility is still hugely useful even if it is pretty common

4:52
Brad Johnson: It’ll remain common and important.

4:52
Brad Johnson: If you mean position scarcity, I plan to treat 2020 as a no-scarcity environment

4:52
Brad Johnson: But I will verify that at some point.

4:53
Brad Johnson: Or maybe just trust Jeff Z to do it for me

4:53
Dylan from Denver: help me with keepers for next year(with their keeper value – pick 4)…12 team H2H, 6×6 with OPS, K9 WHIP….Bichette (15th), A Meadows (16th), Eloy (12th), Verlander (2nd). E Suarez  (11th), Bregman (9th) McNeil (12th)…gotta go Bregman, Eloy,

4:53
Brad Johnson: Hard to pass on Suarez at that value

4:54
Brad Johnson: I’d keep an open mind on the fourth while leaning Meadows

4:54
Mmm… Kay: Follow-up: Kay just got scratched from the start, so all my anger at the situation was wasted. Wasted!

4:54
Ham: How do you deal with over turnover in your home leagues? We’ve got a couple openings, and I’m trying to fill them with people some of us know in person…but it’s hard :O

4:55
Brad Johnson: Become a professional fantasy baseball writer than append advertisements to your blog posts.

4:55
Brad Johnson: That’s what I do 🙂

4:55
Brad Johnson: But in all seriousness, if you can’t find people you know, there are some nice resources out there like Reddit or my BaseballATeam Patreon

4:55
Brad Johnson: We have a Discord channel called “League Openings”

4:56
Anonymous: high or low on Aristides Aquino in round 10 (ADP 114) (pending roster construction and power needs of course)

4:56
Brad Johnson: Smells high, but I’m not prepped for 2020 drafts yet

4:56
Brad Johnson: I could be wrong

4:56
Ryan: solid shameless plug

4:56
Brad Johnson: I thought so

4:57
Brad Johnson: I didn’t even post a link! I probably should have posted a link. Here’s a link:

4:58
Brad Johnson: Important question: what’s the best way to disseminate invitations to my patreon at First Pitch AZ?

4:58
Brad Johnson:

Are you coming to First Pitch AZ?

yes (10.0% | 1 vote)
 
no (40.0% | 4 votes)
 
huh? (50.0% | 5 votes)
 

Total Votes: 10
4:58
Anonymous: Jo Adell a no-brainer call up after Super 2 deadline 2020?

4:59
Brad Johnson: I mean, if they want to finally win something, probably

4:59
Brad Johnson: Sooner even

4:59
Brad Johnson: Perhaps they’ll sign some useful free agents though and I’ll change my opinion

4:59
Brad Johnson: I don’t actually see Adell as can’t-miss fwiw

5:00
Brad Johnson: (though I said the same about Tatis)

5:00
Brad Johnson: time to wrap it up. My belly wants attention.

5:00
Ryan: Re: Adell, he was 0-19 in AFL as of yesterday.

5:00
Howie Kendrick Lamar: Pick one closer to drop in a redraft: Rogers, Pagan, Jairo Diaz, Ian Kennedy

5:00
Brad Johnson: This is a trap right?

5:01
Brad Johnson: You’re actually Paul Sporer and if I don’t say Jairo Diaz, I’m fired. Right?

5:01
Ken Giles Right Hook: Vlad Jr is talking about bulking or toning up this offseason. Good, bad or meh news?

5:01
Brad Johnson: Mixed.

5:02
Brad Johnson: I would prefer for him to increase the quality of his workouts and diet without going absolutely nuts.

5:02
Brad Johnson: And to continually do so over many years.

5:03
Brad Johnson: Going all out could be detrimental. Or very good. We’ll construct a narrative after the fact to make it seem like we know what we’re talking about

5:03
Anonymous: FMK: Will Smith, Will Smith and Will Smith.

5:03
Howie Kendrick Lamar: Thoughts on streaming Heaney tomorrow at OAK? He’s had a rough September but the K’s keep coming

5:03
Brad Johnson: Yea, if you need Ks, you’ll get ’em

5:03
Brad Johnson: The rest is dangerous

5:04
Howie Kendrick Lamar: In a redraft, can I drop Cole after today’s start to stream someone else? Or do I have to hold him in case he gets a few innings on Sunday?

5:04
Brad Johnson: I think you can make that an active spot. Can you tip off a non-rival to grab him?

5:04
Anthony Rizzo’s Ankle: Who benefits the most from signing Cole as a FA?

5:04
Brad Johnson: The Angels?

5:04
Brad Johnson: Phillies?

5:05
Brad Johnson: Some team that’s not winning their division by 85 games (i.e. the Dodgers, Astros, Yankees, etc.)

5:05
David: In a VERY broad statistical set – it’s like 9×9 – who would you keep from this group of players at their respective round values? I can only keep three.

Yelich at round 3
Devers at round 10
Alonso at round 24
Suarez at round 25

Feels like it should be Devers, Alonso and Suarez, but the allure of Yelich at a round 3 value is making me consider passing Devers, especially with Suarez there.

5:06
Brad Johnson: I don’t think you can pass a 9-cat (I assume) player like Yelich

5:06
Brad Johnson: I think you make the hard decision to cut Alonso or Suarez. They’re the least well-rounded.

5:06
Brad Johnson: But I’d need to know a lot more

5:06
Brad Johnson: And on that note, it’s time to bid y’all adieu.

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